Who's heading North? Spring Training begins.

[Illinest]

I finally got to see a little bit of spring training on TV and what do i see? Igarashi failing to put the ball in the strike zone, then a meatball that turns into a 3 run homerun.
Then a few errors in the field too.

The Pirates gave me sadface. I thought I'd have happy face when I saw the score in the ninth but I was wrong.

 

[magnumo]

Is there any talk of Lincoln starting game 5?

I've seen no mention of Lincoln as the possible game 5 starter. (But that doesn't mean much.) On the other hand, Lincoln hasn't pitched for a while, due to some kind of nagging injury (I forget what)..... but he's scheduled to start the game today (Sunday). At any rate, I'm guessing that he's behind Morton, stamina-wise. How long he goes today should give us a clue.

By the way, according to Bill Brink in the P-G, Lincoln has an option remaining. See the latter half of this article from December:

Makeup of bullpen relatively unchanged

 

[magnumo]

Give your thoughts on walker and whether he is peaking and we should sell HI...

Seems that Walker still has potential to improve on both offense and defense.

I believe the primary factor which will determine Walker's future in Pittsburgh is how much money he is demanding to sign a long-term contract. If NH decides that he CAN'T sign Walker to a reasonable contract, a trade seems likely..... but probably not this year, since the team has several years of control remaining.

 

[grayghost668]

sorry guys I just can't get excited about the Pirates,I have watched and followed them as far back as the days of Clemente,they have been so bad for so long I don't watch or listen to their games anymore,I just check the box scores every so often

 

[element1286]

As far as peaking, I don't think Walker is going to get much better....he is what he is right now, IMO. But I don't see any need to trade him....gotta keep someone.

 

[sychmd]

i mentioned the guys we should keep. i highlight walker to say if we really make a trade, we wont trade our top notch 5-6 prospects. other trade partners would benefit by a major league proven starter, gold glove contender, switch hitter. we see him everyday so we know he is about at his ceiling, but other teams dont see that yet or can project with a winner, walker can be so much more. we really need a big trade to get that bopper in the middle of the lineup. we cant afford a proven one, and we want a young one as the studs will be here in 2-3 years. pedro isnt it. so we need a 23-24 yo cant miss from a team that has needs and we can throw a good starter like walker, and 4 good prospects like owens and others not named taillon, heredia, cole, marte. pedro not making it really does set our team back several players because we cant by the bopping all-star so we need to trade 3-4 helpful pieces that thins our thin system.

 

[smokeyburgess]

Mags,

This is a follow-up to another thread in which you said you were pessimistic about the Pirates' chances for improving this year based on their horrific second half last year and their subpar performance in Spring Training this year. I posted a reply, stating that I didn't necessarily see a link between a team's performance in exhibition games and the regular season.

Well, if you're right, the bullpen's performance during the second half of last season and in Spring Training this year indicates that the Pirates are in for another rough ride this season. When I look at the bullpen going north, only one reliever (Hanrahan) was consistently effective last year; the rest were hit-and-miss, especially during the second half: one good outing followed by a poor one, etc., etc., etc., and that hasn't changed much this spring.

I can see it now: the improved starting staff, aided by a slightly better defense and offense, will go deeper into games, but the ragged collection of relievers will repeatedly blow games in the later innings. And because nothing can be more damaging to a team's collective psyche (and confidence) as repeatedly blowing games you should have won, I don't see how the Pirates' record can be significantly better than last year's.

So I'm already feeling that my 79-83 prediction was too optimistic, but I'm sticking with it anyway. Perhaps a few of the relievers will surprise and pitch consistently well, but I'm not betting on it!

 

[magnumo]

Mags,

This is a follow-up to another thread in which you said you were pessimistic about the Pirates' chances for improving this year based on their horrific second half last year and their subpar performance in Spring Training this year. I posted a reply, stating that I didn't necessarily see a link between a team's performance in exhibition games and the regular season.

Well, if you're right, the bullpen's performance during the second half of last season and in Spring Training this year indicates that the Pirates are in for another rough ride this season. When I look at the bullpen going north, only one reliever (Hanrahan) was consistently effective last year; the rest were hit-and-miss, especially during the second half: one good outing followed by a poor one, etc., etc., etc., and that hasn't changed much this spring.

I can see it now: the improved starting staff, aided by a slightly better defense and offense, will go deeper into games, but the ragged collection of relievers will repeatedly blow games in the later innings. And because nothing can be more damaging to a team's collective psyche (and confidence) as repeatedly blowing games you should have won, I don't see how the Pirates' record can be significantly better than last year's.

So I'm already feeling that my 79-83 prediction was too optimistic, but I'm sticking with it anyway. Perhaps a few of the relievers will surprise and pitch consistently well, but I'm not betting on it!

Smokey,

I read almost everything posted on this board..... so, no problem responding here.

I agree with the notion that there isn't necessarily a link between spring performance and regular season performance. I believe the lack of correlation has been proven mathematically as a generality.

On the other hand, I'm big on patterns. This Spring, the Pirates have been finding ways to lose a lot of games they should have won..... the same as they did during the second half of 2011. I see a pattern, and that worries me.

Pitching (including the bullpen) is my biggest concern, followed by a weak offense with little power. My take: The starting rotation could be pretty good if everything works out..... but there's no guarantee. If the rotation pitches well, I think the bullpen will be OK. If the bullpen is overworked (as it was last year especially during the second half), it won't help. It appears that the offense will once again go through stretches where runs scored will be few and far between. The "magic bullet" named Alvarez is looking more and more like a bust with each passing day. So..... whatever success the lineup generates likely will be dependent upon ongoing development from the young outfielders.

Bottom line: Everything depends on the pitching. If everything breaks right, I see a possibility of the team approaching .500. Heck, the first half of 2011 demonstrated that they could win a lot of games, even with a lousy offense.

On the other hand, if the team suffers some key injuries and/or key regressions, 100+ losses wouldn't surprise me a bit. In fact, this year seems to hold the widest range of possible finishes I've seen for many years.

I WANT to be more optimistic..... and I'm gonna wait till the last minute, but I still may lower my prediction from 66-96.

 

[magnumo]

Sychmd,

In your posts in this thread, you seem to be saying that other teams may see more value in Walker than the Pirates do..... or that he may be more valuable to other teams than he is to the Pirates. Either way, that's an interesting and thought-provoking idea.

From my perspective, trading Walker comes down to his salary demands AND whether the front office can find a good baseball trade. Unfortunately, NH's track record on picking up promising corner players isn't so good (e.g., Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss in the Bay trade, Clement in the Wilson-Snell trade, drafting Alvarez).

I think I'd prefer that they keep Walker for a while as part of the young core..... the old "bird-in-the-hand" notion.

 

[magnumo]

I finally got to see a little bit of spring training on TV and what do i see? Igarashi failing to put the ball in the strike zone, then a meatball that turns into a 3 run homerun.
Then a few errors in the field too.

The Pirates gave me sadface. I thought I'd have happy face when I saw the score in the ninth but I was wrong.

Maybe they would have won if you hadn't watched!

As silly as that idea is, I get it sometimes for myself.

I guess it's a function of so much losing by one's favorite team.

 

[sychmd]

Sychmd,

In your posts in this thread, you seem to be saying that other teams may see more value in Walker than the Pirates do..... or that he may be more valuable to other teams than he is to the Pirates. Either way, that's an interesting and thought-provoking idea.

From my perspective, trading Walker comes down to his salary demands AND whether the front office can find a good baseball trade. Unfortunately, NH's track record on picking up promising corner players isn't so good (e.g., Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss in the Bay trade, Clement in the Wilson-Snell trade, drafting Alvarez).

I think I'd prefer that they keep Walker for a while as part of the young core..... the old "bird-in-the-hand" notion.

i hear you, and agree. i think the biggest problem we have to date is two fold. 1. trading for quantity and not quality combined with 2. ineffective player development, at least compared to what other teams seem to accomplish.

so my thoughts are, we trade quantity, with a "gem" that we can afford to lose but sweetens the pot like walker, for the one quality bat we need that needs no more real development, but he isnt too pricey and has controllable years.

 

[thecrow124]

i hear you, and agree. i think the biggest problem we have to date is two fold. 1. trading for quantity and not quality combined with 2. ineffective player development, at least compared to what other teams seem to accomplish.

so my thoughts are, we trade quantity, with a "gem" that we can afford to lose but sweetens the pot like walker, for the one quality bat we need that needs no more real development, but he isnt too pricey and has controllable years.

I don't think the problem is necessarily trading for quantity is the problem, but more that NH seems to think he has a special ability to be able to fix problems with prospects that no one else can. LaRoche, Moss, Alderson, Tabata, all came over with some sort of issue, but also the centerpieces of trades. The only one we have even began to fix is Tabata, but even he hasn't reached the potential he had when he first signed.

 

[element1286]

i hear you, and agree. i think the biggest problem we have to date is two fold. 1. trading for quantity and not quality combined with 2. ineffective player development, at least compared to what other teams seem to accomplish.

so my thoughts are, we trade quantity, with a "gem" that we can afford to lose but sweetens the pot like walker, for the one quality bat we need that needs no more real development, but he isnt too pricey and has controllable years.

Ok, so who is this bat we are trading for?

 

[sychmd]

i have enough trouble keeping up with the pirates, i will leave the scouting of our future big bat to you gurus with more technical skills to scour all the sabercrap.

have a good week, we are so close to PLAY BALL!

 

[thecrow124]

Ok, so who is this bat we are trading for?

Mark Reynolds is available. I understand he isn't ideal, but an upgrade in the power department. Of course if we got him NH would have him be less aggressive to cut down on the K's thus negating most of his power.
Adam Dunn could probably be had as well. Again not an ideal addition, but a powerful base-clogger.
I just have a feeling what the management team is trying to do it build an 80's style Cardinals team. Lots and lots of speed, good pitching, a couple guys with a little bit of power, and one bopper. By the looks of the way it has gone this spring, we will be very active on the bases.

 

[Illinest]

Reynolds' value was set at two relief pitchers when he was traded. One looks decent. The other doesn't appear to have much value at all.
I support the acquisition of Reynolds but not if we're trading a more valuable commodity like Walker. Reynolds is a bottom of the barrel solution.

I believe that Adam Dunn is done. I don't want any part of him.

The 80's style teams don't work. Not making outs on the other hand - that works.
Mark Reynolds for example - his career OBP is .334. Same general range as Presley, Walker, and Jones. A lot better than Cedeno. Everybody complains about the strikeout as if we should be trying to make 'productive' outs, but we shouldn't actually be making outs at all. If you get on base a third of the time then that's a heck of a lot more important than what happens in the other 2/3rds.
Then you look at what happens in Reynolds 1/3rd of the time when he gets on base - lots of homeruns. Look at what happens for Walker - some homeruns and some doubles. Look at Presley - some doubles, a few triples, lots of singles.

 

[thedddd]

Well I have been out of touch recently so I am curious on a few notes I heard recently.

Alvarez got hurt? So is the plan to start him on the DL? Or do you think his last option will be used and they send him down.

Corriea is on the Market? To be honest at the moment I don't see them getting enough value in return. He probably has more value at this time by staying on the Pirates.

 

[thedddd]

As for the Reynolds talk. We all know his defense is brutal but what the Pirates currently have at 3B/1B are none too much better. Then for the good defensive replacements their bats aren't good enough.

Unfortunately I think the Pirates need a hitter more and if they could get a Reynolds for a relief pitcher or two then why not?

 

[thedddd]

Finally I think Harrison played himself into a major league roster spot.
Hague on the other hand I think the concern is this is one of those Spring Training monsters (ala Jake Fox last year or Mark Johnson - remember him ). Have a feeling he might start in AAA.

And looking at the numbers this spring, we all know the issues with Alvarez (from what I heard he is still swinging like he is using an aluminum bat) but is anyone concerned about the lack of power/gap power by Tabata?

I haven't watched closely enough to know but his OBP is .317 and his slugging is .375. Not going to complain that he is getting on base at the top of the order but if it is all weak hits that won't last long.

 

[element1286]

Well I have been out of touch recently so I am curious on a few notes I heard recently.

Alvarez got hurt? So is the plan to start him on the DL? Or do you think his last option will be used and they send him down.

Corriea is on the Market? To be honest at the moment I don't see them getting enough value in return. He probably has more value at this time by staying on the Pirates.

NH said this weekend that Alvarez has made the team and will not be optioned to AAA, his injury was said to be minor so I don't think he will go on the DL.