Alex Smith

[MHSL82]

http://arrowheadaddict.com/2014/02/10/look-nfl-qb-contracts-alex-smith-expect/

Fan (not mine or the team) Suggestion:

 

[MHSL82]

From the article above (there's more rationale in the article, this part pertains to Smith more):

First off, I think the averages are a good place to start. Starting QBs that signed new contracts were on average 29.6 years old (Alex Smith is 29 and will turn 30 before the season starts) and signed a deal for 4.8 years. In fact, 11 of the 16 contracts signed were for 5+ years. So I think there is a good chance that Smith would land a five year deal. The question is, will that be next year (already under contract) plus a five year extension or next year, plus a four year extension. I tend to think it will be the latter. So for the rest of this article I’ll be using numbers that would be based off Smith getting a four year extension (or five years total).

Next, the average total amount of the contracts signed was 81.2 million. This number was brought down by a handful of smaller contracts, but 10 of the 16 contracts were worth a total value of 88+ million dollars. After looking at these numbers I find it hard to believe that Smith will get a total value of less than 80 million over the five year span. 80 million over five years averages out to 16 million per year and the average of the contracts above is 16.2 million. However, quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger have contracts that are now over 5 years old. When those contracts are re-upped in the next year or two, you can bet that the average per year will go up. So a 16 million per year average is actually very low for 2014 standards when it comes to starting quarterbacks. You can see on the chart that the only contracts that have been signed since 2013 where the QB averaged less than 17.7 million are Carson Palmer’s (who is older and a bigger question mark) and Tom Brady (who took a HUGE discount to help his team after already having received a huge payday on his last contract).

So for the sake of this discussion let’s go with Smith getting 5 years/80 million total value for an average of 16 million per year average.

Now it’s time to talk guaranteed money. There was a wipe discrepancy in the percentage of the contracts that were guaranteed, ranging from 18.8% (Peyton Manning) to 78.3% (Matt Stafford). The low percentage for Manning makes sense given his neck concerns when he signed with Denver. Stafford’s deal had an abnormally high percentage because he was singing an extension with years still left on his old deal. Therefore not all that guaranteed money actually counts against the cap during the three “extended” years. It was distributed over those years plus the years he still had remaining.

Confused yet?

Bottom line is that the average percentage of guaranteed money was about 42.5%. If we go with our 80 million figure from above, that would give us 34 million guaranteed. That’s actually slightly higher than the 31.8 million in average guaranteed money that you see on the chart. However, I think that’s pretty realistic given the guaranteed money in recent contracts. In fact, for our estimated contract I’m actually going to round it up to 35 million guaranteed to make it a nice easy number to work with.

So now we have a contract for 5 years, 80 million, with 35 million guaranteed. Let’s say that part of that 35 million in guaranteed dollars is a 15 million dollar signing bonus. Signing bonuses are spread out evenly against the cap over the length of the contract, so that would be three million against the cap for five years. So how might Smith’s contract breakdown look given these numbers? Let’s try something like this (all numbers are in millions):

So in this scenario, Smith’s cap number for next season would go almost unchanged. His 2014 and 2015 salaries would be 100% guaranteed, assuring him of being the starting QB for the next two seasons. In 2016, he would still have 8 million of his 17 million cap hit guaranteed, making him a safe bet for still being a Chief that season but it would open the door for the possibility of looking elsewhere if things weren’t going well. Finally, his 2017 and 2018 salaries would be 0% guaranteed. That means that the Chiefs could cut him at that point and the only cap hit that they would take is the 3 million each year from his signing bonus.

I feel like after looking at the contracts signed by starting quarterbacks this is a fair place to start the discussion. So if Smith and the Chiefs do reach an agreement I think the 5 year, 80 million, 35 million guaranteed benchmarks will be a good measuring stick to compare the deal to. If the years/amounts are significantly less, then John Dorsey won the negotiations. If the years/amounts are significantly more, then Smith’s agent got him a very nice deal.

 

[MHSL82]

What will an Alex Smith extension cost the Chiefs? - SBNation.com

 

[MHSL82]

 

[MHSL82]

About the video, I like the beginning, but when it went back to the Niners for a bit, it just seemed a little bit bitter. The beginning was fine, but inserting it later didn't seem necessary. They could have added the Catch III where Smith threw the winning TD in the playoffs in 2011. I thought they were going to when they came back to flashbacks, but alas, they didn't. That was better than his big run.

I thought they should have added the should-have-been game winner against San Diego in their first matchup and they should have had the invisible hand-off score. Also, I noticed again how two blocks that should have been made in the Indy game weren't - one was the long Bowe play and the other was where Gray didn't block for Jenkins. The Chiefs were up by 41-38 at that point and it would have been a TD.

 

[MHSL82]

The Most Memorable Plays by Alex Smith in '13

 

[MHSL82]

[YOUTUBE]uTmBvPg-Kto[/YOUTUBE]

 

[MHSL82]

Creating Space

Alex Smith's contract situation is a tricky one. On one hand, you have the recent Jay Cutler and Tony Romo deals, which are gigantic contracts for guys who aren't elite quarterbacks. On the other hand, those deals were pretty stupid and the Romo one is already making the Cowboys scramble. Throw in the fact that Alex Smith has publicly stated that he's in a "different place" than those guys career-wise and you've got multiple reasons to believe his contract isn't going to be as back-breaking.

That said, it's not going to be cheap, either. So let's try to come up with something expensive, but not stupid. Because if the Chiefs are going to be stupid with Smith's contract this whole exercise is moot.

Alex Smith Extension - 6 years, $90 million, $35 million guaranteed ($18 million signing bonus)

I can absolutely promise that some of you are saying, "That's insane! We can't pay Smith that much!!!" and others are saying, "That's insane! Smith will never sign for that little compared to Cutler / Romo!"

I'm not going to spend a ton of time arguing other than to say the fact that two sides are unhappy is a pretty good sign we've managed to find a decent guesstimate. This amount gives Smith a massive paycheck right away and guarantees him more than four times as much money as he's currently got. It's insurance against injury and a guarantee of "We're not going to replace you for at LEAST three years after signing this," and it's just as much as he'd get in an open market with rookie quarterbacks costing a third this amount.

For those who are freaking out about the cap implications, please know that this extension actually buys the Chiefs cap room and we're now sitting a $10 million in cap space as opposed to $8 million, and has the Chiefs sitting just fine in 2015 as well. It also is set up to where Smith's cap hit doesn't go above $10 million until 2017, when the cap is going to be higher and the Chiefs have made it through the massive dead money amounts.

Again, it's all about the guaranteed money and the dead money. This scenario presents us with one year where Smith's cap hit is $15 million and he can't realistically be cut ($11 million in dead money): 2017. Beyond that, if he isn't living up to a big deal, he could be cut with only a little over $3 million in dead money. So you've got four years where you're "stuck" with Smith and this contract.

This isn't about whether you think Smith is a franchise QB. It seems the organization does, so we're having them act accordingly in a way that helps us now and doesn't hurt us much later.
So now we're at $10 million in cap space

 

[MHSL82]

Chiefs Red and Gold Episode One

 

[MHSL82]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWajNyQD35Y]Alex Smith - Live On (Highlights) - YouTube[/ame]

 

[MHSL82]

Article from Fansided. :/ Stats from PFF. Better.

Alex Smith And Pressure - Arrowhead Addict - A Kansas City Chiefs Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith leads the league in 3rd Down and 9+ to go:

View attachment 9743

Save this when someone says that you can expect to punt if it isn't a short yardage down with Alex Smith.

 

[MHSL82]

I just went to Alex Smith's commencement address. It was pretty good and personal. A couple of notes:

1. Said that given his common name, he should change his jersey to say, "Dr. Smith." (He received an honorary doctorate for his foster kids scholarship program.)

2. He said that Urban Meyer's favorite saying was, "If where you want to be is not where you are, you have to do something different than you are doing." Simple, but true (he also worded that better). Practically speaking, that meant understanding your weaknesses and working on them, not hiding them. It also included embracing the new. 7 offensive coordinators in seven years (he also acknowledged being able to learn from their knowledge).

3. He said his father was the principal of his high school, the maker of his schedule. As schedule maker, his father scheduled a public speaking competition. Ironically, his first topic was, "Overpaid Athletes."

4. He said that when he was in the draft process, he was trying to be the perfect interviewer, perfect professional, etc. when selected first, he tried to "not screw up." "Don't throw an interception. don't fumble the ball. Don't line up behind the guard."

5. He said his beginning years were such a challenge, but nothing worse than - he stopped and said it was better to demonstrate it. He instructed everyone to stand up and boo him, call him a bust, and "you ruined my fantasy team!" Said that if they wanted they could boo some other quarterbacks, Manning, Brady, "or if you want to be really creative (sarcastically) Kaepernick." (Crowd booed laughingly.) he recounted the "We Want Carr!" chants. He said it was nationally televised, 80,000 or do, and the worst part, "it was the home team. The very people he had been working so hard to do well for." He said that we all will have times where we fail or feel like you weren't doing what you should."

6. He said that there actually was a worse feeling. He had finally felt he had turned the corner, was going to take the next step. He was playing his best ball and winning, when he had his concussion. Didn't blame Harbaugh or anyone, just said that there are times in all our lives where what we think is going to happen, doesn't. We can sulk or move on and control what you can control. To be on the SB field as captain was hard.

7. I felt it was honest, funny, and never bitter. He talked about challenges, but he never said it was unfair. The Kaepernick quip was obviously a joke.

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith asks for boos in speech to University of Utah grads | The Salt Lake Tribune

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith delivers three pieces of advice to Utah graduates - Arrowhead Pride

 

[MHSL82]

Transcript of speech: QB Alex Smith offers advice to Utah graduates | ChiefsSpin.com

 

[MHSL82]

Okay, last one. I doubt many if anyone is going to watch the whole thing, but it's here if you'd like.

[YOUTUBE]4E-2AtyI_I8[/YOUTUBE]

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith's Commencement Address At Utah [Video] - Arrowhead Addict - A Kansas City Chiefs Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Should be an important year for Alex. If he performs like he did in the 2nd half, I would be pretty surprised if he isn't extended.

 

[MHSL82]

Should be an important year for Alex. If he performs like he did in the 2nd half, I would be pretty surprised if he isn't extended.

I think he is waiting for the draft and will sign a team friendly deal. He was going to:

a) Sign a big commitment contract before draft.
b) Team friendly deal if no QB selected early (1-4 rounds, maybe 1-3 rounds)
c) Play out this year if they pick a QB unless a) happens after draft.

He's a smart guy who wants to start and does not want to be at KCs mercy if they like someone else. I predict a low total/average contract (that will make people question his value despite team attitude) but a higher guaranteed than people expect (which makes doubters scratch their heads why we like him so much).