Rumor: Baker Mayfield Gaining Steam to Be #1 Overall Pick

[Across The Field]

If the Browns don't draft a QB in the first, they'll (still) be a laughing stock...

The rest of that top 10? Includes 3 #1s, a #2 and a #3, among others. Brees was picked 32nd. Brady is the ultimate exception. Both Brees and Wilson fell in the draft due to their height (obviously not as much of a problem now, with Baker likely an early 1st rounder). Cousins is the lone true outlier IMO of those 10 (and I liked him in that draft).

You also saw a late 3rd rounder win the SB by beating an UDFA QB in the NFC Title game. Again, picking a QB at #1 means nothing for job security if he's not the right guy. If he sucks, jobs will be lost within a couple years regardless. Taking the BPA is what wins Super Bowls. If the BPA is indeed a QB, you take him. If you don't see any of the QBs available as being worthy of the #1 overall pick (very fair this year), you take the BPA.

We've seen the consequences of taking a non-elite QB prospect at an elite draft slot time and time again in recent years. Look what it did to Jacksonville, Oakland, Tennessee, Minnesota, Miami, the Rams, etc. When there are elite prospects available that can help you win now, you take them IMO. Drafting a QB at #1 if you don't truly think you can turn them into an elite QB is just stupid. 4 of the last 5 Super Bowl champs won with no better than 3rd rounders, and the one first rounder that won was the shell of Peyton Manning, who looked like shit and was carried by his elite supporting cast.

 

[shopson67]

You also saw a late 3rd rounder win the SB by beating an UDFA QB in the NFC Title game. Again, picking a QB at #1 means nothing for job security if he's not the right guy. If he sucks, jobs will be lost within a couple years regardless. Taking the BPA is what wins Super Bowls. If the BPA is indeed a QB, you take him. If you don't see any of the QBs available as being worthy of the #1 overall pick (very fair this year), you take the BPA.

We've seen the consequences of taking a non-elite QB prospect at an elite draft slot time and time again in recent years. Look what it did to Jacksonville, Oakland, Tennessee, Minnesota, Miami, the Rams, etc. When there are elite prospects available that can help you win now, you take them IMO. Drafting a QB at #1 if you don't truly think you can turn them into an elite QB is just stupid. 4 of the last 5 Super Bowl champs won with no better than 3rd rounders, and the one first rounder that won was the shell of Peyton Manning, who looked like shit and was carried by his elite supporting cast.

Again, if you wait for the absolute cream of the crop (and are still bad enough to be in position to draft them), you likely won't get the opportunity as you would already be out of a job for still being at the bottom of the league.

All of these claims of Super Bowls won by later picks are skewed by the ultimate outlier, Tom Brady.

 

[CaptainStubing]

dorsey is on record this week saying no one has given him a 'legitimate' offer for the #1 overall pick.

 

[mcnabb7542]

If the Browns owner had half a brain, (and we know he doesn't) if that staff takes Mayfield number 1 they all should be fired!

 

[CaptainStubing]

for some reason, i have a bad feeling about Mayfield... he strikes me as possibly the next Jay Cutler.

 

[Tharvot]

Again, if you wait for the absolute cream of the crop (and are still bad enough to be in position to draft them), you likely won't get the opportunity as you would already be out of a job for still being at the bottom of the league.

All of these claims of Super Bowls won by later picks are skewed by the ultimate outlier, Tom Brady.

Super Bowl QBs for the past decade:

*Tom Brady - 6th round draft pick
*Nick Foles - 3rd round draft pick
Matt Ryan - 1st round, 3rd overall
Cam Newton - 1st round, 1st overall
*Peyton Manning - 1st round, 1st overall
*Russell Wilson - 3rd round draft pick
*Joe Flacco - 1st round, 18th overall
Colin Kaepernick - 2nd round draft pick
*Eli Manning - 1st round, 1st overall
*Aaron Rodgers - 1st round, 24th overall
*Ben Roethlisberger - 1st round, 11th overall
*Drew Brees - 2nd round draft pick
*Kurt Warner - undrafted free agent

* - super bowl champion

Of the 13 different QBs that have led their teams to super bowl appearances in the last decade, 7 were first rounders and 6 were second round or later. Of the first round QBs, 4 were taken in the top 3 while 2 were taken in the second half of round 1. Of the QBs listed, 5 taken in the 2nd round or later have won super bowls while 5 first rounders have won super bowls.

 

[Tharvot]

If the Browns owner had half a brain, (and we know he doesn't) if that staff takes Mayfield number 1 they all should be fired!

What QB is hands down better?

for some reason, i have a bad feeling about Mayfield... he strikes me as possibly the next Jay Cutler.

Their personalities seem to be polar opposites.

 

[Across The Field]

Again, if you wait for the absolute cream of the crop (and are still bad enough to be in position to draft them), you likely won't get the opportunity as you would already be out of a job for still being at the bottom of the league.

All of these claims of Super Bowls won by later picks are skewed by the ultimate outlier, Tom Brady.

I'm not saying it has to be a generational talent at QB, I'm saying you have to be able to look at them and truly believe they can become (at least) a very good starter to take them at #1. There's little doubt Barkley can become one of, if not THE, best RB in the NFL very quickly, and he's the sort of weapon that can help even a decent QB look better and win.

Brady has won 2 recently. Foles won 1, RW won 1, but we saw Case Keenum almost get there, as well. Going back to 2000, there have been 11 Super Bowls won by non-first round QBs.

Here's my question to you: How many teams have drafted a QB in the top 10 and actually had anything to show for it?
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Big Ben
Cam and Matt Ryan, but haven't won a SB

This is going back 20+ years. It's nice that Stafford and Rivers put up good numbers, but they've never even sniffed a SB. Luck would be elite if he wasn't hurt, but he may never fully return. Winston and Mariotta look decent but not elite by any means. Now, on the flipside:

Gabbart, Locker, RG3, Tannehill, Bradford, Jamarcus, Leinart, VY, Cutler, Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington - haven't done jack shit, and most of them are already out of the league and have been for years. Now, it's a combination of things, but they were all top 10 picks and accomplished nothing. In all honesty, most of these guys were better prospects than what is coming out this year, too.

 

[flyerhawk]

What QB is hands down better?



Their personalities seem to be polar opposites.

Some of the criticisms of Mayfield seem really strange.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Some of the criticisms of Mayfield seem really strange.

Very, especially considering Josh Rosen is far more Johnny Manziel than Baker is, right down to the financial background of his family

 

[flyerhawk]

Very, especially considering Josh Rosen is far more Johnny Manziel than Baker is, right down to the financial background of his family

Yeah. Mayfield is a guy with a perpetual chip on his shoulder.

He's far more like Tom Brady than Manziel.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Yeah. Mayfield is a guy with a perpetual chip on his shoulder.

He's far more like Tom Brady than Manziel.

Im a big time fan, my only small concern is the wide open offensive systems in that Big 12 typically dont translate well to the tight windows of the NFL

But I think he can be really different, I think a Mason Rudolph is a guy that will be exposed in the NFL as a Big 12 product

 

[flyerhawk]

Im a big time fan, my only small concern is the wide open offensive systems in that Big 12 typically dont translate well to the tight windows of the NFL

But I think he can be really different, I think a Mason Rudolph is a guy that will be exposed in the NFL as a Big 12 product

I agree that he isn't going to seamlessly translate to the NFL. HOWEVER, his numbers at Oklahoma were just ridiculous.

 

[Tharvot]

Im a big time fan, my only small concern is the wide open offensive systems in that Big 12 typically dont translate well to the tight windows of the NFL

But I think he can be really different, I think a Mason Rudolph is a guy that will be exposed in the NFL as a Big 12 product

Agreed on Mason, absolutely. The Okie St offense stalled out big time whenever they ran up against a defense that was even 1/2 way decent. Mayfield's offense was unstoppable even against the best defenses in CFB.

What I like most about Mayfield is his intelligence on the field. He reportedly aced both the wonderlic and the team interviews where you're asked to break down and remember plays while fielding all sorts of other nonsense questions meant to distract you. He's got the physical tools to be an NFL QB and apparently he's really game smart. The only thing he's lacking is a little height.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Agreed on Mason, absolutely. The Okie St offense stalled out big time whenever they ran up against a defense that was even 1/2 way decent. Mayfield's offense was unstoppable even against the best defenses in CFB.

What I like most about Mayfield is his intelligence on the field. He reportedly aced both the wonderlic and the team interviews where you're asked to break down and remember plays while fielding all sorts of other nonsense questions meant to distract you. He's got the physical tools to be an NFL QB and apparently he's really game smart. The only thing he's lacking is a little height.

I watched that Russel Wilson thing last night with each of the QB's....I dont like Rudolphs' entire demeanor, he's a guy I think is a wasted 2nd round pick waiting to happen

 

[Scapegoat]

Im a big time fan, my only small concern is the wide open offensive systems in that Big 12 typically dont translate well to the tight windows of the NFL

But I think he can be really different, I think a Mason Rudolph is a guy that will be exposed in the NFL as a Big 12 product

Mason reminds me of Landry Jones. He has the tools but not a great feel for the game.

 

[CaptainStubing]

Their personalities seem to be polar opposites.

mayfield's personality is more like phillip rivers. My comparison to jay cutler is that cutler never really lived up to his potential and was just a mediocre NFL qb that never really accomplished anything... i kind of feel like that is Mayfield's fate as well. he may bounce around the league for some years and make quite a few starts ... i'm just not sure he's ever going to be very good...

 

[Tharvot]

mayfield's personality is more like phillip rivers. My comparison to jay cutler is that cutler never really lived up to his potential and was just a mediocre NFL qb that never really accomplished anything... i kind of feel like that is Mayfield's fate as well. he may bounce around the league for some years and make quite a few starts ... i'm just not sure he's ever going to be very good...

Part of Cutler's problem (or at least his perception) was that he just moped around and complained all the time. I'm not sure he's ever had the backing of his teammates.

On the flip side, Mayfield is nothing if not a fiery/energetic competitor. His teammates at OU would have stood in front of a bus for him.

Does that mean he will be a great pro? No, of course not. I just don't understand the comparison at all.

If anything, Mayfield should be compared to Russel Wilson. Shorter guy that is a leader, accurate with the ball, and elusive.

 

[CaptainStubing]

Part of Cutler's problem (or at least his perception) was that he just moped around and complained all the time. I'm not sure he's ever had the backing of his teammates.

On the flip side, Mayfield is nothing if not a fiery/energetic competitor. His teammates at OU would have stood in front of a bus for him.

Does that mean he will be a great pro? No, of course not. I just don't understand the comparison at all.

If anything, Mayfield should be compared to Russel Wilson. Shorter guy that is a leader, accurate with the ball, and elusive.

if we're just talking personality only and not skills as a QB on the field in the NFL, mayfield is NOT like cutler. i agree. However, i don't think mayfields personality is anything like russel wilson. i wouldn't compare those 2 ever. Mayfield is more like phillip rivers. Passionate, cocky, aggressive, and fiery.

the unfortunate part of that type of personality is that it sometimes doesn't fly in the pros. college kids eat that shit up but in the pros, it can rub guys the wrong way. not sure phillip rivers has ever been 'loved' by his teammates even though he is talented.

 

[Tharvot]

if we're just talking personality only and not skills as a QB on the field in the NFL, mayfield is NOT like cutler. i agree. However, i don't think mayfields personality is anything like russel wilson. i wouldn't compare those 2 ever. Mayfield is more like phillip rivers. Passionate, cocky, aggressive, and fiery.

the unfortunate part of that type of personality is that it sometimes doesn't fly in the pros. college kids eat that shit up but in the pros, it can rub guys the wrong way. not sure phillip rivers has ever been 'loved' by his teammates even though he is talented.

I was talking Wilson for skillset/leadership qualities.

Comps to Rivers might be accurate personality wise. Hopefully if the browns take him, he has a career similar to rivers'