Current State of Reds and Beyond

[JohnU]

Without reattaching my own ideas to this post, it maybe is useful to define "competitive" in pro sports.
The obvious definition is what happens on the field. In other aspects, it's what's happening in the bookkeeping department. So while I assume the Reds compete reasonably well with overall income, based on TV contracts, ad revenues, attendance ... value of lease, etc ... it brings me to this: The boom-bust part of sports is fairly typical, with the possible exception of the New England Patriots. Then again, maybe the Reds do NOT compete well in other areas. We only know what payroll is. It doesn't tell us that much.

But winning a W.S. one year, dropping to 3rd place the next ... that's not really a sin. The objective is to be a contender for something up to the last week or so of the season ... and to be in the conversation in February about whether the team is relevant.

It's been a VERY VERY VERY long time since I realized in the third week of May that the best I could hope for was taking 2 out of 3 from the Phillies.

 

[chico ruiz]

so, to me, baseball is different than all other professional sports. the number of regular season games is comparatively amazing. yep 'amazing' is the word. teams will slump. teams will surge. if they are 6-7-8 games out after 120 games, they still have 42 games to get hot. in the nfl, if a team loses 4 of 5 in september, that team is usually thinking about next year. no time to make up the ground. baseball provides ample opportunity to stay in contention. imo, competitiveness, in mlb, is being within striking distance of a playoff spot mid - august. as is always the case, year after year, pitching and defense win the day in those latter months of the season. sure, there have been offensive juggernauts that bludgeoned the opposition to death, but certainly in the last few decades it's p & d that's kept teams competitive into august, and was the difference maker in september. i'll throw in speed too. really strong arguments can be made that's what finally put the reds over the top in '75.' kc's outfield defense and shutdown '3' did it for them. i realize bruce bochy is a bit of a savant, but 3 world championships later and you have to stand back in awe of the pitcher / hitter match-ups he called for. would the pirates be this good without their outfield defense? they essentially have 3 center fielders out there. minor leagues / development. they can get to the gaps like few other teams i've ever seen. defense - the aspect of the game rarely spoken of. i personally saw marte win games v. the reds last year with last out catches that few other outfielders could have dreamed of getting to. these guys are keeping sure doubles -for most other teams- to singles for their pitcher. has to make a difference over 162 games.

honestly, i don't know if any of these examples even make contextual 'draft' sense. i think i'm saying, draft pitchers & college outfielders. put a premium on instruction in arizona -like the very life of the franchise depended on it- and make all the drafted outfielders play centerfield in the minors. the way smaller market teams have been doing it is by relentlessly putting a premium on pitching, defense, and speed. absolutely no revelation there. take that for what it's worth from a guy who needs a entire pot of coffee every freegin morning to function.


i just watch the game and notice the little things that produce more wins than loses. there are so many amazing things about the 'game,' that influence the outcome. i think i notice trends quicker because the home run doesn't excite me. sure a walk off is nice, but its the cat & mouse in the first eight innings that does it for me. there are then again, some things you can't see coming. like, what the hell has gotten into ichiro? what the hell has happened to votto? i'd like to read you guys thoughts on that one. how can a 42 year old starting pitcher throw almost exclusively one pitch with such confidence and success? 2-seamers with ungodly movement. in / out - up / down. some of his pitches look like they start 2-3 feet off the plate. i don't know. at least i'm surprised every time i go to the yard.

 

[JohnU]

The issue with loading a draft for pitchers and college outfielders is that there are 30 teams all doing the same thing. There are rarely 30 top-level pitchers in any given decade, let alone over a time frame of several years. College level outfielders may be more common but there is no bottomless pit.

The problem with all that is these players and their agents know this and a team ends up spending too much on a guy who comes early in the draft -- but really isn't a core top-level prospect. The Reds and a lot of teams in past years would give top draft pick money to their top draft pick but he was misidentified and was in truth only maybe a 7th round guy.

If you can identify one or two franchise-type players in a draft, that probably is pretty good. If you sign both of them, even better. But the issue comes back to recognition of the draft choice. At the age of 17, is Mike Trout better than Drew Stubbs? Variables apply. Many variables.

Even in the minors, the differences may not be clear. The player could change his style along the way and ... pfffft ... all bets are off.

 

[JohnU]

So the Reds bring up Layne Somsen, send him back, bring him up, send him back, put him on waivers and the Yankees claimed his contract. What the hell?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

They had to drop someone off the 40 man to make room for Daniel Wright and I guess Somsen was the guy they valued the least. Price obviously didn't think much of the guy.... the first time he was called up he didn't even use him.

At this point I'm not sure who is still on the 25 man, much less the 40 man. I just wait to see who comes running out the bullpen gate and hope I recognize the name.

 

[JohnU]

Clearly the Yankees saw a cheap value.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds traded 23 year old P Franderlin Romero to Baltimore for future considerations.

I'm assuming that means the Reds acquired at least a portion of the Orioles International Signing Pool money. Pool money is tradable, unlike draft picks.

For every dollar they acquired from Baltimore the Reds saved a dollar and possible future signing penalties. It's less about saving and more about getting more for your money.

 

[JohnU]

I so wanted to see a guy named Franderlin pitching in Cincy.

 

[eburg5000]

I think they are a few more, ,(and that is being overly conservative) they could take off the 40 man roster.

Who knows, Somsen might have a chance to play in the world series now

 

[chico ruiz]

have the reds simply experienced bad luck with scouting, acquisition, and development ? is the mlb draft just a big game of craps? h'n'r has mentioned several times how shallow the 40-man roster is in terms of depth. bad luck i suppose. yeah, that's it. the chips didn't fall in the reds favor. the reds should do away with the entire departments. no need to have them at all. it's a waste of money (labor costs, time, etc). too much effort has been put into these endeavors to reconcile the ostensible on-field and ledger results. marge had it right, by god. i don't understand what those guys do anyway. the game hasn't changed at all. it's those gall darn metrics geeks and analytics nerds that have screwed it up. pencil pushing, pen protector wearing, number crunching, 4 eyed, low protein gruel eating, cubicle living, computer loving, cyborg-like so and so's. why hates em. i don't know why ize hates em, but i hates em. i wisht i coult get a holt of one of ems. they don't know their ass from their elbuh when it comes to bass-ball. nah-sir. their always thinnin and a cypherin. it just aint uh natural. eitherst a feller can play ball or he a caint. hell, i can-uh see that. i don't need mister i-b-m over thar. and what's all this gibber-gabber about dee-vel-ip-munt? why hell, i dee-vel-ipt just fine.

 

[JohnU]

Clever

 

[eburg5000]

Chico, I'm glad you agree, git rid of em all

 

[Redsfan1507]

Reds are weak, but they aren't even playing their best 25...it's impossible to, actually...I don't just mean injured like Bailey and Mesoraco, or even DNP choices like Reed or Peraza....but there have to be 3-4 guys right now in AA that could hit better than .205 that could play 1b....but of course, logic, and economics, say Votto will come around....and they can't ruin options by sending a kid up and down three times a year...uh, ok, they do that anyway, but the rumor is there are fans that actually show up in a seat to see Votto perform checkswings on grooveballs and stomp on paper airplanes in losses.

The Reds get the #2 overall pick this year, and a few early rounders. Check back in 4 years for results. If the Reds actually take a real bonus baby and sign him for going value, by the time he gets to MLB, if he ever does, they have about as much invested in him as a single season of the Aroldis Chapman salary they couldn't afford, and even if he's a HOF, they need 24 other miracles to win the WS lottery.... Those millions sure beat 4 years working part time at Foot Locker while studying for a Phys Ed degree from Clusterfluck U, for the draftee, but the risk assessment is all on the Reds....and even if he is the next Joey Votto, and you sign him forever...he can still hit .205 and collect his $180M balance.

The draft isn't science. Never will be. The payroll planning could use a few more metrics students, though.

 

[eburg5000]

Good to see you back 1507. I always enjoyed your post. Plus I love really good wit mixed with sarcasm. I do mean that in a good way

 

[JohnU]

I think we can pound this peg into the hole until we convince ourselves we are skilled craftsmen.
Here is what we know about this team.

Votto, hitting .205, is also the team's leading OBP guy. Huh?
Phillips has lost a step but he's still as good as any other infielder I've ever seen.
Cozart is not a .300 hitter but plays one on TV. He also admits that his knee still bothers him.
ES plays 3B like EE did, and has become a disaster at the plate. He is pulling off every pitch. He has the bleachers in his eyes.
The infield reserves are Jordan Pacheco, Ivan Jesus II and I forget who else.
Adam Duvall is probably the team's All-Star rep.
Billy Hamilton is often hurt, can't steal first base and appears to be telling everyone he is working on improving his bunting skills.
Jay Bruce is going to be traded.
Tucker Barnhart is a good catcher, not a great hitter.
Ramon Cabrera is one of 139 guys in baseball named Cabrera.
The outfield reserves are Jordan Pacheco, Ivan Jesus II and I forget who else.

Unfortunately the pitching.
Ohlendorf is our best guy, except for Strailly, who used to be with Houston with San Diego with the Reds and is now the staff ace.

Whatever this completely inert, disabled pitching staff was supposed to do won't happen because the rehab will take until the first of August.

The dugout crew, strapped and confused, is confused and inert.


But we sent Layne Somsen into free agency hell and did a snuggle-fest to keep Jimbo Jumbo Diaz on the 40-man, just in case ......

But I am sure that a lot of analytics among the Ivy League data mining experts could fix all that if only we had a GM who wasn't so damned old-school.

 

[eburg5000]

Why are they not bringing these young pitchers. Stephenson, Reed, and Garret. I know they don't want to start their time clock, And Maybe they are not ready. Well to the last excuse who the hell is ready. So that takes bake to the time clock. You have to bring them up sometimes, and if you are waiting for this team to be competitive they may be in their late 60's before that happens. Quit cheating the fans

 

[eburg5000]

Why are they not bringing these young pitchers. Stephenson, Reed, and Garret.

I know they don't want to start their time clock, And Maybe they are not ready. Well to the last excuse who the hell is ready. So that takes bake to the time clock.

You have to bring them up sometimes, and if you are waiting for this team to be competitive they may be in their late 60's before that happens.

Quit cheating the fans, and put a quality product on the field. or the best you can. Not Hoover, Hayes, Somson, Simpson, and the rest of those minor league pitchers that are average at best in the minors

 

[eburg5000]

Why are they not bringing these young pitchers. Stephenson, Reed, and Garret.

I know they don't want to start their time clock, And Maybe they are not ready. Well to the last excuse who the hell is ready. So that takes bake to the time clock.

You have to bring them up sometimes, and if you are waiting for this team to be competitive they may be in their late 60's before that happens.

Quit cheating the fans, and put a quality product on the field. or the best you can. Not Hoover, Hayes, Somsen, Simpson, and the rest of those minor league pitchers that are average at best in the minors

 

[eburg5000]

Why are they not bringing these young pitchers. Stephenson, Reed, and Garret.

I know they don't want to start their time clock, And Maybe they are not ready. Well to the last excuse who the hell is ready. So that takes bake to the time clock.

You have to bring them up sometimes, and if you are waiting for this team to be competitive they may be in their late 60's before that happens.

Quit cheating the fans, and put a quality product on the field. or the best you can. Not Hoover, Hayes, Somsen, Simpson, and the rest of those minor league pitchers that are average at best in the minors.

 

[JohnU]

Lorenzen headed for the bullpen, which is no surprise. I think most of us saw him as a potential closer long-term. To this point, I think developing a closer would be fairly predictable for this dugout staff. The last thing this outfit needs is a closer.

Meanwhile, the occasional good start is being lauded as tantamount to landing a spaceship on an asteroid.