Jack Z Job on the hot seat?

[seattlefan75]

Ok so assuming (which is very likely) that this team finishes in 3rd place (which is last place if the astros werent in the division) would Jack Z's GM job be on the hot seat or even fired at that? Sense taking over the mariners what has he done for us? Im keeping track of the key moves he has made sense taking the GM job.

1. Traded Cliff Lee to the Rangers for Justin Smoak

-was a top 10 prospect in the league with the rangers was suppose to be a power hitting that can hit around 40 homers and be an RBI #4 in the lineup type player.

in 1400 ABs his BA is .226 with his highest home run count being 19 back in 2012

2. Drafted Dustin Ackley #2 overall in 2009 draft

-I dont want to harp to much in a sense that nobody else in the 1st round is an all star other than mike trout and i guess Aaron crow

when we drafted him he was suppose to be a hitting machine that he hit .400 his freshman season at UNC but in 1000 AB's in the major he hit .239

3. Traded Michael Pineda to the yankees for jesus montero

- suppose to have a bat like miguel cabrera, dont need to get into the numbers other than we all know he is demoted to AAA

so I dont know if you guys still want to wait for Danny Hultzen to make his debut but who else thinks that Jack should be on the hot seat? because the way I look at it other than signing felix hernandez to that huge deal he hasnt done anything for us

 

[mcnabb7542]

Its all going to come down to there record by the end of the year. If there is more wins then last year then he's safe. If they take a step back (and with this starting pitching staff that might happen) then questions will be asked...

As to the young guys batting averages, a couple years ago Mike Blowers made one of the best comments hes ever had, it takes 1400-1500 at bats for a young player to start swing with better results. I believe that, I went back and pulled stats, Edgar started going up after 1500, Griffey, Pay Rod, heck even Tino Martinez....

 

[seattlefan75]

As to the young guys batting averages, a couple years ago Mike Blowers made one of the best comments hes ever had, it takes 1400-1500 at bats for a young player to start swing with better results. I believe that, I went back and pulled stats, Edgar started going up after 1500, Griffey, Pay Rod, heck even Tino Martinez....[/QUOTE]

Im going to have to disagree, dont get me wrong there are players that need those ABs but if montero,ackley,or smoak had edgars 1990 season or griffeys rookie season then things would be going a lot better for us

 

[mcnabb7542]

Your right it would be alot different, I'm not looking to make excuses for them, Smoak has been up for a while so his excuse are running out, ( and he has shown some life the past couple of weeks) Ackley is up and down, theres times when he hits the ball hard it just doesnt fall for him, Montero to me is so lazy at the plate, he is fooled 60% of the time now, hence why I believe they finally sent him down.

My whole issue with should Jack Z be on the hot seat is, for the simple fact I dont want to see another rebuild job in Seattle. They wont spend money, (proven fact with this ownership) Bavasi trying the whole build a team with veterans that were over paid and didnt play with a crap. This team right now is lacking a #3, #4 and #5 starting pitchers, you take away the no scoring in Anihiem this past road trip and the offense was scoring, it was poor pitching....

 

[blstoker]

I think it is really easy to look at moves from a future standpoint and think it was a bust, but really what else was he supposed to do?

1. Traded Cliff Lee to the Rangers for Justin Smoak

-was a top 10 prospect in the league with the rangers was suppose to be a power hitting that can hit around 40 homers and be an RBI #4 in the lineup type player.

in 1400 ABs his BA is .226 with his highest home run count being 19 back in 2012

As you pointed out, he was a top 10 prospect at the time, and though I don't remember ever hearing 40 HR potential out of him, I remember being really excited about the trade. The team didn't give up much to get Lee, and then added a top 10 guy.

Now, Smoak hasn't been what everyone projected him to be, but he has been the starting 1st baseman for the last 3 years while the team would have only gotten another 10-15 starts from Lee.

Fans tend to forget at times that it wasn't a Lee straight up for Smoak deal. Beavan, despite his issues this season, was a solid performer in the #5 spot of the rotation. Lueke and Lawson are both gone, though no real production at the MLB level yet from either of those two.

I felt the worst part of the trade was throwing Mark Lowe into the deal.

2. Drafted Dustin Ackley #2 overall in 2009 draft

-I dont want to harp to much in a sense that nobody else in the 1st round is an all star other than mike trout and i guess Aaron crow

when we drafted him he was suppose to be a hitting machine that he hit .400 his freshman season at UNC but in 1000 AB's in the major he hit .239

At the time, this was the best possible pick. I never liked moving him to 2B, but he was supposed to be the best option at #2, with Strasburg going #1.

3. Traded Michael Pineda to the yankees for jesus montero

- suppose to have a bat like miguel cabrera, dont need to get into the numbers other than we all know he is demoted to AAA

I hated this trade when it happened, but if we're gonna look back with 20/20 goggles, this is the best move of the bunch. Sure Montero hasn't lived up to the hype, but at least he's played. To date, Pineda hasn't even pitched an inning at any level.

Im going to have to disagree, dont get me wrong there are players that need those ABs but if montero,ackley,or smoak had edgars 1990 season or griffeys rookie season then things would be going a lot better for us

Ok, comparing anyone to HoFers (or at least boarderline HoFers) and the best players in team history is a little overkill. No one expected Smoak or Ackley to be Griffey or Edgar. As to the point (First 1500 compared to prime)

Edgar - (BA 2B-3B-HR RBI-R OBP-SLG)
1987-1991 (1494 PA) .298 76-5-27 195-131 .389-.427
1992-2001 (5621 PA) .325 367-10-231 910-865 .435-.558

Griffey -
1989-1990 (1172 PA) .284 51-7-38 141-152 .350-.454
1991-1999 (5516 PA) .302 269-23-360 1011-911 .386-.594

Even though both started out much more successful than Smoak or Ackley, both Griffey and Edgar improved their offensive output significantly after their first 1000-1500 PA (I didn't want to go through every game log until I got to 1500, so just went with full seasons).

I don't mind Z being on the hot seat, but it's more about the team not improving enough over his tenure, not because of individual moves. Even if the moves turned out exactly how people hoped they would at the time, if wins don't follow then his job should be in jeopardy.

 

[blade]

This is Jack's last year. I say this because this team has no chance of finishing above .500 and I think it has to in order for Jack to keep his job. Even if the offense improves to, say, league average, it still won't be enough to compensate for the rotation. 60% of the rotation is comprised of guys who have no business being in a major league uniform.

And, I don't see how they can fix the rotation in time to avoid the inevitable July fire sale.
* Hultzen is still DLed, and he'll need a few starts at AAA after he comes off the DL, so he won't be ready before July, at the earliest.
*I don't know what the hell is going on with Rameriz and the status of his injury. I figured he would be the #3 starter this year.
* Paxson has a 5.00 ERA at AAA. He won't help this year.
* Walker isn't coming. They still have kid gloves on him.
* Beavan could probably help if he was given a chance and afforded the same patience they are offering Maurer. But, apparently he has pissed someone off.

So, watch for the fire sale. If and when it begins, that will be your indicator that Jack Z is gone.

 

[seattlefan75]

But bottom line is WHAT HAS JACK DONE FOR THE MARINERS SENSE TAKING OVER? other then signing felix hernandez to a long term deal. he hasnt signed/drafted/traded for anyone that is an all star on this team and is a solid #2 best player behind felix hernandez

 

[SeattleCoug]

Jack has missed on way more then he was missed and its unfortunate. The fact that he went on the radio and said new GM's need 7 years to turn around a franchise is a joke. If the GM of Yankees/Red Sox/ Phillies etc. said that, the dude would not make it to his car.
Plus if the system is so much better of then it was 5 years why do we have no one ready to pitch at the major league level. Why is it the major league rotation has to be fixed with Band-aids like Saunders and Harang who are awful.


Bottom line is he needs to be graded on the "core players" which we have discussed, Ackley, Smoak, Montero, Seagar.

Unfortunately Z is a scape of the guys above him and Wedge will be Z's scape goat.

Until the guys above Z admit they are horrible at what they do and walk away the same stuff will continue to happen and thats a fact. This upper managment group will never see success on the field in Seattle, I can almost guarantee it.

 

[wazzu31]

Ok so assuming (which is very likely) that this team finishes in 3rd place (which is last place if the astros werent in the division) would Jack Z's GM job be on the hot seat or even fired at that? Sense taking over the mariners what has he done for us? Im keeping track of the key moves he has made sense taking the GM job.

1. Traded Cliff Lee to the Rangers for Justin Smoak

-was a top 10 prospect in the league with the rangers was suppose to be a power hitting that can hit around 40 homers and be an RBI #4 in the lineup type player.

in 1400 ABs his BA is .226 with his highest home run count being 19 back in 2012


2. Drafted Dustin Ackley #2 overall in 2009 draft

-I dont want to harp to much in a sense that nobody else in the 1st round is an all star other than mike trout and i guess Aaron crow

when we drafted him he was suppose to be a hitting machine that he hit .400 his freshman season at UNC but in 1000 AB's in the major he hit .239



so I dont know if you guys still want to wait for Danny Hultzen to make his debut but who else thinks that Jack should be on the hot seat? because the way I look at it other than signing felix hernandez to that huge deal he hasnt done anything for us

1. Correct me if I'm wrong but hadn't Smoak been sent down that season for Chris Davis? Not a huge red flag, but kind of one when you have a verbal deal with another team.

2. Does suck for him, but it seems to be a fail. Regardless of what others thought, if a guy who is drafted to be a superstar does not pan out then the blame still goes on the GM.

3. This was a trade I did not understand, wasn't against it but did not understand. Cliff Lee was not part of the future and could've got more from the Yankees along with Montero yet they chose Smoak. Hate to play devil's advocate but with how hyped Montero was he should've been on the "untouchable list" yet Cashman was quickly ready to trade him for a rent a player and a 2nd year pitcher who dropped off in the second half.

I disliked the Hultzen pick for many reasons, mostly because the team needs offense not pitching. They had Felix, Paxton and Walker as core guys of the future at the time. Felix as an ace and 2 other's with supposed ace stuff. The only moves I have seen him hit on was Seagar, Morse and Morales. That is 3 out of 20 ish?

Not to mention a trade I still do not understand in the Doug Fister trade. I still haven't heard him explain that deal that even a person who has never watch baseball could say oh I see his logic. Jack was the type of GM they needed after Gillick but Howard and Chuck are not baseball guys and did not realize Gillick had killed the farm system and they needed to rebuild it while the big club was at least viable to have fans show up.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I don't believe that Ackley, Montero and Smoak's failures are all on Jack Z, I view it more as really bad luck due to the fact that these were all guys who were universally praised as future All-Star caliber players.

That being said, you can make the case that Jack Z was not a bad GM.

But it only makes sense to fire him. I know I completely contradict myself by saying that his failures are due to bad luck and payroll constrictions but the fact of the matter is that he has not produced a playoff caliber team. Part of me feels like I can't see anyone else doing much better than what Jack Z did, but the logical part of me looks at where the Mariners have placed in the standings during his tenure and realize that he has not lived up to expectations.

I really do believe there is a strong case to be made that the team's failures are not Z's fault, but bad luck or not the losses speak for themselves. I wouldn't be upset if the Mariners gave him another year. I would probably be briefly upset if they fired him, because I don't entire believe it is his fault the team has struggled so badly, but I would completely understand the Mariners rational behind it.

 

[unlvmariners]

I don't believe that Ackley, Montero and Smoak's failures are all on Jack Z, I view it more as really bad luck due to the fact that these were all guys who were universally praised as future All-Star caliber players.

That being said, you can make the case that Jack Z was not a bad GM.

But it only makes sense to fire him. I know I completely contradict myself by saying that his failures are due to bad luck and payroll constrictions but the fact of the matter is that he has not produced a playoff caliber team. Part of me feels like I can't see anyone else doing much better than what Jack Z did, but the logical part of me looks at where the Mariners have placed in the standings during his tenure and realize that he has not lived up to expectations.

I really do believe there is a strong case to be made that the team's failures are not Z's fault, but bad luck or not the losses speak for themselves. I wouldn't be upset if the Mariners gave him another year. I would probably be briefly upset if they fired him, because I don't entire believe it is his fault the team has struggled so badly, but I would completely understand the Mariners rational behind it.

I agree.

These players were regarded as very good players of the future at the time. I think Jack Z has built the Mariner organization (not necessarily the current major league team) to succeed. It appears there will be a bright future for the organization beyond the current players on the major league roster. The problem Jack Z is having is making the major league roster into a winning team.

The Mariners cannot seem to catch a break. We suck at offense so Jack Z brings in guys that can hit homeruns. We are in the top 10 in homers so far this season yet our avg. is near the bottom and our 3-5 starting pitchers suck. Our pitching was supposed to be a strong point, now its not (besides felix and kuma).