Random FF Thoughts

[averagejoe]

Moose posted this on the Bears message board. Thought it was interesting enough to share here.

Some Pass-Run Ratios View attachment 180327
View attachment 180328

 

[eaglesnut]

Moose posted this on the Bears message board. Thought it was interesting enough to share here.

Some Pass-Run Ratios View attachment 180327
View attachment 180328

What exactly am I looking at here? Is that downs?

So if I'm reading it right:
The Eagles were the 3rd most pass happy team on 1st downs in the 1st quarter?
Andy Reid passed the most on 1st down in the 1st quarter?

Is the raw data anywhere?

 

[averagejoe]

What exactly am I looking at here? Is that downs?

So if I'm reading it right:
The Eagles were the 3rd most pass happy team on 1st downs in the 1st quarter?
Andy Reid passed the most on 1st down in the 1st quarter?

Is the raw data anywhere?

That's my understanding as well.
In the original post, he had said he got the information from an LA Rams site.

 

[eaglesnut]

That's my understanding as well.
In the original post, he had said he got the information from an LA Rams site.

I looked briefly for that since the rams were highlighted. Couldn't find it. Might dig again later.

Thanks for posting it.

 

[averagejoe]

Fantasy football sleepers, busts, breakouts for 2018

Some names that stand out:
Cousins seems to lead the bust opinions.
Jimmy Graham gets the bust nod in a landslide.

 

[eaglesnut]

Can't see Cousins busting.

Switching teams and systems can be tough on a guy, but Kirk has a good foundation, can throw to all fields, sees the defense well, etc.

I think there's a bigger chance of this being a Drew Brees like situation more than some of the failed QB moves you see.

 

[TREFF]

Can't see Cousins busting.

Switching teams and systems can be tough on a guy, but Kirk has a good foundation, can throw to all fields, sees the defense well, etc.

I think there's a bigger chance of this being a Drew Brees like situation more than some of the failed QB moves you see.

Id agree if we're talking just straight up, falling flat on your face, busting. But I can easily see him falling well short of expectations, and being a "bust" in that sense

 

[TREFF]

Fantasy football sleepers, busts, breakouts for 2018

Some names that stand out:
Cousins seems to lead the bust opinions.
Jimmy Graham gets the bust nod in a landslide.

I found it interesting that there wasn't a single mention of McKinnon being a bust. with virtually all "experts" having expectations being some variant if McKinnon being Kyle Shanny's new D. Freeman, and let's not forget that Shanny's version of Freeman was a top two RB, expectations are pretty darn high.

 

[averagejoe]

I found it interesting that there wasn't a single mention of McKinnon being a bust. with virtually all "experts" having expectations being some variant if McKinnon being Kyle Shanny's new D. Freeman, and let's not forget that Shanny's version of Freeman was a top two RB, expectations are pretty darn high.

It scares me when Eric Karabell likes someone I like cause he's awful.

 

[eaglesnut]

Id agree if we're talking just straight up, falling flat on your face, busting. But I can easily see him falling well short of expectations, and being a "bust" in that sense

Why?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Cousins - this is pretty much the perfect formula for a QB.

• athletic TE for RZ and safety valve......check (rudolph not flashy, but great all-around TE)
• dynamic receiving duo........check (Diggs/Theilen can give QB everything he needs from WR)
• strong run game........check (if Cook stays healthy goes from strong to very strong, Lat Murray held his own in Cook's absence last yr)
• smothering defense........check (they did fall off a bit at the end of the season after the injuries piled up, but this is a great unit with a defensive minded HC)

The run game and defense could be used as a knock against Cousins' fantasy success, but I have to say the stars are aligned for him to have plenty of real football success in Minny

 

[TREFF]

Why?

Because he's not all that great and expectations are super bowl.
As far as fantasy terms, he's never been great, just adequate, people expecting grestness, in fantasy points, haven't paid attention. And the Vikes are defense ball control to start with, not massive QB numbers.

So real football, its super bowl, or fail to meet expectations, in fantasy football, its just not a situation designed to generate the numbers. It'd be easy to "bust"

 

[eaglesnut]

Because he's not all that great and expectations are super bowl.
As far as fantasy terms, he's never been great, just adequate, people expecting grestness, in fantasy points, haven't paid attention. And the Vikes are defense ball control to start with, not massive QB numbers.

So real football, its super bowl, or fail to meet expectations, in fantasy football, its just not a situation designed to generate the numbers. It'd be easy to "bust"

First off he was underdrafted because NFL teams are generally retarded when drafting QBs. Second, he's in his prime and he's good. We don't have to wonder about either of those.

Now his smothering defense was completely exposed in the NFCCG. It'll be a good defense, but they're gonna ask Kirk and company to score points.

His OC is lacking in experience, but comes from a great Doug Pederson system that's on the leading edge of offensive design in this league.

His WRs are legit and can attack all parts the field. He has a reliable TE.

The pieces are there, the talent is there. You make it sound like the Redskins didn't totally fucking botch the fuck out of this.

They did.

 

[averagejoe]

I agree with Monkey.
Will also add that i don't think that anyone is expecting Cousins to be Tom Brady. But if Keenum can flourish then I can't see any reason to expect respectable passing numbers from Kirk.
Maybe there is the knock that the Vikes new OC has limited experience calling plays, but so did OC Cavanaugh on D.C. Yet Cousins turned that into 4K and 27 TD.

 

[TREFF]

First off he was underdrafted because NFL teams are generally retarded when drafting QBs. Second, he's in his prime and he's good. We don't have to wonder about either of those.

Now his smothering defense was completely exposed in the NFCCG. It'll be a good defense, but they're gonna ask Kirk and company to score points.

His OC is lacking in experience, but comes from a great Doug Pederson system that's on the leading edge of offensive design in this league.

His WRs are legit and can attack all parts the field. He has a reliable TE.

The pieces are there, the talent is there. You make it sound like the Redskins didn't totally fucking botch the fuck out of this.

They did.

Actually, if you can stop jumping to conclusions and putting words in everyone's mouth Luke you always do. Never said anything of the sort. Simply stated that he's never been all that great of a fantasy QB, and that was for a tram that NEEDED to throw because they sucked. You hoping or thinking that all of a sudden the Vikes turn pass happy, even to the level that the skins were, is nothing short of a pipe dream. And even if they did, Cousins was not the guy you wanted for your QB1.

NONE of that means he'll bust, unless your delusional and think he'll suddenly be 5000, 35+ TDs just because he got paid, then, yes, he's gonna bust. Not because he can't, because he won't. On a team that generated Madden level passing numbers, Cousins was still never better than a matchup play. On a team that relies on their defense (yes just because your beloved Eagles trashed them one game doesn't mean they aren't a very stout defense), he's not going to be more than that. Probably will be less.

Saying otherwise is wishful dreaming with no basis in rational thought or reality.

 

[TREFF]

I agree with Monkey.
Will also add that i don't think that anyone is expecting Cousins to be Tom Brady. But if Keenum can flourish then I can't see any reason to expect respectable passing numbers from Kirk.
Maybe there is the knock that the Vikes new OC has limited experience calling plays, but so did OC Cavanaugh on D.C. Yet Cousins turned that into 4K and 27 TD.

Was Keenum a guy you wanted to start though? Respectable yes, fantasywise, he's not going to be a desirable QB1, he wasn't before

 

[averagejoe]

Was Keenum a guy you wanted to start though? Respectable yes, fantasywise, he's not going to be a desirable QB1, he wasn't before

My point is that Keenum was not relevant yet he did well in Minny. Can't see Cousins failing and he is already better than Keenum.

 

[eaglesnut]

Actually, if you can stop jumping to conclusions and putting words in everyone's mouth Luke you always do. Never said anything of the sort. Simply stated that he's never been all that great of a fantasy QB, and that was for a tram that NEEDED to throw because they sucked. You hoping or thinking that all of a sudden the Vikes turn pass happy, even to the level that the skins were, is nothing short of a pipe dream. And even if they did, Cousins was not the guy you wanted for your QB1.

NONE of that means he'll bust, unless your delusional and think he'll suddenly be 5000, 35+ TDs just because he got paid, then, yes, he's gonna bust. Not because he can't, because he won't. On a team that generated Madden level passing numbers, Cousins was still never better than a matchup play. On a team that relies on their defense (yes just because your beloved Eagles trashed them one game doesn't mean they aren't a very stout defense), he's not going to be more than that. Probably will be less.

Saying otherwise is wishful dreaming with no basis in rational thought or reality.

Cousins throws multiple touchdowns half the time. That's a pretty reliable indicator of how useful he is for our purposes.

What I said was he's more likely to completely go off than bust. To put it another way I'll say he's more likely to be QB3 than QB15.

Edit: almost forgot he's good for a few more scores on the ground too. Basically he's one of the 30 TD guys.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Cousins was a league-winning-QB just a couple seasons ago - he's been more than adequate as a fantasy QB, not typically going to win your matchup outright for you, but he isn't going to be the reason you lose it.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

My point is that Keenum was not relevant yet he did well in Minny. Can't see Cousins failing and he is already better than Keenum.

Don’t know about that. Sure he is better than Keemun. But that is irrelevant. The question is will he be better than Keenum’s career best season.

We often believe that just because player a is better than player b that means player a will always be better than player b. But that is just not true.

Really, cousins will be lucky to have as good of a season as Keenum did last year.