Thoughts after Week 6...

[belcherboy]

My thoughts through 6 weeks:

* Miami is impressive, but I still don't buy them as a legit playoff threat yet...especially in the AFC
* Baltimore - I've been impressed with Lamar. It will be interesting to see them play Detroit on Sunday.
* Cincinnati - They may be back. We'll see what they do in SF this weekend.
* Chargers - I'm not sure if anyone has done less with a QB with amazing stats the past 4 years. Maybe Detroit with Stafford?
* Broncos - I think it is clear that Wilson will not be with the Broncos next season. I'm not sure how they will pull it off though.
* Eagles - I think they look quite vulnerable.
* Lions - They keep winning, but we'll see what they are made of in Baltimore on Sunday
* NFC South - they have 3 teams with .500 or better records, but I still feel like all three are pretty weak.
* 49ers - I still think they are the team to beat.
* Cowboys - I count them out many weeks, but they keep winning. They still have the Eagles (twice), Seahawks, Rams, @Bills, @Dolphins, and Lions left. Ouch!

Any other things that stick out to you?

 

[Clayton]

I think the Broncos might end up doing what the Bears did last year. Get a top 3 pick, try and trade down for a veteran player of some kind and more picks.

I think QBs and WRs getting paid and targeted high in the draft and OCs getting promoted quickly to head coaching jobs has created value in defense and we've seen the league's pendulum swing back towards the middle. In particular, I think defensive lines and LBers (generally a front 6 and sometimes a front 7) are destroying most team's offensive lines and running backs. So not only can defenses attack pass games with numbers but now they're also doing well against the run and combined thats really bringing some teams like the Jets and Browns into contention even though they have some serious issues. I did pick a Browns/Eagles Super Bowl but I think both of those teams aren't as good as I was expecting even though they're up there.

Bengals are quietly getting back into their groove and could end up being the same scary team they've been the past two seasons. Lions, Niners, Jags, and Chiefs seem to have the easiest paths to the playoffs. Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens all seem like they have a lot of stuff to work out but if they do then they'll be scary. Dolphins are probably the biggest wild card just because they seem to be the best offense in a year when that may or may not be the way to win it all. Lions remind me a little bit of those good Patriots teams from the past.

 

[belcherboy]

Dolphins are probably the biggest wild card just because they seem to be the best offense in a year when that may or may not be the way to win it all.

The Dolphins are 5-1, but I think my biggest hesitation with them right now is that those wins came against teams with a combined record of 5-24 this season. They still have the Eagles (twice), Chiefs, Cowboys, @Ravens, and Bills left to play. Fortunately most of those games are at home.

I think they are a lock for at least 12 wins this year, but I'm still not sure they are built for the playoffs. Fortunately we'll have plenty of games to see what they can do.

 

[Clayton]

The Dolphins are 5-1, but I think my biggest hesitation with them right now is that those wins came against teams with a combined record of 5-24 this season. They still have the Eagles (twice), Chiefs, Cowboys, @Ravens, and Bills left to play. Fortunately most of those games are at home.

I think they are a lock for at least 12 wins this year, but I'm still not sure they are built for the playoffs. Fortunately we'll have plenty of games to see what they can do.

Yeah, I think they're almost certainly a playoff team just because their offense is so scary especially in a year where not many other offenses are clicking as well as expected. They're in the mix but the AFC is pretty much impossible to predict at this point. There could be scenarios where both the Jags and Texans make the playoffs.

 

[Tainthappening]

AFC went 6-1 over weekend and starting to show their dominance.

Bills did not look very good vs Giants. Giants OL looked like a sieve and they somehow got 317 yards of offense (20 more than Bills). I was waiting for Bills to start dominating the entire game and never happened. Giants #31 offense yards/game and defense #26.... doubt it was a trap game, not with playing Patriots next.

Eagles looked like different team after Johnson injury... 49ers looked like different team without McCaffrey.

 

[Tainthappening]

The Dolphins are 5-1, but I think my biggest hesitation with them right now is that those wins came against teams with a combined record of 5-24 this season. They still have the Eagles (twice), Chiefs, Cowboys, @Ravens, and Bills left to play. Fortunately most of those games are at home.

Eagles twice?

Picking Eagles/Dolphins Super Bowl already

 

[belcherboy]

Eagles twice?

Picking Eagles/Dolphins Super Bowl already

Ha ha...I don't know why I put that down.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

To piggyback those same teams you mentioned @belcherboy
Miami- That offense when it's rolling is really good but not sold on the defense and on the team overall when they have to get down and dirty.
Ravens- Will go as far as Lamar takes them. Him and Tuckers leg basically carry that team.
Bengals- Not buying them at all. Burrow will not be 100% all year and their schedule is tough. I think they miss the play-offs.
Chargers- Same old, same old. Talent on paper that gets wasted year after year.
Broncos- Total dumpster fire at this point. Surtain and the RB Williams are really the only players on the team worth keeping right now. Russ is officially done at this point and Payton isn't saving them. They are looking at a wholesale rebuild.
Eagles- Will still be there at the end despite being somewhat underwhelming. A bit of a SB hangover but just too dominant in the trenches and too good of a roster to fall too far. The loss of Lane Johnson could be huge though.
Lions- Hard luck franchise that has too much misery for far too long. They are a legit dark horse in the NFC but time will tell. Will likely run away with the NFCN and I can easily see 12 wins.
49ers- Still a good team that like the Eagles will be there in the conversation at the end but injuries could derail them and as good as Purdy has been besides this week, he can't carry them on his back like the Mahomes, Lamar, etc. guys.
Cowboys- The biggest who the hell knows which team will show up. But honestly, I can't take them as a legit threat to any really good teams with McCarthy at the wheels and Dak at QB until they prove otherwise. I think they might be the 4th or maybe even 5th best team in the conference by the end of the season.
Other teams to add in here.
Seahawks- Very young and at times it shows. Geno just another average QB who will give you some nice stat lines only to disappoint you in the end. However, this young defense, health permitting will be very good in the near future and already showing signs of that. A franchise QB away from being right there with the top of the conference because they are building a stacked roster.
Chiefs- Still finding their way in the passing game and scoring points consistently. Holy shit, when was the last time you could say that? Not looking forward to when they figure that out because the defense is playing really good and they can still beat anybody. A little concern about Kelce's health. That ankle will likely bug him all year but then again, it doesn't really seem to matter.
Browns- Historically dominating defense. Good at every level but Myles Garrett man. That dude is just a great football player. Lost the most consistently good RB in the game and doesn't seem to be missing a beat with Ford. Have to worry about the QB situation though. Watson needs to get healthy and return to his early career form if they are to compete in the AFC.
Jets- Similar to the Browns. Will go as far as the defense carries them. The offense with Zach Wilson basically have to be the 00 Ravens and just protect the ball.
Texans- A pleasant surprise and give teams everything they've got. Ryans looks like a damn good coach and Stroud is off to a great start to his career.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

be amazed if san fran is,nt the nfc sb rep.i still put kc as the afc fave.

 

[Shanemansj13]

My thoughts through 6 weeks:

* Miami is impressive, but I still don't buy them as a legit playoff threat yet...especially in the AFC
* Baltimore - I've been impressed with Lamar. It will be interesting to see them play Detroit on Sunday.
* Cincinnati - They may be back. We'll see what they do in SF this weekend.
* Chargers - I'm not sure if anyone has done less with a QB with amazing stats the past 4 years. Maybe Detroit with Stafford?
* Broncos - I think it is clear that Wilson will not be with the Broncos next season. I'm not sure how they will pull it off though.
* Eagles - I think they look quite vulnerable.
* Lions - They keep winning, but we'll see what they are made of in Baltimore on Sunday
* NFC South - they have 3 teams with .500 or better records, but I still feel like all three are pretty weak.
* 49ers - I still think they are the team to beat.
* Cowboys - I count them out many weeks, but they keep winning. They still have the Eagles (twice), Seahawks, Rams, @Bills, @Dolphins, and Lions left. Ouch!

Any other things that stick out to you?

That dead cap hit says otherwise.

 

[redseat]

 

[shopson67]

AFC went 6-1 over weekend and starting to show their dominance.

Bills did not look very good vs Giants. Giants OL looked like a sieve and they somehow got 317 yards of offense (20 more than Bills). I was waiting for Bills to start dominating the entire game and never happened. Giants #31 offense yards/game and defense #26.... doubt it was a trap game, not with playing Patriots next.

Eagles looked like different team after Johnson injury... 49ers looked like different team without McCaffrey.

Bills lost 3 defensive starters the past two weeks and were playing against their former OC that developed Josh and hired/groomed their current OC. I thought it would still be a blowout, but clearly that wasn't in the cards. Maybe they should've taken that week 6 bye after the UK game that is offered before the season to all traveling abroad teams. Especially with the recent injuries, that might have worked out (they preferred a later bye). Luckily they escaped with a W.

 

[shopson67]

That dead cap hit says otherwise.

Yeah, that's a tough one to take. Russ hasn't been the problem thus far in Denver anyway.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Yeah, that's a tough one to take. Russ hasn't been the problem thus far in Denver anyway.

He has improved quite a bit this season. They traded picks for Payton and Russ that combo is set in stone through 2025 imo. You trade him next season you are looking at close to $90M dead cap hit. Astronomical compared to the Matt Ryan number.

 

[eaglesnut]

Chargers coach should be getting fired soon...

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

He has improved quite a bit this season. They traded picks for Payton and Russ that combo is set in stone through 2025 imo. You trade him next season you are looking at close to $90M dead cap hit. Astronomical compared to the Matt Ryan number.

That trade looks better for Seattle every week. Maybe Schneider can sell them another bag of magic beans for their draft pick.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Generally thinking this by conference

NFC Conference favorites:

Eagles
49ers

Viable NFC contender:

Lions

NFC pretender:

Seahawks
Cowboys
Rams
[Insert NFC South division winner here]

Will Be Happy Just to play in January:

Packers
Commanders
Falcons/Saints/Bucs division loser

No Man's Land:

Vikings

Ought to be tanking at this point

Giants
Bears
Panthers
Cardinals

AFC Favorites:

Chiefs
Bills

Viable AFC Contenders:

Dolphins
Bengals
Ravens

AFC Pretenders:

Jaguars
Browns
Steelers
Chargers

Will Be Happy Just to Play in January

Jets
Texans

No Man's Land:

Colts
Titans
Raiders

Ought to be Tanking at this Point:

Broncos
Patriots

 

[fastforward]

That dead cap hit says otherwise.

This is incorrect. A pre-June 2024 trade would accelerate $32M of future cap hits. Wilson is due $39M next year with the team only accounting for $21.4M of that figure in 2024. A trade would mean the Broncos would have have $10.6M less cap space in 2024, (The acquiring trade team would be accounting for the $21.4M rather than the Broncos who instead would have to deal with the $32M accelerated cap hits). However, the Broncos would have no future cap hits and they could use the increased future freed-up cap space to absorb other current contracts. The difficulty with a Wilson trade is not the cap situation but in finding a trade partner willing to pay Wilson $39M in 2024 and $37M in 2025.

 

[Shanemansj13]

This is incorrect. A pre-June 2024 trade would accelerate $32M of future cap hits. Wilson is due $39M next year with the team only accounting for $21.4M of that figure in 2024. A trade would mean the Broncos would have have $10.6M less cap space in 2024, (The acquiring trade team would be accounting for the $21.4M rather than the Broncos who instead would have to deal with the $32M accelerated cap hits). However, the Broncos would have no future cap hits and they could use the increased future freed-up cap space to absorb other current contracts. The difficulty with a Wilson trade is not the cap situation but in finding a trade partner willing to pay Wilson $39M in 2024 and $37M in 2025.

I didn't know they added this clause. They didn't do everything wrong, like you said, still going to be difficult to find bc it isn't practical for teams to wait till after June 1st to figure out their QB situation.

Another possibility is the Broncos keeping Wilson through 2024, then trying to trade him in 2025. In that situation, the Broncos would take a $49.6M dead money charge but free up $5.8M in cap space. The team would also be able to move the $37M base salary for 2025, which would become fully guaranteed in 2024.

 

[fastforward]

I didn't know they added this clause. They didn't do everything wrong, like you said, still going to be difficult to find bc it isn't practical for teams to wait till after June 1st to figure out their QB situation.

Another possibility is the Broncos keeping Wilson through 2024, then trying to trade him in 2025. In that situation, the Broncos would take a $49.6M dead money charge but free up $5.8M in cap space. The team would also be able to move the $37M base salary for 2025, which would become fully guaranteed in 2024.

Basically the current dead money figure of $107M is misleading. It includes the $14M that they will be forced to account for anyway and the $39M that is guaranteed for 2024 that the acquiring team will be responsible for. The 'real' current dead money figure is $46M, (which also includes the $14M that they have to account for in 2024).