Zeke, What's His Value?

[tlance]

This deal doesn't accomplish it but since we're talking about young RBs in general. I have two propsed offers from the same owner to send me

Either

Doug Martin OR Tavon Austin and Jay Ajayi for Karlos Williams and my next year 1st. I finished 4th last year and he won the league (I was a higher seed than him in the playoffs but he won his matchup and I lost mine and then lost the consolation game (which I almost rather the better rookie pick ) )

I don't really want to do the Austin/Ajayi deal. I did try to trade him for both of them but in cases where I packaged two for one of them. I don't trust either (I'm a Rams fan) so I rather not do that. But for Doug Martin it may be worth it. I'm not sure if DM is a top 5 or 7 RB like some people think, but I gotta believe he'll be at least a top 10. The owner also has Lamar Miller and David Johnson, but honestly, to me, all those guys are in that same massive second group after Bell/AP/Gurley so I do think DM can finish in the top 5, but not that he deff will. The Bucs are a strange team imo and after an earlier talk for Martin fell apart I started pursing Chris Simms (DM finished 5th in pts last year and Simms did 21st... which I guess can happen again but idk)

I'm not sure how to feel about Karlos Williams, but I do really like that I have him and McCoy as a handcuff.

I want to offer a disclaimer before I answer.

In dynasty leagues, I will never trade away a significant future asset to improve my current roster. I feel that the playoffs are such a crapshoot, I would rather have sustained goodness over time that put all my eggs in one basket for a short term title run. With that said, here is my breakdown:

I am not huge on Martin. The Bucs have said that they want to involve Sims even more this year and that he is good enough to be a feature back. This could be closer to a true committee than most are willing to admit. I think he is top 15, but a good deal behind those other backs you mentioned IMO.

Ajayi and Karlos Williams are fairly comparable. I think WIlliams has a much higher future ceiling, but Ajayi had the clear path to carries today and both are young.

This deal basically comes down to which young back you prefer, and whether you think Martin is worth giving a first round pick for. since your team is good, and this deal makes you even better in the short term, that pick would likely be near the end of round 1, so it would carry less value.

I am fairly confident that everyone will tell you to do this. Personally, I am on the fence, but I am also higher on WIlliams long term than Ajayi, and I don't think much of Martin. Even I think it is a deal I would strongly consider.

 

[tlance]

Also, no way I take Austin instead of Martin.

 

[icefreeze57]

Also, no way I take Austin instead of Martin.

Well I'd get Martin or Austn and Ajayi. I wouldn't get Ajayi and Martin. I'm not really considering taking Austin and Jay for Karlos and the 1st.

His other 2 guys are Miller and David Johnson so I guess he thinks Martin is "expandable" but I'm not sure who is actually best of those 3. Martin is older than I thought (27). I already have McCoy and DeMarco murry in that upper 20s age so if it was a younger guy it'd be an easier move for me to make

 

[tlance]

Well I'd get Martin or Austn and Ajayi. I wouldn't get Ajayi and Martin. I'm not really considering taking Austin and Jay for Karlos and the 1st.

His other 2 guys are Miller and David Johnson so I guess he thinks Martin is "expandable" but I'm not sure who is actually best of those 3. Martin is older than I thought (27). I already have McCoy and DeMarco murry in that upper 20s age so if it was a younger guy it'd be an easier move for me to make

Oh. Sorry.

Definite no for me then. Don't think Martin is worth Williams and a first.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Agree, bad deal for you, especially since you have Mccoy, Williams is more valuable to you than other owners

 

[icefreeze57]

Okay, I think I'll sit there then. If it was Miller (which I don't think he'd do) would that change anything to you??

 

[tlance]

Okay, I think I'll sit there then. If it was Miller (which I don't think he'd do) would that change anything to you??

I like Miller a lot more, so yes, I think I might do that.

 

[icefreeze57]

What I like about Miller is that he is younger

 

[tlance]

What I like about Miller is that he is younger

and has less competition. He is the clear cut number 1 guy and a 3 down back, or at least he has the skills to be one. Not sure about the durability.

 

[icefreeze57]

and has less competition. He is the clear cut number 1 guy and a 3 down back, or at least he has the skills to be one. Not sure about the durability.

Compared to Martin who has Simms behind him?

 

[TREFF]

Compared to Martin who has Simms behind him?

Sims isn't great by any means, but found himself a very nice niche as a threat in the passing game. Miller had a better chance staying on the field 3 downs me often than Martin, who will often get taken out in obvious passing situations, in favor of Sims

 

[ehb5]

On the other hand miller has never been given a lot of touches before and it's possible it's not just because of Miami coaching. I could easily see martin getting more touches than miller this year. (Just to play devils advocate).

 

[TREFF]

On the other hand miller has never been given a lot of touches before and it's possible it's not just because of Miami coaching. I could easily see martin getting more touches than miller this year. (Just to play devils advocate).

As could I, never been a fan of Miller in general, and I don't think his usage in Miami was any type of planned "role", but rather he wasn't just good enough to be "the guy", all the time. Martin and Sims do have somewhat defined roles, but that doesn't mean Miller is a better bet for touches by any means, Miller could disappear for a quarter or a half at a time, in favor of Blue, or the rook, and it wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[icefreeze57]

I don't think any of those guys have separated themselves as stable low risk picks.

 

[tlance]

Compared to Martin who has Simms behind him?

Right. And Martin seems to lack 3 down skills.

 

[tlance]

I don't think any of those guys have separated themselves as stable low risk picks.

I agree. Neither is safe. Personally, I would rather bet on Miller than Martin, but it is possible WIlliams ends up being better than both long term. If in doubt, just walk away.

 

[icefreeze57]

I agree. Neither is safe. Personally, I would rather bet on Miller than Martin, but it is possible WIlliams ends up being better than both long term. If in doubt, just walk away.

Yeah I think I'm gonna walk away. It doesn't even save me a roster space (which one of my off season goals is maximize my roster's assets without giving them away for free/having to cut them for rookies)

 

[icefreeze57]

If Zeke gets hurt in camp, think that changes his value in drafts that happen after that? lol

 

[averagejoe]

Per Rotoworld:
ESPN Dallas reports Darren McFadden (elbow) is questionable for Week 1.

Dallas gave McFadden a two month timetable following his mid-June surgery. He’s still in a brace, and is going to miss the majority of training camp. McFadden’s injury could allow Alfred Morris to open the year as the No. 2 back.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

In dynasty leagues, I will never trade away a significant future asset to improve my current roster

And here it is @tlance