MLB Winter Meetings

[Omar 382]

Huh? What's the problem. Looks good to me, moths.

You think Rupp and Knapp will combine for 30 home runs this year. You've been smoking too much crank with Dondrell in that Chester trap house of yours

 

[Omar 382]

 

[jvett77]

You think Rupp and Knapp will combine for 30 home runs this year. You've been smoking too much crank with Dondrell in that Chester trap house of yours

Rupp hit 16 in 120 games so it's not too extreme. Knapp hit 8 homers in 100 games so he has some power.

 

[Omar 382]

Rupp hit 16 in 120 games so it's not too extreme. Knapp hit 8 homers in 100 games so he has some power.

I was laughing not only at the fact that you think they will hit 30 home runs (which they 99% likely won't) but also the fact that you think that will connote success at the plate. Rupp hit 16 home runs last year with a .195 ISO, and still finished with a 99 wRC+. SLG pails in comparison to the production that OBP provides (.303 last year for Rupp), which is why I have such a problem with OPS assuming equal weight for each statistic, when the actual weight is somewhere around 1.8/1 OBP/SLG

 

[jvett77]

I was laughing not only at the fact that you think they will hit 30 home runs (which they 99% likely won't) but also the fact that you think that will connote success at the plate. Rupp hit 16 home runs last year with a .195 ISO, and still finished with a 99 wRC+. SLG pails in comparison to the production that OBP provides (.303 last year for Rupp), which is why I have such a problem with OPS assuming equal weight for each statistic, when the actual weight is somewhere around 1.8/1 OBP/SLG

I think Rupp is bound to improve. He had his best year in '16. He won't go in the other direction. Bank on it. No time to look at those stats you cited.

 

[Omar 382]

I think Rupp is bound to improve. He had his best year in '16. He won't go in the other direction. Bank on it. No time to look at those stats you cited.

"I'd rather be ignorant of facts that will be more predictive of actual future events than the intuitions I so dearly cling to"

 

[Omar 382]

Winter Meetings are over. Maybe I should make a new thread to catalog my insomnia

 

[jvett77]

Winter Meetings are over. Maybe I should make a new thread to catalog my insomnia

People who have insomnia need to be more physically active during the day and stay away from caffeine loaded soda. Have you done your 30 sit ups and pushups today? Physicians don't emphasize activity because they want to prescribe drugs to maintain their revenue cycle. Dr. Jvett has spoken.

 

[jvett77]

"I'd rather be ignorant of facts that will be more predictive of actual future events than the intuitions I so dearly cling to"

In general, no one's ever been able to accurately predict how a player will develop based on those stats.Or show me. We wouldn't have so many surprising busts if that were true. I think the BA, OBP, SLG carry more weight. imo.

 

[northeastphillyguy]

People who have insomnia need to be more physically active during the day and stay away from caffeine loaded soda. Have you done your 30 sit ups and pushups today? Physicians don't emphasize activity because they want to prescribe drugs to maintain their revenue cycle. Dr. Jvett has spoken.

Great comment! Dr jvett is right on he mark!

 

[Omar 382]

In general, no one's ever been able to accurately predict how a player will develop based on those stats.Or show me. We wouldn't have so many surprising busts if that were true. I think the BA, OBP, SLG carry more weight. imo.

 

[jvett77]

You're absolutely full glossy. You should give your proof that those metrics have predicted who will or won't make it in the ml. Generally, maybe they can say something about a guy's future prospects. Let's follow Rupp next year. I'll run naked in CBP outfield if doesn't hit 20+ homers.

 

[Omar 382]

You're absolutely full glossy. You should give your proof that those metrics have predicted who will or won't make it in the ml. Generally, maybe they can say something about a guy's future prospects. Let's follow Rupp next year. I'll run naked in CBP outfield if doesn't hit 20+ homers.

lol

 

[Omar 382]

You're absolutely full glossy. You should give your proof that those metrics have predicted who will or won't make it in the ml. Generally, maybe they can say something about a guy's future prospects. Let's follow Rupp next year. I'll run naked in CBP outfield if doesn't hit 20+ homers.

Do you even know the steps to making optimal decisions with uncertain probabilities? Decisions Analytics Framework? Data Visualization? Domain Knowledge? Data Transformation? You may have Domain Knowledge, but that's all. In baseball, like anything in life, there's no possible way to "predict who will or won't make it in the ml." If that was possible, we could see the future, and being a General Manager would be a moot point. You have to survey the past (catchers similar to Cameron Rupp), and then transform data to see what is likely to happen. Not what will happen, what is likely to happen. Hell, Cameron Rupp could hit 74 home runs next year. It's entirely possible. But is it likely?

Based on a perfect matching score of 1000, the three closest batters in MLB history to Rupp through age 27 (Rupp's age for most of 2016) are Ozzie Virgil (980), Dick Dietz (974), and Bill Nahorodny (970). How did they do at age 28, at least in terms of home runs?

Virgil- 19 home runs
Dietz- 22 home runs
Nahorodny- 4 home runs

This looks optimistic for Rupp, but it is very preliminary. (FWIW, none of the next 6 hitters on the list reached 20 home runs in their age 28 seasons.) Let's look at how many players with a career ISO of .163 in any of their age 20-27 seasons hit 20 home runs in their age 28 season. Here is my code:

We see there were 197 qualified seasons in which a player had an ISO of .163 or greater in their ages 20-27 seasons. Of those 197, a measly 43 hit 20 home runs in their age 28 season (22%). Let's take a look at those players:

Do any of them sound like Cameron fucking Rupp to you? The guy with a career wRC+ of 88? The mean wRC+ of these 43 players in their age 28 seasons was 127 by the way. Do you see Cameron Rupp jumping 39 points in wRC+ in one season? Do you even know what wRC+ is?

And then, to make your statement even more laughable, you claim that Rupp and Knapp will combine for 30 home runs, a number only 5 different teams has seen from their entire catching position in the last 3 seasons. I mean, you can't make this shit up. For the hell of it, and of course because I'm a Phillies fan, I hope you're right in the 0.1% chance that is possible. But motherfuck, Rupp and Knapp combining for 30 home runs and Rupp's offense being good is fucking hilarious. I mean, I'm dying over here for goodness sake!

 

[jvett77]

I'm on my way out for the day so For now I'm just going to say, Omar, that you've tried to explain your point in good detail. Why the code? If you ran the numbers, then we believe you. So I'm just going to say for now, generally, it doesn't matter how likely or unlikely it is that a player can hit a number of homers at a certain age, it still remains possible that Rupp will improve his HR total simply because he's been here for a few years, seeing NL pitching and has made steady progress. Maybe Rupp will be the 44th to make your list. I wonder where Luzinski falls. Later.

 

[Omar 382]

The code was so you know I'm not BS'ing you

 

[jvett77]

The code was so you know I'm not BS'ing you

You never bullshit.

 

[Omar 382]

You never bullshit.

Have you read my posts, bruh?

 

[Omar 382]

So, in my amphetamine infused stupor, I for some reason specified that the ISO of age 20-27 players should be greater than .163. This doesn't make sense, it should be less than .163 to see who is most similar to Rupp. Doing that, there are 742 seasons from players from 1876-2016 with an ISO of .163 or worse. Of those 742 seasons, only 139 hit 20 or more home runs in their age 28 season, for a 19% rate. Here are those players to do it. Again, how many have similar career trajectories to Rupp?

 

[northeastphillyguy]

So, in my amphetamine infused stupor, I for some reason specified that the ISO of age 20-27 players should be greater than .163. This doesn't make sense, it should be less than .163 to see who is most similar to Rupp. Doing that, there are 742 seasons from players from 1876-2016 with an ISO of .163 or worse. Of those 742 seasons, only 139 hit 20 or more home runs in their age 28 season, for a 19% rate. Here are those players to do it. Again, how many have similar career trajectories to Rupp?
View attachment 152379
View attachment 152380View attachment 152382

So, in my amphetamine infused stupor, I for some reason specified that the ISO of age 20-27 players should be greater than .163. This doesn't make sense, it should be less than .163 to see who is most similar to Rupp. Doing that, there are 742 seasons from players from 1876-2016 with an ISO of .163 or worse. Of those 742 seasons, only 139 hit 20 or more home runs in their age 28 season, for a 19% rate. Here are those players to do it. Again, how many have similar career trajectories to Rupp?
View attachment 152379
View attachment 152380View attachment 152382

So, in my amphetamine infused stupor, I for some reason specified that the ISO of age 20-27 players should be greater than .163. This doesn't make sense, it should be less than .163 to see who is most similar to Rupp. Doing that, there are 742 seasons from players from 1876-2016 with an ISO of .163 or worse. Of those 742 seasons, only 139 hit 20 or more home runs in their age 28 season, for a 19% rate. Here are those players to do it. Again, how many have similar career trajectories to Rupp?
View attachment 152379
View attachment 152380View attachment 152382

Wow! There is no way possible for us to know if you left anybody off the list. But it is amazing to think of
what you went through to compile it!