Who is your early MVP choice

[SteelersPride]

I think the argument for Mahomes over Rivers right now is brute force TD's and a minimal difference elsewhere. Within .6 in INT%, Within 1% in Sack%, etc. May have a better team, but the offense is also putting up historical numbers so I don't think that hurts him that much either. Helps to have the QBWINZ over Rivers in the MVP voting, but that's kind of dumb tbh.

I have gurley n brees over him too

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I have gurley n brees over him too

I think I object to Gurley out of analytical principle at this point with RB's. I'd put Goff and Donald ahead of Gurley on just the Rams.

 

[SteelersPride]

I think I object to Gurley out of analytical principle at this point with RB's. I'd put Goff and Donald ahead of Gurley on just the Rams.

Check Goff’s numbers they aren’t great.... he had two great games

 

[KingOfStats]

Also Rivers has been the most consistent QB. Scored atleast 2 td passes in every game, only qb to do that

 

[DHoey]

Check Goff’s numbers they aren’t great.... he had two great games

Goff's a chump, always will be. They have enough weapons around him to cover it up right now, but if they ever had to lean on him....

 

[KingOfStats]

I think the argument for Mahomes over Rivers right now is brute force TD's and a minimal difference elsewhere. Within .6 in INT%, Within 1% in Sack%, etc. May have a better team, but the offense is also putting up historical numbers so I don't think that hurts him that much either. Helps to have the QBWINZ over Rivers in the MVP voting, but that's kind of dumb tbh.

Mahones has had games with 0 tds and multiple ints. Rivers has had 0 games with multiple ints and every game he has thrown atleast 2 tds. Also giving Mahones credit for those 2 jet sweep td passes week 1 is SOS, stat over substance. He essentially handed off the ball.

 

[shopson67]

Goff's a chump, always will be. They have enough weapons around him to cover it up right now, but if they ever had to lean on him....

The only reason Goff's passing numbers aren't better is because they don't need to be. Gurley is the first choice on that offense. Gurley is your MVP so far.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Mahones has had games with 0 tds and multiple ints. Rivers has had 0 games with multiple ints and every game he has thrown atleast 2 tds. Also giving Mahones credit for those 2 jet sweep td passes week 1 is SOS, stat over substance. He essentially handed off the ball.

While true he had zero passing TD's in the Jags game, he did have a YPA over 8 and a rushing TD with the only sack being of zero consequence, so it's not nearly as gross as it looks from a TD:INT ratio perspective.

While the skill involved in the jet sweep tap passes is basically next to zero- you can say much the same of screens and a variety of plays which are essentially 1 read in nature such as many plays involving slants; it's an old argument with a new skin, and creates a lot of complicated and largely subjective obstacles without significant charting data that everyone can agree on or largely agree on with a high kappa score. Basically, that will not happen here because we are not pros at this. It's not that I don't acknowledge it, it just explodes the argument beyond the scope the two of us can honestly argue about.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

What am i reading in the thread that is convincing anyone of anything?

Rivers is 3rd in tds

Rivers is 2nd in passer rating

Rivers is 8th in yds

Rivers is 7th in comp%

Rivers is 3rd in ypa

Team is 5-2

Is the best qb vs pressure and play action

Is 3rd in big plays

So if we look at vs front runner Mahones. Rivers has less ints, higher comp%, higher passer rating, higher ypa.

So, casual... how is this "nope" again?

well when you compare that stats you hand picked for this comparison to Drew Brees, Rivers loses in all but YPA.

Honestly unless a RB runs for over 2k it will be a QB with no real consideration to other positions for those thinking Gurley.
I also think this will be Brees' award to lose. So unless he falls off a cliff late in the year I think he wins it.
Not only does he have the play & the stats this year. he is breaking all the all time records this year which will also sway voters. Right or wrong this will happen.

 

[KingOfStats]

Just to continue touching on the consistency angle. Goffs worst game of the season 58 passer rating, mahones 67, Brees 77, Rivers 97. So i fail to see any single argument where Rivers isnt in the top 3 or 4 discussion. Help me see the error in my ways.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Just to continue touching on the consistency angle. Goffa worst game of the season 58 passer rating, mahones 67, Brees 77, Rivers 97. So i fail to see any single argument where Rivers isnt in the top 3 or 4 discussion. Help me see the error in my ways.

I think you make a good case for Rivers. Who honestly wasnt even on my radar, but I still dont see him actually winning it.
As far as being in the top 3 or 4. You make a sound argument.

 

[KingOfStats]

well when you compare that stats you hand picked for this comparison to Drew Brees, Rivers loses in all but YPA.

Honestly unless a RB runs for over 2k it will be a QB with no real consideration to other positions for those thinking Gurley.
I also think this will be Brees' award to lose. So unless he falls off a cliff late in the year I think he wins it.
Not only does he have the play & the stats this year. he is breaking all the all time records this year which will also sway voters. Right or wrong this will happen.

While i agree with the sentiment, i think right now its Mahones to lose. Not because he deserves it, imo. As i think Hill is the catalyst that makes that offense move. Its just due to the hype and noise around mahones mania right now. If KC fizzles out, i can see Brees or Rivers depending on continued play and team success taking the lead.

 

[KingOfStats]

While true he had zero passing TD's in the Jags game, he did have a YPA over 8 and a rushing TD with the only sack being of zero consequence, so it's not nearly as gross as it looks from a TD:INT ratio perspective.

While the skill involved in the jet sweep tap passes is basically next to zero- you can say much the same of screens and a variety of plays which are essentially 1 read in nature such as many plays involving slants; it's an old argument with a new skin, and creates a lot of complicated and largely subjective obstacles without significant charting data that everyone can agree on or largely agree on with a high kappa score. Basically, that will not happen here because we are not pros at this. It's not that I don't acknowledge it, it just explodes the argument beyond the scope the two of us can honestly argue about.

I agree with this to an extent. Because to me a screen is harder than people think. If its a a rb screen, qbs have to have great touch and vision to get it over defenders and between olinemen and dlinemen with the rb in ther catcher box. If its bubble screen, you need placement and to lead the receivers so they can be in a stride stance and not have to track the pass.

With a jailbreak screen placement is even more inportant so they dont break their initial stride. I agree with the single read perspective, but with screens there is more variables that can create negative play scores, which makes them more skill reliant plays. With a jet sweep, the probability of a negative play is as low as a standard handoff.

 

[KingOfStats]

I think you make a good case for Rivers. Who honestly wasnt even on my radar, but I still dont see him actually winning it.
As far as being in the top 3 or 4. You make a sound argument.

That was my main argument, that Rivers deserves to be in the argument.

 

[shopson67]

well when you compare that stats you hand picked for this comparison to Drew Brees, Rivers loses in all but YPA.

Honestly unless a RB runs for over 2k it will be a QB with no real consideration to other positions for those thinking Gurley.
I also think this will be Brees' award to lose. So unless he falls off a cliff late in the year I think he wins it.
Not only does he have the play & the stats this year. he is breaking all the all time records this year which will also sway voters. Right or wrong this will happen.

Needs the wins too.

If Gurley actually plays all 16 (rested late last season), he's projected for: 1568 rush, 57-617 receiving, 32 TDs. That TD total will difficult to ignore.

 

[Myles]

An MVP would go a long way in building a Hall of Fame career for Rivers. I wouldn't put him in yet.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Needs the wins too.

If Gurley actually plays all 16 (rested late last season), he's projected for: 1568 rush, 57-617 receiving, 32 TDs. That TD total will difficult to ignore.

agreed. He would be on the ballot so to speak, but realistically I think every knows this day & age it is going to a QB. in fact with the rules I wonder how many QBs will get to 5000 yds this year.

 

[shopson67]

agreed. He would be on the ballot so to speak, but realistically I think every knows this day & age it is going to a QB. in fact with the rules I wonder how many QBs will get to 5000 yds this year.

Sure, but if everyone is doing it, how special is that performance?

 

[Clayton]

While i agree with the sentiment, i think right now its Mahones to lose. Not because he deserves it, imo. As i think Hill is the catalyst that makes that offense move.

This is in the 'everything is connected' territory. Hunt,Hill and Kelce are all equally important imo. In the Patriots game, you saw the Pats go out of their way to takeaway Kelce and Hill and you saw the Chiefs eventually adjust and use Hunt. Late game it seemed that they shifted towards taking away Kelce and Hunt and Mahomes started finding Hill. There isn't a single catalyst.

It would be like saying that Keenan Allen is the catalyst on the Chargers. Allen might be the best played on that offense but its hard to single out one player.

As far as MVP, I'd rank them:

1. Mahomes
2. Brees
3. Rivers
4. Gurley

But if the Rams end up with the best record then I wouldn't have too much of an issue with Gurley getting it. I think its early enough in the season that anyone of these 4 should be seen as a frontrunner.

 

[KingOfStats]

This is in the 'everything is connected' territory. Hunt,Hill and Kelce are all equally important imo. In the Patriots game, you saw the Pats go out of their way to takeaway Kelce and Hill and you saw the Chiefs eventually adjust and use Hunt. Late game it seemed that they shifted towards taking away Kelce and Hunt and Mahomes started finding Hill. There isn't a single catalyst.

It would be like saying that Keenan Allen is the catalyst on the Chargers. Allen might be the best played on that offense but its hard to single out one player.

As far as MVP, I'd rank them:

1. Mahomes
2. Brees
3. Rivers
4. Gurley

But if the Rams end up with the best record then I wouldn't have too much of an issue with Gurley getting it. I think its early enough in the season that anyone of these 4 should be seen as a frontrunner.

Fair enough. But i think its a little different. Allen has 1 td, where his counter WRs the Williams brothers have 4 each. I just think the dynamic Hill adds to an offense and how dangerous he is, it makes the defense play in space which opens up everything below and alot of yac chances or they align coverage to hill which opens up everyone else. If not mistaken Hill leads the NFL in td passes. Hill almost single handedly beat the Chargers.