Winter Meetings - Possible Moves

[Johnny Sleeper]

The Phillies are getting upset about no one being willing to overpay for Hamels. The Cubs are not going to do a Baez for Hamels deal, which I assume also takes Castro, Russell, Bryant and Soler off the table. If the Phillies are willing to accept something like Alcantara, C.J. Edwards, McKinney, Castillo and Wood that might happen. However, no one is currently willing to give the Phillies multiple top 25 prospect for Hamels, and his contract. There is too much other pitching out there. There is going to be a lot out there next off-season also. The Phillies are on the wrong side of the market. How smart does Theo look for loading up on position player prospects instead of pitching now?

I'd rather have Revere than Byrd as a bat from the Phillies. There have been some rumors of the Phillies being interested in Castillo and Wood so one of them for Revere makes sense. I still think the Nationals and Cubs line up the best with Span and Zimmermann coming to the Cubs and Alcantara as the top piece going to the Nationals. They also have a lot of other pitching depth. Maybe Fister ends up being traded instead.

The Cubs can also just add Gomes and Ross and make a minor move by trading Castillo and maybe Wood then see how the first half goes. If they are in it then they could try to make the move(s) to get over the top. The best players on the team are not 25 yet. The offense will go though up and downs this year. I don't think they will make a move for Wil Myers, although I really like him, or any other long-term OF. It just doesn't make sense to tie up LF, long-term, when you have Bryant and Schwarber who could both end up needing to play there. Ideally, you are looking at an infield of Rizzo, Russell, Baez and Castro with an OF of Bryant, Almora and Soler with Schwarber catching. Alcantara as a super utility type and some veterans and lesser prospects filling the bench. There just isn't any reason to add a long-term bat unless they are going to trade one of their top prospects or Castro, which Theo has said he doesn't intend to do.

 

[NCChiFan]

All of a sudden, I have a lot more faith in Theo... Will be interesting, finally, to see this year play out.

 

[RamCub]

I think the Phillies want to hold on to Revere. I also prefer him over Byrd. However, the Phillies want to unload money like the Dodgers did with Kemp so they will probably tie a bad contract to Hamels in a trade. The Phillies are in a bad spot but kudos to Ruben Amaro for getting two good pitching prospects for Rollins. He might wait till injuries hit other teams' pitching staffs in spring training for a deal to his liking for Hamels.

My opinions:

Bryant will stay at third.
Castro will be the one to go sooner or later.
I think the Cubs value Alcantara more than other clubs and Maddon will appreciate and use his verstility immensely. Also, the Oakland A's owe us a PTBNL in our trade with them and I'm hoping that player is pitcher Raul Alcantara, who I believe is Arismendy's younger brother.

Since it looks like we want to be in the playoff hunt this coming season, I feel Theo wants some experienced bat in the lineup. Trading Wood or Castillo for a younger talent would be the way I feel Theo would go. I prefer we give our best offer for Hamels first which would include Wood, Castillo, McKinney, Pierce Johnson, Pedro Strop, etc. So to kill two birds with one stone, getting that experienced bat with Hamels might be the most efficient allocation of our trade chips!

 

[RamCub]

Update - The Cubs have shown interest in OF Colby Rasmus per the rumor mill this morning. If we sign him, it would be to a one or two year deal maximum.

 

[anotheridiot]

All of a sudden, I have a lot more faith in Theo... Will be interesting, finally, to see this year play out.

I will have more faith in Theo if he sticks by his guns and doesnt go all spend crazy. His free agent signings have not worked well. Boston dumped all his signings after Theo left, even though many blamed the boston ownership for wanting gonzo and crawford. If he wants to get Shields or Scherzer, its fine, but no position players please.

From what I see, we have two additions to big bats, with Soler an entire year and Bryant coming up in a month or so. Baez also will be a big bat when he decides to stop swinging for the fences with two strikes and just tries to hit the ball hard to the opposite field. Montero is also a plus bat behind the plate. To me that is four big bats over what we started last season with.

Question is will Rizzo and Castro go back to bad decisions without Renteria.

I like Hendricks, now he looks to be pushed to the 5. There are still plenty of starters here trying to find their way. Starting with Lester, Arietta, Hendricks, Hammel, Wood, Straily, Wada, Doubrount, Turner and Jokish looking available and CJ Edwards on the way, it should be a good step forward with starting pitching, especially having Lester with his work every day ethic for all to follow. . By the deadline when they are talking about dealing Cole again, the picture for Castro, Baez, Russell might be a little clearer and we can know better as to who can go.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Hendricks, Wada, Straily and Turner are the only pitchers that should be contending for rotation spots outside of the obvious. Wood can't get RHH out and should be in the bullpen if he isn't moved. Doubront and Jokish are bullpen arms.

What bad decisions did Rizzo make? Rizzo's BABIP in 2012 was .310, in 2013 it was .258 and in 2014 it was .311. In the minors it was around .360 at every level. The .310 is going to be where he hovers for most of his career with an outlier here and there. Everything else was pretty constant between the three seasons. K rate was 18.6% in 2013 and 18.8% in 2014, BB rate was 11% in 2013 and 11.9% in 2014. Streamer projects a little regression to .271/.359/.501 and only 4.5 WAR. I disagree, but if he "only" puts up a 4.5 WAR season I'll be fine with it. Only 31 position players had 4.5+ WAR last year. Castro was being taught how to adjust his approach and while it didn't work completely as planned he did have the highest BB rate of his career in 2014, his iso was 20 points higher than his career average and he had the highest SLG of his career. So while it caused issues in 2013 it did show dividends in 2014 as he was more selective and made better contact.

As for bats, they are looking for a one year 4th/5th OF type. Right now it looks like it will be Rasmus or Gomes. Neither would threaten the playing time of Alcantara.Based on Maddon's track record with Zorbist I can see him wanting Alcantara to be a super utility player long-term if Almora pans out in CF. However, that is 2 years down and assuming Almora doesn't get traded for pitching.

Theo has said they are not trading one of their big bat prospects or Castro. I take that list to include Baez, Bryant, Soler, Russell, Castro and Rizzo as players they will not trade. Schwarber can't be traded until June, but if they don't see him as a long-term catcher I could see him moved at the deadline if his bat keeps progressing and Bryant is going to go to LF. They have also said they are not handing out another $100M contract this off-season. That could leave some room for Shields at 4yrs and $80Mish, but not Scherzer. Hamels is unlikely unless they can get him for something like Alcantara, Welly, Wood, C.J. Edwards and McKinney. While I feel that would be a fair offer I do not know that it would be the best offer Philly could get. It is a bad time for Philly to be trying to move him with the other pitching options out there in FA and trade including Cueto, Eovaldi and Zimmermann. Right now the Cubs can go into the season with a solid rotation of Lester, Arrieta, Hammel, Hendricks and Wada. Of all the names out there I would prefer a trade for Eovaldi. He's 24, under team control for 3 more years and would require the least in trade. A rotation of Lester, Arrieta, Hammel, Eovali and Hendricks would have established top end arms with upside at the back end in Eovaldi and Hendricks. Straily and Wada would be depth. I want and expect Hendricks in the rotation. I'm not ready to call him a legitimate #3 over 13 starts, but he definitely has the potential to be a high quality arm, although he also has a high bust rate skill set which is why at this point I want him at the #5 going into the season. I want him to prove that he's the exception and the rare guy that can change speeds and locate pitches enough to survive with an 88 MPH fastball.

 

[RamCub]

Update - Cubs announce they are not going to sign Colby Rasmus. However, RP Jason Motte was signed away from the Cardinals for bullpen depth.

Since we have plenty of arms on our pitching staff, I'm sure we have the ammunition to go after what we need. What we need is everyone's subjective opinion. I say we need one more top of the rotation starter to seriously contend and to add to our rotation in case of injury.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

The need for a top of the rotation arm is very subjective. I disagree that the Cubs need another "top of the rotation" arm to contend. To win in the post-season is a different story. I believe we can all agree that Lester is a top of the rotation arm. I also believe we can all agree that Arrita has pitched like a top of the rotation arm with the Cubs and I believe that is because Baltimore would not allow him to throw his cutter, which is his best pitch. To put it in perspective he had never thrown his cutter in the majors until 2013 when he threw it 6% of the time, unfortunately I do not have a break down of that percentage while with the Cubs. Last year he threw his cutter 28% of the time. He took a pitch he had not thrown in the majors and it was is most effective and second most used pitch in 2014.

I see that as two top of the rotation arms for the Cubs right now. Hammel was very good with the Cubs last year and they obviously expect him to continue to be good and I think we can agree that he is a solid #3 or good #4. Hendricks and Wada look like good #4/5 pitchers that have shown they could be quality #3s and in Hendricks case the upside of a #2 and possibly #1, although I would not want to go into this season expecting those results. I would feel better if they added another top of the rotation, #1/2 type, but I do not feel it is needed at this time. What they have will get them through the regular season. The bigger questions are about the offense which will feature at least 4 bats in Baez, Alcantara, Soler and Bryant that have not have a full big league season yet. They will have ups and downs. If the offense comes together this will be a playoff team and they will need to add another arm at the trade deadline. If the offense sputters too much the resources used on adding an arm would, arguably, be misused when they could sign from a list of Price, Latos, Zimmermann, Cueto, Grienke(has an opt-out), Iwakuma, etc next off-season.

Signing Motte for $4.5M was an interesting move. It shows a lot more faith in him than I have at this moment. However, I fully trust the front office in their evaluation and they have more info on him than I have. I just thought he would be signing a $1-1.5M deal to prove he was back then get a bigger deal next off-season. With incentives the deal could reach $7M! I really am surprised by this deal.

I see no need for a signing of Shields or Scherzer. Do not take that to mean I wouldn't love to see Scherzer signed by the Cubs. I just do not see it as a pressing need. If they had missed on Lester my view would be completely different. What I would really like to see is them sign Shields on a high AAV contract for 2 years. I do not believe this is remotely possible, but considering that Shields projects to something around 4yrs and $80M I'd rather give him 2yrs and $50M. Obviously, I do not believe he will be "worth" $50M over the next two years, but I also do not believe he will be worth $80M over the next four years. I'm getting what should be two years worth $38-42M for $50M. That is good value, 75-80% from a FA. FAs almost never live up to their contracts and the value of WAR is brought to a reasonable figure because players under team control have such a high WAR to contract ratio. For example, Rizzo was "worth" $30M last year.

 

[anotheridiot]

I am talking about both Castro and Rizzos sophmore slumps where they were making bad decisions that led to that .258 average. I dont think it was a fluke that Renteria was here and both snapped out of it.

Glad about Rasmous, no place for him here until he realizes he needs to stop listening to his dad and listen to his coaches. He needs a few more years of maturity to figure that one out.

 

[RamCub]

If it's a certainty that the Phillies are going to trade Hamels, then of course I want the Cubs to get him. It should be between us and the Red Sox. Rumor after the winter meetings was that the Dodgers were not going to be a match trade-wise.

I also was surprised at the amount Motte was signed for. It just shows me Theo is going after it. The more arms we add without giving up prospects, the more trade chips we have to make a deal elsewhere!

With Hamels we can advance in the playoffs.

 

[RamCub]

Johnny - Excellent points in your last post. It is a delicate balancing act to maneuver between next year and the following year regarding making moves and allocating your resources. I'm very pleased so far and maybe I'm just being a little to greedy to win the World Series next year.

Update - Padres talking with the Rays about Wil Meyers. However, since the Rays just traded Matt Joyce to the Angels for RP Kevin Jepsen, Meyers might be staying. Since Matt Moore is out til midseason at best, Rays will probably be asking for a pitcher and young prospect bat..

 

[RamCub]

Cubs trade Justin Ruggiano to the Mariners for minor league pitcher Matt Brazis. Ruggiano had a hard time staying healthy over the past couple of years and we are clearing room on the 40 man roster.

 

[anotheridiot]

Cubs trade Justin Ruggiano to the Mariners for minor league pitcher Matt Brazis. Ruggiano had a hard time staying healthy over the past couple of years and we are clearing room on the 40 man roster.

I like clearing outfield spots, gives a chance for Sczcur to stick, I think Lake can turn his bad season around, plus the whole bryant to the outfield just means more playing time to go around.

I still think the cubs try to get DeJesus back though and Alcantara is looked at more as the super sub than full time CF. Sweeney is the only guy on the roster that isnt really part of the outfield future now.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Bryant will be in LF when he gets called up. Valbuena will stay at 3B until Russell gets called up. This was just moving an extra piece coming off an injury for a potentially solid bullpen arm.

Neither Lake or Szczur have a future with the Cubs. They are fringe 5th OFs. Lake is exactly who looked like in 2013 and 2014. A high K, low BB guy who can have a fluke stretch with an unsustainable BABIP, but overall is a terrible hitter. Lake's .377 BABIP in 2013 was completely unsustainable and was higher than Mike Trout's! Even if he can improve on last year to a .300 level, which based on his minor league stats is higher than expected he's still only a .230/.260/.375 type of hitter. Szczur wasn't exactly tearing up AAA, .262/.315/.312, when he got his cup of coffee. Lake will be non-tendered after 2015 when he is out of options and they have to either carry him on the 25 man roster or non-tender him. Szczur will be stuck in AAA all year unless there are some injuries that force them to call up multiple OFs.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I am talking about both Castro and Rizzos sophmore slumps where they were making bad decisions that led to that .258 average. I dont think it was a fluke that Renteria was here and both snapped out of it.

Are you saying Castro and Rizzo were making bad decisions or the coaching staff? The coaching staff tried shoving too much info at Castro and completely changing his approach too far into his career. You can't change a hitter at that point by that much and the coaching staff acted like they were trying to break down an 18 year old kid, when Castro should have had that done to him. It had Castro thinking too much and unsure of what he was doing instead of just trying to tweak the one thing he needs to work on which is laying off pitched outside the zone that he makes inferior contact with. Once Castro had a chance to process that during off-season instruction from the new staff he the highest BB rate of his career in 2014.

As for Rizzo he just had an insanely unlucky BABIP. He was hitting the ball in the air more which should have led to better results, but he was just very unlucky. He had the same approach in 2014 and the same GB/LD/FB splits with the expected BABIP numbers and his results normalized.

Neither case had anything to do with Renteria. Rizzo would have rebounded no matter who was there. Castro needed someone different, but it didn't need to be Renteria. It just need to be someone that understood that Castro is past the point of teaching him how to hit and is at the point where you are just trying to make minor tweaks to his approach. Maddon understands this as well as anyone in the game. It's not a fluke that he was complete with the Yankees and Red Sox year in and year out with a roster that had 1/3 of their payroll. It is because he knows how to get the most out of his players.

 

[anotheridiot]

Just saying that Castro and Rizzo were lost and pressing. All the numbers can be manipulated to bad luck. Sorry, people just lose me at BB rate. I remember reading somewhere Yadi Molina hits something like .361 when he swang at the first pitch a few years ago. His numbers up until he saw three pitches were all over .300. Work the count and see 7 pitches and the average dropped into the .170's. Those are the numbers that turn walk rates around. you say Castros approach was thinking too much, then he sounds like a guy that does not need walk rates pounded in his head.

I have gotten into too many arguments over walk rates. "our #4 and 5 hitters have the highest walk rate on the team". Really? arent they supposed to be driving in runs? If your 6 and 7 hitters are batting their weight teams are clearly pitching around the two hitters you have.

My impression, I like Castro hitting 2nd. He had his really good year batting second. He bounced around from 1-7 when he had his bad year. Last year mostly hit cleanup. With Bryant, Soler, Rizzo, Castro should not be the cleanup choice anymore, so we need to see where Maddon hits him before figuring out if he is gonna grasp this pitch watching again or any approach the new coaches will preach.

 

[RamCub]

We're rumored to still be looking for a right-handed bat. Cross Justin Upton off the list, as he has been acquired by San Diego.

 

[anotheridiot]

We're rumored to still be looking for a right-handed bat. Cross Justin Upton off the list, as he has been acquired by San Diego.

dont mind no upton. He had us on the no trade list, didnt want him to change his mind.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

David Ross signed. Time to trade Welly. Allen Craig is the only bat I can think of that is known to be shopped and could fill LF that wouldn't potentially block a prospect down the line.

 

[RamCub]

Agree about Upton. Just too streaky for me. Allen Craig might end up being a steal for whoever gets him if his foot is back to full strength.

Catchers are at a premium this offseason with Norris pulling in a hall and Grandal (once) and Hanigan (twice) being trade chips. Welly will be included in some deal.