MLB Winter Meetings

[Omar 382]

Wow! There is no way possible for us to know if you left anybody off the list. But it is amazing to think of
what you went through to compile it!

That's why I gave you the code, so you can plug it in yourself. I suspected that some disingenuous asshole would question the validity of my output, so there you go. I did most of the heavy lifting; it would take you about 20 seconds to see if I'm lying

 

[Omar 382]

One other thing that I forgot to mention is that of the 143 players who did indeed hit 20 or more home runs after not doing so previously, 94 of them had a wRC+ of 120 or better in the next season. 78 had a wRC+ of 130 or better, 54 were at 140 or better. The median wRC+ of the 143 players was 134. Cameron Rupp has a career wRC+ of 88.

 

[Cedrique]

Do you even know the steps to making optimal decisions with uncertain probabilities? Decisions Analytics Framework? Data Visualization? Domain Knowledge? Data Transformation? You may have Domain Knowledge, but that's all. In baseball, like anything in life, there's no possible way to "predict who will or won't make it in the ml." If that was possible, we could see the future, and being a General Manager would be a moot point. You have to survey the past (catchers similar to Cameron Rupp), and then transform data to see what is likely to happen. Not what will happen, what is likely to happen. Hell, Cameron Rupp could hit 74 home runs next year. It's entirely possible. But is it likely?

Based on a perfect matching score of 1000, the three closest batters in MLB history to Rupp through age 27 (Rupp's age for most of 2016) are Ozzie Virgil (980), Dick Dietz (974), and Bill Nahorodny (970). How did they do at age 28, at least in terms of home runs?

Virgil- 19 home runs
Dietz- 22 home runs
Nahorodny- 4 home runs

This looks optimistic for Rupp, but it is very preliminary. (FWIW, none of the next 6 hitters on the list reached 20 home runs in their age 28 seasons.) Let's look at how many players with a career ISO of .163 in any of their age 20-27 seasons hit 20 home runs in their age 28 season. Here is my code:
View attachment 152366
We see there were 197 qualified seasons in which a player had an ISO of .163 or greater in their ages 20-27 seasons. Of those 197, a measly 43 hit 20 home runs in their age 28 season (22%). Let's take a look at those players:
View attachment 152367
Do any of them sound like Cameron fucking Rupp to you? The guy with a career wRC+ of 88? The mean wRC+ of these 43 players in their age 28 seasons was 127 by the way. Do you see Cameron Rupp jumping 39 points in wRC+ in one season? Do you even know what wRC+ is?

And then, to make your statement even more laughable, you claim that Rupp and Knapp will combine for 30 home runs, a number only 5 different teams has seen from their entire catching position in the last 3 seasons. I mean, you can't make this shit up. For the hell of it, and of course because I'm a Phillies fan, I hope you're right in the 0.1% chance that is possible. But motherfuck, Rupp and Knapp combining for 30 home runs and Rupp's offense being good is fucking hilarious. I mean, I'm dying over here for goodness sake!

Well, yeah that's obvious. But I'm not sure why you included the code. I did it in my head and came up with the same results--and it really wasn't that hard..

 

[Omar 382]

Well, yeah that's obvious. But I'm not sure why you included the code. I did it in my head and came up with the same results--and it really wasn't that hard..

I'll accept if I'm wrong, but don't fuck with me. Is my code right or not?

 

[Cedrique]

I'm not sure--I sent it to be analyzed

 

[Omar 382]

I'm not sure--I sent it to be analyzed

I actually misinterpreted the calculations. Rupp won't hit 20 home runs, but Knapp will, and Rupp will hit 10

 

[Cedrique]

I actually misinterpreted the calculations. Rupp won't hit 20 home runs, but Knapp will, and Rupp will hit 10

That's all irrelevant. Alfaro is good for 30 to 40 bombs easy.

 

[jvett77]

First of all, Omar, you didn't give any ISO perspective: Excellent ISO =.250, great=.200, above avg=.170, avg=.140.

Your reliance on a single sabre stat, career average ISO, while comparing it to other more seasoned players is meaningless. It cannot yield predictive results because it does not take into account player growth. After Rupp was finally given the job over fat Carlos, he achieved a "great" ISO of near .200. Greg! (Ryan Howard has a career ISO of .257. His 2016 ISO was also .257.)

Just looking at Rupp's steadily increasing ISO itself, attributed to his dramatic increase in x-base hits - doubles and homers in the last year alone, should tell you something. He is headed for a significant productive season. In that respect, the ISO stat by itself is highly predictive. But his .163 ISO average ISO can't be relied on. Assuming Rupp stays healthy and avoids drugs (lol), he could well achieve an excellent ISO of .250 next year. In fact he will likely get a wild guess 35 doubles and 25 homers. I like that ISO stat. What do you think of this bullshit? PhD jvett has spoken.

YR__PA__HR__ISO XBASE HITS
13___14___0__.077____1
14___64___0__.067____4
15 __299__9__.141____19
16__419__16__.195___43

 

[northeastphillyguy]

I don't care anymore! How about OBP? Amaro said that it's not that important!

 

[Omar 382]

First of all, Omar, you didn't give any ISO perspective: Excellent ISO =.250, great=.200, above avg=.170, avg=.140.

Your reliance on a single sabre stat, career average ISO, while comparing it to other more seasoned players is meaningless. It cannot yield predictive results because it does not take into account player growth. After Rupp was finally given the job over fat Carlos, he achieved a "great" ISO of near .200. Greg! (Ryan Howard has a career ISO of .257. His 2016 ISO was also .257.)

Just looking at Rupp's steadily increasing ISO itself, attributed to his dramatic increase in x-base hits - doubles and homers in the last year alone, should tell you something. He is headed for a significant productive season. In that respect, the ISO stat by itself is highly predictive. But his .163 ISO average ISO can't be relied on. Assuming Rupp stays healthy and avoids drugs (lol), he could well achieve an excellent ISO of .250 next year. In fact he will likely get a wild guess 35 doubles and 25 homers. I like that ISO stat. What do you think of this bullshit? PhD jvett has spoken.

YR__PA__HR__ISO XBASE HITS
13___14___0__.077____1
14___64___0__.067____4
15 __299__9__.141____19
16__419__16__.195___43

I think it's major bullshit, and for your sake I hope you're joking, and if not, may God have mercy on your soul

 

[Omar 382]

First of all, Omar, you didn't give any ISO perspective: Excellent ISO =.250, great=.200, above avg=.170, avg=.140.

Your reliance on a single sabre stat, career average ISO, while comparing it to other more seasoned players is meaningless. It cannot yield predictive results because it does not take into account player growth. After Rupp was finally given the job over fat Carlos, he achieved a "great" ISO of near .200. Greg! (Ryan Howard has a career ISO of .257. His 2016 ISO was also .257.)

Just looking at Rupp's steadily increasing ISO itself, attributed to his dramatic increase in x-base hits - doubles and homers in the last year alone, should tell you something. He is headed for a significant productive season. In that respect, the ISO stat by itself is highly predictive. But his .163 ISO average ISO can't be relied on. Assuming Rupp stays healthy and avoids drugs (lol), he could well achieve an excellent ISO of .250 next year. In fact he will likely get a wild guess 35 doubles and 25 homers. I like that ISO stat. What do you think of this bullshit? PhD jvett has spoken.

YR__PA__HR__ISO XBASE HITS
13___14___0__.077____1
14___64___0__.067____4
15 __299__9__.141____19
16__419__16__.195___43

Can I make this my signature? I'll take "Things someone with Down Syndrome would say about baseball for 400, Alex"

 

[jvett77]

I think it's major bullshit, and for your sake I hope you're joking, and if not, may God have mercy on your soul

For your abuse of sabremetrics, report to the CBP basement tomorrow where your bare ass will be spanked severely by Klentak and all of his maintenance personnel.

 

[jvett77]

Can I make this my signature? I'll take "Things someone with Down Syndrome would say about baseball for 400, Alex"

Sure. It would then warn folks not to take your bullshit very seriously at all and save them from numbers abuse.

 

[jvett77]

I don't care anymore! How about OBP? Amaro said that it's not that important!

I was going to use more columns but I didn't want to give Omar a headache. I felt the excitement of seeing Rupp's increasing ISO would be enough.

 

[Omar 382]

I was going to use more columns but I didn't want to give Omar a headache. I felt the excitement of seeing Rupp's increasing ISO would be enough.

I may be sounding like _phillies_, but seriously dude, your columns are shit. Why don't you download R and actually format your bullshit or something. If you're going to bullshit, at least do it right man!

 

[jvett77]

I may be sounding like _phillies_, but seriously dude, your columns are shit? Why don't you download R and actually format your bullshit. If you're going to bullshit, at least do it right man!

What is R, fucker, I'm here to learn. My brain is ready for input.

 

[Omar 382]

What is R, fucker, I'm here to learn. My brain is ready for input.

Before you learn about R, you need to learn about Google

 

[jvett77]

Formatting data for output in a table can be a bit of a pain in R according to some folks.

 

[northeastphillyguy]

What is R, fucker, I'm here to learn. My brain is ready for input.

R is a form of statistical soft wear computing.

 

[jvett77]

R is a form of statistical soft wear computing.

Oh, software. lol. Yeah, it's actually HTML code which you can add using the Insert code tool bar option. I should try it when I'm in the mood or drunk. That Omar is a bright helpful bastard, isn't he?