Lovie Smith's Gift to Chicago

[Clayton]

I dont think it is going to matter in the least.

Bears will take Anderson. Houston will take probably Young (maybe Stroud when it all plays out). Same situation that we would have seen if their positions in the draft were flopped.

The QB's in this draft flat out arent good enough of prospects IMO for teams to sell the farm for and trade up for the #1 overall pick. Each one has some pretty big warts when you break them down. People have to remember it is EARLY in the draft process. At this point last year, people were saying Malik Willis was going to be a top 10 pick.

And Anderson is too good of a prospect for Chicago to drop out of position to take him without getting a gigantic package for.

Hell in the end the only thing that this is likely to accomplish is that the Bears will end up paying Anderson more than they would have if they would have had the overall #2 pick.

It is earlier in the draft process than normal but the gist Ive been hearing is that Anthony Richardson is ahead of Malik Willis as a prospect and Richardson is Qb4 at best.

What teams think about Young, Stroud, and Levis is everything in this conversation. If one of them is Andrew Luck and every team will do anything to trade up then the Bears will draft him and ship out Fields imo.

If Young is clearly better than the other two then I could see the Bears being able to get the Texans to trade up and give up a lot in a bidding war with teams like the Colts. I just cant imagine the Texans organization is dumb enough to have not seen this coming when their last game was against the Colts. I dont think this scenario is as likely as what initially appears and if it is then Houston is clearly a hot mess. I just dont think that should be the default assumption.

 

[Anointed One]

It is earlier in the draft process than normal but the gist Ive been hearing is that Anthony Richardson is ahead of Malik Willis as a prospect and Richardson is Qb4 at best.

What teams think about Young, Stroud, and Levis is everything in this conversation. If one of them is Andrew Luck and every team will do anything to trade up then the Bears will draft him and ship out Fields imo.

If Young is clearly better than the other two then I could see the Bears being able to get the Texans to trade up and give up a lot in a bidding war with teams like the Colts. I just cant imagine the Texans organization is dumb enough to have not seen this coming when their last game was against the Colts. I dont think this scenario is as likely as what initially appears and if it is then Houston is clearly a hot mess. I just dont think that should be the default assumption.

Good points... When teams see Levis at the combine, they may say he's a can't miss and absolutely fall in love with him... I can see Levis going 2nd overall out of the QB's...

 

[Clayton]

Good points... When teams see Levis at the combine, they may say he's a can't miss and absolutely fall in love with him... I can see Levis going 2nd overall out of the QB's...

The argument I've heard floated out there already is that Levis is used to playing under pressure so they can actually measure how well he plays in tougher situations. Stroud doesnt have the large sample size under pressure.

Considering we've seen Justin Fields drop and he was a top college prospect and Dwayne Haskins dropped and he was a decently well regarded prospect then we've seen Ohio State QBs surrounded by talent drop twice already.

This could go in any number of directions. This should be the most exciting first round in years, id imagine

 

[Dolemite censored]

It's going to look even worse when he shows up as a Bears assistant coach next year...

He coached the Bears into the SB with RGIII (Rex Grossman III) as his QB.

Show some respect.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

He coached the Bears into the SB with RGIII (Rex Grossman III) as his QB.

Show some respect.

 

[ducky]

It is earlier in the draft process than normal but the gist Ive been hearing is that Anthony Richardson is ahead of Malik Willis as a prospect and Richardson is Qb4 at best.

What teams think about Young, Stroud, and Levis is everything in this conversation. If one of them is Andrew Luck and every team will do anything to trade up then the Bears will draft him and ship out Fields imo.

If Young is clearly better than the other two then I could see the Bears being able to get the Texans to trade up and give up a lot in a bidding war with teams like the Colts. I just cant imagine the Texans organization is dumb enough to have not seen this coming when their last game was against the Colts. I dont think this scenario is as likely as what initially appears and if it is then Houston is clearly a hot mess. I just dont think that should be the default assumption.

The Bears twisting the Texans arm to give up something to move up one spot is really the only trade I think is possible.

I just cant imagine Indy giving what it would take to move up. You deplete your future too much doing it. It is why it is so rare that we have seen moving up multiple spots in the top 5 picks.

I can only think of 2 times that teams have moved up from outside of the top 3 into the top 3 in the last 15-20 years. RGIII and Trey Lance. And that really hasnt worked out for either team (thus far at least). Am I forgetting any?

The cost of doing so is why it is so rare.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

The Bears twisting the Texans arm to give up something to move up one spot is really the only trade I think is possible.

I just cant imagine Indy giving what it would take to move up. You deplete your future too much doing it. It is why it is so rare that we have seen moving up multiple spots in the top 5 picks.

I can only think of 2 times that teams have moved up from outside of the top 3 into the top 3 in the last 15-20 years. RGIII and Trey Lance. And that really hasnt worked out for either team (thus far at least). Am I forgetting any?

The cost of doing so is why it is so rare.

seems like recent history. The #1 spot gets stuck in the #1 spot.

 

[Anointed One]

I can only think of 2 times that teams have moved up from outside of the top 3 into the top 3 in the last 15-20 years. RGIII and Trey Lance. And that really hasnt worked out for either team (thus far at least). Am I forgetting any?

The cost of doing so is why it is so rare.

It's definitely rare and I don't know that many that actually worked out... I only looked this up mainly for my own curiousity...

2018 Jets moved up from #6 to #3 in 2018 for Sam Darnold

2017, Chicago moved up from #3 to #2 to draft Trubisky

2016 the Rams traded the farm to move up from #15 to #1 overall to draft Goff...

Also in 2016, Eagles moved up from #8 to #2 overall to draft to get Wentz

2001 Falcons traded their #5 overall to the Chargers for the #1 overall pick to draft Vick

1998 Chargers send their #3 overall pick to Zona for their #2 overall pick to draft Ryan Leaf

1997 Rams trade up from #6 overall to the #1 overall pick to select Orlando Pace

1994 Bengals trade their #5 overall for the #1 overall to select Ki-Jana Carter

1991 Dallas trades their #11 overall for the #1 overall pick to select Russell Maryland

1990 Indianapolis sends All-Pro guard Chris Hinton, wide receiver Andre Rison, a fifth-round pick and a 1991 first-round pick to Atlanta for the Falcons' first-round pick (No. 1 overall) and select Jeff George

 

[Schmoopy1000]

It's definitely rare and I don't know that many that actually worked out... I only looked this up mainly for my own curiousity...

2018 Jets moved up from #6 to #3 in 2018 for Sam Darnold

2017, Chicago moved up from #3 to #2 to draft Trubisky

2016 the Rams traded the farm to move up from #15 to #1 overall to draft Goff...

Also in 2016, Eagles moved up from #8 to #2 overall to draft to get Wentz

2001 Falcons traded their #5 overall to the Chargers for the #1 overall pick to draft Vick

1998 Chargers send their #3 overall pick to Zona for their #2 overall pick to draft Ryan Leaf

1997 Rams trade up from #6 overall to the #1 overall pick to select Orlando Pace

1994 Bengals trade their #5 overall for the #1 overall to select Ki-Jana Carter

1991 Dallas trades their #11 overall for the #1 overall pick to select Russell Maryland

1990 Indianapolis sends All-Pro guard Chris Hinton, wide receiver Andre Rison, a fifth-round pick and a 1991 first-round pick to Atlanta for the Falcons' first-round pick (No. 1 overall) and select Jeff George

Well Pace was a good career.
but reading this doesnt seem like a good move to move up into the top 3.

 

[Clayton]

It's definitely rare and I don't know that many that actually worked out... I only looked this up mainly for my own curiousity...

2018 Jets moved up from #6 to #3 in 2018 for Sam Darnold

2017, Chicago moved up from #3 to #2 to draft Trubisky

2016 the Rams traded the farm to move up from #15 to #1 overall to draft Goff...

Also in 2016, Eagles moved up from #8 to #2 overall to draft to get Wentz

2001 Falcons traded their #5 overall to the Chargers for the #1 overall pick to draft Vick

1998 Chargers send their #3 overall pick to Zona for their #2 overall pick to draft Ryan Leaf

1997 Rams trade up from #6 overall to the #1 overall pick to select Orlando Pace

1994 Bengals trade their #5 overall for the #1 overall to select Ki-Jana Carter

1991 Dallas trades their #11 overall for the #1 overall pick to select Russell Maryland

1990 Indianapolis sends All-Pro guard Chris Hinton, wide receiver Andre Rison, a fifth-round pick and a 1991 first-round pick to Atlanta for the Falcons' first-round pick (No. 1 overall) and select Jeff George

I feel there is enough data to suggest that while you want a QB....its not exactly a science as to which one to pick.

In 2021, the franchise QBs are probably QB1 and QB4
In 2020, the franchise QBs are probably QB1, QB2, QB3 and QB5
In 2019, the franchise QBs are probably QB1 and QB2
In 2018, the franchise QBs are probably QB3 and QB5
In 2017, the franchise QBs are probably QB2 and QB3

QB3 (Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert) has hit just as often as QB1 (Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence) in a five year sample. Assuming you ignore Watsons off the field issues. QB2 really isnt that far off (Patrick Mahomes, Tua, Daniel Jones).

You could make an argument that picking any of the top 3 QBs is probably about a 60% chance of paying off. 30% shot at QB4 or 5. Hard to justify trading up imo.

 

[Anointed One]

I feel there is enough data to suggest that while you want a QB....its not exactly a science as to which one to pick.

In 2021, the franchise QBs are probably QB1 and QB4
In 2020, the franchise QBs are probably QB1, QB2, QB3 and QB5
In 2019, the franchise QBs are probably QB1 and QB2
In 2018, the franchise QBs are probably QB3 and QB5
In 2017, the franchise QBs are probably QB2 and QB3

QB3 (Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert) has hit just as often as QB1 (Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence) in a five year sample. Assuming you ignore Watsons off the field issues. QB2 really isnt that far off (Patrick Mahomes, Tua, Daniel Jones).

You could make an argument that picking any of the top 3 QBs is probably about a 60% chance of paying off. 30% shot at QB4 or 5. Hard to justify trading up imo.

Yes, I'm not a fan at all about trading up into the top 5 one bit... If I'm in the top 5, I'd draft where I'm at or more than not, trade down in the draft...

 

[Jiddy]

I used top 5 for effect LOL. I dont track the bears. Quit ruining my fun.
The bears do know defense, but your 1st round picks on offense sucks. So 3D chess for the Texans still applies. Although was surprised how many 1st rds you guys were missing.
Here's your offensive players drafted.
2021 Justin Fields QB (sucks IMO)
2017 Mitchell Trubisky QB (LOL & moved up into top 5 to get) This is probably where my thoughts were.
2015 Kevin White WR (top ten)
2013 Kyle Long G (usually cant go wrong with 1st rd OL)
2011 Gabe Carimi T (have no idea who that is, so that could be good or bad)
2008 Chris Williams T
2007 Greg Olsen TE (A rare good 1st rd TE pick but mainly for another team)
2005 Cedric Benson RB (top 5 pick LOL)
2003 Rex Grossman QB
2002 Marc Colombo T (sucks he got injured for you guys)
2001 David Terrell WR (Top ten pick)
1999 Cade McNown QB
1998 Curtis Enis RB (Top 5 pick LOL)
1995 Rashaan Salaam RB
1993 Curtis Conway WR (top ten)

Bold is guys you drafted in the front part of the 1st rd.
So as you can see. Doesnt bode a lot of confidence, if they went offense, which I am sure the Texans will do

Oh...So we're backing into the entire first round now for the past 5 GM's, none of which is currently in charge of the team, in a feeble attempt to try to make a point about the #1 pick-a pick we haven't had since the 1940s?

Not a single one of those players were drafted by Ryan Poles. Would any of this apply if the Bears hired a GM that has taken proven offensive players? Of course it wouldn't...So why do we not afford, at minimum, a benefit of the doubt for Poles here?

Your premise is ridiculous. "Oh it's the Bears so any offensive player taken in the first round is probably gonna suck." Very narrowminded viewpoint. Sadly the pure statistical probabilities on ALL first rounders (most don't pan out) might actually have my eyes reading "I told you so" jabber from your corner in a few years.

Just the thought...Pain.

 

[Clayton]

Yes, I'm not a fan at all about trading up into the top 5 one bit... If I'm in the top 5, I'd draft where I'm at or more than not, trade down in the draft...

I think Im okay with it if your team already has offensive talent around it.

If you look at the QBs that have had success, they've also had elite receiving weapons for the most part. Herbert with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Mahomes with Hill, Kelce and Hunt. Watson had Hopkins and Fuller. Murray also got Hopkins. Allen got Diggs. Tua got Hill and Waddle. Burrow got Chase, Higgins and more. Lamar Jackson they changed their whole offense. Jalen Hurts they got AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Seattle takes a QB? Qb in a good position. Panthers trade up for a QB? Eh...

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

All I can say for Lovie is, regardless of the thought process, good on him for letting his team walk off the field Sunday with a good feeling after a horrible season. And costing the pick to that P.O.S. owner is poetic justice. The look on McNair's face was priceless.

As for the pick, a bunch of debate will happen until the draft but I don't think it will make much of a difference in the long run. This team finds ways of losing even when a franchise QB puts up MVP numbers.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I’d rather have Carter.

Anderson is versatile and the best player in the draft hands down. Carter is a freak but you don’f take him #1. Anderson can do everything on the field

 

[Balljim55]

I would rather the Panthers stand pat where they are or even trade back a bit. I would love to make a move for Drake Mays next year.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I think now that Denver won and Arizona and Indy leapfrogged the pick for Seattle, it changes my outlook because Anderson and Carter might not be on the board. So if they draft a QB but still try to keep Geno on a short term deal as a bridge, okay. We will have to see what's available though. Levis has that upside but damn, he's a turnover machine. And turnovers don't fit with Pete's system at all. Seattle could trade down and stockpile picks for 2024 too but with this rookie class doing as well as it has and lots of picks coming up, it doesn't seem necessary.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I think now that Denver won and Arizona and Indy leapfrogged the pick for Seattle, it changes my outlook because Anderson and Carter might not be on the board. So if they draft a QB but still try to keep Geno on a short term deal as a bridge, okay. We will have to see what's available though. Levis has that upside but damn, he's a turnover machine. And turnovers don't fit with Pete's system at all. Seattle could trade down and stockpile picks for 2024 too but with this rookie class doing as well as it has and lots of picks coming up, it doesn't seem necessary.

Levis is overrated but I kinda compare him to Josh Allen, he has some amazing physical traits and a dream QB but production on the field isn't great. To be fair, Josh Allen had one of the best transformations in NFL history. Some team will be intrigued by turning him into a Josh Allen but that seems extremely unlikely. The dude went from an inaccurate QB to one of the most accurate, still has turnover issues but he had all the physical tools, big arm and size coming into the draft. To me there is a top 2 and then a big gap. Richardson should go back for another year, he is a Jordan Love type of project. He isn't close to be ready for the NFL.

 

[PDay8810]

Lovie played on one of Texas's greatest high school championship teams. Everything about him has always said strong family values.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Levis is overrated but I kinda compare him to Josh Allen, he has some amazing physical traits and a dream QB but production on the field isn't great. To be fair, Josh Allen had one of the best transformations in NFL history. Some team will be intrigued by turning him into a Josh Allen but that seems extremely unlikely. The dude went from an inaccurate QB to one of the most accurate, still has turnover issues but he had all the physical tools, big arm and size coming into the draft. To me there is a top 2 and then a big gap. Richardson should go back for another year, he is a Jordan Love type of project. He isn't close to be ready for the NFL.

I agree on both Levis and Richardson. I don't like Young's size either. Definite talent but the "little QB" model is beginning to scare teams away, I think. Stroud is probably the best prospect coming out but who knows. Indy and Houston very likely taking those top 2 off the board anyway and really, beyond them, there doesn't appear to be much worth taking in the first round.