.5ppr 12 team snake draft, sitting in the drivers' seat

[DALLAScornhusker]

Taking RB #1. Trying to set up the rest of my draft with what comes back to me at #24/25. We count QBs points higher (5td/20yd), makes them stand out a bit more than usual. Most years there are a minimum of 5 taken in the first two rounds. I usually wait on QBs, but I think there is a chance this year that I could see value in taking one at this spot. The only one I'd consider here is Brees.

My main focus is getting two of the top 10 WRs though. Most likely to be here are Jeffrey, Hilton & Evans. Slim chance Cobb is here, even slimmer AJ Green is there. It all depends on how many QBs get pushed vs WRs. I want WRs that get TDs - so AJ, Cobb, Jeffrey and Evans are the four I'm looking at. The tipping point is where you would put Brees into that mix - and I'm assuming his stats from last year carry over which would put him in line with this draft slot.

I'm thinking I'd take AJ and Cobb if there, if only one, then I'd take Brees over Jeffrey and Evans. Thoughts?

 

[TKOSpikes]

Obviously it depends on which QB are gone and how many, but I would not take Brees there.

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

The top 12 QBs last year beat the best non-QB (A.Brown). Rodgers, Luck, Manning will get taken before Brees. Slim chance someone likes Wilson. Brees should be either 4th or 5th QB taken. I've got him as around 3 points per week better than the 12th QB, 2 better than 8th QB. In all likelihood I won't see a 2 point split between the WR I could take (Jeffery/Hilton) to the WR I can take at #48-49 (Tate/K.Allen). But I would see a 2 point split between this pick and the QB that I'll likely get in round 7/8/9.

 

[TREFF]

I would not take Brees there this year either. .no Graham=Less TD's..regardless of whether you believe they'll run more this year or not.

Would rather wait until rounds 4/5, (or even later), get your 2 WR's, and take a Romo, Big Ben, Rivers, Ryan..ect, later on

 

[TKOSpikes]

The top 12 QBs last year beat the best non-QB (A.Brown). Rodgers, Luck, Manning will get taken before Brees. Slim chance someone likes Wilson. Brees should be either 4th or 5th QB taken. I've got him as around 3 points per week better than the 12th QB, 2 better than 8th QB. In all likelihood I won't see a 2 point split between the WR I could take (Jeffery/Hilton) to the WR I can take at #48-49 (Tate/K.Allen). But I would see a 2 point split between this pick and the QB that I'll likely get in round 7/8/9.

Well I guess it depends on your projections then.

For me, Brees is looking at what, 4500, 30/14?

The difference in getting two top 13ish WR, and maybe an Eli with what, 4200, 33/16?; is better than taking Brees and having a WR2 in the crapshoot that is 4th/5th round guys... much of whom can be outplayed by later round picks.

 

[eaglesnut]

Get yourself two stud WRs and grab your QB later. You are sitting at the turn. You'll be able to get your two favorite QBs at some point in the draft when it's actually worth it.

Ben (if your league is underrating him like you are), Brady, Eli, Bradford, Rivers, Tannehill would all be two good choices to lean on throughout the season.

Don't try to chase the guys that have Rodgers/Luck, just beat them soundly at WR2 and RB1.

BTW no QB is going to score more points week 1 than Bradford against the Falcons.

 

[TREFF]

Get yourself two stud WRs and grab your QB later. You are sitting at the turn. You'll be able to get your two favorite QBs at some point in the draft when it's actually worth it.

Ben (if your league is underrating him like you are), Brady, Eli, Bradford, Rivers, Tannehill would all be two good choices to lean on throughout the season.

Don't try to chase the guys that have Rodgers/Luck, just beat them soundly at WR2 and RB1.

BTW no QB is going to score more points week 1 than Bradford against the Falcons.

Assuming Bradford plays more than the first series

He's a bad waste of a draft pick.

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

When looking at QBs, I tend to weigh their weeks 14-16 more heavily than anything else. If I can't play them with confidence during the playoffs, then I don't even want to draft them. I'm not underselling Big Ben, but if I choose Bell #1, I don't know if its smart to also draft Ben. I have my targets for late rounds and early just to be prepared for anything. Just trying to figure out how much I really like Jeffery and Hilton. I can't see myself trading Drew Brees for either of those two WRs straight up right now.

I understand the situation I'd get myself into if I bypass getting a sure fire WR2 at #25. I just think the value between Jeffery/Hilton to a guy like K.Allen/Tate isn't that great.
So which is a stronger unit?

QB Brees
RB L.Bell
RB #2 (5th rd)
WR Cobb/Jeffery
WR K.Allen

or

QB Tannehill/Stafford combo (example)
RB L.Bell
RB #2 (5th rd)
WR Cobb/Jeffery
WR Evans/Hilton

 

[TKOSpikes]

Gimme option 2 every time.

But you don't have to limit yourself to WR at 25. Maybe there's a RB there. Like I said, it all depends how you look at Brees, and I don't see him as a 5000, 35-7 guy anymore. If you do, then your assessment would be justified.

 

[TREFF]

Gimme option 2 as well..every time.

Side note...I find it curious your big concern for a QB is only playoff time. .yet your #1 pick isnt paying the first two weeks. Rather presumptuous don't you think? Granted anything can happen, but im not seeing the correlation. If I'm taking Bell round 1, I'm taking RB's in 2 and probably 3, if not then no later than 4.

 

[Across The Field]

I personally would love to have Ben around playoff time. Games vs. the Bengals, Broncos and Ravens, all teams that score points and Pittsburgh will also likely be in the actual playoff hunt, so I could see him having huge games those weeks.

 

[SteelersPride]

Well I guess it depends on your projections then.

For me, Brees is looking at what, 4500, 30/14?

The difference in getting two top 13ish WR, and maybe an Eli with what, 4200, 33/16?; is better than taking Brees and having a WR2 in the crapshoot that is 4th/5th round guys... much of whom can be outplayed by later round picks.

bingo

 

[SteelersPride]

i really dont understand your train of thought at all, so im gonna refrain from trying to assist, good luck

 

[wilwhite]

Taking RB #1.

The only thing I'd caution here is that about a third of first/second-round RBs each year are complete busts. (Last year it was AP and Ball; the year before it was Spiller, TRich, and Ray Rice.) So with the extra yardage points I'd think long and hard about maybe taking Luck #1.

In any event, Big Ben has been going before Brees in most drafts, so I'd wait and hope he came back the next time around.

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

Gimme option 2 as well..every time.

Side note...I find it curious your big concern for a QB is only playoff time. .yet your #1 pick isnt paying the first two weeks. Rather presumptuous don't you think? Granted anything can happen, but im not seeing the correlation. If I'm taking Bell round 1, I'm taking RB's in 2 and probably 3, if not then no later than 4.

I feel I can draft De'angelo Williams to cover the first two weeks. Doubt I'll find competition for him at draft time. What correlation are you searching for? You think I'm going to throw the first two weeks?
Anything can happen yes that is true, my next 5 picks could completely bust and have to scour the waiver wire each week to field a team. Did that last year after following a plan similar to yours here - drafting 3 rb in the first 4 rounds. That led to a total of 4 games played in 2014 (AP, Ball, Rice). I will be loading up on RBs in the middle rounds instead, which is the reason why I said I'd draft a QB in the 7,8,9 range and not 4,5,6.

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

Gimme option 2 every time.

But you don't have to limit yourself to WR at 25. Maybe there's a RB there. Like I said, it all depends how you look at Brees, and I don't see him as a 5000, 35-7 guy anymore. If you do, then your assessment would be justified.

He doesn't need to be 5000, 35-7 Brees but he wasn't very far from that in his down year last year. I actually do believe he bounces back contrary to what the concensus seems to believe.
I'm not limiting myself to only WRs, but I don't believe in carrying a bunch of WRs on my roster. 4 is typically all I run with, except maybe bye weeks. I'd rather those 4 be strong options and cycle RBs depending on match ups. I feel I'd be reaching for guys I want at #25 - Miller, Ingram, Randle. I think I can get someone valuable at #48/49.
Thanks for your feedback.

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

The only thing I'd caution here is that about a third of first/second-round RBs each year are complete busts. (Last year it was AP and Ball; the year before it was Spiller, TRich, and Ray Rice.) So with the extra yardage points I'd think long and hard about maybe taking Luck #1.

In any event, Big Ben has been going before Brees in most drafts, so I'd wait and hope he came back the next time around.

I am more a Arod guy, but if I chose to go away from RB at #1, it would be for AB or Dez. I absolutely love those two WRs this year.