The Curious Case of RB Values in the NFL

[PDay8810]

I can explain it. Nobody has third and fourth kickers on their squad pulling the average down.

Math can be a great tool.
Dez don't do math

 

[wilwhite]

The bottom line is this: an RB's likelihood of his career ending on any particular play - and any future earnings from play disappearing forever - is far higher for a running back than for any other position.

That's why they want more guaranteed money.

That's also why teams don't want to give them guaranteed money.

Guaranteed money for somebody who isn't playing still counts against the cap. To be successful, a team needs its money on the field. And that's the fight, and will always be the fight.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

We all said that, then we took heath miller. We also took najee. So take that fwiw.

I would never take a TE in the 1st. If I ever did it would be at the end. Like 30,31, 32.

last superstar Te that came in the 1st I believe was Tony Gonzalez. Shit tons have been drafted in the 1st & none ended up being that guy worthy of the draft pick. Usually disappointments for where they were drafted.
Think Olsen was near end of 1st if IIRC, but he ended up on a different team, not the team that drafted him.

If najee was considered a 3 down back. I have no problems with that pick.
I didnt have a problem with the Zeke pick. he could run, catch & hardest part coming out of college. Block!
Not only do you consider the RB skills, but now OC's can disguise all kinds of things by not changing RBs & usually a top RB helps defenses as a whole.
I am not in the RBs dont matter crowd.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

The bottom line is this: an RB's likelihood of his career ending on any particular play - and any future earnings from play disappearing forever - is far higher for a running back than for any other position.

That's why they want more guaranteed money.

That's also why teams don't want to give them guaranteed money.

Guaranteed money for somebody who isn't playing still counts against the cap. To be successful, a team needs its money on the field. And that's the fight, and will always be the fight.

The other problem RBs have is. While considering paying big money to keep him they know it is the fastest from college to pros position on offense. so teams know worst case scenario. Go get another one & use a decent one in the meantime.

 

[PDay8810]

I still think you want to surround yourself with as many good to great players you can regardless of position way more times than not.

someone here actually psoted kicker as more value/pressure....mindblowing!
many here post about RB's are on every street corner...PLUG & PLAY position....mindblowing!!

Over the years the game changed. High School 7 on 7 in the summer has been around for over 30 years now. Play designs to get numbers in the passing game both offensively and defensively is supreme BUT HELL, only an idiot would think the runningback position doesn't matter.

 

[Picklerick 2.0]

This one really puts things in perspective.

They just can't pay anyone anymore since quarterbacks are taking all the money.

 

[fightinfunbags]

The other problem RBs have is. While considering paying big money to keep him they know it is the fastest from college to pros position on offense. so teams know worst case scenario. Go get another one & use a decent one in the meantime.

Only if your young back has demonstrated they can stand up in pass pro. That’s not a given and good luck to your QB if the RB can’t hang in pass pro.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Only if your young back has demonstrated they can stand up in pass pro. That’s not a given and good luck to your QB if the RB can’t hang in pass pro.

well if that were the case. You are not considering paying the RB big money

 

[SteelersPride]

I would never take a TE in the 1st. If I ever did it would be at the end. Like 30,31, 32.

last superstar Te that came in the 1st I believe was Tony Gonzalez. Shit tons have been drafted in the 1st & none ended up being that guy worthy of the draft pick. Usually disappointments for where they were drafted.
Think Olsen was near end of 1st if IIRC, but he ended up on a different team, not the team that drafted him.

If najee was considered a 3 down back. I have no problems with that pick.
I didnt have a problem with the Zeke pick. he could run, catch & hardest part coming out of college. Block!
Not only do you consider the RB skills, but now OC's can disguise all kinds of things by not changing RBs & usually a top RB helps defenses as a whole.
I am not in the RBs dont matter crowd.

U can get a 3 down back later. Zero need for najee when they did, and he has not been good at all

 

[fightinfunbags]

U can get a 3 down back later. Zero need for najee when they did, and he has not been good at all

I’m fairness to Najee that offensive line was garbage two years ago and less offensively smelling garbage last year.

 

[Iggloo]

It may currently be an overreaction by NFL front offices, but there is something to be said for this trend in terms of analytics.

I think we all understand this but to summarize:

In a salary cap era, teams have to think hard about how to allocate money within their budgets to maximize the odds of winning, and minimize their odds of losing.

Quarterback is the most important priority. Your odds of winning without a top quarterback these days are close to zero.

After that you need to focus on linemen: defensive linemen to hit the other guy’s QB so they make forced errors and don’t win, and offensive linemen to protect your QB so you can win.

Then in order of priority you need players who can get open to catch balls and players who can stop other guys from getting open to catch balls.

The rest is all less important than ever.

Running game still matters but not nearly as much because you can more effectively move the ball through the air under the new rules, and because it is a commoditized position. It is much easier to find a serviceable NFL RB than a serviceable QB. You can win a championship with a below average RB. You better have Aaron Donald to win a ring with a below average QB.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

I feel bad for the RBs in the league, not to mention the future RBs as well. It seems as tho it's simply a case of the market catching up to the position. As many have mentioned, the passing game has pretty much become the dominant offensive output. Couple that with incoming RBs who can easily adjust to the game plans at a fraction of the cost. And with RB by committee becoming more and more the standard for a number of teams, there's yet another element to the paycheck decline for many of these talented players.

BTW, I think the day will come, perhaps within the next 5 years, where the same thing will happen to WRs, with the primary reason due to talent saturation. As more young, uber talented players in HS and early college see where the money is going, every speedster with good hands will chase the money as a wideout. The day will come when the league suddenly realizes that the talent level coming out of college will at least simulate, if not completely match, the established talent again for a fraction of the cost.

 

[eaglesnut]

BTW, I think the day will come, perhaps within the next 5 years, where the same thing will happen to WRs, with the primary reason due to talent saturation. As more young, uber talented players in HS and early college see where the money is going, every speedster with good hands will chase the money as a wideout. The day will come when the league suddenly realizes that the talent level coming out of college will at least simulate, if not match, the established talent again for a fraction of the cost.

Not if they aren't running pro routes in the college passing games.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Not if they aren't running pro routes in the college passing games.

But many of them are and even if they're not, the best athletes will be entering college and (hopefully for them) the pros as wideouts, which was my point, maybe not well explained in my previous post. I'm quite confident the WR market will eventually tighten due to these reasons, altho perhaps my timeline might be a bit off. But it will happen.

 

[SteelersPride]

I’m fairness to Najee that offensive line was garbage two years ago and less offensively smelling garbage last year.

Yes. And he still was not good. Last yeah his foot may have ben an issue. Regardless. We could of drafted a lineman. We should of drafted a lineman. He has been mediocre at beet. Warren in limited action has been more effective. But soooo glad we drafted najee .

 

[PDay8810]

Yes. And he still was not good. Last yeah his foot may have ben an issue. Regardless. We could of drafted a lineman. We should of drafted a lineman. He has been mediocre at beet. Warren in limited action has been more effective. But soooo glad we drafted najee .

najee is the one guy keeping you guys above 500 the last two seasons

 

[Payton]

The only way to fix this is to create separate salary rules for RBs somehow. It is a unique position in that rookie contracts almost extend out to the typical apex of a RBs typical career, so teams don’t want to re-up for a huge guaranteed salary. I’m sure every team points to Zeke and the Cowboys and goes, “THAT is why to don’t pay a RB coming off his rookie deal big money. Don’t care how good he’s looked.”.

IMO the financially smart move for the Giants is clearly to sign a vet for cheaper (Cook, Hint, etc…). They would likely be able to crank out the production the Giants need at the position. Likely not quite to the extent of Saquon, but the drop off is worth the dollars saved under the current salary system,

NFL needs to Double the rookie deal amounts for RBs for starters. Maybe only have half the amount of a veteran RB deal count against the cap? (I don’t know… spitballing here).

 

[Schmoopy1000]

U can get a 3 down back later. Zero need for najee when they did, and he has not been good at all

well plenty of 1st round backs that missed. That is the danger.

Do you land an Eric Dickerson or a Felix Jones.

 

[fastforward]

I'm not saying I would never pick a TE, RB, or ILB in the 1st. Elite players are worth it. If there aren't high quality players available at more valuable positions then picking a player at a less valuable position becomes a better option. However, there are 30+ DL averaging $10M per year in the NFL and there are very few RBs earning that much. I think it's financially safer to draft QB, WR, DL, LT, & CB and pay FAs at other positions. It's much harder to draft the other positions and then pay for FAs at the expensive positions. I take a Dalvin Cook in round 1 but not a Leonard Fournette.

 

[fightinfunbags]

The only way to fix this is to create separate salary rules for RBs somehow. It is a unique position in that rookie contracts almost extend out to the typical apex of a RBs typical career, so teams don’t want to re-up for a huge guaranteed salary. I’m sure every team points to Zeke and the Cowboys and goes, “THAT is why to don’t pay a RB coming off his rookie deal big money. Don’t care how good he’s looked.”.

IMO the financially smart move for the Giants is clearly to sign a vet for cheaper (Cook, Hint, etc…). They would likely be able to crank out the production the Giants need at the position. Likely not quite to the extent of Saquon, but the drop off is worth the dollars saved under the current salary system,

NFL needs to Double the rookie deal amounts for RBs for starters. Maybe only have half the amount of a veteran RB deal count against the cap? (I don’t know… spitballing here).

Or how about limiting a rookie RBs first contract to only a 3 year deal with no option for either team or player. Have to renegotiate at that point. The average RB who “makes it” would then only have to suffer 2 straight years of the tag and then at age 25-26 still get to experience real FA while they still have something left in the tank.