The 2016 Dodgers Starting Rotation

[Villain]

It's not as bad without Greinke as some people think.

Clayton Kershaw (L)
Scott Kazmir (L)
Brett Anderson (L)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (L)
Alex Wood (L)
Kenta Maeda
Brandon McCarthy

There's like 20 other guys in the minors who I won't be surprised if they start a few games, too. A few off the top of my head:

Mike Bolsinger
Zach Lee
Carlos Frias
Julio Urias (L)
Jose De Leon
Brandon Beachy
Frankie Montas

 

[Smed55]

It's not as bad without Greinke as some people think.

Clayton Kershaw (L)
Scott Kazmir (L)
Brett Anderson (L)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (L)







Alex Wood (L)
Kenta Maeda
Brandon McCarthy

There's like 20 other guys in the minors who I won't be surprised if they start a few games, too. A few off the top of my head:

Mik Bolsinger
Zach Lee
Carlos Frias
Julio Urias (L)
Jose De Leon
Brandon Beachy
Frankie Montas

And therein lies the problem with Villians thinking! He says our rotation isn't as bad without Greinke as some may think. We do have depth, but there are a ton of question marks! Yes all, most, or even some of these guys might workout, but they are guys that are big if's? We could have a better staff than last year, but it's pretty scetchy based on These guys past!

So Villian thinks our rotation is fine, yet turns around and says he "wouldn't be surprised" if 20 other guys from the minors makes a start here and there. If that is the case that would mean that our top 7 starters are hurt or not getting the job done?

 

[Villain]

Starters for the 2015 Dodgers, by IP, listed with their respective FanGraphs WAR values:

Kershaw, 232.2 - 8.6 WAR
Greinke, 222.2 - 5.9 WAR
Anderson, 180.1 - 1.7 WAR
Bolsinger, 109.1 - 1.2 WAR
Frias, 71.1 - 0.4 WAR
Wood, 70.1 - 0.6 WAR
Latos, 23.1 - 0.3 WAR
McCarthy, 23.0 - -0.3 WAR

There's more (Lee, Baker, etc) that I won't bother listing. You see the stats here.

So let's take the time to think about how the Dodgers plan on replacing 222.2 of 5.9 WAR pitching that Greinke is going to try to bring to Arizona. Well, let's start by penciling in a 2016 rotation of the 6 guys we can reasonably expect to see the most starts from:

1. Clayton Kershaw - Over 7 WAR for 4 of the last 5 years. We're not worried here.
2. Scott Kazmir - 2013 in Cleveland 158 IP and 2.4 WAR. 2014 with A's he threw 190 IP for 3.2 WAR. 2015 between A's and Astros 183 IP for 2.7 WAR.
3. Brett Anderson - I think we can agree if he's healthy, he'll repeat last year's results.
4. Alex Wood - 2.6 WAR in 2014 and 2015 (total). 170 IP in 2014, 183 IP last year.
5. Hyun-Jin Ryu - 2013 192 IP and 3.6 WAR. 2014 152 IP and 3.8 WAR. They say he'll be healthy on Opening Day.
6. Kenta Maeda - He was very good in Japan, but obviously no MLB stats to base a guess upon.

Based on the past results, what can we speculate for next year if these guys are healthy and eyeball them pitch to their past results? Since it's Spring, let's be optimistic.

1. Kershaw - 220 IP - 7.5 WAR
2. Kazmir - 190 IP - 3.2 WAR
3. Anderson - 190 IP - 2.0 WAR
4. Wood - 185 IP - 2.6 WAR
5. Ryu - 175 IP - 3.8 WAR
6. Maeda - 160 IP - 1.5 WAR (This is a wild-ass guess with the idea he'll be passable but not great)

Behind Kershaw in 2015, the rest of the guys I listed combined for about 9.8 WAR. My rosey-eyed speculation, which is banking on a healthy and productive Ryu, has the rest of the rotation behind Kershaw combining for 13.1 WAR. I agree that is a pretty ridiculous number, but it illustrates the idea that the Dodgers are filling the Greinke void with a staff that is less top-heavy and more consistent in production from 2-6. Gone are the days of back to back "automatics" followed by a 3-5 days of various degrees of finger crossing. No more Bolsinger as the #4 and Frias as the #5. Those two are now buried in AAA behind much better pitchers.

If you go to the FanGraphs depth chart projections (made by advanced algorithms, not my imagination), you get more conservative numbers than the ones I spit-balled. Before you point to those small numbers and laugh at my wild guesses, keep in mind that despite the smaller figures, FanGraphs has the Dodger starting rotation with the highest projected WAR total in baseball. See the rankings here. If that sounds outrageous, well I'll remind you that the Dodgers starters had the 2nd highest WAR in 2015.

Point? The 2016 Dodgers won't be in the basement of the NL West crying about the glory days of Zack Greinke. This is a solid staff with plenty of depth which should be expected to compete for a 5th straight NL West Championship.

 

[Villain]

Total starting pitchers used by the Dodgers:
2015: 16*
2014: 12*
2013: 11*
2012: 9*
2011: 9
2010: 10
2009: 12*
2008: 11*

*NL West Champions.
-----------------------------
Some notes to ponder:

Over 162 games, if you have 5 starters throwing 6 innings every time out, that's 194.4 innings each. Only 30 starters in all of baseball managed to throw more than 194.4 innings last season. None of them were on the 2015 Mets, who had the most IP by starters in the NL. (Colon was very close, 194.2)

Also, that would be 972 innings pitched for the season - only 6 teams had starting rotations manage to accomplish that feat in 2015 (White Sox, Mets, Astros, Cardinals, Indians, Dodgers - in that order). Yes, that includes those goofy double-headers where Yimi Garcia or whoever went out as a starter for one inning.

 

[Villain]

Kenta Maeda ready for challenge

 

[Villain]

Dodgers Digest / Alex Wood Was Playing Hurt Last Season

Hopefully this means he's not hurt now and will pitch better in 2016.

Looking more and more likely to have Opening Day starting five of Kershaw, Maeda, Wood, Kazmir, and Anderson. Reports on Ryu say that they are taking their sweet time with him. That gives a little extra rope to Maeda and Wood to prove themselves worthy early on.

 

[Villain]

Dodgers Digest / Alex Wood Was Playing Hurt Last Season

Hopefully this means he's not hurt now and will pitch better in 2016.

Looking more and more likely to have Opening Day starting five of Kershaw, Maeda, Wood, Kazmir, and Anderson. Reports on Ryu say that they are taking their sweet time with him. That gives a little extra rope to Maeda and Wood to prove themselves worthy early on.

More: Alex Wood healthy, confident after 2015 bone bruise

 

[dredinis21]

Isn't Anderson out 3-5 months for back surgery? Count him out.

 

[Smed55]

Isn't Anderson out 3-5 months for back surgery? Count him out.

And that's exactly why I had question marks about our rotation. We have 1 stud pitcher now that Greinke is gone, and a lot of decent pitchers, that have a history of injuries, and another guy from Japan that we don't know if he can even pitch against major leaguers????

It's not being negative, those are legitimate concerns, yet there are some fans on here that believe we are in good shape. We may still be, but like I said it's a BIG question mark right now?

 

[dredinis21]

And that's exactly why I had question marks about our rotation. We have 1 stud pitcher now that Greinke is gone, and a lot of decent pitchers, that have a history of injuries, and another guy from Japan that we don't know if he can even pitch against major leaguers????

It's not being negative, those are legitimate concerns, yet there are some fans on here that believe we are in good shape. We may still be, but like I said it's a BIG question mark right now?

Villain has laid out the WAR for these pitchers and the argument that this pitching staff as a whole may be better then last season's. Until you guys become only 5 deep, I don't see it as much as a concern, although as a Giants fan, I would be lying if I weren't giddy at your pant-shittery.

 

[Villain]

Villain has laid out the WAR for these pitchers and the argument that this pitching staff as a whole may be better then last season's. Until you guys become only 5 deep, I don't see it as much as a concern, although as a Giants fan, I would be lying if I weren't giddy at your pant-shittery.

Probably not "better" but I was rather getting at the idea that this group doesn't stand to be demonstrably worse.

Keep in mind that I didn't even include the young guns like Zach Lee (he's not to be written off after one bad MLB start), Julio Urias, Jose De Leon, and so on. I also didn't factor in the eventual contributions of excellent "next-man-up" arms like Mike Bolsinger and hopefully Brandon Beachy (I really root for that guy).

Mike Bolsinger was a pleasant surprise as the "4th" starter last year. With Anderson looking to recover from surgery, he has the opportunity to be a 5th starter until Ryu becomes available in May. Wood's position in the rotation becomes less tenuous in the mean time.

This roster has fantastic depth and the farm system occasionally looks like an embarrassment of riches. Urias, De Leon, and Cotton are not that far away from MLB readiness. Urias' only remaining question mark is workload, as his fastball and change-up are widely considered to be elite by MLB standards (especially the change up, his best pitch).

 

[Villain]

So here's how the depth is playing out in early spring:

1. Kershaw
2. Kazmir
3. Maeda
4. Wood
5. ??????

Realistic possibilities for number 5:

Zack Lee
Mike Bolsinger
Brandon Beachy

Long shots:

Julio Urias (wouldn't that be fun?)
Jose De Leon
Jharel Cotton
Carlos Frias (let's be real, he's destined for relief)
Chris Anderson (same as Frias)
Ross Stripling

===============

That 5 spot is only up for grabs until Ryu is available - some time in May.

 

[Smed55]

Villain has laid out the WAR for these pitchers and the argument that this pitching staff as a whole may be better then last season's. Until you guys become only 5 deep, I don't see it as much as a concern, although as a Giants fan, I would be lying if I weren't giddy at your pant-shittery.

I'm sure you are giddy, I would be too! as far as WAR while it's another stat to look at it, Im not one to carry it into a new season, especially with so many injury prone starters? Right now, Kershaw is the only proven factor, while Kazmir has been "decent" recently, it wasn't that long ago that he was almost out of baseball, and he is nowhere near the pitcher he was years ago, on top of an injury history? We do have some really good young possibilities, and some of the others are decent fill ins, but this isn't a core of starting pitchers I would want to pin my hopes on.
Depth is always a good thing, but quality depth is another thing. Been a Dodger fan for over 50 years, I've seen some dam good starting staffs and some decent ones, this one isn't one of them!

 

[duke1861]

De Leon looked sharp today. I understand its one game and its just ST, but he looked in control.

Just to clarify are we projected to have the following by July:

Montejas
Ryu
McCarthy
Anderson

Crazy! I hope these guys heal up fast and come back with their best stuff!

 

[Villain]

De Leon looked sharp today. I understand its one game and its just ST, but he looked in control.

Just to clarify are we projected to have the following by July:

Montejas
Ryu
McCarthy
Anderson

Crazy! I hope these guys heal up fast and come back with their best stuff!

Ryu is supposed to be with the club some time in May, and that's by design. They're purposely taking it slow.

McCarthy is more like July/August. All-Star Break would be the earliest.

Anderson they say 3-6 months so whatever that means. He had the same surgery in 2014 so you can always look back to then to see how his recovery went, for the record he threw 43.1 innings and had 2.91 ERA.

Montas they say 2-4 months, but he's still gotta do time in the minors. I wouldn't count on much from him except for a September call-up. His ETA to the majors is sooner if they use him as a closer so it just depends on what they want to do.

 

[HammerDown]

 

[Villain]

So here's how the depth is playing out in early spring:

1. Kershaw
2. Kazmir
3. Maeda
4. Wood
5. ??????

Realistic possibilities for number 5:

Zack Lee
Mike Bolsinger
Brandon Beachy

 

[duke1861]

Kazmir is becoming a concern. That is a poor fastball.

Scott Kazmir - Los Angeles Dodgers - 2016 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

 

[Villain]

Kazmir is becoming a concern. That is a poor fastball.

Scott Kazmir - Los Angeles Dodgers - 2016 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

Are you serious?

 

[Villain]

I'll go ahead and expand on my reaction.

Dodgers Digest / Your Annual Spring Training Stat Reminder

A reminder: Spring training records don't matter

Dodgers Digest / The Recent History of Dodgers Spring Hitting

Please don't take what happens in spring training too seriously

dodgers spring training stats don't matter - Google Search

========================

Okay, so with all that in mind, here's the take regarding Kazmir himself:

Scott Kazmir finds rhythm in 'B' game

"I was working on a couple pitches, but was just trying to get that catcher-pitcher relationship down where we were in sync and had a good rhythm going," Kazmir recalled.
....
Kazmir said he was able to throw his curveball for strikes and that his changeup was working for him. But what he was working on was less pitch selection and more building a rhtyhm with Grandal...
...
"With veterans you definitely give them a little bit more rope. With a guy that's proven and he's done it, time and time again," Roberts said. "There's definitely no concern right now, and he knows the adjustments he needs to make..."
...
Though his velocity was reportedly in the mid- to high-80s on his fastball, it is still spring training and Kazmir, who averaged 93.01 mph on his four-seam fastball in 2015 per Brooks Baseball, said the current speed readings are part of the process of getting ready for the regular season.


"I'm not trying to overthrow. I'm still trying to build up arm strength," Kazmir said. "That's something that comes. You don't try to let it go to much trying to get velocity. It's about repeating delivery right now."

-----

There. Can we put this one to bed, @duke1861 ?