Who's been the best Acquisition of the Off-Season?

[Vedder79]

On another note, regarding Alex Smith, I think that Andy Reid's offense will have a very positive impact on his development.

 

[MHSL82]

I understand your sentiment MHSL82 but my usage was not meant as a derogatory term. My definition of a game manager is someone who, though they are not going to carry a team on their back to victory, works the clock, doesn't turn the ball over and keeps their team in games. Smith is very good at doing these things which in and of it self will help the Chiefs improve drastically over our past seasons' performance.

I suppose it can be viewed as condescending in a way but not how I interpret it. I would never call Smith a bust because I think he's consistently dealt with change throughout his career and has always been solid both on and off the field. He may not have lived up to his number 1 pick overall status but then again, at the time he was drafted, he had no where near the supporting cast that is in San Fran now. I have full confidence that Smith will be good for the Chiefs but I just don't see him as a QB who can take this team to where I would like them to be given the price paid for him.

Again, I hope I'm wrong about this and will be the first to admit it if I am. Smith is a good QB, I just wouldn't call him great. I hear what you're saying about the moniker and perhaps I'll hesitate to use it in the future considering some view it as an insult. That said, I'd take a good game manager, by my definition, over a number of the more highly touted QBs in the NFL.

Anyways,

Just my thoughts,

Go Chiefs!

Thanks for your clarification.

I agree with your definition and thus won't take it as a slight, but I do think Smith can carry a team if the system calls for it, like a pass-happy Reid team (so I don't see him as a game manager - I saw that in 2011 but he was trending in the right direction in 2012, IMO). Some people will disagree with me and we all have different definitions of carrying (I do think KC will need some to some degree). But the good thing is we all get to see how that will turn out, as I doubt Reid can change to a run-based offense (though Smith will audible into run plays).

 

[willtalk]

Just need to clarify a mis-perception. The 49ers line was elite at opening holes for the run but as far as pass protection they were average at best.

 

[Mr Wahoo]

i

I agree with you that it is a QB driven league but I'm still not sure about the Alex Smith deal. He is certainly an upgrade over Cassel but, let's face it, that's not saying a whole lot. I'm hoping that he proves me wrong but I really do feel that we gave up too much to get a guy who was most likely going to be cut by the 49ers anyway. I have a feeling that in four years we'll be talking about how we passed on Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib and Mike Glennon for Alex Smith.

Again, I hope I'm wrong, and I'm sure that we will be much more competitive with Smith under centre as opposed to the piles of garbage that played there last year but I guess only time will tell as to whether or not Smith was worth the 34th pick and a conditional 2nd or 3rd next year.

Just my thoughts,

Go Chiefs!

P.S. Surprise, surprise! MA back on the Chiefs board!

Chiefs got a good Qb when they got A.Smith...he wants to win so bad it will rub off on the whole team! Chiefs will be a tough team to beat IMO!

 

[Jadianonyx]

Game manager is not a negative term, when the QB uses all the time in a quarter to drive field and score. That is what a Game Manager does. Uses time, gets scores, and keeps Opponents offence off field. Manning can't beat anyone, if he isn't on field. I felt Smith and Reid were two influential changes for KC, but the best is the Secondary upgrades. We have depth that most could start on other teams, i.e Smith and Robinson, with Lewis and Flowers, then we also have three of the top four LB's in AFC west. Expect D to be very good and opportunistic.

 

[MHSL82]

Game manager is not a negative term, when the QB uses all the time in a quarter to drive field and score. That is what a Game Manager does. Uses time, gets scores, and keeps Opponents offence off field. Manning can't beat anyone, if he isn't on field. I felt Smith and Reid were two influential changes for KC, but the best is the Secondary upgrades. We have depth that most could start on other teams, i.e Smith and Robinson, with Lewis and Flowers, then we also have three of the top four LB's in AFC west. Expect D to be very good and opportunistic.

It isn't a negative term in and of itself per se. Culturally to QBs, I think it is, but in general, not necessarily. I just feel that the way it was originally used was negative and now when used, even if in a good way, presents some limitation that need not be there. As I said above, I'd rather have someone say he's the 20th best like Jaworski says than to say he's top 15 because of his game manager efficiency. Have a standard for everyone and rank him. If XX number are better than he is, so be it. It doesn't bug me if he's lower on that list. That at least gives him room to move up if he gets better and lower if he doesn't.

Calling him a game manager, to me, no matter how he does, leaves people with the out to say he was just used well, relied on defense and running, etc. That stuff may be true, but that can be reflected in a ranking instead and that can change. Game manager puts a cap on a certain level of play and any level above that is explained away by everyone else. If he's the weak link on a great team, just rank him lower.

I do agree that he was used like a Game Manager in 2011 and was calm and talented enough to get 6 comeback victories within that (though his four losses obviously lacked the comebacks). In 2012, I think he started to do more, nothing world-shattering, but more. I feel Reid will not use him as a game manager and if Smith struggles, that shows where he should rank. If he succeeds, that should adjust, too.

 

[MHSL82]

To those who will say that he will struggle in a pass happy Reid offense, that may or may not be true. It's not like he'll succeed the first 29 passes and then start throwing INTs and incomplete passes on throws 30+. Reid will use first and second down, downs that the defense expects Charles to run, and Reid will have intermediate passes that Smith is better at. Reid likes to pass to the RB and FB, too. Jaworski said that Smith was one of the best statistically on first and second down and option plays, FWIW. Some of that is personnel, offense style, etc. but some of it's the QB.

Smith could struggle or he could do better than some expect, but I don't think Reid will run Harbaugh's offense in terms of pass-run ratio. Some passes will be short like runs. Harbaugh ran more passed with Andrew Freaking Luck and I believe he did with Kaepernick in some games. Reid passed a lot with all his QBs. I assume he knows how to increase the passes and look for strengths in Smith's game, too. It's not mutually exclusive.

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith gives Chiefs what they need - AFC West Blog

Random thoughts from the Kansas City Chiefs’ 26-20 overtime win at Pittsburgh on Saturday night:

A week after he sagged against his former team, San Francisco, new Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith was terrific in the most important preseason game of the summer. Smith was 17-of-24 passing for 158 yards and he added a 38-yard run. I think people forget that about Smith. He can make things happen with his feet.

It was the type of performance the Chiefs are looking for from Smith. He played smart, ball-control football. Smith was good in the Chiefs’ preseason opener at New Orleans and he had a strong camp. The Chiefs have to be feeling great about him as the season opener at Jacksonville looms in two weeks.

Smith’s backup, Chase Daniel, also played well as he led the overtime win.

The Chiefs’ unbelievable summer on special teams continued. Rookie running back Knile Davis had a 109-yard kickoff return for a score. Last week, Quintin Demps returned a kick 104 yards for a score. The Chiefs had success in the return game in the preseason opener as well. Also, Saturday night, the Chiefs blocked a Pittsburgh field-goal attempt. As a unit, the Kansas City special teams has been brilliant in all three preseason games. New coach Dave Toub is making a huge difference. That type of work on special teams can win some games in the regular season.

Receiver A.J. Jenkins played some Saturday night. He was targeted once, but he didn’t have a catch. He was acquired in a deal with San Francisco for fellow former first-round pick Jon Baldwin. Jenkins was San Francisco’s first-round pick last year. He didn’t have a catch as a rookie.

Kansas City’s pass-rush continued to excel. The Chiefs had five sacks against the Steelers.

Starting receivers Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery each had six catches.

Kansas City’s offensive line wasn’t great for the second straight game. It allowed five sacks.

Reserve receivers Rico Richardson (who caught eh game winner) and Junior Hemingway helped their causes with touchdown catches.

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith and The Run Game; The Defense; in the Red-Zone (random info)

I figured I would write a second article since my first was so well received. Since I was relatively new to Arrowhead Pride at the time I wrote the article, I did not know that much of the content had already been mentioned in some great posts by juvatbull and Andrew Carroll. This post will be much shorter than my first, and will focus mainly on the few things I noticed have not been written about.

Since the topic of this article is also Alex Smith, a quick overview of my feelings on his play might be useful. I think Smith is a very underrated quarterback, particularly in terms of his ability to produce "highlight" plays and a lot of passing yards but also, and obviously most importantly, in his ability to win games. I think the most commonly held views about Smith place undue value on an improperly held conception of the performance in his early years, and I think that while he did improve under Harbaugh, he was running a toned-down offense that may have negatively affected his play in some areas. Some of these will be covered here, but most of them will be covered in my next long-form article that will deal with how Smith's unique talents fit into Reid's WCO offense. This is just a fun little article concerning random aspects of Smith's history and play.

Smith in College

It is easy to look back at the 2005 draft and say the 49ers (and 20 other teams I might add) made a mistake not drafting Aaron Rodgers, but some context might be helpful. Both Smith and Rodgers were coming off amazing college seasons, but there were question marks surrounding both QB's. Rodgers was viewed negatively because he was a product of Jeff Tedford and Smith was viewed as a system QB who benefitted from a creative offensive scheme. Opinions on their NFL futures varied wildly from team to team.

College sports are great only because of the underdog factor present in almost every game. When you learn that many attribute this phenomenon to rampant corruption and favoritism in the NCAA, some of the fun goes away, but still.

Everyone loves seeing Boise State trounce higher ranked BCS teams every year and arguing about the possibility of NCAA playoffs, but do you know the first team to ever "bust the BCS?" It was the 2004 Utah Utes, led by none other than Alex Smith. That season Smith led the Utes to a 12-0 record and a #4 ranking in the AP poll, a ranking that proved to be a little low when they routed Pitt 35-7 in the Fiesta Bowl. Here is a great video that documents that game.


When Urban Meyer led the Gators to multiple BCS championships with Tim Tebow he was hailed as a genius. But when he was the original "BCS Buster" with the Utes, it was Alex Smith, the "Prince of Precision," who got the credit.

The Utes were 12-0 in 2004 and 10-2 in 2003. As a starter at Helix High School (with Reggie Bush as his RB) Smith was undefeated as a starter. Smith had only lost two football games ever when he was drafted first overall in the 2005 draft. This is not to say that he was amazing or anything, but man that 2005 season must have sucked. He threw 32 TD's and 4 INT's in 2004 (rushing for 10 more TD's) and had only 1 total TD to 11 INT's in 2005.

Alex Smith in the Red Zone

As I noted in my first article, "Alex Smith played football before Jim Harbaugh was his coach. Remember?" I do believe Smith improved overall as a QB under Harbaugh but there were some areas I felt he was restrained, particularly big play opportunity. After reading juvatbull's articles about Smith's passing splits I wanted to take a peak at his redzone stats and I noticed something else.

Under Harbaugh, Smith saw his attempts reduced drastically; Harbaugh tailored his gameplan around conservative QB play and this hinged on a paranoid QB. I do not have any tangible evidence to back this up, but a quick glance at some game film tells me that Smith had a lot more freedom as a QB under Singletary. He was much more willing to scramble behind the line of scrimmage and make a play, he appeared more mobile (though he had some happy feet at times) and gunslinger-ish in his 2009-2010 seasons.

There were two features of the Alex Smith-led 49ers that no one really argues: they played lights out defense and they were much too willing to settle for FG's in the redzone. I think that this formula worked very well, but I also think that it was Harbaugh's doing and not Smith's.

I have not seen this mentioned anywhere, but I apologize if it has. Before Harbaugh became HC, the best facet of Smith's game was unquestionably his red-zone decision making and ad-libbing. In 2010, Smith led the league in redzone passer rating (112.8), throwing a whopping 13 TD's to 0 INT's, and, just in case you think this was a fluke, in 2009 he threw for 16 TD's and 0 INT's.

As soon as Harbaugh took over, his performance in the red-zone suffered. His completion pct. went from 70% in 2010 to 37% in 2011, and while he did throw 13 TD's again in 2011, he added 2 INT's.

In 2012 he threw 12 TD's and 2 INT's in the redzone over the first 8 games, but the INT's are deceiving. His comp pct. jumped to 74% in 2012 and over half of his attempts in the redzone went for TD's, which is pretty remarkable.

I am not sure what to expect of Smith's red-zone performance under Andy Reid, but if the preseason is any indicator, his ability to extend plays may be even better than before. This preseason I have seen Smith bend in half backwards Mike Vick-style to complete a pass and spin out of a sack like Tony Romo. Both his ability/willingness to extend plays and red-zone performance suffered under Harbaugh, but his improvement in the redzone from 2011-2012 suggests I might be overstating it.

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith and the Defense

(This section borrows heavily from an article written by Scott Kasmar, "Breaking the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers by the Numbers")

Something I have heard quite a bit is the idea that San Francisco's defense and running game helped "carry" the team when Smith was the quarterback, while more of the weight was carried by the QB position when Kaep was starting. I, actually, mostly agree with this assessment, but I am not sure the causality is demonstrated correctly.

I agree that Kaep shouldered more of the load when he was starting, but I have no idea why this is something to be valued. The fact is, the defense and the running game were both forced to take the backseat over the second half of the season in order for Kaep to be able to step into the spotlight.

Smith and the Niners set a bunch of old-school, quirky records while they were together. In 2011, they became the first team since the Decatur Staley's not to allow a rushing TD over the first 14 games of the season. In 2012, against the Bills, Smith and the Niners became the first team in NFL history to pass for 300 yards and rush for 300 yards in the same game, and their 621 yards that day was the 15th highest mark in history. The really funny thing about that game is that Smith only threw 24 passes, and only 9 in the second half. If Harbaugh hadn't abandoned the pass in the third quarter Smith could have topped 450 in this game easily. This type of balance between the offense/defense and passing/running games is largely absent in today's NFL.

People see these stats and assume the defense was causing Smith's performance, but what if I told you that Smith's performance directly benefitted the defense as well? What if I told you that in 2011, the Niners defense allowed only 14.3 points per game and that in the first 8 games of 2012 they were on track to best that mark, allowing only 12.9, but that as soon as Kaepernick took over they started allowing 21.3?

And, just in case you think that the offense also saw some kind of full TD per game increase, the offense scored 23.6 ppg under Smith and 26 with Kaep. Here is a great chart, mostly yanked from another article, that charts some of these stats. (It is, of course, worth noting that Smith and Kaepernick faced different teams over these games and also had to deal with varying injury issues on their own team (Justin Smith being of note))

Stat
Smith (Games 1-8)
Kaep (Games 9-16)
Record
6-2
5-2-1
Points Per Game
23.6
26
Points Allowed Per Game
12.9
21.3
Strength of Schedule
62-66(.484)
66-60-2(.523)
Passing YPA
7.97
8.32
Sack Pct.
9.92%
6.84%
Passer Rating
104.1
98.3
Team YPC
5.64
4.51
Frank Gore YPC
5.51
4.01
3rd Down Conversions
36/95 (.379)
32/99 (.323)
Red Zone TD Pct.
15/24 (.625)
13/31 (.419)

This argument may be a little too ambitious, but I will give it a shot. Many people hold the view that playing the "field position" and "time of possession" games are outdated strategies akin to "establishing the run." I am not so convinced, and contrary to popular opinion, I don't think scoring quickly is better than scoring slowly, and I don't think they are equal, I actually think that taking your time is much, much better; both when scoring in football and in life.

Why? Because you get to keep all of the momentum (you do have to finish these long drives), demoralize the other team by keeping them off the field, and keep your defense fresh and confident. Because new-school football thinking disagrees with me, and because coaches like Chip Kelly are becoming famous for winning games while losing both the "time of possession" and "field position" games, most of you probably disagree with me as well. New advanced football metrics like ESPN's EPA (expected points added) are built off the assumption that the goal of every play you run is to score the ball. It is this very assumption that led to Kaepernick's rise to stardom and the trade that resulted in your new starting QB.

I do not think Alex Smith is (necessarily) better than Colin Kaepernick, but I also think the days of San Francisco consistently having one of the top two scoring defenses in the league are over. You can't play explosive, boom/bust football on offense and consistently put your defense in the best possible situation; they simply don't go together.

Alex Smith and the Run Game

Reading the defense is a skill that is most often attributed to game managers, but I think it is a vital skill to have. As the chart shows, Kaepernick was much more explosive than Smith was on a per play basis, but isn't it surprising that the team averaged less yards per carry under Kaepernick? Look at the huge dip in Frank Gore's production. When Smith was under center Gore consistently ranked in the top five in YPC, but with Kaep under center he was averaging a very mediocre 4.01. For all the gushing you hear people do about the opportunities the read-option opens for the run game, it seems that a cerebral QB who continually changes plays to put his RB in the best position to succeed is a better asset to have.

Aaron Rodgers, like Colin Kaepernick is a very athletic QB with a cannon for an arm, but you won't either being described as cerebral. What very intelligent QB's are able to do is create opportunities for their run game by playing off what the defense gives them. Tom Brady, specifically, has been able to fabricate a run game for years without a marquee RB or run-blocking O-Line. This is one reason why Brady is a 4th quarter dynamo and Rodgers has trouble closing games. The 4th quarter is where you really need to know how to run it. (Don't believe me? http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/aaron-rodgers-mr-irrelevant-fourth-quarter/15278/ )

When Alex Smith and the Niners played Rodgers and the Pack Week 1, the Packers had not lost at Lambeau in their last 23 meetings. Smith was the first QB to beat Rodgers in his home building in almost two years, and he was able to do it exactly how that article implies you should try to beat the Pack: get on top early and control the clock to limit Rodgers' opportunities. The current Packers (much like Peyton Manning led-teams) are classic "front-runners." They play their best football when they get an early lead, and a big one. (Which, conveniently, they are able to do quite often)

Harbaugh ran a conservative, balanced offense with Smith under center. But, in order to get this early lead and beat one of the best teams in the NFL, Harbaugh had to rely on Smith, calling pass plays on 20 of the first 30 offensive snaps. After they got the lead, they relied on Smith's ability to control the game (by managing it, you might say) and keep Rodgers off the field and convincingly win the Time of Possession battle. Despite giving up a special teams TD, only causing one turnover and Smith throwing for almost 100 fewer yards than Rodgers, the Niners were able to come out of Title Town with a win. (To be clear, I am NOT saying Smith is a better QB than Rodgers)

Putting it all together

The Chiefs defense is going to make huge strides with Smith under center, and with a more sophisticated screen game at his disposal, Jamaal Charles should have endless opportunities with the football with Smith distributing it.

(I might have been able to get away with fewer words, because if any fanbase in the NFL should be open to the notion that QB play directly affects the performance of the defense, its the Chiefs)

One of the underlying assumptions of the original West Coast offense was that if you could get 4 yards with every offensive play you would win every game. In this new Madden-era of football, this seems to have been flipped on its head. Now fifty yards is fifty yards, whether it resulted from one of Joe Flacco's jaw-dropping heaves or one of Tom Brady's "boring" dink-and-dunk drives; I, for one, still think there is a difference.

Here are links to the two Scott Kacsmar articles that formed the basis of this article, and as usual, thanks for reading!

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/aaron-rodgers-mr-irrelevant-fourth-quarter/15278/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1497435-breaking-down-the-nfc-champion-san-francisco-49ers-by-the-numbers

 

[MHSL82]

Note: I did not write this article, just sharing. I don't necessarily agree with all or any of it. My friend sent it to me and so I wanted to share it with you.

 

[MHSL82]

'NFL Fantasy Live': Breakout Player of the Year - NFL Videos

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I am sure someone has said this already, but it I think it is Alex Smith only because he is that much better than Cassel.

 

[MHSL82]

Funny video by the Onion, a satirical/parody publication.

http://www.theonion.com/video/alex-smith-td-pass-challenged-on-grounds-it-was-th,26269/

 

[MHSL82]

Jon Gruden: “I Think Alex Smith Is In the Right Spot Now.”

Randy Covitz of the Kansas City Star talked with Former NFL coach and ESPN’s Monday Night Football analyst Jon Gruden last week about Chiefs starting quarterback Alex Smith.

“Alex Smith is the product of about 10 different coordinators,” Gruden said of Smith and the changeover in coaches he had in San Francisco. “No one really knows much about Alex Smith.”

Gruden said nobody “really” knows Smith, a player that’s been in the NFL for 8 seasons, but many think they do.

In many minds Smith has been sized up and spit out. What’s the stigma? That Smith’s game/arm (bubble) is weak? There are nonbelievers that say Smith can’t get the Chiefs far, not to the promise land, no… definitely not the Super Bowl.

John Dorsey told USA TODAY last week that he feels Smith can be a top-10 QB in the NFL.

“I believe he can be a top-10 quarterback, and here’s why,” Dorsey told Tom Pelissero of USA TODAY. “I think he’s got the athleticism. I think he’s got accuracy. I think he’s got really good reaction quickness. Once he gets comfortable with the offense, he reads defenses very well. I think the game’s slowed down for him.”

Lump what Dorsey said in with what offensive coordinator Doug Pederson already told reporters about Smith (Pederson basically said the same) and skeptics call that “ridiculous”.

Goofy talk!

Dorsey’s talking crazy again, Alex Smith a top-10 quarterback… get a load of this guy!

Come here Dorsey… what a knucklehead… (picture some burly biker missing up Dorsey’s hair) love everything you’ve done Dorsey, but stop acting like your QB is REALLY good!

You too Jon Gruden! What makes you think you know quarterbacks? What’s that? You won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson, OK, good point.

“He’s been in some horrific situations from the standpoint that he never had a chance to settle in and flourish in any system for an extended period of time,” said Gruden. “By hooking up with Andy Reid, who does an excellent job with quarterbacks, and being in a West Coast system, a progression passing offense, we’ll see the best of Alex Smith.

“And I know Andy Reid will have a few tricks up his sleeve to utilize Smith’s athletic ability. I think he’s in the right spot now. A lot of people are going to look at the Chiefs curiously to see how good Alex Smith really is.”

Little faith, Smith’s going to get that, even if established coaches like Reid and Gruden say different. Dorsey came from a successful team the Green Bay Packers, but doesn’t matter what Dorsey says either.

I guess what “others” say is much smarter. I do know I’m not smarter than Reid… or Gruden when it comes to QB’s. I know that.

Alex Smith said he wanted to “stick it” to the doubters. When asked about that Smith said it was to the ones he wants to prove wrong.

Smith, leader of the scrubs, he’s on a mission.

Man, I’m on your side Alex. Prove them wrong Smith, every last one of them.

Gruden thinks you can, your coach Andy Reid has faith you can, and Dwayne Bowe who said he can catch the ball and know where he’s going now says you can.

Fans need to see it, no problem, but let it happen folks… let it happen.

Good day, Chiefs fans!

 

[Black Adam]

I am sure someone has said this already, but it I think it is Alex Smith only because he is that much better than Cassel.

that'd be me. agree with you. just that much of an upgrade in QB alone is gonna be well worth it...

 

[MHSL82]

Not saying I agree, even with my admitted fandom of Alex Smith (and Sean Smith due to their college team), and I know why Bradshaw put him here, but here goes:

Watch: Terry Bradshaw's top 5 QBs

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Not saying I agree, even with my admitted fandom of Alex Smith (and Sean Smith due to their college team), and I know why Bradshaw put him here, but here goes:

Watch: Terry Bradshaw's top 5 QBs

Terry Bradshaw has said this many many times " He reminds me of me."

But besides that, I shudder at the thought of Cassel being the starter.

 

[NJBuckO's]

Right now it's between Smith and a FA CB from Rutgers..

 

[da55bums]

maybe it was not trading off Jamal Charles the last two years...food for thought...