2014 Chicago Cubs season thread

[Kevin12773]

Theo IMO was just blocking any move so more top end starting pictures are still available this off season when he'll be looking to add an ace and probably another SP as well

 

[anotheridiot]

Theo IMO was just blocking any move so more top end starting pictures are still available this off season when he'll be looking to add an ace and probably another SP as well

It's been a crazy week. DFA barney, trade Bonifacio, Jed states this will not change the time table for Javy, Javy up with the team three days later.

Then Hamels is claimed.

I can see him moving one of the rest, I really dont know if you want Castro at third.

Honestly, if Shark and Hammel turns into Cole Hamels with a 5 year 96 million deal, it still looks like a win to me. I think you can stop at Addison Russell and throw ins since Philly needs to replace Rollins. Almora and Soler would probably both have to go to even get them as excited as Russel would.

I guess if the A's and Phillies talked in June, I am pretty sure Addison Russell would be the cornerstone.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I'd rather give up Castro then Russell. I see Russell as a higher ceiling player. I'm not advocating to trade either, but if I have to move someone I'd move Castro. Russell has more power, better speed on the bases and is a better defender.

I don't think anyone is going to give up more for Hamels then what was given for David Price so an offer of Almora, Vogelbach, Amaya and Candelario is probably better than anything else they would get offered. Not only in terms of top end talent, with Almora as the headliner, but you have 2 fringe top 100 prospects there as well. If Hamels were signed at $15M/yr instead of $22M/yr that would be completely different, but there is no surplus value in Hamels' contract so you are giving up quality assets just so you can pay Hamels market value. Oakland felt they were going to have Samardzija for under value for 1.5 seasons when they traded for him, due to his salary this year and in arbitration next year which if he continue to pitch like he has this year could be a $10M surplus value. There is also no chance Oakland ever considered Hamels, unless Philly was paying half the contract, he would have represented 20-25% of their payroll for the next 5 years.

 

[anotheridiot]

If you listen to JD, he points out alot of concerns with Castro. Says that Quade and Dale had him and had trouble keeping him engaged for the entire 9 innings. You see his secondary leads and not outright hustle to first base and you gotta question him as the "leader" of this team. I think thats the bigger picture with Castro. I think there are concerns when he needs to be dropped in the order and move off of shortstop. I can see it going down hill from there.
Soriano was a magnet for the young latin players. Took care of them, but had his issues like "I want to be told the day before if I am not going to be in the lineup so I dont prepare." I think Castro takes alot of Sorianos thought process. If you dont have to run hard, why risk hurting yourself. You see the difference with players that hustle all the time, make others hustle all the time, and usually dont end up landing weird on first base trying to beat out an infield hit.

I think concerns of engagement, moving position and dropping in the order are enough reason to offer Castro for trades. I am not sure Javy would have the range at short that castro does, he looks short and stocky almost. That leaves it to Russell.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Russell is the best defensive shortstop of the group. His offensive game is very good as well. If Russell hadn't gotten hurt the first week of the season he would be the shortstop for Oakland right now. It is possible that the more guys that come up some of the hustle they should display should rub off. Castro shouldn't have to be a leader with Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Alcantara and Soler up next year.

In order to trade Castro you have to be certain that Bryant is going to stick at 3B. After that the question becomes who is your more valuable shortstop long term, Castro or Russell. Then it becomes who is going to be the worst bat to park in LF between Castro, Russell, Schwarber (assuming he ends in LF and not catcher), McKinney or Almora (assuming Alcantara sticks in CF). Then you keep that player and can trade some of the others for pitching or other needs. To add to it they could try moving Castro to CF if they feel his bat is better then Alcantara or Almora. They could also consider Alcantara at 3B if they are certain Almora will stick in CF and make for the better combination then the other options.

IF Bryant can stick at 3B AND Russell is the better option at SS then Castro AND you like other bats more then Castro then you can trade him. However, if they move him it should be for a young, cost controlled pitcher. You don't trade him for someone like Hamels who is locked in to a market level contract while Castro has a contract that gives you surplus value even if he doesn't hustle as much as you'd like.

 

[anotheridiot]

well, sometimes the team trading the starter has some say in who you can keep.

Majority of cub fans dont expect an all prospect lineup. I would like nothing more than that, just dont expect it to happen.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Unless they get a chance to add a major bat under 30, i.e. Giancarlo Stanton at a reasonable cost, I don't see there being anything added to prevent an all 25 and under lineup, with the exception of catcher, at some point next year. Technically, Stanton is younger than Rizzo, so if they landed him they would still probably be 25 and under everywhere except catcher. The pitching is a different story. I could see them delaying buying pitching at any cost one more off-season, but they are going to have to buy, either through the FA market or trade, a top of the rotation arm or two at some point before the 2016 season.

They have enough prospects that they can have an "all prospect" lineup and still trade legitimate prospects for pitching. If Alcantara is going to stick at center then Almora becomes trade bait. There is no place for McKinney, Vogelbach, Amaya, Candelario, Bruno, etc. unless they are going to be bench players. Then you have the kids from last year's international class like Torres (17), Jimenez (17), Mejia (20), Moreno (17) and Tseng (19) who are 3-5 years out and are probably the backup plan for the first wave to give them all time to prove themselves in the majors before declaring them a bust after a rough rookie season. This group also includes some high ceiling pitching, but that isn't until at least 2017 and a lot can go wrong between now and then. I haven't even mentioned Schwarber who could be anything from the catcher in 2016 to another significant trade chip.

 

[anotheridiot]

I just want them to let Alcantara go back to leading off, thats where he belongs. Coughlin is playing well, he is a good 2 hole hitter. Baez will not ever be a 2 hole hitter with this K rate. Rizzo is not scaring anybody since the ASB. The protection is gone for Javy until Rizzo picks it up again.

I am losing respect for Maddon with this get in the kids head shift he is putting his defense in. Two bombe to right center field means Javy has power that way. I guess Javy was interviewed and said he was not changing his approach. After watching two straight fastballs right down the pipe in his first at bat, he set his k pace for the day.. Just shorten that swing with two strikes and you can work the count. He worked the count nice in his final at bat, just seems like he is going up there looking to guess pitches instead of reacting. Still fun to watch though. Wish they could move Ruggiano or Sweeney already to get Soler up.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Ruggiano isn't going anywhere. He'll be back next season, along with Coghlan, as the 3rd/4th OFs on Opening Day and 4th/5th OFs by mid-season when Bryant and Russell are up. Rizzo has been better after the ASB then he was before with a .296/.383/.519 after and .275/.381/.499 before. Rizzo was on an 8 game hitting streak before the Colorado series. Since the ASB Rizzo has only failed to reach base in two games.

Alcantara was terrible leading off with a .205/.244/.256 line there. I'm not sure the Cubs have a true leadoff hitter right now. Baez probably ends up hitting 4th or 5th, long-term. I'd like to see Alcantara, Rizzo, Baez, Castro 2-5 with Coghlan hitting first. Although, I believe the reason for Baez hitting 2nd is to get him more PAs this year then he would get hitting lower. It is more about getting him trips to the plate so he can see more pitches and make his adjustments so he will be ready for next year.

 

[anotheridiot]

I dont know, I went over Rizzos past 15 games and he has been 7 for 64 with 14K's. Sounds like someone that was cooled off after the all star break.

Got the big swing yesterday, really wanted to see a screamer thru that wind by Baez though. Hopefully the Brewers play him straight up and get out of his head with that shift.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Rumor: Jon Lester?s Former Teammates Believe He Will Sign With the Chicago Cubs | Bleacher Nation | Unofficial Chicago Cubs News, Rumors, and Commentary

Ken Rosenthal reports, via a video at FoxSports, that the Cubs’ willingness last week to take on Cole Hamels’ contract via waivers (a deal did not happen) is “telling” about the Cubs’ ability to spend big, and “some of Lester’s former teammates, meanwhile, already project that he’ll end up with the Cubs, reuniting with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer.”

 

[ChicagoIrish]

MLB Rumors: Chicago Cubs to aggressively pursue frontline starting pitching this off-season - FanSided - Sports News, Entertainment, Lifestyle & Technology - 280+ Sites

With a number of top starting pitchers hitting free agency, guys like James Shields, Jon Lester, and Max Scherzer, the Cubs are believed to be a team that will make a run at adding an ace. That belief has been emerging for a while now, and it sounds like executives around the league are starting to see indications that it will be the case as well. Buster Olney of ESPN writes that the attempted deal for Hamels, while nothing came of it, serves as a signal that Cubs’ general manager Theo Espstein plans to be aggressive in his pursuit of frontline starting pitching this winter

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Looks like the Cubs are going to pursue a big pitcher this off season, If I had to guess it will be Lester.

I think it's possible the Cubs sign a FA this off season, and trade some of the prospects for another top 2 rotation guy.

 

[anotheridiot]

Last night the cubs traded Brett Jackson to the Diamondbacks for reliever Blake Cooper, kid that made the AA all star game this year, so far in AAA 1-0 era of 6 in 17 innings.

Hopefully this opens one spot on the 40 man roster.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

This opens up a spot on the 40 man, but it also leaves a huge question about what they will do with it. Sign Rusney Castillo? Add Bryant? Leave it empty until the off-season and add someone for rule 5 protection?

 

[anotheridiot]

they need to protect CJ Edwards this year for sure. Lots of ex prospect names on the list, including once coveted Trey McNutt. Carlos Villanueva is a FA, he will be off the roster, Hopefully someone ends the Gerardo Concepcion project. Two catchers on the eligible list too. But the 40 man also holds some spots, with Vitters, Szczur, Logan Watkins still on the 40 man who all could be moved. I expected more moves than we have seen in preparation, but hopefully BJax gets another shot with arizona and he forgets what they started to change with Sveum up on the big club.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I think Edwards and Jokisch are the only names that need to be protected. I think either would get claimed and Jokisch has value for the next three years, option years, in AAA and coming up to spot start when there is an injury. Jokisch might end up in the bullpen or take another step forward as a back end rotation option. Edwards would get grabbed and thrown in a bullpen right away, which is where I expect him to end up anyway given his endurance issues.

They have a lot of time to make moves for the rule 5 draft. As you mentioned Vitters can be released. Then you have Villanueva and Baker that will hit FA and be off the roster. Even if they lose a fringe prospect like Jokisch it's not a major loss.

Just to open up a hypothetical let's say they sign Rusney Castillo for the 40th man right now. Then they go into the off-season with Baker and Villanueva falling off as FAs. I don't think they have to take James McDonald off the 60-man DL, but they can also release him over going to arbitration with him. They should be able to protect Edwards and Jokisch without making any moves. Then as they acquire players through the off-season they can make additional moves like DFA Vitters and/or Rusin or release Valaika, etc as needed. There isn't a real number crunch that I see. If they lose a guy like Jokisch or Pineyro are they really losing anything? Keep in mind a team would have to carry the player they take on their 25 man roster all season and I don't think there is anyone other than Edwards and Jokisch that I'd be scared of that happening with.

Here is the list of guys I see on the 40 man that can be released without any hesitation: Vitters, Szczur, Rusin, Blake Parker, John Baker (FA), Carlos Villanueva (FA), James McDonald (on 60 day DL and going into last year of arbitration with repeated should issues), Valaika and Logan Watkins. You also have Fujikawa who they have a team option on for next year that might not be picked up. They could DFA Sweeney and potentially just eat the $1.5M they owe him for next year.

*EDIT* Baker is only arbitration eligible so they would have to make a move to protect Edwards and Jokisch, but they have lots of options.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

The Cubs are over .500 since July 21st! Baez, while putting up his normal high K, low avg, low OBP numbers for his first 4-8 weeks at a new level could end up 2nd on the team in HRs this year. As "bad" as Baez has played he has still put up .5 fWAR in 19 games. Arrieta, Hendricks and Wada have the rotation looking solid and hopefully Turner will further help that out. Mendy has been very good in CF and hopefully he can adjust and get the bat going in September.

Bryant and Soler thrown in the mix next year and things could get very exiting. Just gotta hope they can land a top of the rotation arm or two this off-season. Maybe trade some of the prospects, or whoever the front office feels is expendable, and has the value for a young pitcher under team control for a while. Maybe add a short-term catcher either to push Welly or split time with him. Although even if they add another catcher I'd still expect Welly to catch 60+ games next year as I'd expect it to be a solid veteran like John Jaso or Iannetta and not a Lucroy, Gomes or Perez type of significant upgrade. Someone that would give Welly more days off so he could work on the subtle things like pitch framing, which he is terrible at, more during the season without working about overworking him before resuming the top catcher spot in 2016.

 

[anotheridiot]

I cant see days off helping Castillo. Framing is perfected during games.

Hollandsworth was on the radio, said Baez needs to learn from Abreu. Show you are willing to use the entire field (his home runs to right field should prove that) but watching his head on strikeouts, his head is already looking down the third base line when the ball passes the bat. Keep your eye on the ball and stop trying to show everyone you can hit fastballs on rooftops is what he needs to adjust. For the most part though, it seems Javy is not looking for much advice on his swing.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

More days off could give him a chance to work on his framing in non-game situations. Especially, with the new facilities that should be built this off-season. They could have him catching from a machine or a coach during some of his off days to work on it without having to worry about overworking him because they have another quality catcher.