Territorial Cup Thread

[WhoDatDevil]

Not sure if you realize that the last time the favored team actually won the T-Cup was in 2009. In 2010, the (then) 7-4 Cats were expected to beat the (then) 5-6 Sun Devils in Tucson, and lost. In 2011, the (then) 6-4 Sun Devils were expected to beat the (then) 3-8 Wildcats in Tempe, and lost. Last year, the (then) 7-4 Cats were expected to beat the (then) 6-5 Sun Devils in Tucson, and lost.

So, your "empirical proof" has been complete bullshit, the last three consecutive times these two teams have played. Therefore, two things can be concluded:

1) Had we all bet everything we had against (not only the spread, but even the winner) Vegas that last three years, we would in fact be rich.

2) That whole post of yours is complete bullshit.

It's a rivalry game, and anything can happen. ASU is picked to win because they are having the better season, just like AZ last year, ASU the year before that, AZ the year before that, and AZ also the year before that, etc. But when two teams who have an honest hatred for one another, play; anything can and does happen. It doesn't even matter where the game is played. The last three years in a row: the team with the better record was playing at home, expected to win... and lost. So your theory that it "rarely happens" has been empirically proven wrong the last three consecutive years!

BTW, you make me actually LOL when you try to take a sample size of 3 and "prove my theory wrong." I'm sure you've taken statistic classes, but you're a bit rusty on what makes a valid sample size. You would need at least a sample of 30 (arguably 20 in some cases) to achieve a margin error in the 90%-95% range. Here's a decent resource I quickly found if you'd like to brush up a bit.

The Importance of Quality Sample Size - Unite For Sight

 

[Monte Carlo Wildcat]

It's about as close to proof as you can get.. You need to think about what you're writing.. If anything can happen then there's a 50-50 percent chance that ASU wins and a 50-50 percent chance UA wins. You don't even need to apply Standard Deviation and Chebyshev's Law, you can clearly see that given those odds you're going to lay money on UA (or any underdog in a rivalry with that logic). So why isn't someone hanging out in Vegas right now beating the system? You would think that with all of you being convinced that anything can happen in this game we'd all be collecting checks.

Who, it sounds like you're trying to convince us that there always a favorite and always an underdog. Am I right? If so, for the most part, I agree with you. On paper, typically speaking, when you compare the two teams that are playing you can usually point out the team that should win and the team that should lose. Right??? Vegas knows this as well and thus create the money line. That's why you have to risk more money to win less if you bet for the favorite making it difficult to win substantial amounts if you always bet the favorite.

Also, I think there's one aspect of all this that you are missing and that's the very notion that most people that bet have no idea what they're doing. Vegas thrives off people that truly have no understanding of how or why they're betting other than to hopefully win money. The number of people that are clueless in betting far out number the ones who are savvy and it's these people who typically pay vegas out and keep them going.

 

[Jonas_steven]

The only reason I read this thread was to see if I could decipher any of jahii's nonsensical rants. The answer was no.

 

[Monte Carlo Wildcat]

Just under 4 days to go.

 

[CatsTopPac]

BTW, you make me actually LOL when you try to take a sample size of 3 and "prove my theory wrong." I'm sure you've taken statistic classes, but you're a bit rusty on what makes a valid sample size. You would need at least a sample of 30 (arguably 20 in some cases) to achieve a margin error in the 90%-95% range. Here's a decent resource I quickly found if you'd like to brush up a bit.

The Importance of Quality Sample Size - Unite For Sight

I'm do research for a living. So you can take your sample size, and kindly go fuck yourself.

I understand what a point spread is, and I understand that ASU will be picked to win because they should. But just like last year, the year before that, and the year before that; when fans of the underdog say that stats go out the window for a rivalry game, it's a valid point. Especially when the teams are as heated rivals as these two, and when the game as not extremely lopsided, that there is a better chance of an upset than what the statistics indicate. It's called adding a qualitative argument to a quantitative analysis.

Am I saying that AZ is going to win? No. But am I willing to concede that just because Vegas picks ASU as the winner that AZ doesn't have a decent chance to win? No.

Because stats can only go so far. There is a factor that goes beyond the stats, which -in this case- says that when two teams are fairly close in ability, it's (in reality) a much closer game than what Vegas predicts. Would you bet everything you own that ASU is going to straight-up win? Of course not. But why not? According to Vegas, if ASU has the clear line, then it should be open and shut, right? The problem is that when these two meet, it's not always clear cut -the last three years will tell you that.

So, you tell yourself whatever you need to so that you can go to sleep at night. And you might be right. But just like last year, when AZ had the line; I am never surprised when the underdog wins, regardless of the line. Because it's a rivalry. And it usually comes down to which ever team wants it more. Everyone knows that to an extent, even if either team has a losing season, the year can still be considered a moderate success just by winning the T-Cup. So, how can statistics calculate sheer will? They can't. Because in the end, we are talking about people, not machines. So you can't just look at it on paper, and accurately predict the winner with any degree of certainty, because the human element cannot be calculated. Ever think about what happens if there is an injury (like, oh, I don't know; maybe Grice?), or an ejection, or someone has a terrible game? Any chance that ASU plays with a hangover after the UCLA victory and winning the South Championship? And what about the possibility that AZ plays with a hangover after beating Oregon? Either of those happening is certainly possible. Is that calculated in the line? Nope! Is it possible for a team to make up their minds that they will do whatever it takes to win, and go out there and play the game of their lives? Of course, and it happens far more regularly in a rivalry game. How does that get accounted for in the stats? Stats can only tell you what should happen, not what will happen.

You need to add a qualitative factor to your analysis and quit being such an assclown homer.

 

[520GGATO]

Arizona going with copper helmets Daniel Berk reports. Hellllll Yeaaaaaaaa.

 

[520GGATO]

To bad this game isn't gonna be shown nationaly like it traditionaly is. Use to either be on espn or fsn/fox sports. Not no more. Thanks for totally underminding this series who ever controls the pac tv schedual.

 

[JahiiCarson_SqodGeneral]

To bad this game isn't gonna be shown nationaly like it traditionaly is. Use to either be on espn or fsn/fox sports. Not no more. Thanks for totally underminding this series who ever controls the pac tv schedual.

If Yall would of beat Wazzu it would of!

 

[520GGATO]

If Yall would of beat Wazzu it would of!

And what about 2011 when both teams had sorry records?

 

[520GGATO]

If Yall would of beat Wazzu it would of!

Or all the years before that when at least one team had a sorry record?

 

[Monte Carlo Wildcat]

Happy turkey day to all!

 

[FORKWDEVIL]

Happy turkey day to all!

hell yea!

 

[FORKWDEVIL]

GO DEVILS!
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

 

[Monte Carlo Wildcat]

GO DEVILS!
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

Back at ya Fork. And good luck against Creighton tonight. A win over them theoretically should get you into the top 25.

 

[FORKWDEVIL]

Back at ya Fork. And good luck against Creighton tonight. A win over them theoretically should get you into the top 25.

All American Doug McDermott (sp) will get his 30 plus I am sure.
Thanks for the vote of confidence Monte.

 

[nogicat]

My biased prediction:
Arizona 35
ASU 28

Honest prediction:
ASU 38
Arizona 35

 

[FORKWDEVIL]

My biased prediction:
Arizona 35
ASU 28

Honest prediction:
ASU 38
Arizona 35

similar to mine

ASU 35
UOFA 38

 

[JahiiCarson_SqodGeneral]

Asu 31
Uofa 41

 

[Monte Carlo Wildcat]

36 hours to go!

 

[JahiiCarson_SqodGeneral]

Still dont like Kadeem cant run block, cant catch out of the backfield, huge huge fumbling issues. Horrible attitude, got arressted. Thats where all his attention from ESPN comes from.

Carey also lives off of Denker, much like Alfred Morris from the Redskins he lives off RG3 that read option is killer. But I would still take Grice over Kadeem.

I dont get how a running back who cost his team the game vs UCLA, fumbling issues, and a guy who is on a 7-4 team gets any Heisman consideration sorry azdbacks.