Rumor: Baker Mayfield Gaining Steam to Be #1 Overall Pick

[Clayton]

Here's my question to you: How many teams have drafted a QB in the top 10 and actually had anything to show for it?
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Big Ben
Cam and Matt Ryan, but haven't won a SB.

Couldn't we do this same test with Running backs?

Fournette (2 playoff wins)
Gurley (nothing yet)
Zeke (nothing yet)
Trent Richardson (bust)
Darren McFadden (bust)
Adrian Peterson (1? playoff win)
Laidanian Lomlinson (55 yds/gm in the playoffs including receiving)
Cadillac Williams (bust)
Ricky Williams (meh)
Cedric Benson (bust)
Marshall Faulk (success but not with the team that drafted him)
Ki Jana Carter (bust)

 

[Across The Field]

Couldn't we do this same test with Running backs?

Fournette (2 playoff wins)
Gurley (nothing yet)
Zeke (nothing yet)
Trent Richardson (bust)
Adrian Peterson (1? playoff win)
Laidanian Lomlinson (zip)
Cadillac Williams (bust)
Cedric Benson (bust)
Marshall Faulk (success but not with the team that drafted him)
Ki Jana Carter (bust)

Sure we could, but we're not talking about apples to apples here. Saquon Barkley is being looked at in the same light Andrew Luck was as a QB. It's not like we're talking about taking Ronald Jones or Sony Michel at #1.

I can say without a doubt that Zeke and Gurley have dramatically changed the identity of the teams they are on. Zeke carried that offense on his back in 2016 and took Dallas from 4 wins to 13, and it was obvious last year how much better the offense was when he was in it.

Tomlinson was an enormous part of why San Diego was a regular playoff team while he was there. With him there, they won 11-14 games in 4 out of his final 6 seasons (2004-2009). Since he left in 2010, they haven't had more than 9 wins in a season. Rivers is still there but he hasn't had a weapon anything like LT.

AP had Minnesota winning and going to the playoffs half his years there despite having absolute trash at QB - 6 different QBs in 8 years.

 

[Tharvot]

The only knock to be had on taking RBs high in the draft is their durability, not their contribution to an offense.

If you get an elite RB, it dramatically changes how well your offense runs in the same way that having an elite QB does. The difference is that there tends to be a huge drop off in production from those elite RBs as they get into their 2nd and 3rd contracts due to the pounding they take whereas QBs can often stay relatively healthy their whole career.

If we were comparing apples to apples in terms of elite talents, it's a no brainer that you take the QB. But, this year we aren't. We're comparing an elite talent at RB vs what most people deem mediocre talents at QB so it's a pretty fair and even debate IMO.

 

[Across The Field]

The only knock to be had on taking RBs high in the draft is their durability, not their contribution to an offense.

If you get an elite RB, it dramatically changes how well your offense runs in the same way that having an elite QB does. The difference is that there tends to be a huge drop off in production from those elite RBs as they get into their 2nd and 3rd contracts due to the pounding they take whereas QBs can often stay relatively healthy their whole career.

If we were comparing apples to apples in terms of elite talents, it's a no brainer that you take the QB. But, this year we aren't. We're comparing an elite talent at RB vs what most people deem mediocre talents at QB so it's a pretty fair and even debate IMO.

This sums up my position perfectly. If Barkley was at Penn State still, you go QB more than likely. Or you try and trade out of #1. However, he's there. If Zeke could do in Dallas what he did with that lameduck Dak at QB, Barkley would do some amazing things in Cleveland with Tyrod.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

The only knock to be had on taking RBs high in the draft is their durability, not their contribution to an offense.

If you get an elite RB, it dramatically changes how well your offense runs in the same way that having an elite QB does. The difference is that there tends to be a huge drop off in production from those elite RBs as they get into their 2nd and 3rd contracts due to the pounding they take whereas QBs can often stay relatively healthy their whole career.

If we were comparing apples to apples in terms of elite talents, it's a no brainer that you take the QB. But, this year we aren't. We're comparing an elite talent at RB vs what most people deem mediocre talents at QB so it's a pretty fair and even debate IMO.

Well Said

There lies the issue as a Giants fan, and Ive never seen this fanbase so torn....Everyone seems to acknowledge Barkley can be great, maybe even all time great........But even if he is, what is his elite career window? At best, 6/7 years?

You take the right QB, that ceiling could be 12-15 years

But like you said, Barkley is far more a lock for a great career than any of the QB's in this particular draft

There lies the dilemma

 

[Tharvot]

Well Said

There lies the issue as a Giants fan, and Ive never seen this fanbase so torn....Everyone seems to acknowledge Barkley can be great, maybe even all time great........But even if he is, what is his elite career window? At best, 6/7 years?

You take the right QB, that ceiling could be 12-15 years

But like you said, Barkley is far more a lock for a great career than any of the QB's in this particular draft

There lies the dilemma

That's why I've been on team Barkley from the jump for the Browns at #1. We have a passable NFL QB now that could be used as a bridge to a young "franchise QB". OR, we can take that OK QB and load up talent around him and win now. If the Browns took Barkley and Chubb at 1 and 4, they would dramatically improve both sides of the ball and still have 3 second round picks to add depth.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

That's why I've been on team Barkley from the jump for the Browns at #1. We have a passable NFL QB now that could be used as a bridge to a young "franchise QB". OR, we can take that OK QB and load up talent around him and win now. If the Browns took Barkley and Chubb at 1 and 4, they would dramatically improve both sides of the ball and still have 3 second round picks to add depth.

I've also felt from day one Barkley to Cle at 1 was a no brainer, unless one QB absolutely blows the others away in their eyes, which doesn't at all seem the case

With the Browns assured of one of the QBs at 4, it makes too much sense

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I've also felt from day one Barkley to Cle at 1 was a no brainer, unless one QB absolutely blows the others away in their eyes, which doesn't at all seem the case

With the Browns assured of one of the QBs at 4, it makes too much sense

It's pretty much been all but leaked now that Darnold is the pick. Your Giants are getting Barkley methinks.

 

[Clayton]

Sure we could, but we're not talking about apples to apples here. Saquon Barkley is being looked at in the same light Andrew Luck was as a QB.

NFL Draft & Combine Profile - SAM DARNOLD | NFL.com

 

[Tharvot]

It's pretty much been all but leaked now that Darnold is the pick. Your Giants are getting Barkley methinks.

So it seems. I was less than blown away by Darnold this past season, but he does seem to be the safest of the QB choices.

While I'd prefer Barkley and Chubb, if they went Darnold and Chubb I'd be plenty happy still...fits will be thrown if they trade out of 4.

 

[Tharvot]

NFL Draft & Combine Profile - SAM DARNOLD | NFL.com

So getting Darnold and Chubb means getting 2 pro-bowl caliber players. I'll take that.

 

[Clayton]

So getting Darnold and Chubb means getting 2 pro-bowl caliber players. I'll take that.

I actually don't fully agree with the Darnold/Andrew Luck comparison but Darnold IS highly rated among the scouting community in the NFL. I like the 'cow on ice' description for his footwork but most people are looking at who he will be and not who he was.

Darnold and Mayfield are two of the three top picks no matter what happens in the draft process. There are quality NFL QB prospects.

I also think Chubb has a chance of going before Barkley whether its the Giants, Browns or Broncos. Pass Rusher is also more valued than RB although I do think the Browns are the least likely of those 3.

 

[shopson67]

I'm not saying it has to be a generational talent at QB, I'm saying you have to be able to look at them and truly believe they can become (at least) a very good starter to take them at #1. There's little doubt Barkley can become one of, if not THE, best RB in the NFL very quickly, and he's the sort of weapon that can help even a decent QB look better and win.

Brady has won 2 recently. Foles won 1, RW won 1, but we saw Case Keenum almost get there, as well. Going back to 2000, there have been 11 Super Bowls won by non-first round QBs.

Here's my question to you: How many teams have drafted a QB in the top 10 and actually had anything to show for it?
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Big Ben
Cam and Matt Ryan, but haven't won a SB

This is going back 20+ years. It's nice that Stafford and Rivers put up good numbers, but they've never even sniffed a SB. Luck would be elite if he wasn't hurt, but he may never fully return. Winston and Mariotta look decent but not elite by any means. Now, on the flipside:

Gabbart, Locker, RG3, Tannehill, Bradford, Jamarcus, Leinart, VY, Cutler, Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington - haven't done jack shit, and most of them are already out of the league and have been for years. Now, it's a combination of things, but they were all top 10 picks and accomplished nothing. In all honesty, most of these guys were better prospects than what is coming out this year, too.

What is the alternative? Play without a QB? There are only so many game managing back-ups to go around. Don't draft any QBs until day 3 (results will be much worse, with the occasional outlier)?

Bradford and RG3 were both injury victims. I wouldn't include Alex with the rest there either.

Wentz and Goff have their teams pretty happy. Cam Newton carried his team to the Super Bowl. Falcons are plenty happy with Matt Ryan. To bump your top 10 out a bit, Roethlisberger has won two Super Bowls, and Flacco won one. I'm sure the Falcons were happy with Vick (on the field), as was Cinci (until he wanted out) and later Arizona with Carson Palmer.

 

[shopson67]

I actually don't fully agree with the Darnold/Andrew Luck comparison but Darnold IS highly rated among the scouting community in the NFL. I like the 'cow on ice' description for his footwork but most people are looking at who he will be and not who he was.

Darnold and Mayfield are two of the three top picks no matter what happens in the draft process. There are quality NFL QB prospects.

I also think Chubb has a chance of going before Barkley whether its the Giants, Browns or Broncos. Pass Rusher is also more valued than RB although I do think the Browns are the least likely of those 3.

I've seen Darnold compared to Luck and Bortles. The truth is somewhere in between.

 

[Clayton]

I've seen Darnold compared to Luck and Bortles. The truth is somewhere in between.

It is. He played like Bortles in college but could be Luck in the NFL.

I like Jameis Winston as a comparison. He is doing NFL things right now but he is pretty careless with the ball and some of his mechanics, footwork, release point, etc. Darnold is more athletic than Winston but probably won't be running in the NFL.

Unlike Winston, Darnold might get to sit for 6-10 games before playing. I doubt the team that drafts him will have a Mike Evans on their roster, though.

 

[shopson67]

It is. He played like Bortles in college but could be Luck in the NFL.

I like Jameis Winston as a comparison. He is doing NFL things right now but he is pretty careless with the ball and some of his mechanics, footwork, release point, etc. Darnold is more athletic than Winston but probably won't be running in the NFL.

Unlike Winston, Darnold might get to sit for 6-10 games before playing. I doubt the team that drafts him will have a Mike Evans on their roster, though.

Well, if Cleveland drafts him he has Landry and Gordon, Giants have Odell, Broncos have Thomas and Sanders, the Jets have nyet and the Bills are hurting also.

 

[Across The Field]

What is the alternative? Play without a QB? There are only so many game managing back-ups to go around. Don't draft any QBs until day 3 (results will be much worse, with the occasional outlier)?

Bradford and RG3 were both injury victims. I wouldn't include Alex with the rest there either.

Wentz and Goff have their teams pretty happy. Cam Newton carried his team to the Super Bowl. Falcons are plenty happy with Matt Ryan. To bump your top 10 out a bit, Roethlisberger has won two Super Bowls, and Flacco won one. I'm sure the Falcons were happy with Vick (on the field), as was Cinci (until he wanted out) and later Arizona with Carson Palmer.

It's not about playing without a QB. It's about investing the right picks in the right ways. I see no QB that can offer anything better than Tyrod this year, and he is only 28 years old with minimal injuries in his history, so there's nothing that says he can't be a pretty good QB, especially when you consider he really didn't have that great of weapons at his disposal in Buffalo.

Even when healthy, Bradford has never come close to living up to being the #1 overall pick. RG3 lost it mentally. Even when he got healthy in all of his other stops, he hasn't been able to do anything. Alex really hasn't ever accomplished anything. Wentz and Goff look very good. Newton is solid but inconsistent. Matt Ryan is a better prospect than what we see this year, and Ben is a significantly better prospect. Flacco is possibly the worst starting QB in the NFL. He had one decent run in the playoffs and has statistically been one of the worst QBs in the league since then. Them winning, much like in 2000, was due to an ultra elite defense.

You're bringing up several stud QB prospects that were easy calls to make in the top 5-10 picks. The guys in this years class don't seem to be at that level. Of course several of them could end up working out, but there is no Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, or Big Ben as a prospect this year.

 

[Across The Field]

It is. He played like Bortles in college but could be Luck in the NFL.

I like Jameis Winston as a comparison. He is doing NFL things right now but he is pretty careless with the ball and some of his mechanics, footwork, release point, etc. Darnold is more athletic than Winston but probably won't be running in the NFL.

Unlike Winston, Darnold might get to sit for 6-10 games before playing. I doubt the team that drafts him will have a Mike Evans on their roster, though.

If Darnold goes to CLE or NYG, he'll have a WR at his disposal that's arguably just as good in Josh Gordon or OBJ.

 

[flyerhawk]

Baker Mayfield Should Be the Top Pick in the 2018 Draft

I honestly don't get how anyone thinks that Allen should be drafted so high and why Mayfield isn't the consensus No. 1 overall QB.

The closest thing to a legitimate criticism of Mayfield is that he plays in an Air Raid system which allows him to throw to wide open receivers. But as Sherman says in that article (IMO, more teams should run offenses in which the receivers get so open that you can’t even tell whether the QB is good.)

IOW, are we really arguing that Mayfield was able to put up his beyond Madden numbers because of the system?

Just want to remind people that there were people saying that Mayfield was going to be really good well before he was drafted.

 

[Duke of Douchington]

Just want to remind people that there were people saying that Mayfield was going to be really good well before he was drafted.

Whoa. You said the #1 overall pick would be good?

Earth shattering.