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Higgins offseason thread

futballiscool

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He's a low end #1...top tier #2. It's pretty much what I've said all along.

I think you can get by for some games with him, but I don't think he's a 17 game a season #1 like Chase, Brown, Jefferson.

Again - I'm not trying to pish-posh Higgins - who I think is a very good WR....but I do think "our" fans have overvalued him simply because of how good this offense is with Burrow, and of course Chase on the other side.


To me those players are generational, HOF caliber talents. I wouldn't put Higgins in that class but I do think he's a number 1 WR. I'd rank him top 10-15 in the league and he's yet to truly hit his prime
 

DanBengalfan

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To me those players are generational, HOF caliber talents. I wouldn't put Higgins in that class but I do think he's a number 1 WR. I'd rank him top 10-15 in the league and he's yet to truly hit his prime
one year, in the not too far distant past, tyler boyd was our #1 receiver. he did really well, although the team as a whole did not.
 

Cincyfan78

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To me those players are generational, HOF caliber talents. I wouldn't put Higgins in that class but I do think he's a number 1 WR. I'd rank him top 10-15 in the league and he's yet to truly hit his prime
Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Chase, Diggs, Brown, Kupp (though injury does put him in some question), Lamb, Debo, St. Brown, McLaurin, Evans, Waddle, Allen, Cooper, Metcalf...

Those are just a few of the WR's who would be ranked ahead of Higgins.

In no world to date is Higgins a top 10 WR in the NFL. No way. No how. Just stop.

I'd put him in the 20-25 range, and that would be a low end #1...upper end #2. He's been good. He's not a true #1.
 

CrashDavisSports

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Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Chase, Diggs, Brown, Kupp (though injury does put him in some question), Lamb, Debo, St. Brown, McLaurin, Evans, Waddle, Allen, Cooper, Metcalf...

Those are just a few of the WR's who would be ranked ahead of Higgins.

In no world to date is Higgins a top 10 WR in the NFL. No way. No how. Just stop.

I'd put him in the 20-25 range, and that would be a low end #1...upper end #2. He's been good. He's not a true #1.
I would not rank Cooper or Metcalf ahead of Higgins, and I would put up a argument for Kupp, Allen, possibly McLaurin..some old ass players in there too with Evans, Adams and Diggs who I would make an argument of having Higgins over them at this stage in their careers.
 

Cincyfan78

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I would not rank Cooper or Metcalf ahead of Higgins, and I would put up a argument for Kupp, Allen, possibly McLaurin..some old ass players in there too with Evans, Adams and Diggs who I would make an argument of having Higgins over them at this stage in their careers.
Sure, but Higgins also struggled mightily last year as well...

Look, again - I'm not trying to dismiss Higgins as a good WR. I'm just not going to sit here and say he's a top 10 WR. If you polled all the NFL teams about the top 10 WR's...not a single one of them would put Higgins top 10. You might get 1 or 2 to put him top 15. I'd wager that the vast majority would have him somewhere 20-25.

Low end #1. High end #2. There's nothing wrong with this. If I were advising Higgins - I'd tell him to go out there and be the best damned #2 WR in the NFL - and make a SHIT ton of money doing it. Don't fall down the trap of thinking you are a true #1, and end up flaming out in 2-3 years when you don't live up to that hype. This history of #2 WR's doing this is littered with guys...
 

Cincyfan78

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And if the Bengals truly ever viewed Higgins as a legit #1 - I don't think they draft Chase...FWIW...I think they go in a totally different direction. Maybe Burrow still gets his way and they get Chase...but it was clear from the get go, they felt Chase was the #1, even though Higgins was doing well and had a year start on him.
 

cincygrad

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I would not rank Cooper or Metcalf ahead of Higgins, and I would put up a argument for Kupp, Allen, possibly McLaurin..some old ass players in there too with Evans, Adams and Diggs who I would make an argument of having Higgins over them at this stage in their careers.
If you're going to penalize some guys for age (which I do not disagree with), you should also penalize others for durability. And Higgins has been injured a lot. The games played stat doesn't do much here as there have been at least 4 games I can count that he started but didn't finish a game. He's had hamstring problems, multiple concussions, shoulder issues, and broken ribs. Maybe this is just fluky stuff, but it sure seems like a trend.
 

DanBengalfan

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And if the Bengals truly ever viewed Higgins as a legit #1 - I don't think they draft Chase...FWIW...I think they go in a totally different direction. Maybe Burrow still gets his way and they get Chase...but it was clear from the get go, they felt Chase was the #1, even though Higgins was doing well and had a year start on him.
Chase is a beast. only the Bengals could mess up his stats.
 

futballiscool

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I were advising Higgins - I'd tell him to go out there and be the best damned #2 WR in the NFL - and make a SHIT ton of money doing it. Don't fall down the trap of thinking you are a true #1, and end up flaming out in 2-3 years when you don't live up to that hype. This history of #2 WR's doing this is littered with guys...

He had over 900 yds as a 21 year old rookie and that was while catching passes from a rookie Burrow and backups after Burrow was injured. I just don't see an Alivin Harper scenario here. As long as he's healthy and gets solid QB play he's going to be an effective player.

Here's a scenario that works for everyone. Trade Higgins for picks, use those picks to trade up for Odunze, Nabers or Harrison if anyone of them falls past 7. Higgins gets paid and a chance to be a number one, Bengals get a blue chip prospect at WR on a cost controlled contract, money is freed up to extend other players on the roster. Everyone wins.
 

CrashDavisSports

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He had over 900 yds as a 21 year old rookie and that was while catching passes from a rookie Burrow and backups after Burrow was injured. I just don't see an Alivin Harper scenario here. As long as he's healthy and gets solid QB play he's going to be an effective player.

Here's a scenario that works for everyone. Trade Higgins for picks, use those picks to trade up for Odunze, Nabers or Harrison if anyone of them falls past 7. Higgins gets paid and a chance to be a number one, Bengals get a blue chip prospect at WR on a cost controlled contract, money is freed up to extend other players on the roster. Everyone wins.
Burrow was in his second year when Chase was a rookie and didn't miss a snap due to injury that year that I am aware of.

I don't mind the Courtland Sutton plus 3rd rounder for Tee idea. If we chose to wait, it would be Courtland Sutton plus a second rounder in 2025. We would have two years left on Sutton's contract, and we would save money even if we took on the entire Sutton contract it would only be $17 million against the cap. If we got Denver to pay the bonus it would only be $13 million.
 

Cincyfan78

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Tee is going nowhere.

Tee is a fine WR. Top 20 even.

Tee is NOT a top 10 WR.


All of these things are true.
 

Cincyfan78

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That means he is a #1 on 12-15 teams still.
If Higgins is 20th...he can be #1 on some teams, yes...those teams likely don't have a true #1...and that is what I've been saying ALL ALONG...he's a lower tier #1, top tier #2.

Top tier #1 guys are in that 1-12 range. Mid tier would be 13-20ish, and 20ish on down would be low-tier #1...which is where I would put Higgins.

I rattled off no less than 16 or 17 other WR's off the top that would likely be considered a #1 over Higgins the other day...

I really like Tee, he can be a #1, but he'll never be a top tier #1. He'll never be Chase, Jefferson, Brown, etc...etc...Again, there is nothing wrong with this. The road of WR ruin is littered with #2 guys who were really freaking good. So good they thought they could be a top tier #1 - and found out in short order - they could not and short-circuited their careers.
 

Cincyfan78

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At any rate - I'll move on...

I fully believe Higgins will be on this roster come camp - and I fully believe the Bengals know that their best offense this year is with Higgins.

Next year, they'll do what they've always done - allow him to walk. I'll wish him the best, and hope he ends up in a great situation and goes out there and balls out.
 

cincygrad

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This article has good perspective on receiver deals. They seem much bigger than they are.... If Hill and Adams are only truly clearing 23 million per year, the Bengals probably aren't offering anything close to that number. And the tag is actually pretty damn good value for the player. I think Higgins agent is probably okay with (even if he won't say it) Higgins playing on the tag given the compensation.

 

Cincyfan78

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This article has good perspective on receiver deals. They seem much bigger than they are.... If Hill and Adams are only truly clearing 23 million per year, the Bengals probably aren't offering anything close to that number. And the tag is actually pretty damn good value for the player. I think Higgins agent is probably okay with (even if he won't say it) Higgins playing on the tag given the compensation.

I keep pointing out that the mega deals are not worth the paper the contract is printed on, and that goes for the majority of players/positions. You're not seeing the end years where the big money comes. Either they are cut or restructured, etc...but the smaller deals where you are A more likely to see the entire contract, and B - actualize that contract and it's monetary terms/conditions. So, a smaller deal with a year, or two, less may seem like a terrible deal - but in the end - the player actually ends up making more money - and these shorter deals also allow them to get back on the market sooner to get another contract. Guys like Chase, Jefferson, Higgins - IMO - they should be looking to make a solid team friendly deal where they will see nearly 100% of the contract, and give them, and the team, some freedom in another 3 years to hit the market.
 

cincygrad

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I keep pointing out that the mega deals are not worth the paper the contract is printed on, and that goes for the majority of players/positions. You're not seeing the end years where the big money comes. Either they are cut or restructured, etc...but the smaller deals where you are A more likely to see the entire contract, and B - actualize that contract and it's monetary terms/conditions. So, a smaller deal with a year, or two, less may seem like a terrible deal - but in the end - the player actually ends up making more money - and these shorter deals also allow them to get back on the market sooner to get another contract. Guys like Chase, Jefferson, Higgins - IMO - they should be looking to make a solid team friendly deal where they will see nearly 100% of the contract, and give them, and the team, some freedom in another 3 years to hit the market.
There has been a strange dialogue about how the Benals are mistreating Higgins by not coming to terms on a long term deal to get him off the tag. Some of this has been fueled by players at other positions signing deals after the tag. But, given the true value of these receiver deals AND the fact that Higgins will now make more than the other talented players playing on the 5th year option (Jefferson, Lamb, Ayeuk) and Higgins is actually doing quite well for a player at his position. I think this is why you see him showing know concerns about playing for the Bengals on the tag this year (most recent interview).

It's funny because the reality is that Higgins is in a better situation this season than the guys on their 5th year options.... I wonder if this will influence how aggressive Chase's representation will be next offseason.
 

Cincyfan78

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There has been a strange dialogue about how the Benals are mistreating Higgins by not coming to terms on a long term deal to get him off the tag. Some of this has been fueled by players at other positions signing deals after the tag. But, given the true value of these receiver deals AND the fact that Higgins will now make more than the other talented players playing on the 5th year option (Jefferson, Lamb, Ayeuk) and Higgins is actually doing quite well for a player at his position. I think this is why you see him showing know concerns about playing for the Bengals on the tag this year (most recent interview).

It's funny because the reality is that Higgins is in a better situation this season than the guys on their 5th year options.... I wonder if this will influence how aggressive Chase's representation will be next offseason.
Right - the concern is the injury and then not having the 'long term' contract, but again - with so much of it on the back end being "fluff" money - any true injury is going to nullify that mega deal. Might get a few more million up front, but not likely a ton more. And really, outside of losing a limb - most injuries are not going to prevent guys from getting paid if they are good enough.

I've pointed out Chase's situation a few times.

His 5th year option is $21M. Likely tag will be around $24ish (give or take). All guaranteed. So, guaranteed cash is going to be roughly $45M. Now, the AAV of the top 5 WR's is north of $24M - which is just above what Chase would get. So, sticking through the next 2 years, even though it's guaranteed, wouldn't put him near the top of the WR board in terms of cash.

He's 24 now (and for this season). He'll be 25 in his 5th year option. He'll be 26 when he's "tagged". He'll be a F/A at 27. A 4-5 year deal there would take him into his 30's, and likely limit the amount of his next/2nd full contract.

I'd likely advise him to buy out his 5th year. Get a small raise from $21M to maybe $25M. Get that second year to maybe $27, 3rd year at $30 and a 4th year at $35. You guarantee the 1st 3 years of the deal - giving him $82M in total guarantees (which would be #1 as Cupp has $75M). Chase gets paid as one of, if not the top, of the WR market - but his increases are nominal - his guarantees put him at #1 in total cash compensation - and you can absorb as much of that up front as you want, lessening the back end burden.

For Chase - it sets him back on the market in 4 years, at 28/29 - and still outside of that age 30 window - so he should be able to cash in 1 more solid contract to get more long-term money.

If he waits - yes, he can get more money now - but it likely comes at a cost in his next contract where he won't, likely, earn as much.
 
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