Higgins offseason thread

[cincygrad]

It seems like all the discussion about the Bengals offseason has to do with the Tee Higgins decision. So, let's discuss.

The chatter as of today is that the Bengals will tag Higgins. This is not shocking news. Lots of fans hope we tag and trade for some picks while some folks are holding out hope that he signs a long term deal. I'd put the percentages as follows..... 85% he plays this season on the tag. 10% tag and trade. 4% long term deal. 1% let him walk.

So, if you're going with the tag for this season, you're basically saying that he is playing somewhere else in 2025. That could mean a compensatory pick in the 27 draft and maybe one as high as a third rounder. But that only works if you don't sign any big name free agents in FA of 26. For example, we're getting nothing for Jesse Bates because of the Orlando Brown Jr. signing last year. To me, this means that if it is your strategy to tag Higgins for one season and you don't anticipate trading him, you better go all in on your external free agents this year. Then, in FA 25 you use all available money for the Chase deal and other internal free agents.

What say you?

 

[Cincyfan78]

It seems like all the discussion about the Bengals offseason has to do with the Tee Higgins decision. So, let's discuss.

The chatter as of today is that the Bengals will tag Higgins. This is not shocking news. Lots of fans hope we tag and trade for some picks while some folks are holding out hope that he signs a long term deal. I'd put the percentages as follows..... 85% he plays this season on the tag. 10% tag and trade. 4% long term deal. 1% let him walk.

So, if you're going with the tag for this season, you're basically saying that he is playing somewhere else in 2025. That could mean a compensatory pick in the 27 draft and maybe one as high as a third rounder. But that only works if you don't sign any big name free agents in FA of 26. For example, we're getting nothing for Jesse Bates because of the Orlando Brown Jr. signing last year. To me, this means that if it is your strategy to tag Higgins for one season and you don't anticipate trading him, you better go all in on your external free agents this year. Then, in FA 25 you use all available money for the Chase deal and other internal free agents.

What say you?

I'm in alignment with your percentages.

I'd tag - and see if there is a deal to be had - but I'm not breaking the bank for him. I think Tee is a very good WR. He could even be someone's #1 - but I don't think he's a top tier #1 - Chase is. That is your primary focus at WR - and we know you can't pay a QB a WR AND another WR unless you make some major concessions somewhere else.

I'm OK with Tagging him and letting him walk next year. That buys you 1 more year of getting other positions in the fold, under contract and drafted to know where you stand going into the 20205 off-season for WR.

For some perspective about 2025 - these are the current listed F/A that are the "name" guys (there are more, but are clear backups, cut material, etc...):

Hendrickson
Hill
Chase
Hilton
Karras
Mixon
Ossai
McPherson

I don't think Mixon makes it to the start of the 2024 season with the Bengals, but if he does and makes it through - He's done as a Bengal. Could the Bengals extend Hendrickson 1 more time if he continues to play at a top level?

Clearly they will extend McPherson - that could be one they get done early (this year) with all the extra cap room.

Chase will be the focus, no doubt. Again, another target to sign early as he's eligible this year, and Bengals have a lot of cap room to absorb some early money.

Hilton - Thank you for your services. I don't see any kind of extension - unless they decided to extend him now for 1 more year.

Karras would be very interesting...Linemen age differently than skill players - but I think we can all agree the OL still needs upgrading in general.

Ossai, Hill - Without some real jump in play - they will both be replaced.

This is to say - outside of Chase - 2025 is a year where they have nearly no one to really target - meaning even if they get Chase done - they could still have a really good base for a few F/A's. Too early to really know the impact on the 2025 cap yet until we know the numbers - but Bengals should be in good position.

 

[DanBengalfan]

not sure Chase finishes his career here either.

he will demand a ridiculous paycheck.

 

[Cincyfan78]

not sure Chase finishes his career here either.

he will demand a ridiculous paycheck.

Yeah, he'll get payday #1 from the Bengals.

But, he turns 24 March 1st. If the Bengals offer him a 4 year deal this year, in place of the option that will no doubt be picked up for 2025 (the average of last years' WR deals) He'll be 28 going into that season final season, and 29 going into Free Agency. If the Bengals wait a year, he'll be 29 in that last year, and 30 into his free agency. If the Bengals tag him the following year, he'll be 30 that following year, and 31 going into free agency.

If I were Chase - I'd sign a bit more friendly deal now, starting in place of that option year, knowing that if it can be a 3 or 4 year "extension" deal - I can get back on the market maybe around 27/28 instead of 29/30. Fighting for more dollars now could very well cost him more dollars down the road. Get paid, don't get me wrong, but don't lose sight of the bigger picture, which is getting back to free agency at an age that allows him to cash in a 2nd time.

 

[cincygrad]

I think Chase will want to be paid the highest receiver contract, and I think the Bengals are prepared to pay him that way..... For a month or so. So many guys will come up at once and they will all one-up each other but ultimately end up in the same type of range. It seems that Chase is the next big target after Burrow and I agree with the thinking.

To me, Tee is gone after this season. The only real question is whether we invest heavily in FA the year he leaves and get nothing in return, or if we protect the comp pick. Protecting the comp pick is the old Bengals way..... Investing in FA is the new Bengals way (see last offseason).

I know many of our fans want a tag and trade of Tee..... But, I do think you have to think about these things in the context of championship windows. Bills are going to be due soon on some guys and turnover is going to continue to happen. The AFC shouldn't have a dominant team next year - The Ravens were the best overall this year and they'll rebuild a bit. I think you owe it to yourself to invest in FA this year, tag Tee, and go for a championship next year.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I think Chase will want to be paid the highest receiver contract, and I think the Bengals are prepared to pay him that way..... For a month or so. So many guys will come up at once and they will all one-up each other but ultimately end up in the same type of range. It seems that Chase is the next big target after Burrow and I agree with the thinking.

To me, Tee is gone after this season. The only real question is whether we invest heavily in FA the year he leaves and get nothing in return, or if we protect the comp pick. Protecting the comp pick is the old Bengals way..... Investing in FA is the new Bengals way (see last offseason).

I know many of our fans want a tag and trade of Tee..... But, I do think you have to think about these things in the context of championship windows. Bills are going to be due soon on some guys and turnover is going to continue to happen. The AFC shouldn't have a dominant team next year - The Ravens were the best overall this year and they'll rebuild a bit. I think you owe it to yourself to invest in FA this year, tag Tee, and go for a championship next year.

I think you can tag and trade now...having Tee is great - but KC just won the superbowl with WR's pulled form the stands, and Kelce not really doing Kelce things.

So, depending on what you get in the tag in trade, not only do you get to load up at OT, but then turn around and find a suitable replacement in the draft, potentially, at WR.

That being said - I'd rather tag, keep him - but I do understand the thinking - and while having 2 really freaking good WR's is a nice luxury - we need to remember it's just that - a luxury. The vast majority of teams are getting by just fine with a true #1, and guys who are good 2/3 options. As long as Burrow is at QB, and the line gives him time - he'll make it work.

 

[Cincyfan78]

And I will add - I think this offense opens up when the running game takes a big step forward. If that is with Brown, then Brown, but it is clearly, IMO, not with Mixon.

When teams have to start respecting the run - that opens up everything else for the WR's, no matter who they are. Not to mention, helps the OL protect the QB better, and buy the QB/WR more time.

 

[Cincyfan78]

One additional thought - don't rule out Tagging/Keeping Higgins, but still drafting a WR this year.

Bengals did the same thing with Bates/Hill. That could be the blue-print for how this plays out.

 

[cincygrad]

One additional thought - don't rule out Tagging/Keeping Higgins, but still drafting a WR this year.

Bengals did the same thing with Bates/Hill. That could be the blue-print for how this plays out.

Yes, I definitely could see that as a strategy. It will be really telling if we take Coleman from FSU or that tall, athletic kid from South Carolina (more of a second rounder I believe).

 

[cincygrad]

I think you can tag and trade now...having Tee is great - but KC just won the superbowl with WR's pulled form the stands, and Kelce not really doing Kelce things.

So, depending on what you get in the tag in trade, not only do you get to load up at OT, but then turn around and find a suitable replacement in the draft, potentially, at WR.

That being said - I'd rather tag, keep him - but I do understand the thinking - and while having 2 really freaking good WR's is a nice luxury - we need to remember it's just that - a luxury. The vast majority of teams are getting by just fine with a true #1, and guys who are good 2/3 options. As long as Burrow is at QB, and the line gives him time - he'll make it work.

One thing that stood out to me in the last two super bowls was the importance of the pass rush. Many folks talked about Philly's inability to get their pass rush going on the sloppy field two years ago and then this year you saw big plays change due to pressure on both QBs. Chase Young had a big game. Bosa was a monster. Obviously Chris Jones and all of the Spag blitzes. I think when good teams play each other, you see them neutralize a lot of the base attack and it's up the QB to make plays from the pocket. I also think in the SB, the pass rushers have had 2 weeks to get healthy, they are playing somewhere warm or climate controlled, and they don't take plays off.

This is a long way of saying that I don't think receivers matter in the Super Bowl as much as they do in the regular season. It's more about pass rushers and blockers. Same reason why we lost 3 years ago.

 

[Cincyfan78]

One thing that stood out to me in the last two super bowls was the importance of the pass rush. Many folks talked about Philly's inability to get their pass rush going on the sloppy field two years ago and then this year you saw big plays change due to pressure on both QBs. Chase Young had a big game. Bosa was a monster. Obviously Chris Jones and all of the Spag blitzes. I think when good teams play each other, you see them neutralize a lot of the base attack and it's up the QB to make plays from the pocket. I also think in the SB, the pass rushers have had 2 weeks to get healthy, they are playing somewhere warm or climate controlled, and they don't take plays off.

This is a long way of saying that I don't think receivers matter in the Super Bowl as much as they do in the regular season. It's more about pass rushers and blockers. Same reason why we lost 3 years ago.

What was true in the 70's and 80's is still true today, IMO...

Games are won/lost at the line of scrimmage more often, than not. Either have to run the ball, stop the run - or - protect the QB, get after the QB.

No dog in the fight for the SB - but how officials continue to allow OT's (KC's is one of the worst) to line up in the backfield is beyond me. I thought that was a big key in the game against SF's pass-rush, especially on the RT's side of things. Bosa was getting held like crazy (and yes, you can call that on a lot of plays) but the fact that the OT was lined up so deep that on more than one occasion Kelce could have tripped over him coming in motion was crazy to me.

That's something, IMO, that needs to be cleaned up across the NFL, though - not just KC/Super Bowl specific

 

[jbuck]

the 'great' QB with 'soso' receivers method has thrived over the last 20 years or so. Good line, good defense, great QB seems to me to be the way to succeed. You would keep chase, of course. But let Tee go and bring in stud pass rushers. Keep reader too. The offense is set in my mind other than the line.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

the 'great' QB with 'soso' receivers method has thrived over the last 20 years or so. Good line, good defense, great QB seems to me to be the way to succeed. You would keep chase, of course. But let Tee go and bring in stud pass rushers. Keep reader too. The offense is set in my mind other than the line.

I saw some crazy ass article that suggested the Bengals trade for Aaron Donald with our 1st and 3rd round picks this year. Donald next to Reader would be amazing, but we will not spend that kind of cash on a player at that position and we wouldn't spend the draft capital. We do need to resign Reader and find another stud at DT to put beside him. I know we signed Hill to a 3 year deal last year, but we could do better I think. Our secondary could still use a veteran at S to help direct traffic. Losing Bates and Bell together really hurt us, and while I like the young potential of our secondary, I think we need a vet leader on the field at all times directing traffic like they did.

DE, DT, RT, LG, S

Resign Reader and Hilton, Tag Higgins.

 

[Cincyfan78]

A lot of articles focusing on losing guys like Jonah and Boyd, etc...

I just don't see how anyone thinks the Bengals are seriously entertaining returning those guys.

Higgins is getting tagged. What happens after that is up in the air, but he's getting tagged.

Reader will get an offer. Will it be enough? I don't know, but as we've seen with this team - there are guys who take fair market value and return rather than the big payday and headoff - Burrow and the expectation of winning is a big, big part of that. So are Taylor and Lou. I think this gets done.

Of the rest of the F/A's here is who I see getting an offer to return: Hudson. Sample. Bachie, maybe...Adomitis, maybe Bailey and Tupou - those are all guys in backup roles, really...Cody Ford is an interesting one too because he is a swing guy for RG/LG/RT...provides depth.

The big pressing names - only Reader and Higgins, IMO, will get targeted. Boyd - thank you for your service. Awuzie - Thank you for your service. Williams - Thank you for your service. Smith, we hardly knew ye.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

A lot of articles focusing on losing guys like Jonah and Boyd, etc...

I just don't see how anyone thinks the Bengals are seriously entertaining returning those guys.

Higgins is getting tagged. What happens after that is up in the air, but he's getting tagged.

Reader will get an offer. Will it be enough? I don't know, but as we've seen with this team - there are guys who take fair market value and return rather than the big payday and headoff - Burrow and the expectation of winning is a big, big part of that. So are Taylor and Lou. I think this gets done.

Of the rest of the F/A's here is who I see getting an offer to return: Hudson. Sample. Bachie, maybe...Adomitis, maybe Bailey and Tupou - those are all guys in backup roles, really...Cody Ford is an interesting one too because he is a swing guy for RG/LG/RT...provides depth.

The big pressing names - only Reader and Higgins, IMO, will get targeted. Boyd - thank you for your service. Awuzie - Thank you for your service. Williams - Thank you for your service. Smith, we hardly knew ye.

I would like to see us sign Xavier McKinney and Chase Young. Hendrickson is not going to be here but a couple more years and who knows if we get anything out of Myles or Ossai. Young is 24 years old and while he has not been great outside his rookie year, I think he still has a lot of potential left and learning from Hendrickson for a year or two could be what he needs to start excelling.

McKinney could be that versatile safety we need with leadership to help keep our defense relevant this upcoming year.

Both these guys are under 25, and these are the type of contracts we have liked giving out in the past that changed our defense. Young guys ready for their second contract that is up and coming. Now granted, Chase Young may have too big of a name to make this a reality. but these are the type of guys we need.

I would entertain the idea, that if we can sign these two guys now that maybe you let a guy like Tee just go find the team and payday he wants so we can use the money on something we can't put Joe Burrow in charge of, the defense. Give Joe a stout defense, a RT in the first round of the draft and a veteran replacement at WR that is on a cheaper contract, we can survive on offense. Maybe Jauan Jennings from SF, and resign Boyd to a two year contract extension at 7.5 million per.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I would like to see us sign Xavier McKinney and Chase Young. Hendrickson is not going to be here but a couple more years and who knows if we get anything out of Myles or Ossai. Young is 24 years old and while he has not been great outside his rookie year, I think he still has a lot of potential left and learning from Hendrickson for a year or two could be what he needs to start excelling.

McKinney could be that versatile safety we need with leadership to help keep our defense relevant this upcoming year.

Both these guys are under 25, and these are the type of contracts we have liked giving out in the past that changed our defense. Young guys ready for their second contract that is up and coming. Now granted, Chase Young may have too big of a name to make this a reality. but these are the type of guys we need.

I would entertain the idea, that if we can sign these two guys now that maybe you let a guy like Tee just go find the team and payday he wants so we can use the money on something we can't put Joe Burrow in charge of, the defense. Give Joe a stout defense, a RT in the first round of the draft and a veteran replacement at WR that is on a cheaper contract, we can survive on offense. Maybe Jauan Jennings from SF, and resign Boyd to a two year contract extension at 7.5 million per.

That is a hard NO on Young. Dude has under performed every year...and there are very real concerns with this work ethic and attitude. He's also known for deciding to run his "own" plays. That won't fly here. No thank you. I wouldn't sign him in hopes of replacing Hubbard (much lower sack/pressure stats) let along Hendrickson. Bengals are going to have to find another guy and strike lightening, or hope that Murphey can translate the 2nd highest pressure rate on the DL last year into sacks going forward. And/Or draft yet another DE - but likely a higher round guy...what if a Chop Robinson falls to them in round 2? Would be hard pressed to pass him up, IMO...but, anyway - this is all a really long way of saying "No way in hell would I sign Young".

McKinney is looking for a BAG - and the Bengals just drafted 2 safeties...one of whom was rated in the top 10 of all defensive rookies....Hill struggled a bit, but we have to remember that he played a lot of DB last year with Bates still here. No way the Bengals are going to pay a big price for a safety.

Tee gets tagged. I don't think that is a discussion, really. He's getting tagged. Now, if you want to discuss trading him - then that's different - but he's getting tagged.

Reader is the other big F/A on this team that is going to get an offer. He's central to what this defense does. Get him back on board, and it buys time to draft/find another NT ready to replace in him 2-3 years. Some good DT depth that could be there at rounds 2 and/or 3...if the Bengals can get Reader back on board - they will want to upgrade the 3-tech spot. Hill is a nice guy to have, but they need a 1st down/2nd down run oriented DT next to reader to rotate with Hill.

 

[Cincyfan78]

And let's also remember - without getting too crazy in F/A this year - the Bengals have a chance to either get Chase done, and eat some of that money early - or start with Burrow and getting some money paid towards this cap this year as well. Either would lessen the burden of the cap hits down the road when the Bengals start losing multiple starters in consecutive years.

I think this is a good year to focus on Reader, Tag Higgins, take care of what you can with Burrow/Chase - and look for some depth pieces and replenish in the draft.

This is also one reason I wouldn't be opposed to a sign/trade/Tag/Trade deal with Higgins - and get a few extra picks. 1st this year, maybe 3rd next year? Maybe two 2's and a 3rd? Either way, getting those extra picks would go a long, long way for this team to start easing some of that cap space and allow for Burrow and Chase to get money moved around to keep the ability to sign guys who need to be signed when they need to.

Karras and Cappa both are going to be due soon - and the Jury is still out on Volston - so...in addition to RT, you also need to keep a least a small view this year, and big view next year, with the OL. Not only does it need to get better, but it also is going to need to either be paid, or replaced sooner than we may realize.

 

[cincygrad]

And let's also remember - without getting too crazy in F/A this year - the Bengals have a chance to either get Chase done, and eat some of that money early - or start with Burrow and getting some money paid towards this cap this year as well. Either would lessen the burden of the cap hits down the road when the Bengals start losing multiple starters in consecutive years.

I think this is a good year to focus on Reader, Tag Higgins, take care of what you can with Burrow/Chase - and look for some depth pieces and replenish in the draft.

This is also one reason I wouldn't be opposed to a sign/trade/Tag/Trade deal with Higgins - and get a few extra picks. 1st this year, maybe 3rd next year? Maybe two 2's and a 3rd? Either way, getting those extra picks would go a long, long way for this team to start easing some of that cap space and allow for Burrow and Chase to get money moved around to keep the ability to sign guys who need to be signed when they need to.

Karras and Cappa both are going to be due soon - and the Jury is still out on Volston - so...in addition to RT, you also need to keep a least a small view this year, and big view next year, with the OL. Not only does it need to get better, but it also is going to need to either be paid, or replaced sooner than we may realize.

I'm with you on Young. He tries hard about 20% of the time. No thanks.

I could see Reader coming back only because the market for him could be soft due to his injury. Tee will be tagged. There will be one 'surprising' FAs like last year with Orlando Brown Jr. I have no idea where it will be.

I think you'll see some mid-level targets along the offensive line and defensive line. Maybe a veteran CB that isn't top tier. Maybe a safety.

I don't think they get close with Chase this year. Too many other receivers negotiating right now. I think they play it like they did with Burrow, letting other receivers set the market and then slotting Chase accordingly - Probably next offseason.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I'm with you on Young. He tries hard about 20% of the time. No thanks.

I could see Reader coming back only because the market for him could be soft due to his injury. Tee will be tagged. There will be one 'surprising' FAs like last year with Orlando Brown Jr. I have no idea where it will be.

I think you'll see some mid-level targets along the offensive line and defensive line. Maybe a veteran CB that isn't top tier. Maybe a safety.

I don't think they get close with Chase this year. Too many other receivers negotiating right now. I think they play it like they did with Burrow, letting other receivers set the market and then slotting Chase accordingly - Probably next offseason.

I'm in line with this. You are likely right with Chase.

Assuming that is the case - and let's assume they are OK with letting the Burrow contract ride for now...make a run at Reader.

Look at the F/A board - I think a DB is a must as Awuzie is gone. I think a backup safety is a must, as I think Scott gets cut. Do they look for a RB and let Mixon go? Cutting Mixon and Scott saves around $10M. Bengals would have somewhere around 70+M to spend. Take off $20 for Higgins' tag...and you still have $50M.

Maybe they look for a 3-Tech in F/A to pair next to reader? Maybe they look for a rotational guy at DE to pair with Hubbard/Hendrickson/Murphy...

Do they look TE? The 1 year deals are still there - I think they'd bring back Sample and Hudson - but if there is a sure-fire starter that fits the bill do they finally cross that off this season? Guys who could fit the bill, and still would have a few years before age 30 - Schultz, Gesicki, Fant...

They lose Boyd. I know they have Jones and Yoshi - but if a solid slot guy is out there...do you grab him knowing you will also be losing Tee next year...shoring up Chase, Slot, and depth before Higgins leaves would really help lessen the blow - as would maybe adding that TE I mentioned above.

In other words - if the Bengals do kick the can on Chase - they are going to have a lot of money to play with - and there could be more than 1 surprise signing as you mentioned - could be 2, or 3.

 

[cincygrad]

I'm in line with this. You are likely right with Chase.

Assuming that is the case - and let's assume they are OK with letting the Burrow contract ride for now...make a run at Reader.

Look at the F/A board - I think a DB is a must as Awuzie is gone. I think a backup safety is a must, as I think Scott gets cut. Do they look for a RB and let Mixon go? Cutting Mixon and Scott saves around $10M. Bengals would have somewhere around 70+M to spend. Take off $20 for Higgins' tag...and you still have $50M.

Maybe they look for a 3-Tech in F/A to pair next to reader? Maybe they look for a rotational guy at DE to pair with Hubbard/Hendrickson/Murphy...

Do they look TE? The 1 year deals are still there - I think they'd bring back Sample and Hudson - but if there is a sure-fire starter that fits the bill do they finally cross that off this season? Guys who could fit the bill, and still would have a few years before age 30 - Schultz, Gesicki, Fant...

They lose Boyd. I know they have Jones and Yoshi - but if a solid slot guy is out there...do you grab him knowing you will also be losing Tee next year...shoring up Chase, Slot, and depth before Higgins leaves would really help lessen the blow - as would maybe adding that TE I mentioned above.

In other words - if the Bengals do kick the can on Chase - they are going to have a lot of money to play with - and there could be more than 1 surprise signing as you mentioned - could be 2, or 3.

This team has made some big signings in the Taylor era. Reader, Hendrickson, and OBJ are all guys that nobody figured we would be in the market. My guess is that the big splash will be at DT - I wonder if they jump in on Madubuike or Wilkins. That would be like the Hendrickson year.....Let one injury-prone guy leave (Reader this time rather than Lawson) and find a younger replacement.

I don't think they would seriously do it, but it would be interesting to see them throw some cash at Saquon Barkley. CBS projects him signing for an average of 6 million per year. He would be an ideal back in the Bengals offense and his usage wouldn't need to be as high with Chase Brown on board.