Chicago Cubs Offseason

[ChicagoIrish]

It's going to be a busy one.

We're off to a poor start after losing out on our top prize, Joe Girardi.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Arizona Fall League update

Kris Bryant- 2 games, 5 for 9, 1 hr, 5 rbi's, 3 runs, 1 double

Albert Almora- 1 game, 4 for 5, 1 hr, 3 rbi's, 3 runs, 1 double

Jorge Soler- 2 games, 2 for 11, 0 hr, 4 rbi's, 2 runs, 2 doubles

 

[ChicagoIrish]

I know I'm a few days late here.

Cubs sign Ryan Sweeney to a 2 year, 3.5 million dollar deal.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I'm not sure it will be that busy of an off-season. With the things coming out about payroll limitations due to the language in the sell contract Tanaka might not be an option. The stuff that has come out over the last few weeks has said that only baseball income can be spent on payroll and that Ricketts can't reach into his pocket for payroll. It also says that the loans must be repaid from baseball income. This means that the payroll limitations of the last few years, $105M give or take, are going to be around for another 3-4 years.

 

[anotheridiot]

It will be busy enough, signing second and third tier free agents theo thinks he can sell at the deadline again. Hopefully this year though, its some of the youth that are playing in the big leagues when they sell what he buys now. I just want them to give Vitters, Olt, Villanueva, Baez a legit shot at third base and not buy or sign a waived player. When they do sell I reall need to see the kids up here and not traded away.

Baseball income should go up some. The only changes we might see by opening day are the revenue signs installed. I still see no need to even have that 105 million dollar payroll. He signed Jackson who had a half dozen good outings out of 30. I will be satisfied when Baez, Bryant, Soler are earning big money to make the big payroll everyone wants. The dirty birds are showing its not all in buying talent, its developing your own.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

The only reason I care about the payroll size is that I'd like them to get Tanaka. I'm not sure they will sign much, if anything, to be flipped this year. With Wood-Samardzija-EJax locked into the rotation and a few candidates for the 5th starter spot they might sign one Feldman/Maholm type to be flipped if they don't get Tanaka.

The infield is pretty much set with Rizzo, Barney, Castro, Valbuena, Watkins and a potential showing from Olt or Villanueva. In the OF you have Lake, Schierholtz and Sweeney that will be on the roster. Then you have guys like Vitters, who has been moved to LF, Szczur, Ha, Bogusevic, etc. Maybe they add a short-term OF or maybe they go with Vitters-Lake-Schierholtz, which would be my preference and I believe yours as well, AI. With Baez and Alcantara looking to be mid-season call-ups I don't see there being much of them adding anyone in the infield unless it is someone like a Ryan Theriot type that you know is a back-up and you can release when your ready to call up the prospects.

So the only options I see for a short-term player of potential value would be OF or SP. I see OF as much more likely for a short-term signing as they have SPs they can evaluate like Arrieta and Rusin and then Hendricks who should be ready mid-season. My hope is they land Tanaka then let Arrieta, Raley and Rusin fight for the 5th starer spot. It is also unlikely that Soler would get called up this year so maybe they need an OF spot for Bryant so signing one then flipping them and/or Schierholtz would open a spot for Bryant. It is possible we don't see Bryant or Soler this season.

I don't see many spots on the roster for FAs unless they make a big move like trade for David Price. Assuming, theoretically, they could get him for Castro, Vogelbach and C.J. Edwards then maybe they would add an infielder that would expect some playing time. That is a total hypothetical as I haven't heard any rumors that the Cubs are going after Price or what the cost would be, but it is just an example of what might cause them to be active in the FA market in an unexpected way.

 

[anotheridiot]

Well I dont want an outfielder to bench Lake. Nobody gives him much credit for making adjustments last season and being a streaky hitter much like soriano was. If he ends up being the super sub, then he needs time in right field and third base. So we get more of a derosa type any position player. That at least sounds like a plan for the future.
I dont know where the thirdbasemen are lined up now. If olt straightens out his concussion syndrome he should get the nod, Jed did say some players are gonna be moving positions in the minors, didnt say if it includes Baez or Bryant. I think the infield with barney is far from set. If he hits .200 again its time to just platoon him with valbuena or Watkins, but Dale was too set on trying to get his gold glove to bench him for terrible hitting. We lost that chance to learn much about Watkins giving him a few at bats and two or three starts. We will see if the next manager has a man crush on Villanueva to use him at the platoon at second.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

I'm not sure it will be that busy of an off-season. With the things coming out about payroll limitations due to the language in the sell contract Tanaka might not be an option. The stuff that has come out over the last few weeks has said that only baseball income can be spent on payroll and that Ricketts can't reach into his pocket for payroll. It also says that the loans must be repaid from baseball income. This means that the payroll limitations of the last few years, $105M give or take, are going to be around for another 3-4 years.

I think looking for a manager/coaching staff, makes it a busy off season in it's own right.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Well I dont want an outfielder to bench Lake. Nobody gives him much credit for making adjustments last season and being a streaky hitter much like soriano was. If he ends up being the super sub, then he needs time in right field and third base. So we get more of a derosa type any position player. That at least sounds like a plan for the future.

They don't need to jump Lake around this year. I'd like to see him get thrown in CF and left there all year. I do see him as a potential Derosa type long-term IF they end up not trading anyone. If Alcantara struggles at the big league level maybe Lake ends up at 2B. If they trade Castro then maybe Lake ends up in LF. If Almora gets traded then maybe Lake sticks as the CF. It also doesn't take a trade, but someone stalling out either by injury or not developing as expected.

The have said that Baez will play SS in AAA with Alcantara at 2B. Alcantara got moved off SS in AA last year when Baez got promoted. Bryant will play some RF and LF in Arizona, but is expected to ply 3B in AA and we'll see what happens in AAA when he could be on a team with at least one of Olt and Villanueva. Vitters has been moved to LF.

I understand why they gave Barney every chance to turn it around. If he can be just decent with the bat then he can be traded for a solid prospect from a team that needs a 2B. I think Valbuena will become the utility infielder when Baez and Alcantara get promoted. Outside of Castro, Rizzo and Castillo there aren't any position players you want to pencil in at a position long-term. Lake being someone I see on the team for the next 5+ years, but his position isn't defined yet.

As for the busy off-season; I jut don't see hiring a manager and a few coaches as a busy off-season. That should be wrapped up in 2-3 weeks. We know there is very little chance of them being players in FA unless it is for a one-year SP or Tanaka unless they get in on the David Price sweepstakes. Position players will be limited to a one-year OF, probably more of a 4th OF type and maybe a utility infielder type and a back-up catcher. So the only things to look forward to after the first week of November will be the Tanaka bid, which would be great if they won, but I'm not holding my breathe, the David Price rumors, and then mid-level FAs in a weak FA class. The bigger stuff to me in the off-season will be AFL and other off-season stuff about prospects.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Manager/Coaching staff search
David Price rumors
Tanaka bidding
Rockies rumors
FA's signings, whether top FA's or Mid level FA's
Prospect watching in the Fall league

This all makes for a fairly busy off season.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Arizona Fall League update

Kris Bryant- 2 games, 5 for 9, 1 hr, 5 rbi's, 3 runs, 1 double

Albert Almora- 1 game, 4 for 5, 1 hr, 3 rbi's, 3 runs, 1 double

Jorge Soler- 2 games, 2 for 11, 0 hr, 4 rbi's, 2 runs, 2 doubles

Arizona Fall League update

Kris Bryant- 4 games, 8 for 18, 2 hr, 8 rbi's, 5 runs, 1 double

Albert Almora- 3 games, 8 for 14, 1 hr, 8 rbi's, 6 runs, 3 doubles

Jorge Soler- 5 games, 5 for 26, 0 hr, 4 rbi's, 4 runs, 3 doubles

 

[anotheridiot]

Davey Martinez in town today. I hope he nails the interview and he signs the contract before heading to the airport. None of the other candidates excite me at all. I understand though, the this might be theo just getting in the mind of an organization and Maddon, but out of the three other yawner candidates, I think Davey is best for us right now.

Imagine what the Rays would be if they never had to trade away their talent. Thats what the big market cubs could do. I know they allowed some to leave like Upton because he was not worth the contract, and definitely moved their guys for great prospects, getting Archer, Lee and Fuld from us from Garza even, Meyers for Shields, so some turnover is good, I just think the cubs decide to keep the right ones and Davey has the roadmap Maddon has used to win the strongest division of the past decade, especially with our NL central having 3 playoff teams, its right on that road.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I think the more important thing is going to be the feel for how the GM-Manager relationship is going to work. Martinez has seen it from a unique perspective where Maddon is told that he will get players at a certain time regardless of when he actually wants them and he accepts that. Martinez having seen that is more likely to know his role, so to speak, then someone who hasn't experienced first hand a team practicing good baseball business.

Take the Marlins for example and bringing up Jose Fernandez at the start of the season. They will not be trading him away a year sooner then they would have if they had waited until June to bring him up. The Rays would never do that. The model the Cubs are using and Theo's history indicates they are unlikely to do that. Martinez's understanding of that and experience with it probably gives him an edge in the potential relationship and expectations he would have of Theo and Hoyer to bring guys like Baez, Bryant, Soler, etc up.

The Rays are also big on stats and Martinez is the one who gets the big folder with all the numbers for every series and gives Maddon the information during the game. So him already being used to making suggestions based on statistics and understanding how important the advanced metrics are to in-game decisions will probably be a strong selling point for him with the front office as well. The more I look into Martinez the more I like him as a manager candidate. MLB doesn't like for teams to make announcements on days with a playoff game so hopefully we'll hear something official this weekend or early next week when there is an off day.

 

[anotheridiot]

I think the more important thing is going to be the feel for how the GM-Manager relationship is going to work. Martinez has seen it from a unique perspective where Maddon is told that he will get players at a certain time regardless of when he actually wants them and he accepts that. Martinez having seen that is more likely to know his role, so to speak, then someone who hasn't experienced first hand a team practicing good baseball business.

Take the Marlins for example and bringing up Jose Fernandez at the start of the season. They will not be trading him away a year sooner then they would have if they had waited until June to bring him up. The Rays would never do that. The model the Cubs are using and Theo's history indicates they are unlikely to do that. Martinez's understanding of that and experience with it probably gives him an edge in the potential relationship and expectations he would have of Theo and Hoyer to bring guys like Baez, Bryant, Soler, etc up.

The Rays are also big on stats and Martinez is the one who gets the big folder with all the numbers for every series and gives Maddon the information during the game. So him already being used to making suggestions based on statistics and understanding how important the advanced metrics are to in-game decisions will probably be a strong selling point for him with the front office as well. The more I look into Martinez the more I like him as a manager candidate. MLB doesn't like for teams to make announcements on days with a playoff game so hopefully we'll hear something official this weekend or early next week when there is an off day.

I get that wait for the super two for arbitration and keep another year of service, but with what Theo showed with both castro and rizzo, he bought out the arbitration, the option year is the year they would be hitting free agency. I dont see Theo approaching it any different with Baez and will offer him a 70-80 million dollar deal he will not turn down to test the waters early. Soler is locked up long term, it doesnt matter when he starts playing. The Bryants, Almoras, Pierce Johnsons, yes, they can wait those two months unless we are close and they are ready. See, thats the difference I see. Use the Tampa and Miami strategy of getting players and CONTINUING THEIR DEVELOPMENT. but when miami and tampa are dangling them for their next line of prospects to turn into superstars, the cubs have the money to keep them.

I know there is the argument that they were not able to lock up shark, but honestly, we dont know what we have in shark. he might be a dominant starter, he might be another action jackson inning eating 3, he might be in the bullpen. you cant lock up at starter money if you cant see that far ahead.

Bottom line, I hate that Theo said none of the prospects will leave spring training on the team. To me, if Baez hits, plays third base and beats out olt, villanueva, valbuena, vitters and is our best option of a third baseman, I want him in chicago because I am confident if he does anything like castro to start his career, by the end of his second season he will be locked up. If he refuses to sign, goes to arbitration every year and leaves a year early, its one hell of a piece we will be trading away. Especially when the final option year is probably gonna be in the 15-18 million range anyway. To me the continued development with the right manager will make his progress better than castro.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Assuming they will buy out their arbitration years you are still giving yourself one less year of control meaning the FA or expensive year(s) will come sooner. So even if you lock them up long-term by not delaying you are spending more money on Baez, Bryant or whoever when you could be allocating that money to another player. You are giving a team that will not contend a minor improvement and costing a team that could contend a minor improvement. I'd rather see the team that has a chance maximized then the one that will struggle to play .500 ball.

Using Rizzo as the example, he will make $7M in 2018 and $11M in 2019. If they had called him up a month sooner that $11M would be in 2018 meaning they would have $4M less to spend in 2018 then they will now by delaying bringing him up until it gave them that extra year of control. So even if it is 100% certain they will lock them up to the same contract as Rizzo you are still taking a $4M hit to your payroll that could be used for a better relief pitcher or used on a guy they could pick up late in the season to push them over the top that they can't afford because of two months of irrelevant baseball that took place 5ish years ago.

 

[anotheridiot]

I say that is thinking like a small market club. Most cub fans think the "deserve" a 150 million dollar payroll team at a minimum. I just want that 150 to be paid to the prospects who deserve it. I guess I look at it as a player wanting to be here, or a player who is forced to be here because of control. You are also not considering rizzo could be sorely underpaid with his contract. If he can hit closer to .280 and have more guys on base to drive in, hits 30 home runs and drives in 100, 11 million is nothing close to what he should be earning. If he does that next year, 11 million might have been awarded in arbitration next year since 20 million is the first baseman star going price. You are saving at least 4 million each of the next 5 seasons with rizzo on a team that is gonna be 50 million short of 150 million payroll. Its the choice of the term as well. If Baez is no doubt for a year and a half, sign him past that year you would have lost him. I kinda would like that first two months to give me more of a idea of what I have and have him play in 240-260 games for a sample size when you extend his contract not 180-200.

If you take shark as an example, if they were not paying Jackson 13 million for four years to be a inning eater, less than .500 pitcher with what 6 quality starts this season, do you think his demands would be as high to extend? Same way you decide you sign ellsbury or granderson and pay him 60 million, and he is not the best player on the team (much like Soriano) the kids out playing him will naturally think they deserve more since they can throw that money away.

If Castro, Rizzo and Baez are your best players, they should be the best paid players. If someone wants to throw a 300 million dollar contract at him like Trout might be seeing and he proves he is worth it, then if you want him you pay that. Castros option year is 16.5 million which might be close to what teams will be offering in free agency anyway.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I'm looking at it as the payroll is going to be whatever it is going to be. The money saved on Rizzo, Castro, Baez and whoever is going to be used in other ways to improve the organization.

Let me try it this way. If you were going to buy a car and house and you have a certain total amount you wee going to spend. Then you found the car you wanted and were able to get it for less then you expected. You now have two options. One, you can tell the guy you are getting the car from that you are going to give him more then he wants because you feel the car is worth more. Two, you take the saved money from the car and put it into a better house. I'm assuming you'd keep the money and go for the better house or a better entertainment system in the house, etc. Some sort of improvement in another area because you saved the money in one spot.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Arizona Fall League update

Kris Bryant- 4 games, 8 for 18, 2 hr, 8 rbi's, 5 runs, 1 double

Albert Almora- 3 games, 8 for 14, 1 hr, 8 rbi's, 6 runs, 3 doubles

Jorge Soler- 5 games, 5 for 26, 0 hr, 4 rbi's, 4 runs, 3 doubles

Arizona Fall League update

Kris Bryant- 6 games, 11 for 26, 4 hr, 12 rbi's, 8 runs, 2 doubles

Albert Almora- 5 games, 10 for 24, 1 hr, 8 rbi's, 6 runs, 4 doubles

Jorge Soler- 7 games, 8 for 35, 0 hr, 5 rbi's, 5 runs, 3 doubles

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Arizona Fall League update

Kris Bryant- 6 games, 11 for 26, 4 hr, 12 rbi's, 8 runs, 2 doubles

Albert Almora- 5 games, 10 for 24, 1 hr, 8 rbi's, 6 runs, 4 doubles

Jorge Soler- 7 games, 8 for 35, 0 hr, 5 rbi's, 5 runs, 3 doubles

Arizona Fall League update

Kris Bryant- 8 games: .438 4 hr, 13 rbi's, 10 runs, 3 doubles, .486 OBP, .906 SLG, 1.393 OPS

Albert Almora- 6 games, .379, 1 hr, 9 rbi's, 6 runs, 4 doubles

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Bryant and Almora are killing it. Soler got back today and had a good game going 3-4. Got his line up to .282/.282/.359. Coming back from an injury that kept him pretty much off his feet for a while I expected a little rust. As he gets back into playing shape and gets his timing back I expect his numbers to end up strong.

A lot of interesting prospects should be starting in AAA next year. Baez, Alcantara, Villanueva, Hendricks, Jokisch and Neil Ramirez being the ones I'm most interested in. Szczur and Ha in the OF could make some noise as well. In AA Soler and Bryant should make a lot of noise. Almora in high A. I hope C.J. Edwards and Pierce Johnson both start the year in AA, but I could see Edwards starting in high A.

The winter meetings could be busier for the Cubs then initially thought. I've heard some rumblings about trading Samardzija and Wood for prospects. While I'm sure they could get 5-6 good prospects for them if they do move them I'd expect that they would have to be planning on winning the bid on Tanaka and making a bigger push for Price then most expect. I will be surprised if it actually happens, but based on the return they got for Garza I could see the logic in moving Samardzija and/or Wood, but they would have to either get prospects that are closer to big league ready then they have been accumulating or add some follow-up moves to replace/upgrade those spots in the rotation.