Free agency, as it applies to the Redlegs

[JohnU]

In our effort to rebuild the franchise in the image of the Big Red Machine, we have seen the following:

LHP Sean Marshall elected free agency.
LHP Manny Parra elected free agency.
C Brayan Pena elected free agency.

Alfredo Simon and Mat Latos are free agents.

Man, I HATE losing Sean Marshall.

Also free to fly are: Kansas City (Cueto, Zobrist, Young, Madson etc.) and Mets (Murphy, Cespedes) ....

Hell, half the MLB roster is a free agent.

Sam LeCure outright to Louisville Bats.
RHP Burke Badenhop elected free agency.
LF Skip Schumaker elected free agency.


Drew Stubbs, Aaron Harang and LaTroy Hawkins are free agents.

Mike Leake is a free agent.

All this in addition to the fact that Hootie, Henry and Howie, our other left fielders, were all sent back to the minors.


Josh Smith outright to Louisville Bats.
David Holmberg outright to Louisville Bats.
Brennan Boesch outright to Louisville Bats.
Collin Balester outright to Louisville Bats.
Nate Adcock outright to Louisville Bats.
Jason Bourgeois outright to Louisville Bats.
Kristopher Negron outright to Louisville Bats.

All in all, it would appear that the Reds have less to fix than some other teams, discounting the Cubs and the Cardinals who are still in the comfort zone with their main contracts.

The Parrots will have to fill in at some spots, but their core seems to be in place.
I don't think it matters yet in Milwaukee.

Cardinals on the list:
RHP Matt Belisle elected free agency.
LHP Randy Choate elected free agency.
RF Jason Heyward elected free agency.
RHP John Lackey elected free agency.
1B Mark Reynolds elected free agency.
RHP Carlos Villanueva elected free agency.

Cubbos on the list:

RHP Trevor Cahill elected free agency.
LF Chris Denorfia elected free agency.
CF Dexter Fowler elected free agency.
RHP Dan Haren elected free agency.
RHP Tommy Hunter elected free agency.
CF Austin Jackson elected free agency.
RHP Jason Motte elected free agency.
RHP Fernando Rodney elected free agency.

But there are MANY MANY MANY left fielders on the market. Walt must be having an organism right now.

And Broxton, naturally.

Two pretty interesting guys are Orioles Chris Davis and Matt Wieters, both free agents.

I did not see Ronny Cedeno's name on the list.

 

[JohnU]

And oh, I forgot ....................

 

[Redsfan1507]

Nice list...IMO, this year in MLB, there are about 6 players that are "elite", and will get huge contracts-and half of them (including Cueto) are probaby already damaged goods. There are maybe a dozen that their teams will actually miss after they leave. The rest, are going to be a blessing leaving for more money, opening a roster spot and reduced payroll opportunity for at worst, an equal talent player.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Abomination in Washington...or maybe Obamanation... I think the retraction of Bud Black's offer before he could accept is an obvious forced minority hire by MLB. To add salt to the wounds, they had to play Dusty more than Bud Black. The Nats said salary was a consideration in the original Bud Black offer.

IMO, Dusty is a miserably bitterly, stubborn, no accountability, lazy ass manager that doesn't know his left from his right, the difference in a steal situation or a pitch out play, and the most predicatble, low urgency, homer or starve offensive manager in a hundred years. UNfortunately, Dusty couldn't win it all with a team of historic PED users, so he isn't winning with pitching any time soon.

Other than that, I think Dusty is a great guy.

 

[JohnU]

I can buy any argument against Baker that includes most of that, so long as it stops short of the "Prior and Wood" bullshit that really was a product of some Chicago Sun-Times scribe. But that's really not the point of this thread. I can see some of these free agents signing minor-league deals, going to camp and beating out the long list of guys named "Pedro" or "Alchimedes" who get a non-roster invitation.

Where Cincy goes with this is pretty much relative to what we've seen in the past. I don't expect much change. A few ragarms will be signed, sent to Louisville where they will fill out the rotation while the real pitching prospects will be ... dunno ... at Pensacola.

Expect at least a Latin-speaking middle infielder to sign, a guy who has a career of 6 home runs, 15 doubles, hits .228 and has an OBA of about .321. But a sharp glove, maybe a switch hitter.

I would think that the Reds would have been smarter to trade Brayan Pena in July instead of letting him walk. He's a catcher, speaks 2 languages and would have helped somebody down the stretch. Bad move there.

ON that list, Fowler is an appealing option in the outfield, alleging the Reds finally decided Hamilton can't hit.

I have not studied the entire list, which probably has already expanded.

 

[chico ruiz]

nice work with your post johnu. thanks for taking the time to do the comparisons. i really do appreciate it when posters take just a little extra time to explain and support , with substantive evidence, the crux of their argument. i don't mind extra reading. in fact, i enjoy it.

1507. good ol' 1507. what's the significance of 1-5-0-7 anyway? i've always been slightly curious about that. nevertheless, you sound a lot more bitter than dusty ever was. i'm not a fan of jocketty's, but i don't resort to crazy-ass social / political stereotypes, or guess work. and i got news for you buddy, that's exactly what it is; the ravings of a madman. the worst i've called wally is 'pinky,' which, i will admit, is a little childish. but, you take the cake 1507. try staying with us here on mother earth. i was away for awhile (covering baseball, which makes me feel extremely lucky and humbled), but i've read some of your recent posts on other threads, and you're like a jack russell that desperately needs obedience training. 90% of your posts are informed, experience related, baseball knowledgable gems. 10% are bug-up-the-ass unrelated irrelevant horseshit. if your "then, after Phillips only .300 season as a #1, he fell right back to hitting him 4th the next season" was accurate -about dusty- i'd entertain it as evidentiary of a larger point you were trying to make. but, as usual, when you start salivating over dusty, you exaggerate, misinform, and / or fabricate. one of the things that dusty did fairly well was piece together line-ups that could produce enough runs to win games. phillips was all over the line up in 2011. rolen only played in 60 games. gomes was gomes. a dead red guess hitter if there ever was one. same thing happened in 2012; they couldn't keep rolen (bad wing) on the field. then votto got hurt. in 2013 ludwick went down on opening day. in fact, mackanin and narron had phillips either batting second or clean up -between junior and dunn- in 2007. why? the reason is simple 1507. phillips was the best and, in most cases, only matchup alternative. brandon is one of those weirdos that tends to hit the ball when it's pitched toward him. your hamilton / phillips comparison is ridiculous and chock full of hypocrisy. if you're going to make a statistical analysis like that, do the reader a favor and quantify it with the red's obvious lack of depth. all the managers mentioned above would have done the same thing with phillips when they considered the alternatives. that being, of course, there weren't any. you have a problem with dusty. fine. you are absolutely entitled to your opinion. feel free to keep spewing it forth. but, don't try to slip half-truths past fans that know the game.

should dusty have intentionally walked arias? as it turns out, probably so. did he injure cueto by overuse? no. did he make a costly error on a ground ball to third base? no. was he the pitcher that gave-in and grooved a right over the heart of the plate thigh-high straight as an arrow 90mph fastball to posey? no. is chapman still in the bullpen because of dusty? no. we're too old to bullshit each other. there are no conspiracy theories and former or current managers to blame. the truth is, the reds, as an organization, are too far gone now -based almost exclusively on upper management decisions made (and not made) since 2008- to be competitive in the NL central for the foreseeable future. nearly every aspect of the organization -on and off the field- is in disarray. my god….it's a mess. if you are going to general manage it like an expansion team, it's going to perform like an expansion team.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

There's a difference in philosophy and opinion. Opinions are based on personal belief regardless of being biased or unsubstantiated, philosophy is supported by evidence. I like reading other posters philosophy, but don't put much stock in opinions.

I see that the Reds promoted Assistant GM Dick Williams to GM. Walt remains President of Baseball Operations and in other words it's business as usual. Williams role the past few seasons has been the watch dog on contracts, transactions, and CBA compliance. He's been in Cincinnati for around 10 years and the move isn't surprising, but maybe disappointing if as a fan you think the team needs a change of direction. It fortifies that the Reds think they are on the right track....I don't agree.

Free agent signings as they relate to the near term future success of the club is nearly irrelevant to me. I think most of us will agree this team is more than a couple years away from being a serious contender and any 1-2 year free agent signings are neither building blocks or part of solution. The reality is it may keep the team from loosing 100+ games, but whether it's 95 or 100, it's of little consolation to me.

I like playing GM as most fans do, so the topic is relevant from a fan perspective. It's interesting to hear the different opinions on the current players and potential free agents that people see as players that could help their team.

 

[JohnU]

Greinke and Cueto contracts will have more than a marginal impact on what teams are likely to spend this winter. Greinke may end up right where he is, which would be the best possible outcome. Cueto? The thinking is that he's damaged in some way, though his W.S. performance suggests otherwise. I just think he had trouble getting his feet on the ground in K.C. I think the Royals could sign him but probably won't.

If I am the Reds, I take a stab at Matt Wieters. Barnhart and Mesoraco are both appealing choices for possible trades. Trade Mesoraco? Why not? This team is stuck in the mud and pretending the guys who got us there are the guys who will get us there in the future ... it's not gonna work. Mesoraco either plays left field, catches, or hits the highway. Wieters forces that to happen. Barnhart is more than adequate twice a week and has become a fair hitter, despite the belief that he isn't. He seems to be capable of learning how to play at the top level. An odd trait, to be sure.

What I hope does NOT happen is that the team dumps a lot of money into relievers. We were strapped before with Marshall/Broxton/Madson contracts for guys who haven't contributed anything except jerseys in the pro shop.

The bullpen should be better anyhow, just because removing bad wood is never a bad thing.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Cueto threw a nice game two in the WS, but other than that I'd say the Royals were disappointed with him. They'd already signed Volquez for two years and a option and apparently viewed Johnny as the number two heading into the Post Season. Cueto only started 2 games in the Post Season while Volquez got the ball 4 times. There's either a health concern or a lack of confidence in Cueto on the Royals part.

I wouldn't disagree with the Reds trading anyone on the roster if it improves the team moving forward. Assuming this team is a minimum of 4-5 years from contending there aren't many players that would be apart of the roster in 2020 anyway. Difficult to see any move helping in the short term, but I'd like to see some form of stategy that suggest they have a reasonable target season in mind to seriously contend. Hanging onto players that won't be apart of that just to sell a few more tickets isn't the strategy I'm looking for.

 

[JohnU]

Cueto suffered from a dont-give-a-fuck attitude his last 6 weeks in Cincy. I didn't follow him much after he got to KC but he will still get ace money, probably shouldn't. Aside from about 5 guys in MLB, most are just guys who do what they should do -- go out and pitch.

 

[Redsfan1507]

IMO, Dusty sucks. I'm bitter about blown opportunities, because I know they don['t come around often...I'm a baseball guy...a student of the game, an ex-player, an ex- coach, manager and a fan. I don't despise Dusty on a whim, it's his whole philosophy, total lack of personal accountability, and inability to push players to perform fundamentally sound execution, that I dislike.

He's won more games than most, lost more than most, but IMO, had way too many opportunities than his consistent under performance with his better teams deserves. He's been good at taking on teams not used to winning, when it's all upside...MOY usually aren't repeat Series winners.... but when he's expected to win, it's always another excuse....This year will be a good test of my belief that he's not good for a good team. I'd say most would agree the Nats underperformed last year- We'll see how they do with Dustaroo..I'm not trying to sell anyone- I couldn't care less- it's more vent for me than anything. I'm thrilled he's with the Nats though- so should Mets fans. I only wish he had the Yankees or Cardinals.

Where is the half truth in Bruce and Hamilton's BA, or Hamilton and Phillips BB ? Phillips hits into more DP's than he hits HR's- consistently. Cold facts, meant to ask some perception questions to legit comparisons.


Back to the subject-

I don't see free agency effecting the Reds much. They can't afford a contract of anyone you've heard of, unless they dump equal or more salary in the deal.

 

[JohnU]

So ... I stick with my wish list of guys who can be signed but won't be super cheap or super expensive.

Dexter Fowler is a CF. That makes Hamilton have to earn it.
Fowler could also play LF, but so can Mesoraco -- maybe, if he'd been given a chance to prove it.

Matt Wieters is a catcher who can work with young pitchers. So can Barnhart.
You can trade Barnhart if you have Wieters.

Does this fix the wagon?
I don't see anybody from the farm system who's any better.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Both Wieters and Fowler received the $15.8M qualifying offer. That doesn't mean either will get a mega deal with a annual salary of that amount, but a team in the rebuild mode probably wouldn't be interested based on price tag and the loss of a draft pick that comes with signing them.

A record 20 players received the offer which has reached $15.8 M for this free agent class. There's never been a player accept the offer which seems to have emboldened teams to try and get compensation for players that wouldn't have fallen into that category a couple years ago. Someone will become the answer to a trivia question by accepting sooner or later.

Stephen Drew wishes he was that player after Scott Boras assured him he was worth more and turned down Boston's offer and went unsigned a couple years back. I can see why the Zack Grienke types turn it down, but if I was some of these guys I'd have a hard time saying no. I'd sign before the ink was dry. A guaranteed $15.8M and they'll still be a free agent next year.

 

[JohnU]

Yeah, I see where both were offered the QO.
I suppose we might disagree slightly on whether the Reds are in "rebuild mode." I don't see much that suggests it other than the pitching rotation, which is going to include Bailey anyhow by June. It's mostly just a cheap pitching staff otherwise. Finnegan and Lorenzen to the bullpen and part of that problem is addressed.
**By that** it means, "addressed" according to the front office's definition.
Honestly, assuming any or all of these guys can get the side out, the difference between contending and sucking is another decent bat. I suppose Suarez is going to get a look in LF and that Mesoraco can actually hit. Either way, I think Fowler or a like product is maybe enough. I am asserting here that Hamilton needs to be replaced in the batting order. Sorry but 60 stolen bases ain't getting my undies wet.
Wieters just frees up a potential trade.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

IMO, they should be in rebuild mode from a player acquisition, scouting, development, and offensive philosophy, but I think you're spot on when you say the Reds haven't done anything to this point that indicates that is the case. Beyond increasing their organizational depth in pitching, they haven't done anything else.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I have to believe Jay Bruce and Aroldis Chapman are the most likely of the bigger contract guys to be traded. For whatever reason, I don't think they've had acceptable offers for Phillips, Votto is just too much salary, and Bailey's damaged. Mesoraco and Frazier are still values. Without really cutting payroll, this team is limited to minimum salary farmhands and MLB discounts like Boesch, Gregg, and Marquis.

This team can improve marginally just getting healthy- Mesoraco can be a good middle of the order hitter, and Suarez may hit more than the recent LF's...and they may split sone time there for a better collective year than we've had, as example. The real questions are can the other expected regulars hit enough to make a difference ? I'm not so sure Cozart's mini streak is an indicator, and Bruce has developed into a perpetual dissapointment. Hamilton appears as clueless as the dugout is in changing him. IMO, if those 3 guys stay, and don't make a real improvement at the plate, this team is stuck in the cellar until they have replacements that can.

 

[JohnU]

Cincy has some mixed parts which makes a trend in offense likely to be the product of luck not skill.
They are too uneven in baserunning. Frazier and Bruce are capable of stealing bases and sometimes do, but they run on odd counts. The result is that there isn't enough real speed to call it a useful component.
They hit a lot of home runs at GABP and develop an uppercut swing that can reach the 5th row. When they go on the road, those are fly balls to the track.
The defense is good but when the other team has first and third, defense is a matter of trying for a DP and hoping it's a line drive.
The offense has a couple of guys who can reach, nobody to drive them around ... and the guys who are on base who ought to be stealing are stuck there because there are 2 outs and an 0-2 count on the hitter who has fanned 3 times already.
It doesn't take a genius to see how this can be fixed but there's no way it will be because, not unlike the Edsel your grandpa bought, you can't trade it in for value because it's just a bad car.
So we settle for having a 3B who wins the Home Run Derby and a 1B who leads the league in walks.
And a guy who could steal gold from Ft. Knox who can't buy a ticket to first base.
The pitching is interesting ... a lot of cheap arms who we are told are "prospects." Hint: KC did not need Cueto that bad.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Unusual tools...are by definition, rare. IMO, when you have a few of those, you really need to use them to unusual advantage.

Joey Votto has unusual plate vision- and OBP skills...but, the Reds usually hit guys behind him that make the opposition breathe a sigh of relief. Hamilton can't be thrown out stealing, and is a tough out on a bad bunt back to the pitcher...and the Reds allow him to hit everything in the air. Chapman has the most dominant set of lefty pitching tools in a generation, and the Reds keep him in the bullpen. In these instances, I can't suggest they are getting close to what they could in terms of utilization. IMO, the Reds often handicap unusual tools, by complacency with mediocrity in general, by sticking too long with failed plans, failed players, and failed staff.

They appear to be satisfied with getting Mesoraco half a season of at bats as a legit middle of the order hitter, because he's a catcher. They've excused that because Meso hasn't played the OF (why not in winter ?), and they have typically have a disappointing higher dollar past prime player in LF. Unless they sign another one, or bring a farmhand up to play the position, or move a shortstop there full time, they have an opportunity to get more O from Meso, as at least a part time LF...Chapman is in the last year of contract, and a 90 loss team doesn't usually prioritize a closer, or choose to start 5 rookies...Jay Bruce has developed into a better fielding Adam Dunn, without Dunn's walks or homers...his salary isn't too high to trade yet...but will they ? Past history makes me doubt deviation from the status quo. The Reds haven't produced an OF that could hit better than .260 in consecutive full MLB seasons in about 3 decades...so whatever they're doing with OF hitters in the minors, isn't working too well, but they're really consistent at it.

Does Dick Williams hiring as GM signal a change in philosophy ? IMO, not as long as Walt Jocketty is his supervisor. It's probably a move to say they made one, give Jocketty a suggestion his time is limited, and after 10 years in the Reds organization, a signal to the long time Reds owning Williams family, that Dick Junior is on the radar. I'm in favor of anything that makes the Reds better, at tleast the Willaims owned the Reds in the 60's and 70's, so they got to witness what preparation for greatness entailed...albeit in the days of the pre-Free Agency payroll fiasco that permeates evry GM decision these days.

There appears to be a fine line between patience and procrastination. business and baseball. KC is a point of small market optimism, but should we be complacent waiting 30 years for it ?

 

[JohnU]

Newest spin from McAlister at WLW has the Reds chatting with the Snakes -- Phillips for Aaron Hill. On paper it looks like a real bad trade. At least it lets Ivan DeJesus really play 2B cheap.

 

[JohnU]

As well, I think it's a foregone conclusion that Chappy will be dealt this winter since any team who gets him will want him for the whole year. He may bring us a bat.