Offseason Moves

[RamCub]

The light at the end of the tunnel is getting closer! Options for discussion:

1) Starlin Castro to the Mets for P Zack Wheeler and P Jacob deGroom (other pieces will be added from both sides)

No more base-running lapses and other mental mistakes. These two pitchers are getting valuable major league experience and are holding their own. They will continue to get better.

2) To beat out the Red Sox for Cole Hamels we will need to take on the salaries of Ryan Howard and John Papelbon. I say no problem. Howard can serve as our DH for the interleague games and back up Rizzo and give him a breather when his back acts up next year. Phillies receive Travis Wood, Arodys Vizcaino, Pedro Strop, Dan Volgebach, and Pierce Johnson.

3) Sign FA P John Lester or P Max Scherzer

2015 Opening Lineup

2B Alcantara
SS Baez
3B Bryant/Valbuena
1B Rizzo
RF Soler
CF Lake/Ruggiano/Sweeney
LF Valbuena/Bryant
C Castillo

DH Howard

Bench
INF Watkins
C Baker
OF Szrur

Rotation
Lester/Scherzer
Hamels
Arrieta
deGroom
Hendricks

Bullpen
Papelbon
Rondon
Ramirez
Wheeler
Grimm
Dubrount
Straily
Schlitter

Minors
SS Addison Russell
C Schwarber/Caratini
P Edwards
INF/OF Vitters
OF Almora

 

[calsnowskier]

So you expect two cost-controlled #2/3 SPs for Castro? I would think you would need to give up another significant piece before the Mets even pick up the phone to start the negotiation process. Castro for Wheeler one-for-one is a better starting point.

Then you plan on moving Wheeler to the bully?

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Something more along the lines of Castro, Vogelbach and Amaya for Wheeler and Syndergaard would seem realistic. The Rays are also an option with something like Baez, Almora, C.J. Edwards, Vogelbach and Amaya for Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly.

There is no chance the Cubs would pay $60M for two years of a bench player. Maybe something like Castro, Almora, Vogelbach, Pierce Johnson, Amaya, EJax and Wood for Hamels, Ruiz and Paplebon, but Ryan Howard is a deal breaker. With the Cubs taking the bad contract of Papelbon, but the Phillies taking the bad contract of EJax. Papelbon is owed more money, but could at least be useful as a high leverage reliever.

They also be pursuing Lester this off-season and that could easily be their only move. They also decide to stay put and wait until June to make any moves. At that point Cueto and Latos should be options, as the Reds will most likely be out of the playoff race and trading them. By that point Russell would be ready to step into SS so IF they traded Castro they could replace him right away with Russell.

There is also the expectation that Giancarlo Stanton could be available. Assuming they don't like Bryant at 3B due to his defense and because he is a Scott Boras client they could trade him with Almora, Vogelbach and Amaya for Giancarlo. An OF of Stanton, Alcantara and Soler would be on of the best in baseball for the next decade. Then you have Castro, Russell, Baez and Rizzo as your infield. With McKinney and Schwarber as trade bait for the deadline if you need to add another piece. A trade for Giancarlo with a Lester signing would almost make them a lock for the playoffs. It would be about a 12 win upgrade without accounting for full seasons of Baez, Soler and Alcantara and the half season of Russell upgrading the SS defense and probably being an equal bat to Valbuena, who would go from playing 3B every day to the bench as Castro slide over to 3B.

I don't like the idea of trading for Giancarlo as much as trading for pitching. However, I also would much rather give up prospects than an established 3 WAR SS so if the Mets want Castro over prospects I'd be hesitant. Prospects, even top 10 prospects, bust at a high rate. If the prospects turn into 3 WAR players we will be very happy with that. So why would you trade a 24 year old 3 WAR player away? If the Mets or Rays won't accept prospects for pitching and you HAVE to include Castro then so be it. However, I'd rather deal prospects for Giancarlo than Castro for pitching even though pitching is perceived as the bigger need. Give me a 6 WAR player acquired with high risk prospects and then go sign Lester. I can live with Arrieta, Hendricks, Wada and Turner as my 2-5 with a probably upgrade coming around the trade deadline when teams are more desperate to move expiring contracts. Look at how little the Rays got for David Price because they felt that had to move him at the deadline.

 

[RamCub]

calsnowskier - Castro is an everyday player under an agreeable long term contract. deGroom and Wheeler will be end of the rotation guys when the Mets have Harvey, Niese, Gee, Snydergaard, and Montero. Is there another shortstop with the credentials and long term contract of Castro out there you think the Mets would want over him? Wheeler's inconsistency needs more seasoning in the bullpen in my opinion. However, he would be the first one to join the rotation in case of injury. Also, there would be other pieces in play, but not significant ones.

Let's see what the Mets do at shortstop.

 

[RamCub]

Johnny - Thanks for the in depth analysis in your response! I guess I'm just tired of seeing Castro botch the base paths as I witnessed recently when an easy triple was turned into an out because he paused three times - not running full speed out of the batter's box, pausing rounding first, and pausing around second instead of looking for the third base coach. If he eliminated even one of those pauses he would have been safe at third! Just not a smart baseball player. He won't change.

Baez talked to him in the dugout after this most recent embarrassing episode.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I'm just really conflicted on what I want to see this off-season. Part of me wants them to get the Marlins on the phone and not hang up until they have a deal for Giancarlo and Jose Fernandez and I say that knowing the price would be somewhere around Bryant, Russell, McKinney, Almora, Pierce Johnson, Vogelbach and Amaya. Then follow that up by signing Lester. That would put the Cubs in the playoffs next year with a very good and young core.

On the other hand I see the prudence in just bringing up Bryant and Russell as they are ready. Letting Arrieta, Hendricks, Wada and Turner try to show that they can be depended on for a whole season. Have Wood and EJax as the other starter and long man in the bullpen and provide rotational depth. They will also have Jokisch, who I view as a bullpen arm, but some thing he could be a 5th starter. Pierce Johnson might be ready to break in late next season. C.J. Edwards would get a chance to show he could stay healthy. Tseng might could have a big year ending in AA. I believe Tseng is the best pitching prospect in the organization.

Then they can go after pitching after next season in what will be a deeper FA class for pitchers, but I'd expect all the pitching options to have QOs where Lester won't have one this off-season. They will also have a full season of big league data on Baez, Bryant and Alcantara and I expect 1/2 a season on Russell. They will know if Schwarber can stick at catcher short-term, can last in LF or if he is a 1B/DH only guy.

With the exception of Almora every prospect has done what was expected so far. Almora, even with a disappointing season still finished as the 5th youngest player in AA and showed some improvement the last few weeks. However, he showed more 4th OF skills this year than 1st division CF. Again, that is being hyper critical of a 20 year old who is young for his level, but he is definitely no longer considered a top 25 prospect after this season and I wouldn't be surprised if he failed to make some top 100 lists going into next season.

I'm torn between the idea of flipping the switch and going for it in 2015 and beyond with big, bold moves. Keep in mind that Theo traded HanRam as one of the moves to put Boston over the top so him trading one of the top prospects for an established player is definitely not out of character for him. The other "extreme" would be waiting to see how 2015 plays out and maybe making a move or two during the season when they are in the divisional race in June. The kind of happy medium would be to sign Lester with maybe a smaller trade for a better backup catcher so Welly is more of a 1a than having him as the clear #1 catcher. That isn't to rip on Welly, but his pitch framing is horrible and while he is a solid catcher overall he's not a great catcher and if they could add someone like John Jaso or Chris Ianetta for something like Vogelbach and Amaya it would be a solid upgrade to the roster at a reasonable price.

Anotheridiot is always harping on the idea of trading away the prospects. I'm assuming he understands the bust probability, which is very high for Bryant and Baez due to their contract rates in the minors, but he is in love with the idea of a very homegrown core. I also love the idea of that, but I just debate the practically of it. If all the prospects pan out you are going to have 5-6 extra high end players that you have to trade at some point or just let rot in the minors or be bench players until they hit FA. It is also a matter of the value of trading while you are so deep and have more prospects developing compared to adding FAs that will cost you future 1st round picks. At some point they are going to have to add more high end pitching and that isn't going to come from the farm in the next 3 years. By trading prospects and keeping your draft picks and draft budget you can continue to restock the farm like Theo and McLeod did in Boston.

I'm really ready for the season to end and the Winter Meetings to get here so we can start to see how 2015 is going to look. Are they going to pony up for Lester? Are they going to trade some of their excess hitting for pitching? Are they going to make the big splash and turn prospects into a proven big bat in Giancarlo? I do not see a clear cut right answer. They can all be the right answer it is just a matter of how much the front office feels they need to acquire to jump to 95 wins and winning the division. The years of 90 losses are over and the worst place you can be is 85 wins and just miss. So I expect them to go into the season looking for 95 wins and add during the season if needed as they will still have significant prospect ammo to trade.

 

[anotheridiot]

Anotheridiot is always harping on the idea of trading away the prospects. I'm assuming he understands the bust probability, which is very high for Bryant and Baez due to their contract rates in the minors, but he is in love with the idea of a very homegrown core. I also love the idea of that, but I just debate the practically of it. If all the prospects pan out you are going to have 5-6 extra high end players that you have to trade at some point or just let rot in the minors or be bench players until they hit FA. It is also a matter of the value of trading while you are so deep and have more prospects developing compared to adding FAs that will cost you future 1st round picks. At some point they are going to have to add more high end pitching and that isn't going to come from the farm in the next 3 years. By trading prospects and keeping your draft picks and draft budget you can continue to restock the farm like Theo and McLeod did in Boston.

I'm really ready for the season to end and the Winter Meetings to get here so we can start to see how 2015 is going to look. Are they going to pony up for Lester? Are they going to trade some of their excess hitting for pitching? Are they going to make the big splash and turn prospects into a proven big bat in Giancarlo? I do not see a clear cut right answer. They can all be the right answer it is just a matter of how much the front office feels they need to acquire to jump to 95 wins and winning the division. The years of 90 losses are over and the worst place you can be is 85 wins and just miss. So I expect them to go into the season looking for 95 wins and add during the season if needed as they will still have significant prospect ammo to trade.

It is hilarious for alll these trades I see suggesting that Vogelbomb is an asset to any NATIONAL LEAGUE team and would be "THE" guy that actually makes the trade happen. He is a DH waiting to happen.

Pay Howard 25 million to be Rizzos backup for 20 games and DH 1/3rd of a season? You do know that every hitter does not make a great DH. Sitting in a dugout waiting to bat is not something everyone can do.

What I am harping on is all these people that were sucking the teet of Theo since he got here to get their kool aid, all of the sudden saying, lets deal what he has spent 3 years building to get better old players. Thats why I coined the word betterans. There is always someone out there. Its a draft pick. If they fail they fail, but the ceiling is so high on some of these guys you gotta give them a shot.

I am interested to see what happens too. If they keep sweeney and ruggiano around its wait til 2016.

It really has nothing to do with the record. I believe Ricketts was the guy pushing to get asses in seats and get Baez and Soler up here. I dont think Theo wanted either one here yet. But they have been selling 5-10,000 more tickets since they got here. You bring Bryant with them next year and you will have sellouts again. We need signs for advertising while the stadium is half full and beer sales are down a million a game. I dont think Hamels or Howard (one of the worst contracts in league history) will fill those seats.

 

[RamCub]

Johnny - You said it - What course to take to get to 95 wins - There is no clear cut right path to take. All the options could be the right ones.

Understanding this, I believe the priority, as Jed Hoyer stated recently, is to focus on starting pitching. Since we made a generous offer to Tanaka, I'm quite sure that signing Lester is the number one goal especially since he comes with no draft choice compensation and is a proven postseason performer.

The only way to beat out the Red Sox for Hamels, is to take on bad contracts like the Dodgers did from Boston two years ago. Hopefully, the Phillies will deal with us to unload money - we can afford it.

It's going to be fun this offseason!

 

[anotheridiot]

Johnny - You said it - What course to take to get to 95 wins - There is no clear cut right path to take. All the options could be the right ones.

Understanding this, I believe the priority, as Jed Hoyer stated recently, is to focus on starting pitching. Since we made a generous offer to Tanaka, I'm quite sure that signing Lester is the number one goal especially since he comes with no draft choice compensation and is a proven postseason performer.

The only way to beat out the Red Sox for Hamels, is to take on bad contracts like the Dodgers did from Boston two years ago. Hopefully, the Phillies will deal with us to unload money - we can afford it.

It's going to be fun this offseason!

You realize the bad contracts that the Dodgers took from Boston were the bad contracts that Theo wrote right? I dont know why there is confidence that Theo is all of the sudden gonna pay the right guys here.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

The only way to beat out the Red Sox for Hamels, is to take on bad contracts like the Dodgers did from Boston two years ago. Hopefully, the Phillies will deal with us to unload money - we can afford it.

Just to make sure I understand this. You think that Hamels is worth $170M over the next five years? The value of his contract and Howard's. If you are going to spend that much for 5 years of Hamles, plus including a few solid prospects, why wouldn't you just give Scherzer 7yrs and $200M? It costs you less per year and you pretty much get the same pitcher without wasting a bench spot on Howard. For the price of Howard and Hamels, $47.5M, next year you can probably sign both Lester and Scherzer. You also keep all your prospects to make a deal during the season if you have something you want to address.

I'd love to take the other side of this argument just to get into another debate with AI, because it always brings out good info for both sides of the discussion, but there is no way I can argue for taking on Howard. Like the movie says, never go full retard. Hamels has a market value contract. Papelbon has a bad contract. So if you are asking me to take both of them and charging me a solid pair of prospects, i.e. McKinney and Almora, along with taking my bad contract in EJax and a player I don't have a spot for in Wood then I can accept it, because I can at least get something useful from Papelbon. The only way the Phillies unload Howard, to anyone, is to pay $50M of the $60M still owed to him.

The Boston and LA comparison is terrible. Adrian Gonzalez is still a 3 WAR player. Josh Beckett just put up a 2.88 ERA this year, before getting hurt, and is off their books after this season. Crawford isn't the same player he was before his injuries, but he's still a useful 1.5-2 WAR player. Boston is paying over $15M for players not currently on their roster this year. LA also has the TV deal the Cubs can only dream of. The Cubs make $10M more off TV revenue than the RAYS!!! The Cubs are a big market team with small market income, outside of attendance.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

You realize the bad contracts that the Dodgers took from Boston were the bad contracts that Theo wrote right? I dont know why there is confidence that Theo is all of the sudden gonna pay the right guys here.

I don't have a problem with any of the contracts that Boston sent to LA. AGon is still a 3 WAR player and while he is being paid like a 4 WAR player that is the cost of playing the FA game. Beckett's contract looked back due to injuries, but he had a nice season this year, 2.88 ERA, the last of his deal so he ended up with one horrible year, 2013, mainly due to injuries on that deal. Crawford is a rough contract because he got hurt right after signing the contract. A guy with no injury history suddenly getting hurt will tend to make a contract look much worse. Crawford is still a solid 2 WAR type player, but again, he is being paid like a 4 WAR player.

The only one of those four contracts that looked bad at the time of the signing were AGon because the last three years are probably going to be rough, but he does have the right profile to age well so it might not be that bad. Contracts like Prince Fielder, Alfonso Soriano, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn, Ryan Howard, B.J. Upton the last CC Sabathia and ARod extensions, the Miggy extension, etc you knew were bad the moment they were signed. I can forgive a bad contract when a guy with no injury history gets a fluke injury that totally changes his game. I can also forgive a bad contract when it was brilliant until a pitcher, Dice-K, hides an injury so they can pitch in the WBC and destroys their arm. You just do not expect a rational person to hide a serious injury just so they can pitching in the WBC and destroy their professional career.

Most FA contracts end up as bad contracts, meaning they provide less value than the salary. However, a lot of that has to do with us comparing them against the entire player pool. Guys like Trout, Rizzo and Giancarlo making pennies compared to their true value due to service time deflate the true value of a WAR in FA. It is commonly accepted that a WAR is worth just over $5M right now and we get that based on the amount of wins available and total salaries in baseball. However, that calculation is actually a bit off as it makes no distinction about service time. A WAR in FA is really worth closer to $7M, because you are competing for it against every other team. It is not practical to compare WAR per dollar amounts of players making the league minimum to those signed in FA. Players you draft should be giving you better value because of the salary limitations even through arbitration. When you have to invest the amount you do in a player in FA one fluke injury or missed season makes the whole contract bad.

Take Castro's contract as an example. He got signed for his arbitration years and sold some of his FA years cheap for more money early. He basically made $11M last year, his $6M signing bones and $5M salary, and had a terrible year where he provided no value. The reasons behind that are irrelevant. This year he is making another $5M so we are up to $16M total. His season is done, but he put up a 2.7 WAR season worth $15M. So after two years he is basically even money on his contract. Next year he'll make $6M and we assume he'll be worth $15M again. However, if he has a freak injury during Sprint Training and misses the whole season suddenly that contract goes from looking great to having some questions. That is on a relatively small contract compared to an FA contract as well as next year would have been Castro's last year of arbitration and the $22M he will made for 2013-2015 will be more than he would have made through arbitration, especially after last season's production level. However, the $38M he'll make over the next four years, assuming they decline the team option, is well below what he would have gotten as an FA, around 55% of FA value for those four years, assuming he has a normal and healthy 2015.

 

[RamCub]

If we can convince Scherzer to come to Chicago, I'm all for it! We don't need Hamel's permission to acquire him in a trade. If Hamels gets us into the postseason, I'm all for it! That's the goal and doing what it takes to accomplish 95 wins!

Go Cubs this offseason. You have my permission to spend the dough!

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Hamels gets to block 20 teams from trading for him each season. Although, this will be the last because he gets 10/5 rights if the Phillies keep him for another year. The Red Sox are currently one of the teams that he can't be traded to. He gets to make a new list before the off-season starts and he could easily put the Cubs on that list if he doesn't want to play for the Cubs making it impossible to acquire him.

Scherzer might not have the Cubs at the top of his list, but for $200M he probably changes his mind. There isn't a team on Hamel's current list that I'd be worried about taking on Howard with Hamels. The Yankees won't do it as they have too many bad contracts and are trying to get under the tax line to reset their tax rate. The Dodgers don't need Hamels enough to even consider taking on a bad contract with him and they laughed at Philly when they tried to get three top 100 prospects from them for Hamels at the deadline. The Padres are probably only not blocked because he knows they would never trade for his contract, forget about taking on Howard as well. Atlanta would only take Howard if Philly was taking B.J. Upton and giving them about $30M. The Cardinals don't need pitching and would have signed Pujols if they wanted a bad contract. The Rangers already have a terrible contract that needs to be a DH in Fielder they can't take another.

So none of the teams that Hamels would take a trade to would take Howard. The real problem is Philly wants a package like Bryant, Almora and McKinney for Hamels and with his contract he isn't worth anywhere near that. There are also other trade options like the Mets, Rays and Reds. The Phillies continue to say they are going to try to reload to compete next year and if they really think they can do that <insert laughter> they aren't moving Hamels.

 

[anotheridiot]

Take Castro's contract as an example. He got signed for his arbitration years and sold some of his FA years cheap for more money early. He basically made $11M last year, his $6M signing bones and $5M salary, and had a terrible year where he provided no value. The reasons behind that are irrelevant. This year he is making another $5M so we are up to $16M total. His season is done, but he put up a 2.7 WAR season worth $15M. So after two years he is basically even money on his contract. Next year he'll make $6M and we assume he'll be worth $15M again. However, if he has a freak injury during Sprint Training and misses the whole season suddenly that contract goes from looking great to having some questions. That is on a relatively small contract compared to an FA contract as well as next year would have been Castro's last year of arbitration and the $22M he will made for 2013-2015 will be more than he would have made through arbitration, especially after last season's production level. However, the $38M he'll make over the next four years, assuming they decline the team option, is well below what he would have gotten as an FA, around 55% of FA value for those four years, assuming he has a normal and healthy 2015.

You are right, which is why I am asking these are the types of players you choose to move for Howard and Hamels. The chicago white sox proved you dont need the highest paid team to win a world series. When they tried to repeat, they added 30 million to their payroll and have not been close since. The Cardinals proved that a few times. But the "we can afford it" lines keep showing up.

As far as the yankees trying to get under tax, that is laughable. They have their own network, they have an over 50,000 seat stadium with the highest average ticket prices in baseball, but still average around 43,000 per game.05-08 when they were throwing their money around, they averaged over 50,000 per game. They will continue to take on every salary they want. Its just a punk kid billionaire that wants to do things different than dad. That wont last forever.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

The White Sox won with a pitching staff that all had career years. It was complete luck which is why they had so much regression the next year. To have three guys on one team have a career year is rare and that White Sox team was a complete anomaly. The Cardinals win with a lot of home grown talent, but they also have multiple guys on their roster making money. The Cubs would have to add Scherzer, Lester AND Hamels just to have a chance of catching the Cardinals in payroll next year.

The luxury tax in MLB increases each year you are over it. By dropping below the tax line for one year you restart the rate. Last year they paid over $29M in tax. To put that in perspective the only other tax payer last year was the Dodgers who paid $10M. The Yankees paid $19M more in tax with a payroll only $12M higher than the Dodgers. They might end up being just under it this year with ARod being out.

As for a trade with the Phillies. The only reason I would include Castro or Baez or Bryant is if I'm getting Hamels AND getting rid of EJax's contract. EJax's contract is almost as bad as Castro's is good. So in order to dump that contract you are going to have to give up something that provides surplus value and that would most likely mean one of the top prospects or Castro. If I'm just trading for Hamels without getting rid of EJax then the offers cap out around McKinney and Amaya. Two good prospects, but not can't miss guys and both will be in AA next year so they have a ways to go. A team that trades prospects for an established player almost always wins the trade even when trading top prospects. That is just the nature of prospects and their extremely high bust rate.

 

[RamCub]

I forgot to mention that Hamels indicated in an interview that he would really be interested in the Cubs if the Phillies were to go into total rebuild mode. I'm sure he also would be interested in going to a contender. The Cubs and the Red Sox are the most likely trade partners given the prospects they could send and the salaries they could accept in a deal.

The Phillies have positional prospects like the Cubs - C Joseph, 3B Franco, etc. they must get pitching in any trade for Hamels. That's why the Red Sox are the favorites to land him if he is dealt. They have many pitching prospects almost ready for the majors. That's why they moved Peavy, Lackey, and Lester.

I agree with the Dodgers decision to turn down a Hamels trade for three top 100 prospects. With Hamels being over 30 years old, that is too much. Also, it became clear the Phillies were demanding way too much for the players they were trying to move.

I'm hoping a package of Wood, Strop, Vizcaino, and Pierce Johnson, in addition to other pieces will be the elixir to get Hamels and a bad contract or two! I'll take Dominic Brown off their hands also since they are so desperate to move him.

For the record, I'm interested in trading Castro but keeping Bryant, Baez, and Soler. I would trade Castro for young pitching only, which the Mets have a supply of. No to a Castro for Hamels deal. Sorry, but no deal for an everyday young cost-controlled shortstop with offensive ability in exchange for an over 30 year old pitcher.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

AI, just to play devil's advocate, would you trade a 22 year old Jay Bruce, 20 year old Aaron Rowand and 19 year old Dmitri Young for a 24 year old Miggy? Because that is very close to what you are looking at in a Brynat, Almora and McKinney for Giancarlo trade. That is assuming all three prospects actually pan out. Just to be clear there is no clear right answer. Is Bryant with 2 years of the league minimum followed by 4 years of arbitration more valuable than two arbitration years of Giancarlo followed by 4 at FA value? To me, assuming you believe Bryant pans out it is pretty much a push and could go either way, but Giancarlo offers the guaranteed production over the risk. To be clear, if Giancarlo were 28+ it wouldn't be a push and the edge would go to the prospects.

I do like the term betteran and have seen it for years for various sports in terms of holding back a younger player. However, Giancarlo doesn't qualify for this team. He would qualify for the term best, because you are not going to find a better corner OF, especially at his age. If he were on any other team in baseball you would never have a shot at him. To put it in the other direction, you wouldn't consider trading Rizzo to the Twins for Bruxton and Sano, who are both top 10 prospects, because Rizzo is an established top tier player at his position. When you think of the top 1Bs in baseball you think of Goldchmidt, Votto, Rizzo, Abreu, Miggy and Freeman. Only three of those players are under the age of 27 and their teams wouldn't trade them for any prospect package offered.

If anyone were suggesting the Cubs sign Pablo Sandoval to play 3B, Melky Cabrera to play LF or trade for Denard Span to play CF then that is a case of chasing a betteran instead of letting Bryant, Russell and Alcantara develop and grow. I have heard all three of those names in various places and while Span would make sense as a stop gap in LF who could lead off until Bryant and Russell were both up and then give you a high quality 4th OF who would walk after 2015 the others make absolutely no sense. Span and Coghlan as your 4th and 5th OFs during a playoff race would be nice, but I'd rather have the pitching I could get with that $9M than a minor upgrade for my 3rd/4th OF.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

For the record, I'm interested in trading Castro but keeping Bryant, Baez, and Soler. I would trade Castro for young pitching only, which the Mets have a supply of. No to a Castro for Hamels deal. Sorry, but no deal for an everyday young cost-controlled shortstop with offensive ability in exchange for an over 30 year old pitcher.

I tend to lean the other direction. Castro is an established 3 WAR player about to enter his prime. So if you give me my choice I'd prefer to move the higher risk prospect, despite the higher ceiling. However, I expect most other teams to feel that way which is why I throw out Castro in most fake trades. There has been a few whispers that the Mets would prefer Baez to Castro. I expect Baez to be a very good player, but moving him and having an infield of Rizzo, Castro, Russell and Bryant with Schwarber and McKinney fighting for the rights to LF, and they should be battling on the same team in AA to start next year, doesn't seem like a bad thing to me, especially if I'm adding Wheeler to my rotation as my #3 behind Arieta and a true #1 like Lester and Syndergaard to my farm.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

No way in hell should we trade Bryant and Castro, that is just purely insane.

 

[anotheridiot]

I tend to lean the other direction. Castro is an established 3 WAR player about to enter his prime. So if you give me my choice I'd prefer to move the higher risk prospect, despite the higher ceiling. However, I expect most other teams to feel that way which is why I throw out Castro in most fake trades. There has been a few whispers that the Mets would prefer Baez to Castro. I expect Baez to be a very good player, but moving him and having an infield of Rizzo, Castro, Russell and Bryant with Schwarber and McKinney fighting for the rights to LF, and they should be battling on the same team in AA to start next year, doesn't seem like a bad thing to me, especially if I'm adding Wheeler to my rotation as my #3 behind Arieta and a true #1 like Lester and Syndergaard to my farm.

Baez looks awesome at ss. I hate to say it, but he looks like a Jhonny Peralta type build.

I dont think the Mets would want the prospect over castro. Their fans want the names over the projections, their projections have not played out. I just wish I knew they plan to keep Bryant at third because that would make it easier to deal one of castro, baez or russell. I have just watched too many lapses on the field with Castro. Not being aggressive on bases, watching his hits instead of running, its something that just wont go away for someone expected to be the leader. Seems all he leads in is getting guys to put sunflower seeds in their back pocket and chew on them all game. I think its alot of eggshells with castro. Just like not messing with the Baez swing, I dont think they are comfortable pushing castro.

Basically, you gotta deal with Castros lapses, Baez not changing his approach with two strikes just trying to make contact to right field, and hearing Russell is Derek Jeter 2.0 so dont fall in love with either castro or baez. Its some kind of great feeling to have the assets to allow a trade and not lose much.

As far as giancarlo, yeah, he is the best, he is challenging Trout for the best player in the game, but its one player at a position you have strength at. Soler, Bryant, eventually Schwarber and Jiminez. Where is the leadoff hitter gonna come from? That is a need. a #2 hitter that will get on base instead of airing out the stadium with his swings is missing. You can name 4 prospects that might or might not make it, but its 4 guys that fill a lineup card, not just one guy. Lot harder for 4 guys to slump together.