Winter Meetings - Possible Moves

[RamCub]

We're a few days away from what is already shaping up as a busy offseason on the trading market for baseball. We've discussed a lot of possibilities for the Cubs in previous threads.

Here are my thoughts on what I'd like to accomplish:

1) Sign Lester, Scherzer, or Shields

2) Trade Starlin Castro to the Padres for pitchers Tyson Ross, Jesse Hahn, and prospect catcher Austin Hedges

3) Make our best offer for Cole Hamels - Take on a bad contract ( one of Cliff Lee/Carlos Ruiz/Jon Papelbon) and include Travis Wood, Pedro Srop, Justin Grimm, and Pierce Johnson. The Phillies have good positional prospects. They need pitching if they are going to trade Hamels and with Lee being 36 years old!

 

[BigKen]

If Lester delays signing these could be the most boring Winter Meeting in years. Once Lester signs, then everyone knows what everyone else needs and the real business begins.........but not until Lester signs somewhere.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

1. Sign Lester.
2. Sign Chase Headley.
3. Sign David Ross.
3. Trade Castro, McKinney, Welly and Pierce Johnson to the Phillies for Hamels and Papelbon.
4. Trade Valbuena to the Padres for Yasmani Grandal.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Jason Hammel signed. 2yrs/$18M.

 

[Kevin12773]

A trade in the works for Montero?

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Looks like it. That would be going from the worst pitch framer to the best. It seems Theo is trying to take advantage of one of the few metrics that have yet to go mainstream. That problem means Welly will be traded soon to a team who ignores non baseball card stats, like the Phillies, assuming he isn't involved in the Montero trade. Montero and David Ross would be a significant upgrade at catcher from last year.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Lester and Montero. Big day for the Cubs.

 

[RamCub]

We asked about Johnny Cueto today. Also, David Ross and Johnny Gomes on shopping list. Apparently, we're also after a big bat - no names connected that would fit that description.

We don't give up any draft picks signing Lester and Hammel. Great job, Theo and Jed!

 

[RamCub]

Another thought - We can always trade for Cole Hamels at next year's winter meetings. Phillies not ready to totally rebuild yet. I guess they wait till Rollins contract is finished after this year and they have room for a starting shortstop.

 

[NCChiFan]

Nice off season so far, things are looking up. Odds are 12 to 1 for the Cubs to win the World Series.

 

[HammerDown]

Would love to see the Cubbies shake the NL Central up for the next decade.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Trade Castro? Are you out of your minds.

We have two bats that are proven at the major league level, so hey! let's trade one of them! That's completely idiotic.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Cubs obviously making lots of noise this off season. Maddon, Hammel, Montero and Lester.

We definitely accelerated expectations and now the pressure is going to be on.

There's nothing quite like summertime in Chicago when the Cubs are good.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Would love to see the Cubbies shake the NL Central up for the next decade.

We're working on it. Future couldn't possibly look brighter. I think St Louis may be a little worried.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Trade Castro? Are you out of your minds.

We have two bats that are proven at the major league level, so hey! let's trade one of them! That's completely idiotic.

Castro has a career wRC+ of 98 and wOBA of .321. Is the very definition of an average bat. He only has a decent bat because he plays a mediocre SS. One of Castro or Baez is going to be moved for Hamels. Hopefully it will be Castro because his days at SS are done in July when Addison Russell gets called up. You put Castro at 2B and he has the same value as Asdrubal Cabrera or Howie Kendrick. Decent, but far from special. You trade Castro while his value is high and people still buy into the myth that he can become an above average hitter and an average defensive SS.

Castro will be 25 next year. He is what he is. Some teams are still dumb enough to believe in PED era data that suggests later career curves and think that 25 is still untapped potential despite his years in the majors already. You trade Castro because while he has a higher floor than Baez, by a small margin, his ceiling is so much lower it is worth the risk. Especially with the rest of the prospects the Cubs have coming up.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

The best analogy I can give for wanting Castro traded is that he projects as the most inferior of the near ready prospects. Saying that is like walking into a MENSA meeting and laughing at the "dumbest" person there. They are still a MENSA member which means they are in the top 2% of the minds in the world.

Addison Russell is a better defensive SS than Castro with an equal hit tool, more power and better strike zone judgement. Baez has more defensive range and a much higher upside bat. Kris Bryant is a huge bat and should stay at 3B. Schwarber has a huge bat and should end up in LF. Soler is a complete stud in RF. Rizzo is a complete stud at 1B. Almora projects as a very good CF with 20-20 ability.

Being the worst player out of that group is not an insult. It's just that that is the best collection of 25 and under offensive talent that any team has every put together since we started keeping trade of minor league players. Castro is like a cross between Jeter's defense, Pablo Sandoval's bat and Dexter Fowler's base running. Solid across the board which is good for 3 WAR a year, but just no skill that jumps out at you. I'd actually like to see them try Castro in CF as he could be better there than Almora or Alcantara, but once you move him off SS if he struggles to adjust at CF you killed his trade value.

 

[RamCub]

Johnny - I couldn't have said it any better! Castro will be the one to go now or later. No leadership or baserunning skills. Very questionable off the field judgement these past two offseasons.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

The best analogy I can give for wanting Castro traded is that he projects as the most inferior of the near ready prospects. Saying that is like walking into a MENSA meeting and laughing at the "dumbest" person there. They are still a MENSA member which means they are in the top 2% of the minds in the world.

Addison Russell is a better defensive SS than Castro with an equal hit tool, more power and better strike zone judgement. Baez has more defensive range and a much higher upside bat. Kris Bryant is a huge bat and should stay at 3B. Schwarber has a huge bat and should end up in LF. Soler is a complete stud in RF. Rizzo is a complete stud at 1B. Almora projects as a very good CF with 20-20 ability.

I agree with most of this.

Rizzo is a stud, there's a very good possibility that Soler and Bryant will be studs, Schwarber could be a very solid bat in LF. And I do agree that Russell is going to be a better SS than Castro.

My argument is with Baez, yes I know, Baez has a huge ceiling, but he also has a very low floor, that could bottom out. We've already seen 3 All Star selections from Castro, we know he can hit, and I still think he can improve defensively, especially if moved to 2nd base. I'd rather shop Baez, and move Castro to 2nd when it's time to bring up Russell.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I understand that point completely. Castro is a proven 3 WAR player. Baez is a question mark. The other side of that coin is that Castro should also get a higher return in trade. It also has more to do with who you are trading with an who they prefer. I think it is a moot point at this juncture. I do not think they are going to trade any of them during the off-season. They will wait and see how Baez adjusts and then possibly make a move at the deadline if they are in the position to fill a hole to potentially make a run.

Baez vs Castro is potential vs proven. Given the amount of depth the Cubs still have in the farm I'd go for the potential. I also feel that a team trading a proven player, i.e. Hamles, would want back the proven asset over the prospect given the age of Castro. Even if you say he's not going to get any better he is still a 3 WAR player. So with a pair of decent prospects you can justify the trade to your fan base and you have one spot you know you don't have to worry about as you start your rebuild.

 

[RamCub]

Theo is staying away so far from the one year rentals - Mat Latos to Miami - Alfredo Simon to Detroit - even though they didn't require much in the way of prospects. Players with one year left on their contracts will probably be looked at when next year's trading deadline looms - Cueto and Zimmerman.

In the meantime, Hamels will be moved by all accounts and I'm sure we'll be making an offer on him.

Free agents - Shields (Joe Maddon) and Gomes might be of interest.

Trade market for bats - I'm not in favor of a Jay Bruce, Evan Gattis, or Allen Craig trade. I'd rather pick up Marlon Byrd as part of a Hamels deal. With Soler, Alcantara, and Coghlin our starting outfield at the moment with Ruggiano, Sweeney, and Kalish available for Maddon to platoon, I'd rather sign a free agent (Gomes) so we don't give up prospects for an older player or trade for a younger talent (Wil Meyers or Dayan Viciedo).