Never too Early to Talk Draft

[elguapo]

How upset would you be if Holmes drafted one of those DL at Bo.6 and then used No.18 and either pick No.55 or pick No.81 to move up into that 10-15 range to draft Gonzalez?

Making that trade up theoretically gives you two, on paper only, elite capable starters.

BTW, I'm all for more picks or not losing a pick, but this is a conundrum of sorts.

Furthermore, if Holmes can upgrade his Edge rushers, then he should do exactly that. Houston showed last year he can be a great pass rush specialist, but he's highly questionable when it comes to run defending. Tyree Wilson is the better run defender between he and Houston from a CFB prospect level. Anderson has had a high rate of missed tackles, but he's still better than Houston at the CFB level.

I think gonzalez at 6 and then one of those DL at 18 is more likely and without losing capitol. Many mocks have Bresee slipping to 18 to us which is great. I am not sold on Kancey, he was decent this year but he has all the makings of a work out monster bust

 

[Edonidd]

How upset would you be if Holmes drafted one of those DL at Bo.6 and then used No.18 and either pick No.55 or pick No.81 to move up into that 10-15 range to draft Gonzalez?

Making that trade up theoretically gives you two, on paper only, elite capable starters.

BTW, I'm all for more picks or not losing a pick, but this is a conundrum of sorts.

Furthermore, if Holmes can upgrade his Edge rushers, then he should do exactly that. Houston showed last year he can be a great pass rush specialist, but he's highly questionable when it comes to run defending. Tyree Wilson is the better run defender between he and Houston from a CFB prospect level. Anderson has had a high rate of missed tackles, but he's still better than Houston at the CFB level.

I'll preface this by saying I've never been great at picking DB's, but I don't see that move as taking advantage of this draft.

I think there's a clear cut 5 guys who are just a full level above the next group of guys. (Anderson, Carter, Young, Stroud, and Richardson)
But then there's a solid 3-5 ish guys that are in that next tier. (Wilson, Witherspoon, Levis, Paris Johnson who is gonna be an all pro LT and for some reason isnt getting talked about)
There are probably 10-15 guys in that third tier. He's getting hype from his combine, but I don't think Gonzalez at 10 or so is a significantly better prospect that Porter who could be there at 18.
Then I feel like guys from about the 20ish to about 45 ish are all really close in that 4th tier of prospects. Including Forbes who plays exactly like Dre Bly... our new DB coach. Plus like ive said Phillips III is one of the two players in this draft that I want the most (along with Will Anderson)

For this draft I would love to try and move around and get down from 18 but up from 55 and 81. Try and get 3 picks in the mid 20-mid 40 area. And take 2 CB's, unless we got Witherspoon at 6. Only 1 more in that case.

 

[Edonidd]

Aaron Glenn sounds optimistic but realistic about Lions CB Jeff Okudah

Glenn acknowledged that Okudah has improved but “he still has a ways to go”

lionswire.usatoday.com

“He still has a ways to go. He came in and got hurt his first year. Then obviously he got hurt his second year. He had a chance to really play this year and he understands there’s always going to be competition and we’re always going to create that competition.”

The competition for Okudah figures to be tougher than ever before. Detroit is expected to be in the market for a veteran free agent at cornerback. There will be opportunities in the upcoming draft too, with a class loaded with talent and upside.

Okudah has already fallen behind 2021 undrafted rookie Jerry Jacobs in the outside CB pecking order, and he was also benched late in the year in favor of journeyman Mike Hughes.

Okudah's best couple games came when he was playing almost a hybrid monster back type role. I wonder if they had the bodies where they could afford not to play him at CB if he wouldn't be a better fit as a Safety? Maybe then he could afford to put on another 8-10 pounds or so, and see if the extra weight helped him at all durability wise? But we're probably too poor in run defense to play 2 coverage guys at safety. We don't necessarily need an in the box safety to pair with Joseph, but at the very least he would have to be above average in run support.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

He's getting hype from his combine.

I completely disagree with this statement.
He was getting hype long before the combine.

I don't think Gonzalez at 10 or so is a significantly better prospect that Porter who could be there at 18.

Could be correct on this part.

Porter and Gonzalez both long-armed CB the former 34" and yes that truly can make a difference in coverage.
Porter is the more aggressive while staying in phase.

Gonzalez is the absolute best in this class with smooth transitions that you hardly notice it unless you're really paying attention. His hips are so fluid whether in back pedal or transitioning with the WR at his stem. Gonzalez isn't the grabby CB that you'll see in Witherspoon and Porter and Ringo and Banks and Cam Smith. He is clearly head and shoulders above everyone else in not panicking and this is why many will claim he has more finesse to him.

Just my take.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

For this draft I would love to try and move around and get down from 18 but up from 55 and 81. Try and get 3 picks in the mid 20-mid 40 area.

100% AGREE.

Phillips III is one of the two players in this draft that I want the most (along with Will Anderson)

I too would rather have Edge Will Anderson more than any other player in this draft.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Okudah's best couple games came when he was playing almost a hybrid monster back type role. I wonder if they had the bodies where they could afford not to play him at CB if he wouldn't be a better fit as a Safety? Maybe then he could afford to put on another 8-10 pounds or so, and see if the extra weight helped him at all durability wise? But we're probably too poor in run defense to play 2 coverage guys at safety. We don't necessarily need an in the box safety to pair with Joseph, but at the very least he would have to be above average in run support.

You beat me to the punch on this one. I kind of paraphrased your statement in another thread prior to reading this thread. I also believe Okudah would be better served playing more dime LB/Robber - not just for the QB but also RB - heavy/big slot. Bottom line is that Okudah played his best in limited snaps in that nickel/slot/dime LB role last season.

In an article by Lions Wire/USAToday last fall, Okudah had stated in an interview that he had never played safety at any level and that he wasn't going to do that. His quote was, "I'm a CB and always will be one". Mind you I'm paraphrasing his statement then, but I'm sure I could locate it.

 

[broncosmitty]

You beat me to the punch on this one. I kind of paraphrased your statement in another thread prior to reading this thread. I also believe Okudah would be better served playing more dime LB/Robber - not just for the QB but also RB - heavy/big slot. Bottom line is that Okudah played his best in limited snaps in that nickel/slot/dime LB role last season.

In an article by Lions Wire/USAToday last fall, Okudah had stated in an interview that he had never played safety at any level and that he wasn't going to do that. His quote was, "I'm a CB and always will be one". Mind you I'm paraphrasing his statement then, but I'm sure I could locate it.

Big difference between average starting corner money and average starting safety money. Same as the tag price.

He’d be crazy to have that conversation prior to signing his second deal.

And with Dre Bly as his position coach, I don’t see that conversation getting off the ground anyway. He’s going to tell guys to go get there’s. And he’s going to help them do it.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Big difference between average starting corner money and average starting safety money. Same as the tag price.

He’d be crazy to have that conversation prior to signing his second deal.

And with Dre Bly as his position coach, I don’t see that conversation getting off the ground anyway. He’s going to tell guys to go get there’s. And he’s going to help them do it.

Oh, I get it from the perspective in terms of future money lost or more or less giving up on himself as an NFL CB as he isn't going to do that now before his first contract ends. Hell, even if he walks next year as an UFA, he'll be looking for some team to give him a chance at outside CB until there are no more chances available. However, there will come a time when he'll have to come to terms that he most likely will never be a quality outside CB.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I'll put Okudah's ability in these terms. He has to play press-man coverage and not off-coverage or bail as he doesn't possess the juice in catch up mode nor does he possess the instincts or traits to play in the latter two techniques.

His traits portray more nickel/slot CB than any other. He's a good run defender in the box and mostly able to stay with TE/RB. He can not stay with twitchy, quick or explosive burst type of receivers off the L.O.S.

He's a pure nickel/slot CB with limitations.

 

[elguapo]

 

[elguapo]

 

[Old Lion]

Shoot, Panthers have a competitive team. O-Line with last year's pick at OT Ekwonu, OT Moton, C Elflein, WR Terrace Marshall and Shenault and that defense with Burns, Gross-Matos, Derrick Brown, Shaq, Jaycee Horn, Jeremy Chin.

They have to be gunning for CJ Stroud. He arguably has the lowest ceiling of the so-called top 4 - him, Young, Richardson and Levi - but also the highest floor of all of them. I discount Bryce due to his height and weight and that damn shoulder injury. I still wouldn't draft Bryce Young because he was never the same in 2022 at any point even before the injury at Arkansas. Saban stated he had dealt with the shoulder injury prior so that has me extremely concerned. It damn for sure wasn't always on his WR corps even though they all mostly sucked and then 4 of them transferred in the off-season.

Not everyone has as low opinion of AR15 as you guys. If you are going to trade your draft for the number 1 pick it wont be for a low ceiling guy. I would be shocked if it is not AR15.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Not everyone has as low opinion of AR15 as you guys.

It's not a "you guy's".
It's a me only concern.

 

[Mebert]

It's not a "you guy's".
It's a me only concern.

I think everyone agrees on AR15, the only difference is risk tolerance. How willing are you to buy a lottery ticket?

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I think everyone agrees on AR15, the only difference is risk tolerance. How willing are you to buy a lottery ticket?

I'm not willing to walk 17 miles to do such a thing.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I've been perusing trends in BH first two drafts from the defensive side of the ball, and it appears that if a player isn't near elite or for damn sure above average at defending the run and tackling for day 1 and day 2 picks, then you're likely not to be drafted by him. I have to dig deeper into this though. Hutch, Paschal, Onwuzurike, McNeill, Joseph and Lucas all meet these standards. Melifonwu is the outlier here so far. McNeill had one year, his junior year, where he slipped up. It also doesn't matter what defensive position a player plays.

I forgot to check in on Rodriguez and Houston. Houston was above average at both run defending and tackling at Jackson State, however as an ILB at Florida he was abysmal. Rodrigo struggled his last 3 years at tackling - scored in the 60's - but he was average to above average 3/5 years at run defending.

This could spell trouble for Tyree Wilson for his 2021 and 2020 seasons and Will Anderson for 2022 and 2020 seasons.

If this trend holds true then this would toss out Lukas Van Ness, Will McDonald, Isaiah McGuire, Myles Murphy, Adebawore, Keion White, BJ Ojulari and Yaya Diaby.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Following up on my above post #536 the following are players that fit the run defending, tackling portion of the prospect's profiles.

Not in any order

DT - in
Moro Ojomo
Jalen Redmund - 50 grade in tackling 2022 but above average 2021/2019 - missed 2020.
Byron Young
Mazi Smith
Karl Brooks - I actually view Brooks as a 3-4 Base 5/4i-tech.

Probable Out - Keeanu Benton, Keondre Coburn, Siaki Ika, Zach Pickens, Brian Bresee

DE/Edge - in
Zach Harrison
Tuli Tuipulotu - he had a 38 grade for tackling in 2022, but he was above average in 2021/2020
Tyree Wilson? - His tackling was abysmal in 2021/2020 (50/48-grade) as was his run defending in 2020 (47- grade) 2022 RDEF/TCKL (73/73)
Will Anderson - He had a missed tackle rate of 24% in 2022 (47-grade). RDEF in 2022/2021 Elite/near Elite

Probable Out - Derrick Hall, Will McDonald, Myle Murphy, Lukas Van Ness, Adebawore, Keion White, Isaiah McGuire

ILB - in
Jack Campbell
Sir Vocea
Ivan Pace
Dorian Williams
DeMarvion Overshown - made + strides in 2022 but 2021/2020 were horrific.

Probable Out - Sewell, Cam Jones, Daiyan Henley, Henry To'o To'o

CB - in - Scheme fit is the major question after these traits.
Witherspoon
E. Forbes
Terell Smith
Riley Moss - He has been the best graded CB in the nation during the last 4-years as a whole - He's likely a Cover/3 CB
Gonzalez
Julius Brents
Jartavius Martin
Brian Branch
DJ Turner
Kelee Ringo

Porter Jr. and Deonte Banks were both horrible in RDEF in 2022 and Porter Jr. has become worse since Frosh year as has his tackling.

Probable Out - T. Stevenson, D. Rush, Cam Smith and more than likely Porter Jr.

Safety - in
K. Merriweather
B. Branch
Jartavius Martin
A. Johnson
J. Robinson
J. Battle

Probable Out - S. Brown, J. Brown, Chris Smith, R. Torrence, J. Hicks, D. Hellams

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

^^^^ I took a stab at Offensive Line also, but that's more than a little bit ridiculous as Penei is on a planet not named yet

Player's BH may be interested in.

OT - TBH, I didn't check scheme fit as far as zone based only or Gap/Power-scheme with sprinkles of Inside Zone which is what Lions operate out of. These players would be considered starting out inside at OG initially.

A. Harrison
W. McClendon - He's on the light side and loses interest as the game goes on but has been rock solid for 3-years.
D. Wright - He was horrible in 2021/2020 and then broke out in 2022. He's not a 1st round talent at all but some team might take the bait.
M. Bergeron - I like this player except he had 19 penalties combined in 21/20 and more probable to be there in 2nd round.
J. McFadden - He's on the short side being 6' 2". He can play down to the competition.
C. Warren - He was injured after 4 games last year but he's big, long-armed and destined for late day 3.
T. Steen - He's also a late day 3 player, however once again someone may bite earlier. he could be a solid LG.

OG - that should appeal to BH and Fraley

S. Avila - He has played LG and C
E. Ekiyor - A nasty demeanor and heavy-handed run blocker that's more than efficient at pass-protection. 3-years at RG.
J. Patterson - Played LG last year and C prior to that 21/20/19. His worst season was 22 and it was still above average.
M. Curtis - Tenn/Chattanooga has been near elite these past two seasons in RBLK/PBLK. Small school competition though - Nate Davis?
S. Sow - EMU and has 3440 snaps in 5 years as a LG/RG. Only 9-sacks and 10-penalties in 5 years. He has been upper level consistent.
O. Torrence - We all are familiar with him, but he has never given up a sack in his 4-year career. O penalties last year/10 in 3-years prior.

C - Ragnow isn't going anywhere but there is no one behind him and he had the foot injury in 2022. Toe surgery in 21.

J. Tippman - He's 6'6 320 lbs. and only played C and for just 2-years. He's a mauler and nasty. 2=sacks given up and 9-penalties in 2-years
J. Michael Schmitz - He was down 20 lbs. at the combine. He's near elite and 4-years' experience. 2-sacks/9-penalties in 4-years

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

The 2nd first round pick and other picks by this guy must've raised some eyebrows.

The Draft Network

TDN

thedraftnetwork.com

6. Detroit Lions​

Jalen Carter IDL, Georgia​

18. Detroit Lions​

Julius Brents CB, Kansas State​

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

The Draft Network

TDN

thedraftnetwork.com