Trade deadline lead-up

[thecrow124]

I think it is a sellers market, and I think it is going to stay a sellers market. There are just to many teams that are staying around, and it appears as though they will continue to hang around. The teams that are clearly sellers right now all have the same problem, they are sellers because they just don't have many good players. Not one of them is like we were when we had Giles and Bay, that one big star that could really help a team. It could be that someone severely overpay's for an average major league baseball player, like Chase Headley. I don't want any part of that, let someone else give up some top prospects for him.
Since this is how the market is shaping up, I would get on the phone with teams that have good players that may have fallen out of favor with their clubs, Justin Upton comes to mind. I don't expect Arizona would give him up, but if we are going to give up top prospects, look to acquire value and control. The problem with Arizona is that they have solid pitching, and Bauer in AAA that they are trying to open a spot for. I just use Upton as an example, there have to be others around MLB.
Another example would be Toronto, there is no way they need all the power bats they have in their lineup. Maybe even Boston, they seem to have their drama starting early this year.
I am just trying to say that this year, you may have to go about the trade deadline a little differently, find someone that isn't necessarily a seller, that has solid pieces, since it looks like you will have to overpay anyway, overpay for real talent, not the middling pieces that seem to be available currently.

 

[element1286]

Yea, for Justin Upton, I'd give up the entire top 3, and some extra good prospects, but I couldn't imagine why Arizona would trade him. It's too bad Colorado just has a bunch of spare parts outside of Tulo and Cargo who's contracts make them essentially untradeable to the Bucs. They seem like they are ready for a teardown.

There was a good article on fangraphs today about the Bucs making some deals. It essentially said the Pirates lineup is so bad, it would be hard NOT to find an upgrade, and it probably wouldn't cost very much. They mentioned Cody Ross in the article, specifically.

 

[Etrius24]

What 4 days later and We have a trade.. So much for there being no market.

Red Sox trade Kevin Youkilis to White Sox - Yahoo! Sports...

Sure teams start out asking for a lot... That is nothing new...You try to sell high and buy low... Every team does it whenever possible. That does not mean there is no trade market. It just means nobody is having a fucking firesale.

The Red Sox picked up a portion of the price tag for Youk... and got 2 players... one a bench player utility infielder type... The asking price was very reasonable.

And Mags I will respond to my error in the other post... It is my fault... I was working on a document I had to type up... and the date for it was september first... and for some reason that got stuck in my head.... As soon as logged on the next morning and saw my post I was like... what the hell... But that is life...

But The point I made still applies in the sense that trading for a player on the 19 of june as opposed to the 31st of july... means an extra 6 starts for a pitcher... and 100+ at bats for a position player.

Whatever need a particular team has be it pitching or hitting addressing the problem 6 weeks early might just equate into a couple extra wins... and that is a lot when you have a wide open division and the wild card or cards as it were.

This makes making a deal sooner rather than later all the more important..and if you have to give a little extra for the pieces you need to compete.. So be it..

Youk is not a young man... 33... but he cost almost nothing for the Whitesox to get him... It did not take a top prospect and the White Sox did not have to eat all of his salary.

This is a perfect example that trades are out there to make... and easily done...

 

[thecrow124]

What 4 days later and We have a trade.. So much for there being no market.

Red Sox trade Kevin Youkilis to White Sox - Yahoo! Sports...

Sure teams start out asking for a lot... That is nothing new...You try to sell high and buy low... Every team does it whenever possible. That does not mean there is no trade market. It just means nobody is having a fucking firesale.

The Red Sox picked up a portion of the price tag for Youk... and got 2 players... one a bench player utility infielder type... The asking price was very reasonable.

And Mags I will respond to my error in the other post... It is my fault... I was working on a document I had to type up... and the date for it was september first... and for some reason that got stuck in my head.... As soon as logged on the next morning and saw my post I was like... what the hell... But that is life...

But The point I made still applies in the sense that trading for a player on the 19 of june as opposed to the 31st of july... means an extra 6 starts for a pitcher... and 100+ at bats for a position player.

Whatever need a particular team has be it pitching or hitting addressing the problem 6 weeks early might just equate into a couple extra wins... and that is a lot when you have a wide open division and the wild card or cards as it were.

This makes making a deal sooner rather than later all the more important..and if you have to give a little extra for the pieces you need to compete.. So be it..

Youk is not a young man... 33... but he cost almost nothing for the Whitesox to get him... It did not take a top prospect and the White Sox did not have to eat all of his salary.

This is a perfect example that trades are out there to make... and easily done...

But you are neglecting the fact that Kevin Youkolis is not an upgrade at any position he is capable of playing for us. As much as i can't stand Pedro he is a better option than Youk, and the sorry platoon at first is a better option as well. Si while we could have made a trade for him, it would nit have helped the team at all. Looking at it from that perspective, there is still no viable trade market to speak of.

 

[Etrius24]

Crow

I did not necessarily want youk for the Pirates...Youk is an example that teams are willing to make trades... It was in reference to the comment about NO MARKET FOR TRADES.

Other people will be traded this season...and I will not be advocating them joining the Pirates...

Fact is that all it takes is for 2 teams to pull the trigger on a deal and it is done... So this talk of no trade market... is just that... talk. If the Pirates or the Jays or the Angels want to add a player to make a post season push all they have to do is got get that player... They are out there...

In years past several teams have dumped players for next to nothing in what was almost a firesale.. And I think that a bunch of teams would like that situation to occur again this year... I think that several teams are waiting for that situation to present itself.. but that does not mean there are no teams to trade with... It just means NH wants something for nothing.... and he is holding off making a deal trying to get someone at a significant discount....This may or may not be a good idea....

 

[thecrow124]

Crow

I did not necessarily want youk for the Pirates...Youk is an example that teams are willing to make trades... It was in reference to the comment about NO MARKET FOR TRADES.

Other people will be traded this season...and I will not be advocating them joining the Pirates...

Fact is that all it takes is for 2 teams to pull the trigger on a deal and it is done... So this talk of no trade market... is just that... talk. If the Pirates or the Jays or the Angels want to add a player to make a post season push all they have to do is got get that player... They are out there...

In years past several teams have dumped players for next to nothing in what was almost a firesale.. And I think that a bunch of teams would like that situation to occur again this year... I think that several teams are waiting for that situation to present itself.. but that does not mean there are no teams to trade with... It just means NH wants something for nothing.... and he is holding off making a deal trying to get someone at a significant discount....This may or may not be a good idea....

Youk is still a bad example. It isn't like yhe White Sox said, we have to have Kevin Youkilis. It was more that the Red Sox uad to dump him. So that was an obvious trade situation, him being disgruntled only exascerbated the move. I and i am sure mags will continue that there is no trade market, because i don't feel there is anyone currently available that would help yhe team.
However, if you contend that trades can be made by teams willing to overpay, then you would be correct, there is a trade market for that 100% of the time. However, that is probably a bad way to run an organization.

 

[Etrius24]

crow..

Depends on how you look at it... Overpay or pay close to what a player is really worth outside of a salary dump, rebuilding process or firesale...

In the past teams wait to try to get players only in these situations... But there is no rule set in stone that you cannot just you know actually go out and acquire someone... you get something good... and you give something good back in return.

People on this board were talking about Headley...and they were posting that maybe the Padres would be content with our bnch rabble and a nothing prospect... You know send them Jones and a bullpen arm in A ball.

That is wanting something for basically nothing...There is always a market for trades under normal circumstances where you make a real offer and give the other team something other than shit in return...

 

[thecrow124]

crow..

Depends on how you look at it... Overpay or pay close to what a player is really worth outside of a salary dump, rebuilding process or firesale...

In the past teams wait to try to get players only in these situations... But there is no rule set in stone that you cannot just you know actually go out and acquire someone... you get something good... and you give something good back in return.

People on this board were talking about Headley...and they were posting that maybe the Padres would be content with our bnch rabble and a nothing prospect... You know send them Jones and a bullpen arm in A ball.
That is wanting something for basically nothing...There is always a market for trades under normal circumstances where you make a real offer and give the other team something other than shit in return...

I re-read the entire thread and only 2 people made any assertion as to names to be traded to SD for Headley, I brought up Cole and Taillon, and illinest I believe listed about 15 players plus a descriptor. No where in the thread did I see anyone say Headley for Jones plus bullpen arms.

Just to give you an idea, almost every trade made is giving up something and getting back nothing on one side. Very rarely is a major leaguer traded for a major leaguer. While there may be throw-ins to even out a deal, they are rarely a centerpiece. Any and every prospect is a crapshoot, some work out and some don't, and you can't just look at them and know one way or the other. Even if the prospects do work out, your team is essentially getting nothing now to help them.

 

[Etrius24]

Prospect trades are a risk I agree.. But there are trades where two teams give quality to get quality.

I think one trade specifically mentioned Gorkys Hernandez not jones who at this point is a nothing...Every team in the league has a player like him in their farm system.. good glove... no bat... the minor leagues are riddled with players like this. THEY HAVE LITTLE TO NO VALUE

To suggest sending that kind of player and a bench player or low level bullpen arm to the Padres for Headley is a joke... Unless the Padres cannot make payroll or Headley threatens to kill someone.

Several posts on this board have suggested that the pirates be sellers with players like Hanrahan for example... Dump him for a prospect... And in years past teams that were well out of contention would be content to dump players they could not re-sign or afford for nothing but middle of the road prospects.

Some GM's ( NH perhaps?) might be waiting for those same parameters to occur so they can get what they want to bolster their team without having to give much of anything up in return... Maybe NH is waiting because he has been on the other side selling and he wants to get the exact same kind of bargain when he is buying???

But trades happen all the time... and they have happened every year and they do not have to be salary dumps, firesales...etc...I remember when the Blue Jays traded Fred McGriff to the Padres to get Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter...they had to give quality to get quality.

I hate the thought of trading away one of the better prospects in the system... But as you said Some prospects work out and some do not...So even if the Pirates do send one of the better pitching prospects in the system to another team for a couple of bats to help their post season chances.... there is no absolute guarantee that pitcher is going to pan out like we all hope... It is a crapshoot. this makes it a lot easier to justify trading away a quality arm to try to get into the post season.

I would bet any amount to anyone that if NH was willing to deal one of the better prospects in the system he could make a trade right now... But it is hard to make a trade when you say the top 20 prospects in the system are off limits... and we want a good player from another team to help make the post season...

That is looking for something for nothing... While I appreciate the GM's desire to get maximum value...It is not reasonable to hold onto every prospect... sometimes you just have to be proactice and pull the trigger on a deal.

We could get Headley Quentin and Huston Street from the Padres for Taillon and Tabata ( just a hypothetical )... and that is still no guarantee that the Pirates get into the post season... But at some point... It would be nice if the GM showed he believes in this team enough to go make a move and bring in a bat ( or two ) and a arm to give this team it's best chance to make the post season in 20 years.

If taillon became a really good pitcher in the majors someday I could live with it if the Pirates went to the wire and had a chance to make the post season going into the last week of the season... To make the games matter... To have a season where you can believe it is going to be special... That is worth a good prospect to me... And if by chance the Pirates were able to get into the post season.... Then it is a great trade....

It has been 20 years gone since this team has made the playoffs...This is something worth gambling for... Without the deep pockets of the Red Sox, Mets or Yankees the Pirates cannot expect to make the post season annually.... If the Gm feels they have a shot this year... I think they need to take it... Even if that means giving up one of the better prospects in the system.

 

[thecrow124]

Let me start out by saying that you may be the only non-San Diego fan that would even suggest a trade of Taillon plus anything for Headley, he is not worth that to anyone that knows anything about player values. As for the other 2 you mention, they would be nothing more than a salary dump for SD, so should not even factor in to the trade. Good baseball people don't trade away potential future #1 pitchers for slightly above average major leaguers, and then to suggest that the Pirates actually add more to sweeten the deal is absurd. We don't even have any need for Quentin or Street, I realize for some reason you have a bromance for Quentin, but his trade value, if I were to guess, is probably close to if not a negative value. I can't for the life of me even figure out where we would put Street, he is useless altogether.

I know that this thread is going nowhere, because you refuse to believe that no one really wants to part with their players that could add value to our team, but you have to understand that there must be a limit on what you offer in a trade.

Do not take this the wrong way though, if the correct trade came around, I would trade anyone in the organization, and I am sure NH would as well, but that offer obviously isn't out there.

I also disagree that Gorkys Hernandez has no value, he is probably every bit the baseball player that Carlos Gomez and Lorenzo Cain are, and both of those 2 were in package trades for Cy Young winning pitchers. Any prospect that still maintains prospect status has value. Heck, Jamie Moyer has value, and he is so old I think he uses a cane to maneuver around the mound.

As for not holding on to every prospect, that seems to work out well for Tampa Bay, and Minnesota(for the most part), it is the teams that trade away all of their prospects that tend to run into problems, look at Milwaukee, they are a disaster right now, they currently have a pitcher that was below average in AA in their starting rotation, because they have no one else, and have nothing of value to trade to acquire anyone to help. It is also the same reason Philly has been horrible to this point in the season. It is ALWAYS better to keep your own prospects. Even the Yankees and Red Sox keep their better prospects and then buy players through FA. The more prospects you have the better your chances of success.

Your last paragraph is also proven wrong by the Tampa Bay Rays, they seem to perform pretty well year in and year out because of their deep talented farm system. Minnesota up until last year was the same, and KC is getting close to that point now as well.

 

[magnumo]

Etrius Alert

What 4 days later and We have a trade.. So much for there being no market.

Red Sox trade Kevin Youkilis to White Sox - Yahoo! Sports...

<snip>

If you want to define the Red Sox dumping Youkilis as a "trade market," go right ahead. (In fact, I stopped reading your post at that point.) Beyond that, I can say only that I'm glad the Pirates don't consider a Youkilis-dump to be a "trade market."

Note to thecrow124: Don't know why you bother.

 

[steelparrot]

Aside for the obvious hole at short stop, we need outfielders not infielders.

Also, we do need to be able to win games that Grilli and Hanrahan dont pitch. We might be able to do that internally if we start getting 7 innings from our starters more often.

 

[Illinest]

I want to point out that i did not make any proposal for headley. Not in this thread anyways. my opinion is that you can get it done without including any of the big arms but youre probably going to need to include at least a few of the better prospects under that tier. Starling marte for example. Justin wilson, jeff locke, rudy owens.

If san diego requires taillon, cole, heredia, or bell then my inclination is to walk away. It wont make me cry if san diego wants too much but id like to at least have an offer out.

 

[thecrow124]

I want to point out that i did not make any proposal for headley. Not in this thread anyways. my opinion is that you can get it done without including any of the big arms but youre probably going to need to include at least a few of the better prospects under that tier. Starling marte for example. Justin wilson, jeff locke, rudy owens.

If san diego requires taillon, cole, heredia, or bell then my inclination is to walk away. It wont make me cry if san diego wants too much but id like to at least have an offer out.

You are correct, I went back and looked and I was referrencing sychmd.

 

[Etrius24]

Quentin has a negative value???

OPS over 1.000 ! He is not 25 and he is not cheap... but the guy can definitely hit a baseball... He has decent power and is a huge upgrade over Tabata, or anyone else not names McCutchen in the outfield.

Long term he is not the answer...but the point of making a deal now to get to the post season is now and the post season.

Let's deal with the statement about huston street... Have you even looked at his numbers? Have you seen him pitch this year? It would be nice to have another quality arm that can set up or close so Hanrahan and Cruz do not have to pitch almost every night. Street is not an elite closer... but he is a quality arm...He is having a good season and is pitching well. He would help any team's bullpen.

If you simply said that under no circumstances would you consider trading any of the better prospects in the system I could understand that... You seem to think that guys like Quentin and Street would bring nothing to the Pirates???? You said Quentin has negative trade value??????? Quentin could replace Tabata out there and give the team a boost of 200 points or more of OPS....That is significant!

I am a big fan of the Royals.... and they have been improving their farm system... Tampa Bay Does not make a lot of trades where they have to take on salary in part because they have limited financial resources..KC has not gotten to a point where they can say they have a shot to compete..But I think they are getting close... Butler, Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordon, is a great core offensive group...Moving forward the Royals are going to hit..and score a lot of runs... This group of players has a chance to be better than Damon, Dye, Sweeney and Beltran from over a decade ago..

And I am not advocating trading away all of the teams prospects... As long as the Pirates have teams in their division spending twice as much or more on payroll it is going to be challenging to say the least for them to compete... It is possible..but the margin or error is very small.

It has been 20 years + since the bucs made the post season... Chances to make the post season do not happen to the pirates very often...Which is why I advocated making a trade THIS YEAR.... and I am not talking about all the top prospects... JUST ONE... I have said many times I like the way NH has built the farm system with lots of pitching prospects. But for a chance to get to the post season I would trade one of them away.

And as I said before... how many of these potential front line starters pan out like we want them to??? some of them become closers some get injured.. Some are lucky to be #3 or #4 starters in the big leagues... Yes sometimes they make it and live up to the expectations put on them when they are 18.... but if we had to put a number on it... what would be the odds... 10% 15%

This is one of the problems the Royals are faced with right now...They invested heavily several drafts in a row on pitching and the pitchers they coveted have not panned out as legit #1 starters... they have guys like Aaron Crow...

If you were to make the argument to me that a prospect in the pirates farm system had a 50% chance of being a legit #1 starter and a ace...I would agree and say hold onto the kid...But I have yet to find the numbers that could support that position...

Look at McDonald...He is the ace of this team and as he matures he is becomming a legit #1 starter... Dominating.. pitching deep into games... striking out batters, making them miss... He was not some heralded prospect with us... 5 years ago we were all not sitting at our computers thinking about the day he would be leading this team... Point being that there are plenty of ways to find pitchers...

and if we did a study and the probability for success for projected future#1 starters was 15%...I would trade one such player away for a post season....

 

[Etrius24]

Street has 23 strikeouts in 18 innings... 1.50 era.. 11 saves 6 walks. 0.78 whip..He can definitely help the bullpen... It would be like adding another Hanrahan to the team.

 

[thecrow124]

mags.......I guess I am a glutton for punishment.

etrius - I was incorrect, Quentin, if he can complete this season without getting injured, or having his typical second half colapse, should be worth about 1 WAR. He is owed roughly $4 million this season, so I guess he could possibly be worth $1.5 million in a trade, unless SD eats the rest of his salary, defeating the purpose of salary dumping, in which case he would be worth $5.5 million in trade value, which is about a hitter or pitcher outside of the top 100 in BA's rankings, if that is the rankings you want to go by. He has little trade value is all I am saying. He does, again if he can avoid injury or second half colapses this season, have value to a team, I will not dispute that, he just has no trade value per se, please don't confuse the two, they are not mutually inclusive.

Houston Street, he is not an option, we would be on the hook for about $5 million for a guy that has a trade value of $3.75 million dollars(-$1.25 million actual value to a trade). Again, not that he wouldn't add value to a team, but to a trade he is a non-factor. With Street you also have to figure that he has a big injury history, and there is always that risk.

As for Headley, he has a trade value of just under $20 million, and would be the only significant piece of this trade for the Pirates team.

So if you were to factor all 3 together you get a total trade value, again barring injury and second half colapses, of roughly $20.25 million unless SD eats salary on Street and Quentin, in which case if they ate all the salary that would bring the trade value overall up to $30 million dollars. That could land them 1 hitter in the 26-50 range and 1 hitter in the 51-75 range. Or, they could get 1 top 10 pitcher, plus scrap, 1 pitcher 11-25 and 1 pitcher 51-100 plus scrap. Or a combination of these. So IF SD eats all the contracts they could conceivably get Cole or Taillon, plus scrap. Or they could get Marte and Bell. Or they could get a combination of any of these, but again, that is if they add money, to the tune of $10 million dollars. Take that away and they could conceivably expect 2 hitters 51-100, or 1 pitcher 11-25 or 1 pitcher 26-50 and 2 pitcher 51-100, with no scrap in any of these scenarios.

As for your contention that you can't predict what a top pitching prospect will turn out to be, for top 20 pitching prospects, there is a 60% chance that they mature into a good pitcher with a long career, and a 20% chance that he will be a top of the rotation starter with a long career. There is also about a 20% failure rate. This is based on 10 years of data from 1998 - 2007. There were even some outliers, like Rick Ankiel.

Your James McDonald comment should embarass you, he was not even in the PIrates system 5 years ago, so why would we even envision him as our #1 starter, that is just not a smart comment. I didn't even need to research that to know it was incorrect.

Your Royals comment is not correct either, one of those pitchers they invested in was Zach Greinke, he seems to have panned out pretty well, it is the GM's fault that he traded him.

So I guess the question is, do we have a deep enough minor league system that we can afford to trade off a top piece, for an outside shot at making the playoffs, does oen hitter really help us to the point where we would be a favorite to make the playoffs. I do not believe that Chase Headley really does that, so I would not be willing to trade off any of my top prospects for him, which means I would probably not be able to land him in a trade.I do not think even with the other 2 you mention added in at no value to SD would make us a true playoff contender this year, and definately not next year.

I have said it before and I will say it again, I am in no way opposed to trading off ANY prospect or ANY package of prospects, as long as it helps us for MULTIPLE seasons, that is why I started this entire thread, to state that if I was going to go out and trade for anyone it would be someone with multiple years of control, that would be a major upgrade. I do not care if it is a hitter or a pitcher, but an definate improvement with multiple years of control. MY personal top 2 targets would be Justin Upton and Wil Myers, and it would take Fort Knox to land either one, IF it could even be done. I would also add Anthony Rizzo into that mix, but I don't think Jed Hoyer would EVER let him go.

If I was going to rent a player, I would be looking at Zach Greinke, or Cole Hammels, but I don't think I would give up the package that it would take to land either of those 2.

 

[Illinest]

I infer that you are debating the merits of kevin creeeaarrrrrrggggghhhhs article about value.

Thats funny because if i felt that it was credible i wouldve linked to it myself. There are tons of problems with that article. Instead of trying to correlate together an ass-ton of subjective valuations and do-all metrics that each introduce their own set of inaccuracies and compound with each other you should simply seek out comps and work from the value that the market set.

 

[thecrow124]

I infer that you are debating the merits of kevin creeeaarrrrrrggggghhhhs article about value.

Thats funny because if i felt that it was credible i wouldve linked to it myself. There are tons of problems with that article. Instead of trying to correlate together an ass-ton of subjective valuations and do-all metrics that each introduce their own set of inaccuracies and compound with each other you should simply seek out comps and work from the value that the market set.

Actually, the trade values portion is pretty much the same no matter what reference you use. 1 WAR is worth roughly $5.5 million. Arbitration years usually go 25%, 40%, 60%, 80%, for super 2's, which Headley is. As for the values placed on prospects, I guess that is subjective, but if given the time you could come up with values for players in a range, which Creagh did, and it wasn't much different from the initial reference that he pointed out at the beginning of the article.

As for the other part of my arguement, It is statistically pretty accurate, the only real change would be where he ranks each pitcher. But for the most part, it is fair, you mightbe able to make an arguement for moving a couple pitchers up in his lists, but I couldn't find any at all I would move down.

However, the fact remains, I would not trade Taillon or Cole, or Heredia for that matter straight up for Headley or a package of Headley, Quentin and Street.

 

[element1286]

I'd trade elite for elite; if Justin Upton was actually available, then yea, trade anyone in the top 5. For Chase Headley, I would trade a few B guys.