Thoughts at the break

[JohnU]

Reading what the scribes and experts said back in November, here's a few thoughts:

Early bookie odds had the Nats and the Blue Jays in the World Series.
Both are barely .500.

The Dodgers had a ton of high-priced talent. Couldn't miss. They didn't do so well and I've spent most of the summer reading about what a disaster it was. They're a short win streak out of first place.

Same with the LaLa Angels. What's wrong with Hamilton? No, you're right ... he isn't Babe Ruth. But he's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose. Pujols, however, is another story. Honestly, he's a joke now.

Laughing in Chicago, many fans are ... the Cubs are doing MUCH better than the White Sox. Cubs are a bad Reds flop away from catching us, BTW. Dusty will have a plan. Sox were going to challenge the Tigs, right? Dullest team in baseball.

Boston ... bought up a bunch of old farts ... would finish 5th, even behind everybody ... they have the best record in the East. I don't want to read any more about ARoid's rehab or Jeter's rehab. Or Madonna's rehab, or Justin Bieber's or anybody on "Glee."

The Royals were a year away, last year, which was the year before that and the year before ... all the way back to 1995. I read lately that they aren't going to win anything this year, but NEXT year ...

The only thing that's remotely consistent with reality is the M-AA-rlins and the AAAstros, but both of those teams were supposed to lose 120 games, right? Amazing how dense the scribes are in understanding how difficult it is to lose 120 games, even if you aren't trying.

NLC -- why were the Reds the favorites? We were overrated. This team does not have as much talent as the scribes wanted to believe. The Birds are better than the Reds and are on a pace to beat Pythagoras even with 4 or 5 rookie pitchers.

Parrots are winning for one reason -- Russell Martin. No other reason. Period.

Brewers are just a cluster-fuck. Too many injuries, too many bad decisions by a manager who could be worse than Dusty. Still, the scribes had them in the hunt back in March.

Chris Davis MIGHT be on steroids but in Baldy, who cares? They can blame the ballpark there.

Bottom line: Scribes are morons.

 

[WvuDieHard]

John you were reading my mind on an All Star break thread but mine was more in tune with the Reds as a team. Now for these Reds, yes we do have talent, it is not being brought along at a pace that warrants the success we expect. Injuries have played a role in the season so far but not as much as the homers will make you believe. One thing that is consistently true about these Reds are that they are the ultimate underachievers. I always thought underachieving could be fixed with motivation and instruction so where is it? It isn't there because it doesn't exist. The Reds have had a decent 1st half, all things considered, but they are still not doing it without overall sound fundamental baseball. Pitching has been the glue that has held this toothpick boat afloat. If this team hit the ball the way we all know they should and can, we would be 20 games over .500 and beat the teams with above .500 records.
So what do we expect from this group of Reds in the 2nd half?
a) .500 ball to finish 87-75 and finish 11 games out from the Birds
b) .600 ball to finish 94-68 and finish 2 games out from the Birds
c.).650 ball to finish 97-65 and win the division on the last day of the regular season
d) .450 ball to finish 83-79 and finish 15 games out of first and lose the last wild card spot

I go with A as I don't see any real changes to warrant a 2nd half push. We will be lucky to get as good of pitching in the 2nd half as we got in the first half of the season. So that means the bats must pick it up and I see absolutely no reason to believe that will happen with this slap stick bunch of retarded losers that call the Cincinnati Reds Coaching Staff. (always exclude Price from that statement as he is the real deal) So don't go and buy the big screen TV, banners and reds gear, or even a potential playoff ticket, because this is a very unpredictable underachieving group of players.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'm a moron, too.

It's all a guess without a crystal ball. I got a few things right, but a lot wrong. It ain't over yet...

I think the NL West and East are closer than they appear. I expect Giants, Dodgers, Nats all to be better in the 2nd half. If Atlanta's offense stays injured, they're in trouble. I don't see the Padres offense holding up, or the Rockies pitching.

The NLC IMO, is a 3 team race with the Cardinals best fit to go the distance. Pittsburghs pace looks impossible to improve that much in one season, so I'm skeptical of them. I also believe the Reds are a better team without Cueto, Ludwick and a cognizant dugout, than the Pirates overall, but that's based on my possible overvaluation of the Reds, and relatively less familiarity with the Pirates. I do believe the Pirates are better positioned to add via a deal than the Reds are though. You never know about trades or injuries, and teams within 5 games at the break definately aren't out of it.

As far as the Reds are concerned, as long as Cueto isn't under the knife, they have the potential to add a better SP than any team can get via a trade in the 2nd half. The bullpen hasn't been bad lately without Marshall and Broxton, but I have to believe they'll be better with them. I still believe the LF combo without Ludwick will be approximately equal other than HR, with anything he would have brought to the lineup, other than it doesn't appear any hitter will provide close to the 2 hole production Phillips might have, had Ludwick been the cleanup hitter...it's all supposition, because if Ludwick had been healthy, we might be whining about the lack of production from the 4 hitter right now.

Biggest questions for me, are if the can get more from Frazier, if the catchers are healthy enough, and what Choo will do against lefty pitching. Without other injuries, those 3 things will determine how the Reds offense fares.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'm a moron, too.

It's all a guess without a crystal ball. I got a few things right, but a lot wrong. It ain't over yet...

I think the NL West and East are closer than they appear. I expect Giants, Dodgers, Nats all to be better in the 2nd half. If Atlanta's offense stays injured, they're in trouble. I don't see the Padres offense holding up, or the Rockies pitching.

The NLC IMO, is a 3 team race with the Cardinals best fit to go the distance. Pittsburghs pace looks impossible to improve that much in one season, so I'm skeptical of them. I also believe the Reds are a better team without Cueto, Ludwick and a cognizant dugout, than the Pirates overall, but that's based on my possible overvaluation of the Reds, and relatively less familiarity with the Pirates. I do believe the Pirates are better positioned to add via a deal than the Reds are though. You never know about trades or injuries, and teams within 5 games at the break definately aren't out of it.

As far as the Reds are concerned, as long as Cueto isn't under the knife, they have the potential to add a better SP than any team can get via a trade in the 2nd half. The bullpen hasn't been bad lately without Marshall and Broxton, but I have to believe they'll be better with them. I still believe the LF combo without Ludwick will be approximately equal other than HR, with anything he would have brought to the lineup, other than it doesn't appear any hitter will provide close to the 2 hole production Phillips might have, had Ludwick been the cleanup hitter...it's all supposition, because if Ludwick had been healthy, we might be whining about the lack of production from the 4 hitter right now.

Biggest questions for me, are if the can get more from Frazier, if the catchers are healthy enough, and what Choo will do against lefty pitching. Without other injuries, those 3 things will determine how the Reds offense fares.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Wtf ?

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Cardinals have 5 All Stars. FIVE...Molina, Beltran, Carpenter, Wainwright and Craig. Maybe they'll be tired.

 

[JohnU]

I agree on the premise that the Reds will be able to upgrade their pitching from within -- just let guys get healthy -- that other teams probably can't. The Birds seem to think Carp will be back. The Parrots have a lot of guys on the shelf, not sure if they are better than what Hurdle is using at the moment. Burnett, possibly, if he pitches at all.

I really think the Cubs, while not a contender, are NOT the team anybody wants to play. Sveum has done a nice job now that he's ejected some of the waste. More to come there.

Not likin' the Nats, for some reason. I think the Phils have too much experience and will make a run at the East. Atlanta's pitching isn't deep enough.

Dodgers should catch the Snakes. I think the Giants are still the team to beat.

Wild card? Some teams would be happy with it and consider it a step forward.
The Reds, if they settle for that, would be very disappointing.
That may be what I see happening.

 

[redlegs@hokies]

I would hate to play a wildcard game in st louis.

 

[JohnU]

The Cards will pull away from the Parrots, I think, which lets them set a rotation.
But with the Reds, it doesn't matter who they face. They won't score enough runs to beat Buddha.

 

[redlegs@hokies]

The Cards will pull away from the Parrots, I think, which lets them set a rotation.
But with the Reds, it doesn't matter who they face. They won't score enough runs to beat Buddha.

Offense has been a bit of a thorn this year.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I asked about this earlier, but didn't really verbalize my real concern-

I don't think any rule says BOTH wildcards can't come from same division (ie: Reds, Pirates) but I think that 1 game play-in game winner can't play a 1st round NLDS game against the same division (ie: Cards)



In other words, say the Cards win the NLC, AND have the best NL record, the Braves win the NLE, and the Dbacks win the NLW. Both wildcards are from NLC- Pirates & Reds. Assume Reds beat Pirates- I think the way it's set up, the wildcard winner (Reds) can't play the best record (Cards) next, because they're from the same division.

Is that right or not ?

 

[JohnU]

The Reds could play the Pirates in a WC game and, if the Cardinals have the best overall, the winner of that game would play the Cardinals.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Mildly disappointing to me. Considering we only had to win one out of the last three home games against the eventual WS Champs last year to advance in the playoffs, I'd just as soon not play a team we aren't like, 2-23 at their park....we just don't win many in St.Lou.... Come to think of of it,in recent history, we've won NONE at home in the playoffs, so it might not matter.

 

[chico ruiz]

another interesting wrinkle to the above potentiality. the NLC teams play each other 6 or 7 more games this year. the reds play pittsburgh 6 times the final week of the season. i wait all year to see games like that. example: rays last series of the 2011 regular season. in the nlc, teams can make up ground in head to head games for the first time in a long time. much too long actually.

 

[JohnU]

In most years, one division totally dominating the NL would be unthinkable, especially if you had suggested it would be the Central. So in any scenario, the last 2 weeks of the season will separate the teams that can get a bunt down and the ones who can't get 2 consecutive hits. Won't be any fill-in pitchers during those games. If you needed a day off, better wait till November.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Hard to argue with that many late season games determining the fate of teams. Props for those of us unsympathetic types that believe you make your own luck. I like it.

I don't ever remember the NLC dominating other divisions. As a casual observer, for a time Id say the ALEast might have done that. Other than ancient Yankee history, "dynasties" have been rare, and much more brief. 3-4 consecutive years of elite performance is about it, and it's been somewhat cyclic. That old short team "lifespan" thing, I guess.

I'm 54, so the light at the end of the tunnel is probably closer for me, like JohnU, than some, and Dusty is about 10 years older, so he should understand that time is fickle, and doesn't wait for anyone. I watched an interview with David Wright last night, who was young in the Mets last WS, and now will probably be old for their next appearance, if he gets back at all. Miguel Cabrera was a 19 year old rookie in his first WS, and said a few years ago he thought back then he'd go many more times...just not normally true.

All you can ask is that the Reds make the most of the opportunities at hand, in the time they've been allowed.

 

[JohnU]

I work on the belief that time is endless and before there was time, it was the time before that.

I have a few wonderful snapshots of moments in Reds history that guide me to the next level, though I suspect nothing will replace the feelings I had when the '61 Reds won their pennant. Hard to believe that matters more than the BRM teams -- but it does.

I would like to see this team win for reasons that are obvious but I'd say I will not have any enduring memories of this roster. The charm just isn't there. The reasons for rooting for the Reds now, strangely, relate to being happy the Cardinals lose. I can't say I enjoy that, but it's mostly true.

Maybe I rationalize all that to allow me to endure in the event they don't win -- which I see as a larger possibility with each passing week.

 

[Redsfan1507]

More and more I think the real value in life is in the journey, not our intended goal. You gotta have some peaks and valleys to get your bearings...as you know in Indiana, it's normally pretty flat, but it's often a better view than in a valley. Hills are landmarks, but not everyone can occupy them at the same time. We're lucky to have few enough of them so we remember the view.

Bronson Arroyo has been on the World Series mountain, as a young, spare part pitcher ...and so has Dusty, as a LF who's vision extended to whacking a fastball and catching a flyball. Billy Hatcher was a hustle first CF on the wire to wire '90 Reds WC team. Walt Jocketty GM'd some Cards of acclaim, and Castellini had an office there too. Isn't that the extent of the guides to the baseball promised land on this team ? It's probably enough if you don't examine more than the resumes. I can't read the pulse of this team... the belly...I understood the relentless aggression of Pete Rose. The inner strength of Tony Perez. The willful competitiveness of Joe Morgan and the Oklahoma work ethic of Johnny Bench. Davey Concepcion would have folded in the assignment Zack Cozart has been tasked with. Sparky was a soft spoken player PR representative in public, and a fiercely perfectionist sore loser in private. Many of the great Yankee and A's teams hated each other. Players loved Sparky, Alston and Hutch, and hated Dick Williams and Billy Martin, but they played well for them, or they didn't last long. Billy Martin took Reggie Jackson out of a game in mid inning once for loafing a popup into a single, and Reggie was a star at the time. They say you can't do that anymore, in the current generation of kinder, more gentle and sensitive young men, who grew up with participation trophies and suggestions instead of orders.

A blind squirrel finds an acorn occasionally, but World Champions are following a well rehearsed, well executed plan. Nice is great, but unnecessary. They don't give playoff spots to nice teams with nice managers, they give them to teams that win. It's not an accident, or just their turn. Teams that win do so because they take wins away from other deserving teams like the strongest, hungriest wolf in the pack.

 

[Cincy the Red]

Interesting read, this thread, and long time Reds fan here as well. As much as do concur with JohnU, that watching the Cards lose tickles the hell outta me, I still firmly believe the "charm" and the "magic" is still there with these Reds. Back in the day, players played for love of the game and the dream of winning the World Series. Now, it's money, money, and more money....and maybe a shot at the World Series as a nice bit of icing on the cake. Pujols is an example of that change of motivation. He had baseball heaven (for him) right in his face with a community that loved him, great team and went a different way for the money (which was in truth a small difference in compensation).....sad stuff. Anyways, these Reds make me proud every time they go out there win, lose, or draw. Interestingly enough, the Cards & Pirates are much better than anticipated which has in turn, made it difficult for us to overtake them. I wouldn't have it any other way....

We have a 53 win team at the break folks. And once again, if this game was easy, everyone would be doing it and it would be boring as hell. I love the challenge they are facing and I believe they have the heart/desire to see it through to the World Series. Hopefully, we get "sustain-ably" healthy very soon (Cueto, Marshall, Luddy, Broxton) and rip it up going into the stretch run. Our match-up with Pirates is a great place to start....

 

[Cincy the Red]

Agreed Redsfan1507. It IS the journey, the peaks & valleys it presents, and how we address those challenges that defines us as individuals and also these Reds as a team. We are about to find out what they have going forward....

In addition, there is always conversation about "most" Reds fans wanting/needing Dusty to go away (myself included typically). Well, it has become painfully obvious over the past couple years, that there is only one way for that to happen.....the Reds need to win the "whole...damn...thing." He wants to go out on top, and understandably so.

Our Reds need to self motivate and make it happen so everyone can be happy again, heheh.