Chicago Cubs Offseason

[Johnny Sleeper]

Here is an article on Ausmus and the manager job. Matheny hire shows why Cubs have Ausmus on radar | CSN Chicago

 

[ChicagoIrish]

You would have to think that if we make multiple trades, which involve Wood and Samardzija leaving, that we're seriously looking to sign Tanaka, and also pursuing David Price or some other front line pitcher.

In my opinion, I don't want Wood to be traded.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Why wouldn't you want to trade Wood? He is a #3 with no upside. If someone offers a strong package for him you jump on it. I'd be more hesitant to trade Samardzija who at least has a chance to catch up his pitching IQ to his stuff and be a borderline #1 starter.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Why wouldn't you want to trade Wood? He is a #3 with no upside. If someone offers a strong package for him you jump on it. I'd be more hesitant to trade Samardzija who at least has a chance to catch up his pitching IQ to his stuff and be a borderline #1 starter.

No way does Samardzija ever become a #1. He's far too inconsistent. He's also going to cost us a lot of money which won't even be worth it. I just don't trust Samardzija.

Travis Wood on the other hand, is what? 26 or 27, just about to hit his prime years and he's a solid #3 or #4 pitcher in any good rotation. We're trying to build a team, and eventually we will need a pitcher to fill that #3 spot in the rotation. So why not Wood? Unless we get pieces that are going to be flipped, there's no reason to trade Wood.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

We have a ton of guys in the farm that project as 3/4/5 types. Hendricks, Ramirez, Johnson, Blackburn, etc. The trade value for a #3 with two years of team control is much greater then what a #3 can give a bad team over those two years. Here is a good article on the value of pitching, specifically Shark and #3s, on the market right now. Samardzija situation still in limbo, could he be traded this offseason? What would he be worth? | Cubs Den

With the lack of money that will be spent on the offense with Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, Castro, Lake, etc all being on cheap deals there will be plenty of money to spend on the pitching. Bring in Price ($25M), then even if you miss on Tanaka you can sign Schields ($20M) and Scherzer ($20M) to go with EJax ($11M) and Arrietta/Hendricks/Ramirez/Edwards/etc ($1M). While that could be a $75-80M rotation they will be spending under $30M on the offense. That keeps the payroll around $110M before you factor in the bullpen which is where the arms coming up that don't make the rotation will be and even if they sign one established reliever that is still a bullpen under $15M. Their TV revenue will increase by over $50M/yr next season so that payroll will be very realistic and it has room for growth as the players develop and go through arbitration and some of the high dollar pitchers will drop off as the offensive players reach their big pay days. That is a great rotation. Keeping Wood, at this point, is going to prevent them from being able to make the bigger moves going forward. Wood is a decent #3, but unless you are going to have him as your #4 with EJax as your #5 and Arrieta and the prospects that are near ready that will be just as good in the bullpen then it is time to move Wood the return you can get for him. Sacrifice the 1-2 wins it will cost you in 2014 for the 2-4 wins it can gain you in 2015 and beyond.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Trading for David Price, then signing James Shields and Max Scherzer? I don't see this happening.

And what's the point in trading Travis Wood, and then signing James Shield? Is Travis Wood going to bring us the prospects to get Price? If not I just don't see the logic in trading him.

Travis Wood- 26 years old; 9-12, 3.11 ERA, 144 SO, 1.15 WHIP

James Shields- 31 years old; 13-9, 3.15 ERA, 196 SO, 1.24 WHIP

Comparing the age, and the season stats, nothing there shows me why I'd rather have Shields. It's pointless to trade away a 26 year old pitcher, who is very solid, and when we're contending for a playoff, he'll be in his prime.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Scherzer isn't a free agent until after the 2014 season.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

We must have different ideas about how much value a guy like Wood adds to your team. As for Scherzer, unless the new CBA gave the Tigers an extra year of control he should be an FA after next year. 2015 MLB Free Agents: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

[anotheridiot]

The only reason to trade Wood is that his value may never be higher. He was by far our best pitcher last year, but working out deals with these pitchers when they threw 54 million away with Jackson is gonna up their price to both him and shark being grossly over paid.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Not to mention the Lincecum deal has just seriously shot up the perceived value of #3/4 pitchers everywhere. Yes, Lincecum is a #3/4 at this point. The whole concept of money ball was to exploit the way the market changes. At times OBP is undervalued and other times fielding is undervalued. Right now #3/4 starters are highly overvalued so if you have some and are not a contender you should trade them for ace potential prospects, which is the going rate. The worst you've gone is given yourself a much cheaper #3 for 2015 and beyond.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

I do agree with both of you that Jackson and Lincecum will drive up the price.

Although, I wouldn't mind giving a little extra to Wood, but I wouldn't even think about signing Samardzija.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Brad Ausmus is being reported as being in Chicago. The Cubs are expected to ask for permission to talk to Lovullo on Saturday morning, although I could see it ending up being the afternoon since their parade starts at 10am Saturday morning.

Irish, I'd love to know what gives you the impression that Scherzer won't be an FA after next season. I've looked at several different FA lists for next off-season and all of them have Kershaw, Shields and Scherzer as the top pitchers. I don't expect Kershaw to actually hit FA, but the Royals won't afford Shields and re-signing Scherzer makes little sense for the Tigers who will have Verlander and Sanchez still under contract with Porcello and Fister under team control and if Scherzer has another season close to this one he will be getting $15-20M/yr and needing to replace some key offensive pieces.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Some Castro to the Cardinals rumors sprouting up. Reportedly the Cubs told the Cardinals a package would have to include Shelby Miller, Tyrell Jenkins or Carlos Martinez. To me you have to get two of those three and more if you are going to send Castro to the Cardinals. I can understand the value in trading Castro and there are several teams I could see moving him to, but I really don't want to see him traded to the Cardinals even if we do get a very good package from them.

I'd much rather see him traded to Royals or Giants. Both of them have pitching prospects that I wouldn't mind getting back for Castro. I'd even go so far as to give the Royals Samardzija and Castro for Zimmer, Ventura, Almonte and Mondesi. That would be a very nice package and the Cubs would suddenly have some front line starter prospects. There are other teams that can offer packages I would take for Castro, but the Giants and Royals are two that have been in rumors that I know can offer quality packages.

 

[anotheridiot]

Theo does not seem to get the rivalry with cubs and cardinals. He needs to get a room down in southern IL for a week to realize the hate.

As far as what the cardinals can give us in pitching, their guys seem to have pitcher development figured out. The roster is stacked with arms now so who knows when any of their lower prospects will ever get a shot.

I know the idea is theojed build the team and make the manager manage to its players, but I sure would like to have a manager in place before they move castro. Maybe the thought process is the closer Baez gets to wrigley the lower castros value will be. I think we have too many holes to fill to worry about that. I dont like the idea of signing ellsbury then move prospects wherever there is room when they get here next year or two, but moving castro before getting *the new managers* thought process of how to get thru to him and fix his troubles would just be giving up too soon.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I can't imagine they will sign Ellsbury. They have stressed the value of draft picks and signing Ellsbury will cost them a pick. Look at last off-season. They guys they went after were EJax and Sanchez. Neither were going to cost a pick. Baez's proximity to the majors does not effect Castro's trade value. Baez can move to 2B, 3B, etc. If they are going to trade Castro it is because they think they can get better production by adding prospects and going with their homegrown infield.

If Theo/Hoyer feel that 2B/3B/SS is strong with some combination of Alcantara/Amaya at 2B, Baez at SS and Olt/Bryant at 3B then with Castro at SS then they will move Castro. The trickle down effect of that is that it means Bryant can't drop down to LF so I think they have to be looking at either Alcantara or Amaya as the long-term 2B with Baez as the long-term SS and Olt at 3B. Bryant drops to LF with Almora in CF and Soler in RF with everyone up around mid-2016; Almora would be the last one up of that group.

I don't expect any moves to be made until the Winter Meetings. The manager will be hired before then. I will be surprised if they do not announce the new manager on the 5th or 6th. They are really just waiting to interview Lovullo, probably on the 4th, then maybe do a second interview with one or two people if the Lovullo blows it, which would probably be the 5th. Then make a final decision and announcement on the 6th. If Lovullo nails his interview, as I expect, they could announce him on the 5th. The Winter Meetings do not start until the 11th so even if the process goes on 2-3 days longer then I expect they still have plenty of time.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Brad Ausmus is being reported as being in Chicago. The Cubs are expected to ask for permission to talk to Lovullo on Saturday morning, although I could see it ending up being the afternoon since their parade starts at 10am Saturday morning.

Irish, I'd love to know what gives you the impression that Scherzer won't be an FA after next season. I've looked at several different FA lists for next off-season and all of them have Kershaw, Shields and Scherzer as the top pitchers. I don't expect Kershaw to actually hit FA, but the Royals won't afford Shields and re-signing Scherzer makes little sense for the Tigers who will have Verlander and Sanchez still under contract with Porcello and Fister under team control and if Scherzer has another season close to this one he will be getting $15-20M/yr and needing to replace some key offensive pieces.

That's what I said, I said Scherzer isn't a free agent until after this next season.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Scherzer isn't a free agent until after the 2014 season.

^

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Brad Ausmus to the Tigers

Y! SPORTS

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

After seeing Bryant in the AFL all-star game I know understand why there were questions about him sticking at 3B going into the draft. He missed a ball right between his legs and then had a throwing error that wouldn't have been caught by any 1B out there. I always thought Bryant was the future at LF and now I'm even more sure then before. If Olt doesn't stick at 3B then Baez will be there. Alcantara will get first crack at 2B and if he struggles then Amaya will get a shot. Amaya will be starting this year in AA so it's not like there will be a gap between deciding about Alcantara then waiting for Amaya to be ready.

Bryant, Almora and Soler all looked good at the plate. Soler looked good in RF. It'll be interesting to see how things progress next year for the call-ups and what pieces get added, if any, in the off-season. I'm now even more against the idea of trading for CarGo then before. Just plug in some combination of Lake, Schierholtz, Vitters, Sweeny, etc until Bryant takes over in LF and Soler in RF which should be by mid-2015. If the Cubs didn't have a long list of guys for 3B I could see suffering with Bryant's defense there, but when you have Olt, Villanueva, Baez, Candelario, etc. there is no reason not to move Bryant to a position where his bat and glove should both be plus.

With Ausmus off the table I guess that changes my second choice for manager from Ausmus to Martinez. I prefer Lovullo. Hopefully, they get the Lovullo interview done and a decision announced by the middle of the week. Once that is over they can start focusing fully on the roster trades. Really looking forward to the Winter Meetings.

 

[anotheridiot]

Twitter seems to be going with Renteria, which might actually push it to Martinez. Seems theo makes sure he watches twitter and does not do what one twit says he should do. Its been a month, really see this as dragging his feet more than being thorough. How long do you expect these guys to wait and what confidence does it show in your choice if you have been trying to find a reason not to hire him? I think Theo goes boston and was his plan all along. Just waiting for him to try to change the pinstripes to red.