Where does John Elway rank among GMs?

[flyerhawk]

Newsome is tough to rank because he rebuilt his team and it tanked. The Ravens are in a tough spot where they arent going to be good at passing and they aren't that good at defending the pass. He does have a legacy of drafting well but I think he has built the worst kind of team right now.

Ted Thompson was one of the best until about 2012. Its hard to name just about anything the Packers have done right recently.

I read an article a few years back that basically says that every GM regresses to the mean over time. They may start out hot but they quickly start being no better than the average in terms of draft success.

I think Thompson may have regressed to the mean.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I read an article a few years back that basically says that every GM regresses to the mean over time. They may start out hot but they quickly start being no better than the average in terms of draft success.

I think Thompson may have regressed to the mean.

I am fairly suspicious of this. Link? I'd argue the Pack FO just lost talent more than anything. McKenzie and Dorsey (before involving others) were key cogs in that machine.

 

[Clayton]

I read an article a few years back that basically says that every GM regresses to the mean over time. They may start out hot but they quickly start being no better than the average in terms of draft success.

I think Thompson may have regressed to the mean.

I'm not sure what would compel a GM to draft a bunch of Safeties and an overweight RB with your top picks.

 

[flyerhawk]

I am fairly suspicious of this. Link? I'd argue the Pack FO just lost talent more than anything. McKenzie and Dorsey (before involving others) were key cogs in that machine.

It was a few years ago and was about the NFL in general and not the Packers specifically. I'll see if I can find it.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

I read an article a few years back that basically says that every GM regresses to the mean over time. They may start out hot but they quickly start being no better than the average in terms of draft success.

I think Thompson may have regressed to the mean.

I think so, but so much follows your QB situation. Look at Cleveland. Some really good picks in there, especially with the O-line and DB's, but just keep missing so badly on the QB it doesn't matter and things get shifted around. And you hit one or two coin flip guys and you can change a franchise.


I wonder about that regression to mean. I mean Ozzie Newsome is kind of the GM when talking about the top guys. Picked up Flacco/Rice in 2008. 7 drafts later... Maybe Mosley? And their big contracts (Pitta, Monroe, Smith, Dumerville) has them up against the cap with no space, no big easy cap cuts, and a bad roster (that wasn't good when everyone was healthy either last year).

 

[cdumler7]

I read an article a few years back that basically says that every GM regresses to the mean over time. They may start out hot but they quickly start being no better than the average in terms of draft success.

I think Thompson may have regressed to the mean.

My guess is some of that though has to do with picking at the end of the draft every single year when you build up a winning program.

 

[flyerhawk]

I think so, but so much follows your QB situation. Look at Cleveland. Some really good picks in there, especially with the O-line and DB's, but just keep missing so badly on the QB it doesn't matter and things get shifted around. And you hit one or two coin flip guys and you can change a franchise.


I wonder about that regression to mean. I mean Ozzie Newsome is kind of the GM when talking about the top guys. Picked up Flacco/Rice in 2008. 7 drafts later... Maybe Mosley? And their big contracts (Pitta, Monroe, Smith, Dumerville) has them up against the cap with no space, no big easy cap cuts, and a bad roster (that wasn't good when everyone was healthy either last year).

It's tough to consistently hit it because you are competing with 31 other guys who are also top flight at this. You have to consistently outperform them.

 

[flyerhawk]

My guess is some of that though has to do with picking at the end of the draft every single year when you build up a winning program.

I think a lot of it is also like being a stock investor. Sooner or later every great stock picker falls back to the mean.

Because it isn't just about you. It's about beating the system.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

It's tough to consistently hit it because you are competing with 31 other guys who are also top flight at this. You have to consistently outperform them.

Yup, and the cap/FA helps level the field even more. Seattle and Denver will be examples of this. How they work things out as the 1st year contracts come due. That to me really helps define the GM as much as drafting.

 

[Mondo Jay]

5. Worried his arm was dead and thought that playing in Denver could help extend his career.

I never heard that one.

 

[cdumler7]

I think a lot of it is also like being a stock investor. Sooner or later every great stock picker falls back to the mean.

Because it isn't just about you. It's about beating the system.

I would say it also comes down to when other teams see the system you are using it is not long before it is copied. So those guys you were getting in the 5th round that did so well are now being taken by others in the 4th or earlier trying to replicate what you did. The best ones are the ones that can adapt and are willing to change every 5 years or so to fit the new NFL. With the rules changes, coaching changes, and so much more what worked 5 years ago won't necessarily work today.

 

[flyerhawk]

I would say it also comes down to when other teams see the system you are using it is not long before it is copied. So those guys you were getting in the 5th round that did so well are now being taken by others in the 4th or earlier trying to replicate what you did. The best ones are the ones that can adapt and are willing to change every 5 years or so to fit the new NFL. With the rules changes, coaching changes, and so much more what worked 5 years ago won't necessarily work today.

Oh no question about that. The key to successful drafting is being able to properly arbitrage the draft and find value that others aren't looking for. Sooner or later the gap between draft value and actual value evaporates, though, and you have to find different areas to exploit.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

The one thing I will say about Elway is how quickly he retooled after the 2013 SB loss. He could have gone out and spent all the money on Decker and Julius Thomas and even some on Knowhon and Beadles and such to keep the offense together. But he gave the offense less, and went with re-tooling the defense immediately and got it together before the offense would need a rebuild. Something like 15 new starters from one SB to the next and a full new coaching staff... That's a tough call to pull the plug on and go with.