All things offseason

[Niner Outlaw]

Some comp pick reports are coming in.

PFT and others reporting that the 49ers are expected to get a third-round pick, a fifth-round pick and two sixth-round picks. Not bad at all.

That would mean the Niners have the following picks in the 2024 draft:
1 (own)
2 (own)
3 (own)
3 (comp)
4 (own)
4 (Dallas)
5 (comp)
6 (comp)
6 (comp)
7 (own)
7 (Denver)

I've seen a few reports that say one of the 6th rd comps could be a 5th rd comp. Either way, 11 picks is way too much for this team, so I would expect us to trade up some or trade for picks in next year's draft.

 

[deep9er]

Seems like our biggest needs are very similar to last year's. OT, CB, WR, IOL, TE, DT, S, etc. The good news is that the draft will be rich in OTs this year. We could land a good one at the end of rd 1.

Latu will be back off of IR next season, but he was a bad reach and didn't play/practice well last year anyway. We gotta get a decent 2nd TE.

With Kinlaw almost certainly leaving in FA (and he's been average), we'll need more help in the middle and with what we're paying Hargrave, it'll have to be cheap, so it's a draftee.

I'm ok with bringing back Gregory, but definitely not Young. I think Young blows his run responsibilities too often. I think Gregory has been the better player for us.

Good point--Gonna be really nice to get Hufanga back. I wonder if we're gonna bring Gipson back?

To me Jaiyir Brown has shown enough to take the starting spot from Gibson. Brown still has some game reps (experience) to gain, but he's shown enough. I'm not against Tayshaun Gibson at all, its a cap reason here.

So far Brown has not shown to be a good tackler, but he does have good recognition and can move forward FAST.

 

[deep9er]

The scans came back negative (good) on his shoulder. So, he didn't break anything. According to Shanny it's 50/50 right now, but we'll know a lot more on Wednesday (practice day).

This is another tough injury call, I'd rather be careful in using Deebo if not 100%. Even if he claims to be 100%, wouldn't give him too many reps this game. He'd still be a good decoy because the Lions have to respect him.

BTW - Deebo has 'weak' arms and is why DB's are always trying to hold him up and strip the ball. Its a gamble for them to do this since Deebo can break and continue running, but if they can get the ball out.................

 

[deep9er]

Some comp pick reports are coming in.

PFT and others reporting that the 49ers are expected to get a third-round pick, a fifth-round pick and two sixth-round picks. Not bad at all.

That would mean the Niners have the following picks in the 2024 draft:
1 (own)
2 (own)
3 (own)
3 (comp)
4 (own)
4 (Dallas)
5 (comp)
6 (comp)
6 (comp)
7 (own)
7 (Denver)

I've seen a few reports that say one of the 6th rd comps could be a 5th rd comp. Either way, 11 picks is way too much for this team, so I would expect us to trade up some or trade for picks in next year's draft.

Thanks for posting this, I was too lazy at the time.

Agree, doubt we use every one of these 11 picks. Trading up a little in any round ok for me and a "little" is similar to the Jaiyir Brown trade. Trading a 3rd, 4th, or 5th into 2025 is ok too.

Too early to get into the draft but for now want to say in the big picture, draft on the BPA side. For me its way over on the BPA side but this doesn't work for message boards. We fans can only go by Need.

Anyway, the goal of the draft is to add the maximum talent we can, not fill "holes" for next season.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

 

[Yosemite Sam]

Okay, new priority for the upcoming 2024 draft. LINEBACKER! The Greenlaw Achilles injury is a serious setback for the first few months of the 2024 season. I don't believe Burks or Flannigan-Fowles is the dynamic answer.

Here is the weird thing about recent 49ers drafts and player development: many look good on paper but they are seldom given any regular season snaps so we have no clue about who will step up:

Is 2021 OL Jaylon Moore a 2024 contributor?

What do we know with confidence about 2022 picks Drake Jackson, Danny Gray, Samuel Womack, Nick Zakelj, Kalia Davis?

2023 gives us TEs Cameron Latu Brayden Willis, LBs Dee Winters and Jalen Graham, Darrell Luter and Robert Beal.

And then there is all the preseason love showered on Fisher (gone), Poe, Manning, Wagge, Martin, Qwuantrezz (gone),,,

Does anyone know what we have? Maybe they don't need a LB because Winters or Graham are capable of stepping into the Greenlaw void.

 

[Yosemite Sam]

My early draft crush is Oregon C Jackson Powers-Johnson with pick R1.31.

In the late second round, best CB or OT available.

Two third round picks - best CB or OT or LB available. The only reason you might divert from this is if a stud DL drops.

No need to draft WR, RB, TE, QB or S in first two days.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Okay, new priority for the upcoming 2024 draft. LINEBACKER! The Greenlaw Achilles injury is a serious setback for the first few months of the 2024 season. I don't believe Burks or Flannigan-Fowles is the dynamic answer.

Here is the weird thing about recent 49ers drafts and player development: many look good on paper but they are seldom given any regular season snaps so we have no clue about who will step up:

Is 2021 OL Jaylon Moore a 2024 contributor?

What do we know with confidence about 2022 picks Drake Jackson, Danny Gray, Samuel Womack, Nick Zakelj, Kalia Davis?

2023 gives us TEs Cameron Latu Brayden Willis, LBs Dee Winters and Jalen Graham, Darrell Luter and Robert Beal.

And then there is all the preseason love showered on Fisher (gone), Poe, Manning, Wagge, Martin, Qwuantrezz (gone),,,

Does anyone know what we have? Maybe they don't need a LB because Winters or Graham are capable of stepping into the Greenlaw void.

I think we might ride with our young LBs--Winters and Graham. As rookies, both looked good in offseason/preseason. Hell, Graham was good enough in preseason that he made the team as a 7th rounder on a team that didn't really need LBs.

Imo, we must draft an OT. This year's draft is very deep at OT and this is the year to grab a guy who can play RT and eventually shift over to LT. It's a deep draft at the OT spot and we're not desperately in need, so the OT can be the swing tackle for a year or so, who knows?

I think the coaches have soured on Jackson. This year, 2024 season, will be his make or break year. Considering our lack of depth at the position, I'm surprised that we didn't see more of Womack and Davis this past season.

I think this is the year that Manning might get a chance and make something of himself at OG. Not a starter (unlikely), but a more steady backup.

I think Latu will be a bust (he was a crazy reach in the first place) and so far, Willis lacks the blocking strength necessary to play TE/FB. He can catch though. Beal looks the part, but can he play DE since we're gonna have a serious need at Edge?

 

[Yosemite Sam]

All Things Offseason - Is the Brandin Aiyuk family IG real with their desires to leave 49ers? His brother wrote "BA to Vegas"...be careful what you wish for. More likely this is the Deebo-negotiation technique. Lynch would need to demand a AJ Brown-like ransom because Aiyuk is an All Pro.

 

[Stlducks]

Aiyuk needs to come back. Same with Jennings.

I am seeing big names already linked with the DC position. Kyle must have someone in his mind already to make the decision so soon.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Aiyuk needs to come back. Same with Jennings.

BA is still under contract for one more year (2024 season). However, without an extension, it's likely that he sits out the offseason program and maybe parts of TC.

IF we lose BA, Jennings would be in great position for more action at WR. Most of us wonder why he doens't get more catches or plays called for him. HE's already a clutch player.

 

[Stlducks]

BA is still under contract for one more year (2024 season). However, without an extension, it's likely that he sits out the offseason program and maybe parts of TC.

IF we lose BA, Jennings would be in great position for more action at WR. Most of us wonder why he doens't get more catches or plays called for him. HE's already a clutch player.

That is true. Jennings was the go to at the end of the SB too. Purdy obviously has a lot of trust in him.

 

[Yosemite Sam]

This the NFL in the salary cap era - (1) you cannot have all the things you want, and (2) the draft is the only way to restock premium position like LT, EDGE and QB.

My thoughts (in no particular order) as we start to evaluate the 49ers offseason ahead:

1. Greenlaw is out until Thanksgiving, and there is no assurance he will be the same, or that he doesn't strain some other part of his legs compensating for his rehabbed Achilles. Lynch as to be looking at Dee Winters, an affordable free agent or the draft. I don't think Burks or Flannigan-Fowles are an adequate replacement for Greenlaw. I would draft a linebacker in 3rd or 4th round who might push Winters. Lynch must identify a dynamic type similar to Azeez Al-Shaair.

2. Figure out where you want to play Deomodore Lenior, CB2 or NCB, then draft a corner to play the other corner spot. Ambry Thomas is not that guy. Womack is a backup NCB, and Luter should not be handed anything. Make Luter compete with Lenior outside and draft a Jimmie Ward type; or give Lenior the NCB position and draft someone on Day 2 to compete with Luter.

3. The EDGE position opposite Nick Bosa is not set. Drake Jackson is not that guy. I doubt Robert Beal is that guy (he seems like a nice backup). Ferrell, Young and Gregory are all FA's. Sign one of these guys to a 1-year, "prove-it" deal AND draft a first or second day talent. I currently have my eyes on quicker (smaller) Chop Robinson and Chris Braswell and stronger (larger) Bralen Trice and Darius Robinson with the pick at #31.

4. Since I mentioned the #31 pick in the previous thought, that EDGE is not my draft priority in 2024. My draft priority is finding an offensive tackle that can upgrade over McKivitz while being groomed to replace Trent Williams in 2 seasons. But I don't expect that player to be there at #31, which is why I would consider an EDGE at the END of Round One. The only way we can get an adequate shot at Trent's successor in the next two seasons is if we replicate the 2020 draft, when John Lynch traded DeForest Buckner and had an opportunity to draft Tristan Wirfs. Unfortunately, Lynch traded back a pick and tried to replace Buckner with Javon Kinlaw. But, this is 2024, so how do we recreate that draft scenario? It means trading a valuable asset...an All Pro level player that we might not well afford, like say Deebo or Aiyuk. I know this will blow a few minds but remember: "you cannot have all the things you want"

Brandon Aiyuk and his family seemed quick to express their displeasure after the Super Bowl loss. It may be that his agent has told him the 49ers cannot afford both Deebo and Aiyuk beyond 2024, and the structure of Deebo's contract would create a dead money crater that prevents the team from trading Deebo, so the only logical move is a trade of Brandon. If an Aiyuk trade is brewing, it has to be along the AJ Brown to Philadelphia terms. That would put the 49ers closer to drafting mid-first round where a Tristan Wirfs type OT might be available.

If Lynch doesn't pursue this path, and no OT is drafted earlier in the first round, I think the 49ers would be wise the draft the Best OL Available (BOA) at #31. At the moment, that would be Jackson Powers-Johnson, who could start at RG and be groomed to take over the center position from Jake Brendel. Without the 2024 OT pick, Kyle will have to put together a package of picks in 2025 for Trent's heir apparent.

I have my fingers crossed that Luter and Winters emerge as starters. Hufanga paired with Ji'Ayir Brown will be cool to watch.

 

[Yosemite Sam]

Kyle and John have two drafts to identify, draft and develop a LT. If they don't attempt or succeed this year, then they have virtually no window for error in the 2025 draft.

Local talk radio in the Bay Area (KNBR) is ruminating about offseason decision of the Walsh Dynasty years. Specifically, they are talking about the cold, calculating decision making that often traded or cut a player a year early. I mean hey, they traded Joe Montana while Jerry Rice, Ronnie Lott, Roger Craig, etc., all played elsewhere, so lets be clear headed and not emotional about the current roster. B/R has some intriguing trade ideas relating to Brandon Aiyuk (Six Potential Aiyuk Trade Ideas).

What shocking changes can you envision?

Program Note: if you are still grieving go spend time with family or nature. But if you are open to better understanding why the offense was stymied in the Super Bowl, watch Kyle Posey's review of every offensive snap on YouTube (Kyle Posey - Why Offense Failed to Put Kansas City Away). Hint: there is a lot of blame to go around. Inexperienced QB, exceptional DC, confused OL, talented DT and CBs, but a good dose on Kyle Shanahan's coaching decisions. I can forgive the young and less experienced. I struggle more with mistakes by those who have a wealth of knowledge and experience. And then some of it is just a talent discrepancy (which was manifested do to oversights in roster construction).

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Kyle and John have two drafts to identify, draft and develop a LT. If they don't attempt or succeed this year, then they have virtually no window for error in the 2025 draft.

Local talk radio in the Bay Area (KNBR) is ruminating about offseason decision of the Walsh Dynasty years. Specifically, they are talking about the cold, calculating decision making that often traded or cut a player a year early. I mean hey, they traded Joe Montana while Jerry Rice, Ronnie Lott, Roger Craig, etc., all played elsewhere, so lets be clear headed and not emotional about the current roster. B/R has some intriguing trade ideas relating to Brandon Aiyuk (Six Potential Aiyuk Trade Ideas).

What shocking changes can you envision?

Program Note: if you are still grieving go spend time with family or nature. But if you are open to better understanding why the offense was stymied in the Super Bowl, watch Kyle Posey's review of every offensive snap on YouTube (Kyle Posey - Why Offense Failed to Put Kansas City Away). Hint: there is a lot of blame to go around. Inexperienced QB, exceptional DC, confused OL, talented DT and CBs, but a good dose on Kyle Shanahan's coaching decisions. I can forgive the young and less experienced. I struggle more with mistakes by those who have a wealth of knowledge and experience. And then some of it is just a talent discrepancy (which was manifested do to oversights in roster construction).

This is the THE year to get an OT. The draft is really deep at the spot this time and the quality is good all the way into the late first, early second round. I could see us moving up to nab a falling OT that we have highly rated. Honestly, the more teams that draft QBs, the better it is for the Niners, b/c that means more OTs will fall.

Not sure what to do on BA. I'm thinking he will want a fortune that we can't afford--can't afford to keep Kittle, Deebo, and Aiyuk all while paying them market level deals. So, I'm thinking BA will ride out this season on the last year of his contract--naturally, he'll hold out of the offseason program and maybe part of TC too. I could see us trading Aiyuk, but it would really depend on the deal we get in return. I just don't see another team offering up a lot for him.

 

[Yosemite Sam]

I have a feeling we can ignore all of the defensive coordinators who are associate with the 3-4 defense. Kyle is committed to the principles of Pete Carroll's defense, including the 4 man line. This means the Brandon Staley rumors are wrong (likely started by his agent). Look at the disciples of Carroll, including LB coaches from Seattle, NYJ and the Texans. I do NOT expect Carroll, himself, to be on Kyle's staff. Does anyone recall how Ken Norton, Jr. was as a coordinator in Oakland and Seattle?

 

[Niner Outlaw]

I have a feeling we can ignore all of the defensive coordinators who are associate with the 3-4 defense. Kyle is committed to the principles of Pete Carroll's defense, including the 4 man line. This means the Brandon Staley rumors are wrong (likely started by his agent). Look at the disciples of Carroll, including LB coaches from Seattle, NYJ and the Texans. I do NOT expect Carroll, himself, to be on Kyle's staff. Does anyone recall how Ken Norton, Jr. was as a coordinator in Oakland and Seattle?

I'll respond in the Wilks thread.

 

[Yosemite Sam]

So, I'm thinking BA will ride out this season on the last year of his contract--naturally, he'll hold out of the offseason program and maybe part of TC too. I could see us trading Aiyuk, but it would really depend on the deal we get in return. I just don't see another team offering up a lot for him.

I thought the trade to Jacksonville made a lot of sense. They are wasting prime Trevor Lawrence years. He needs a number one.

The other destination that intrigued me is the Texans. They were exceptional this year, but they still have a HUGE(!) hill to climb to get to the AFC mountain top. The organization knows him well. And they have a ton of cap space.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

I thought the trade to Jacksonville made a lot of sense. They are wasting prime Trevor Lawrence years. He needs a number one.

The other destination that intrigued me is the Texans. They were exceptional this year, but they still have a HUGE(!) hill to climb to get to the AFC mountain top. The organization knows him well. And they have a ton of cap space.

I agree on both Jags and Texans. Both good landing spots and we could get some decent compensation for him.

No way in hell I'd move him to the Cards or Chiefs. We just aren't going to trade him in the division and I think the FO will have a sour taste in its mouth about KC.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

The jets are going to cut OG Laken Tomlinson. He joined the jets after leaving the Niners. Any chance we'd be able to bring him back to play RG? Maybe he misses winning enough to take less money in free agency?