2014 Chicago Cubs season thread

[ChicagoIrish]

Report: Cubs Calling Up Jorge Soler « CBS Chicago

 

[ChicagoIrish]

It's happening boys

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I'm VERY high on Soler. I believe he will be the best overall hitter on the team by 2016. Yes, I realize that with Rizzo around and the other coming soon, i.e. Bryant, Schwarber and Russell that is some very high expectations.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

I'm VERY high on Soler. I believe he will be the best overall hitter on the team by 2016. Yes, I realize that with Rizzo around and the other coming soon, i.e. Bryant, Schwarber and Russell that is some very high expectations.

He could be our best hitter, but I'm still leaning on Bryant and Russell being the best of our prospects.

Schwarber and McKinney are showing some signs that they could be very good prospects as well, and both hit from the left side of the plate.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Russell will be the best player due to the positional value of SS. Schwarber is doing this year what Bryant did last year. The question with Schwarber is can he stick at catcher or is he a LF. If Schwarber sticks at catcher then a Castro, Russell, Baez and Rizzo infield with Bryant, Alcantara and Soler OF would be great. However, if Schwarber has to play LF you have to make a choice between him and Bryant in LF and Russell, Castro and Bryant at 3B and basically some very good player(s) get traded for pitching.

The reality is that some of them are going to get traded. It's a question of who and for which pitchers. I think we'll see some of that unfold this off-season with a chance for more of it at the trade deadline as I expect them to be in the playoff race next year. Maybe they sign Lester and trade for a pitcher this off-season and don't need to add anything significant at the deadline. Maybe they just sign Lester then trade for Latos and/or Cueto, if the Reds are out of it at the deadline. Maybe a trade for Hamels. Maybe trade for Wheeler and Syndergaard from the Mets. The Rays might look to trade a pitcher for some more offense. Maybe they trade McKinney back to Oakland along with Almora for Samardzija, lol.

The Cubs have a lot of high value assets right now. They have a lot of money available this off-season. 2015 should be a very exciting year.

 

[anotheridiot]

reports are Soler will be joining the team tomorrow night in Cincinnati.

 

[anotheridiot]

that was a fun night.

I gotta hope that Soler gets a shot against Chapman this afternoon.

Chapmans response looking over his head at the long fly out and the subsequent acknowledgement of Javy as he ran thru the celebration will hopefully have this rivalry fed with baseball and not Rizzo charging their dugout.

 

[Aussie77]

Jorge Soler certainly looks like he goes alright will be interesting to see what this team looks like on opening day next season

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I expect the position players to look almost identical to what it does now on Opening Day. Rizzo, Baez, Castro and Valbuena in the infield with Coghlan, Alcantara and Soler in the OF. I think Logan Watkins could end up as a DeRosa type super utility guy with Ruggiano as the 4th OF. I could see Szczer or Lake as the other OF and possibly Olt as a bat off the bench. I expect Welly to be one of the catchers, but I'm not sure who the other will be. I'd like to think they will add another catcher so there is more of a 1a and 1b next year. Someone like John Jaso would be a good catcher to split time with Castillo.

The pitching is where it is up in the air. Can they land Lester? Will the pick finish high enough to be protect and let them pursue Scherzer and/or Shields? Will they trade some of their prospect wealth for a proven MLB pitcher under team control? They have been a .500 team over the last 96 games or so. Maintaining that over such a long period while moving Samardzija and other significant pieces shows the enough progress I would expect them to make a few moves this off-season. I hope they make a run at two starters who profile as a new 1-2 with Arrieta as the 3 and Hendricks, Wada, Straily, Doubront, Turner, etc fighting for the 4 and 5 spots.

 

[anotheridiot]

Hendricks and Wada shouldnt have to fight for anything. Are you expecting Wood to be non-tendered or dealt?

They tried to trade Jackson, seems they will need to pay a big part of his deal to move him.

I still think they have enough pitching to deal with next years expected hitting struggles as everyone adjusts to major league pitching. I know everyone is waiting for those 150 at bats at the next level for Baez, but until he cuts down on his swing with 2 strikes, the league is gonna change that normal next level time frame with him.

Soler is showing his longer stroke is alot easier to adjust in the zone. Baez is in the zone such a short time its gonna be more swing and misses.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I think they can deal Wood for a lottery ticket or include him in a deal for pitching with one of Baez, Russell, Bryant or Castro. I think they can move EJax to a team trying to unload some salary by taking a similarly bad contract with some upside.

I could see something like one of Castro, Russell or Baez with McKinney, Vogelbach, Wood and EJax to the Phillies for Hamles, Ruiz and Papelbon. Papelbon's contract is bad, but he at least still provides some value. I'd much rather pay Papelbon $26M over the next two years than pay $22M to EJax. They could also use Papelbon in high leverage situations instead of as a closer and it wouldn't kick in his 2016 option. Ruiz would give them an upgrade at catcher. Castillo and Ruiz would be a solid duo there for 2015 and 2016. Hamles would give them a top of the rotation arm that would only be a 4-5 year commitment.

Wada is 33 with no history of success in the majors. I like him, but I'm not willing to hand him a rotation spot when I have guys like Turner who have more upside and are much younger. Wada should be competing for a spot. Hendricks is having a similar year to Wood last year where his ERA is drastically better than his pitching. Hendricks has a 3.41 FIP and 3.94 xFIP with two more option years. There is no reason not to tell him he has to compete for a rotation spot, although I would fully expect him to win a competition between him, Wada, Doubront and Straily. Wada has a FIP of 3.80 and xFIP of 3.77, although he could end up similar to Iwakuma, and consistently outperform his FIP and xFIP as I see them as similar pitchers, but I would want more options as Wada hasn't shown he can carry a big league work load.

My real concern about Cub pitching next year is the work load they can carry. I don't question that Arrieta, Hendricks and Wada are all legitimate big league pitchers. However, none of them have shown they can pitch 150+ big league innings. Wada's history in Japan has me less concerned about him than the others. However, I can't completely trust any of them, including Turner, to give me the 180+ innings needed from a big league starter.

 

[anotheridiot]

Olt may be back to play some first base.

Soler accepted a 4 pitch walk his final at bat instead of going for another extra base hit that would have had him alone as the only player in mlb history to start his career with 6 games with an extra base hit.

I just dont know if they should buy pitching this winter or buy at the deadline next year. Buying at the deadline will show the page has turned. Maybe they do both.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I'd like to see them at least buy one pitcher in the off-season. I just can't see going into next season with Arrieta, Hendricks, Wada, Turner and Wood as your rotation. EJax would be somewhere on the team, or clear waivers and be in AAA. Straily, Doubront and Jokisch would probably be in the fight for the 5th rotation spot as well.

I'm looking at a team that has played over .500 ball over the last 100ish games despite moving their two best pitchers in early July and dealing with some injuries. I just can't see them justifying doing nothing. I can see them justifying only adding one pitcher, either Lester through FA, or maybe a trade with the Mets sending one of Castro, Russell, Baez or Bryant along with some lesser pieces for Wheeler and Syndergaard. A trade with the Mets could give them a pitching upgrade heading into the season along with a boost during the season with Syndergaard and they would still have ammo during the season if they needed to add another arm. The Rays are also a potential trade partner as they have an extra starter or two, assuming Matt Moore is going to return to form after TJS. If the Reds fall out of it they will probably be trying to move Latos and Cueto who are FAs after next season. Schwarber would be available to trade in June and if they determine he can't stick at catcher and he is crushing AA he might be able to headline the deal for one of them and maybe both if they start with Schwarber and Almora then throw in lesser pieces.

They have a lot of options and while Buster Olney and others keep talking about Giancarlo Stanton and how the Cubs can outbid everyone else on him, which is true, there is not really an urgency to go get him. Giancarlo would be a huge upgrade and to put him in perspective if the Cubs would have had him over Schierholtz this year they would be about 7 wins better right now. However, since the black holes of Barney and Schierholtz will be gone with Alcantara, Baez, Bryant and Soler providing positive value the Cubs just from those additions should gain about 10 games next year. Replace Wood with a quality starter and Hendricks, Turner and Wada pan out and the team is fighting for the central with one strong off-season move. I'd rather they add two pitchers just because if you are going to flip the switch and go for it then jump all-in and don't just give the team a chance to hang around expecting to need to do something during the season to get over the top.

 

[anotheridiot]

Baez starting to show quite a bit more to me. Hasnt hit a long ball in a while, but with Castro out of the lineup, he is showing alot of leadership in the infield, playing stellar shortstop, taking walks, getting on base and limiting k's. I know they have more outfielders than infielders, but it was interesting they put Alcantara back at second base. Might see how they play up the middle the rest of the year that might make dealing Castro a bit easier.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I think it is just about keeping all options open. Showing Alcantara can play a good 2B in the majors pushes his trade value. It also helps them see life without Castro. It could also be that are still very high on Almora despite his very bad year, where he was one of the youngest players in AA, and want to see what other options they will have when he comes up. Castro, Baez, Alcantara and Russell all started at shortstop so they should have the versatility to move almost anywhere in the field. So I expect the Cubs to take advantage of that as they mix and match pieces. It also helps to show that off to teams that that might have pitching they would like to trade for this off-season. The down side is that Baez's range at SS has just made it even more obvious that Castro is much closer to Jeter, sure-handed with limited range, on defense then a top tier defensive SS.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

McKinney has passed up Almora for me, in terms of my excitement level.

I still wish we would package off a few of these guys in the off season, and I'm talking about Alcantara and Baez, not Castro, Bryant, or Russell.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I'd rather see them package off McKinney, Almora, Amaya, Vogelbach and Pierce Johnson. McKinney reminds me of Matt Murton. A high OBP, low power LF. There just isn't any major league value there so trade him while some team still thinks that his 11 HRs and 24 doubles somehow translates to significantly more power as he matures. I also think there is a direct link between who the front office is going to keep and who they would like to move based on their promotion schedule. McKinny was raking in high A all year, but never got moved up. Almora struggled in high A then had a good month and got bumped. Almora's stock dropped because he went up to a level where he was the 5th youngest player at the level and struggled. Baez, Bryant, Soler and Schwarber have all seen similar promotion patterns.

Where guys like Stephen Bruno, Amaya, Vogelbach, McKinney and others have been left at levels to continue to rack up numbers for a full season which tends to increase prospect value. If I were going to guess I'd say they are much more likely to listen to offers on Castro than Baez and Bryant. I'm not sure on Russell they didn't promote him when they, arguably, could have, but he was also recovering from a torn hamstring.

I really don't ever see McKinney playing in Wrigley. He'll be blocked in LF by either Bryant or Schwarber. He can't play anywhere else. So unless they move multiple of Bryant, Castro, Baez, Russell and Schwarber without getting someone in return that plays LF then McKinney has no future with the Cubs.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

McKinney can play CF, and has played that position before.

He can also be a solid left handed lead off man. Writing off a 20 year old prospect and saying he can't be a major league player is kind of premature.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

He can definitely be a major league player. He is an LF only, though. Playing CF poorly in A ball doesn't change that. He will be a solid avg and OBP guy, but with low power relative to his position. Think Nick Markakis in LF. A very solid player, but nothing special. I'm writing him off as a future Cub because of the players in front of him. He isn't a better option in LF than Bryant or Schwarber. So it would take Bryant staying at 3B, which means at least one of Castro, Baez or Russell gets traded, or Bryant gets traded and moved out of the way. In addition to Schwarber being able to take a major leap in his catching abilities to stick at catcher for McKinney to have any shot at playing LF for the Cubs.

The Cubs would also have not pull any long shot move like trading for Giancarlo Stanton, etc. Although, I consider the idea of them trading for a big time OF to be very slim given the prospects they have coming up. I like McKinney and expect him to be a top 50 prospect on most lists this spring, however, I don't see him having a future with the Cubs.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

I think Bryant can play 3B with Russell covering a lot of ground at SS. Move Castro to 2nd, or keep Baez at 2nd and trade Castro.

If Schwarber doesn't stay at C, then why not move Soler to CF and put Schwarber in RF and McKinney in left? Soler is definitely athletic enough to roam CF.