Offseason Moves

[Johnny Sleeper]

Baez has looked very good at SS, which is why a lot of people thought he would push Castro off SS just a year ago. I don't think Baez hits #2 next year. I think it is just to get him reps this year to get past his normal adjustment stage then he should hit around 5th next year. He will have to adjust just like he has at every other level. I expect Baez to make the adjustments and I expect him to be a good player. Rizzo was the same age when he came up with the Padres and posted a 30% K rate and struggled then the following season he had his beak out for the Cubs. Russell is a much better defensive SS than Jeter ever was and he has more power than Jeter, his average and OBP probably are not going to be as good as Jeter otherwise he would be a great solution as a lead-off hitter. I'd compare Castro to Jeter before Russell as they are similar defensively and both are 15-15 type of guys, but Castro will never put up the OBP that Jeter did. There are not many players that can put up a career .378 OBP.

I'm not worried about the lead-off hitter, long-term, as I think between Alcantara and Russell you can get one of them to be a solid lead-off hitter. The hope is for everyone to provide a solid OBP, .320+, with 2-3 being .350+. The Tigers lead baseball in runs scored and they don't have a true lead-off guy using Ian Kinsler and Rajai Davis as their #1 hitter, but VMart and Miggy are their high OBP guys carrying them to a MLB best .330 OBP. The Angels are 2nd in runs scored and similar with Kole Calhoun as their #1 hitter, but they have a .323 OBP for the team.

I don't think they know if Bryant will end up at 3B or not. A lot of it has to do with how they acquire pitching this off-season and the uncertainty of who they will move to make that happen. Then depending on who gets moved they'll put together a plan A, B and C for positional alignments. Schwarber also will cause some adjustments to that after they work with him on catching in Arizona this off-season and depending on if they feel he can actually stick there, at least short-term. I agree with you that the Met fans would prefer Castro, and I would expect the Mets to feel the same way, but there have been some rumblings that they would prefer Baez. Now, as with all rumors we might find out if that is true with a trade this off-season or we might never know for sure as the Cubs might deal with the Rays or just buy pitching.

 

[RamCub]

AI - I agree with you on Castro. The leadership and example-setting qualities are not there. That's why I want to trade Castro for young pitching. The Cardinals made us an offer for Castro last year then decided to sign Peralta as a free agent. To get quality pitching, you need to give up a proven value in the big leagues.

Johnny - I agree with you that we shouldn't be looking to sign stopgap positional veterans like Sandoval (conditioning.injury issues), Span, or Melky Cabrera. They are on the downside of their careers. The Yankees signed former all-stars (Ellsbury, McCann, Beltran) and still won't make the playoffs.

Bottom line - Pitching wins championships. Just ask the Giants.

I believe we will use every option, (trades, free agents, minor league call-ups) to go after the pitching we need this offseason. It already is fun to explore and speculate how we will accomplish it!

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Just to be clear on the pitching wins championship myths the Giants were 12th in runs scored and 7th in ERA in 2012. In 2011 the Cardinals were 12th in ERA and 5th in runs scored. In 2013 the Red Sox were 1st in runs scored and 14th in ERA. The 2010 Giants team that was 1st in ERA and 17th in runs scored was an outlier. The Yankees had won it the year before with the 20th ERA, but led baseball in runs scored.

Baseball has shifted from an offensive game to much more pitching friendly under the current drug policy which bans substances players from the 60s and earlier used. So if you have a big time offense you are an exception. Look how easily the Cubs have been able to find guys like Maholm, Hammel and Feldman over the last three years. Under the current rules it is much easier to take a 5.00 ERA pitcher and make some tweaks and turn them into a 3.50 ERA pitcher than to take a .200/.250/.350 hitter and make a few adjustments and have them hitting .280/.330/.450. Look at Valbuena who has slowly improved over three years during his prime. This is the first season in his career that he has been above league average on offense and it took three years of slow and steady improvement to get there. Compare that to the instant results they have gotten from some pitchers.

Buy the pitching and develop the hitting. Sign Lester and Scherzer and rotation is set. Then you can throw your position player prospects out there until you find the right combination. A few will bust, I'm going with Bryant and Almora as the big disappointments, but some Baez will bust. Some think Baez is already a bust. The payroll would be around $90-95M next year and in 5 years when the prospects start getting expensive those contracts will be about to decline. Throw in the new TV deal and advertising revenue and the payroll hitting around $130M in 2019 isn't an issue. They also buy time to find and develop in house pitching.

 

[RamCub]

Johnny - Your stats reflect the season. I was referring to winning one game playoffs, divisional series games, championship games, and of course, World Series games.

The guys on the mound will take us to the promise land.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

There is so much pitcher variance year to year that buying a guy like Lester or Scherzer has a lot of risk. Look at Verlander compared to two years ago. Buying an ace pitcher from the previous season doesn't guarantee you one the next. The average life span of an ace pitcher is three seasons. Before and after those three years they don't really live up to that reputation.

The top 20 pitchers, by fWAR, in 2011 were Halladay, Verlander, Kershaw, Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Jared Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Doug Fister, Ian Kennedy, Matt Garza, Daniel Hudson, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, MadBum, Brandon McCarthy, Chris Carpenter, James Shields and David Price. Fast forward to 2014 and only Kershaw, Hernandez, Price and MadBum are in the top 20. Shields and Hamels are still in the top 30. McCarthy, Kennedy, Verlander and Garza are still in the top 50. So you only have 50% of your top 20 pitchers from just three years ago still in your top 50. Edwin Jackson was #38 in 2010, #28 in 2011 and #52 in 2012 looking like a very solid middle of the rotation pitcher before the Cubs signed him.

While great pitching gives you an edge. Being able to predict who those pitchers will be in three years is difficult. Especially, when you are talking about 30+ year old arms that are likely to be losing velocity. Given the payroll situation the Cubs can afford some attrition if they sign pitchers who drop off, however, the optimal strategy would be to trade for younger established arms. With the price on pitching seemingly dropping off, see the Doug Fister, Lester, Lackey and David Price trades for examples, they might be able to add a few pitchers without giving up any of Castro, Baez, Bryant, Soler, Alcantara or Russell. The David Price trade also showed how great a trade the Cubs made with both Garza and Samardzija.

 

[RamCub]

Excellent post and totally agree in principle!

Predicting who will stay healthy pitching wise can't be done but the risk does go up for 30+ arms.

However, look at Darvish, Wacha, and Tanaka this year.

Bottom line...the old cliche (because it's true)...You can never have enough pitching.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Absolutely agree that you can never have enough pitching. This is why I hope the Cubs add two quality starters this off-season with Arrieta and two of Hendricks, Wada, Turner, Doubront and Straily finishing the rotation and the "losers" of the battle for the 4th and 5th spots can fill the Carlos Villanueva long relief/spot starter role and go to AAA to be quality depth when an injury happens. My guess is that Turner and Hendricks would earn the rotation spots with Wada as the long relief guy and Straily in AAA with a chip on his shoulder and Doubront accepts that he is a bullpen arm instead of carrying an attitude out there like he has in the past and is a high quality bullpen arm. If Doubront can't accept that he is a bullpen arm he probably gets cut.

 

[anotheridiot]

I dount think Doubront is a pen arm. He starts slow and gets stronger somehow, almost like CC. Thats a recipe for disaster for a pen arm. You need the guys that start strong and lose it to pitch the inning or two in the pen.

 

[anotheridiot]

Wrigley Field renovation: Chicago Cubs begin demolishing bleachers - MLB - SI.com

 

[anotheridiot]

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAxwXEdI76s[/YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAxwXEdI76s

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Guys, Castro is as good as gone. Just read the cubs moves in the last year. Castro is a knuckle head and the cubs are going to deal him as soon as they can find a piece to trade him for.

 

[anotheridiot]

Guys, Castro is as good as gone. Just read the cubs moves in the last year. Castro is a knuckle head and the cubs are going to deal him as soon as they can find a piece to trade him for.

I dont blame them one bit after this second shooting this offseason and the alleged r*pe that happened in the states that you know he paid to go away. The pieces are getting smaller and smaller with each bad judgement call.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I understand the trade Castro idea. I've been on the move Castro, assuming a middle infielder is going to be moved bandwagon longer than most, however are you actually going to get decent value for him right now. He is supposed to be looking for a place in Arizona to relocate his family to which should prevent future issues. Castro is an established 3 fWAR player! You can't just give him away.

Trading him to Philly as the main piece for Hamels or in another trade for a top young pitcher makes sense. However, you do not give him away because he is being targeted. He has either angered some people or is being targeted, i.e. Henry Blanco who had a family member kidnapped to extract ransom. Neither is ideal. However, you don't give him away. Assuming he is actually moving his family to Arizona I'd accept that he is doing everything reasonable to fix the issue. I'd then ride him out another year before moving hi. Ideally, if he has moved his family over the next few months you can move him at the deadline with other teams having forgotten about the issues to some extent and Addison Russel is ready to take over SS.

 

[anotheridiot]

All I am saying is you are not giving him away now. There will be a return. Honestly, Baez looked better defensively at SS than he did at second last year. I think Alcantara is a better second baseman than center fielder and I also am a firm believer that a player comfortable at his position in the field is more comfortable at the plate. You are not only having him learn a new position, you are trying to find a way to keep his head attempting to make adjustments at the plate.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I think we are on the same page, AI. If they got an offer with a return based on Castro's baseball talent then you have to take it. However, if I'm another team I'm not making that offer because I am now aware of three incidents in the past 12 months that Castro has been involved in. Moving Castro for a big return was much more realistic 3 months ago. Moving him at this point is selling low and you're going to be giving him away for B prospects most likely.

It has come out that the Mets will not move any of their quality pitchers. The Phillies would want Russell, Baez or Bryant along with Castro for Hamels. Castro is worth more than one year of Zimmerman and the Nationals just added a long-term SS and have Ian Desmond short-term. Maybe the Rays for Desmond Jennings then you could move Baez to SS, Alcantara to 2B and have Jennings in CF, but I don't see why the Rays would do that unless you are including Almora so they'd get another CF that should be up in mid/late 2016.