Predict the Future

[Villain]

It's October. It's round one of the playoffs. You have 25 roster spots to fill. Assume Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier are healthy.

Who do you take with you to the NLDS?

 

[Villain]

My picks:

Starting Pitchers:
1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Zack Greinke
3. Hyun-Jin Ryu
4. Ricky Nolasco

Infield Starters:
5. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
6. Mark Ellis, 2B
7. Hanley Ramirez, SS
8. Juan Uribe, 3B

Catchers:
9. A.J. Ellis
10. Tim Federowicz (back-up)

Outfielders:
11. Yasiel Puig
12. Matt Kemp
13. Andre Ethier
14. Carl Crawford

Bench Reserves:
15. Michael Young, INF
16. Nick Punto, INF
17. Skip Schumaker, 2B, OF
18. Scott Van Slyke, 1B, OF
19. Dee Gordon, SS

Bullpen:
20. Chris Withrow
21. Kenley Jansen
22. Paco Rodriguez
23. JP Howell
24. Ronald Belisario
25. Brian Wilson


Apologies to Jerry Hairston, Jr.

 

[Villain]

Remember, you can take anyone who is on the 40-man roster and has been with the organization since August 31.

That means you can take any organizational player from any level as long as you clear a 40-man spot for them (by way of injury - so that includes 40-man spots of Beckett, Billingsley, Elbert, etc - anyone who can be put on 60-day DL) as long as they aren't new since Sept.

Also, no requirement to take guys with guaranteed contracts (League, etc).

 

[Silas]

I would take everyone you selected except I'd take Hairston, Jr. In lieu of Gordon.

 

[Villain]

I would take everyone you selected except I'd take Hairston, Jr. In lieu of Gordon.

I wouldn't be surprised if Mattingly did that, but why do you prefer Hairston to Gordon?

 

[Silas]

At this point in the season Dee Gordon is essentially a pinch runner. I recognize that Gordon's speed is a nice weapon to have, but, in the playoffs, I am going to guess that instances when his primary skill is going to be used will arise infrequently.

Even assuming Crawford and Ethier are healthy, either one could aggravate their injuries which would cause Van Slyke to be pressed into service. Van Slyke is also likely to start against LHP's. So, in either scenario having Hairston, Jr. available to come off the bench from the right side is, IMO, my opinion more valuable to the Dodgers than Gordon's speed.

Additionally, I like the fact that Hairston, Jr. is an experienced playoff vet as opposed to Gordon.

 

[Villain]

At this point in the season Dee Gordon is essentially a pinch runner. I recognize that Gordon's speed is a nice weapon to have, but, in the playoffs, I am going to guess that instances when his primary skill is going to be used will arise infrequently.

You see, I think the exact opposite. Having an elite pinch runner in the playoffs is extremely valuable.

Even assuming Crawford and Ethier are healthy, either one could aggravate their injuries which would cause Van Slyke to be pressed into service. Van Slyke is also likely to start against LHP's. So, in either scenario having Hairston, Jr. available to come off the bench from the right side is, IMO, my opinion more valuable to the Dodgers than Gordon's speed.

Look at the rest of the Dodger's bench that you agreed to having, and let's break down a few of these scenarios.

LH Starter, you want to platoon both lefty OFers? I can dig that. So that gives you a line-up like

1. Puig 2. M. Ellis 3. Gonzalez 4. Ramirez 5. Kemp 6. Uribe 7. Van Slyke 8. A.J. Ellis 9. Pitcher.

So that leaves you a bench of: Ethier (L), Crawford (L), Schumaker (L), Punto (S), Young (R), Federowicz (R) and either Hairston or Gordon.

Honestly, I'm not seeing a huge need for righties off the bench. If you need a righty, you can just leave the hitter in the game.

Additionally, I like the fact that Hairston, Jr. is an experienced playoff vet as opposed to Gordon.

First off, the Dodgers aren't short on playoff experience.

Young - played in 2 WS
Uribe - won 2 WS
Schumaker - won 1 WS
Wilson - won 1 WS
Kemp, Ethier, Kershaw, etc (basically anyone who's been on the team since 2008) - 2 NLCS
Carl Crawford - played in 1 WS
Nick Punto - won 1 WS

There might be more, but I think you get my point.

As to the whole "playoff experience" notion in general - it really doesn't mean much to me, especially if it's just a role-player like Jerry Hairston. Honestly this is a guy who's job it's been to give better players days off. His value is as a replacement player when a regular gets hurt or needs a day off. Assuming everyone is healthy, he really doesn't have a role on this club.

As a pinch hitter, he isn't even very good. On a night when we don't see an extreme platoon, look where he is on the bench depth:

Assume Donnie started Kemp, Puig, and Crawford and he's pinch hitting for Ryu in the 7th and we need a righty to face a lefty pitcher. I rank the bench (with Hairston) like this:

1. Van Slyke 2. Young 3. Hairston 4. Punto 5. Ethier 6. Schumaker. (If Fed-Ex was to be considered, I'd rank him about Punto - but we all know backup catchers are just for insurance)

So that's two guys ahead of him and probably only two innings left of baseball. What are the odds that you'll need all three righties to pinch hit?

I'd rather take my chances with just the two righties on the bench and one switch hitter, especially since it allows me to have Dee Gordon to pinch run in a high-pressure inning. I don't want to be in the 8th or 9th inning of a tied ball game, have someone like A-Gone, AJ Ellis, or SVS lead off an inning with a double, and then be too slow to score on a single.

And 2nd off, "Playoff Experience" doesn't really mean much in the case of a role player who's closer to 40 than 30. He who was also a role-player when he was in the playoffs. AKA - didn't do much.


Give me those wheels.

 

[Villain]

Also, there's the fact that Jerry Hairston Jr. - as much as I love the guy - is not a very good pinch hitter. Dodgers' have an atrocious bench.

 

[LASports96]

Jerry Hairston should NOT be on the playoff roster, what does he bring to the table? At least Gordon can run and even hit a little bit better

 

[Villain]

Jerry Hairston should NOT be on the playoff roster, what does he bring to the table? At least Gordon can run and even hit a little bit better

Exactly my thinking - especially with Michael Young on the bench. Hairston is not only redundant, but obsolete as well.

 

[Silas]

Well, as to Gordon v. Hairston, we will have to see how things play out. I don't expect the Dodgers to carry Gordon on the NLDS Roster as I have a feeling they will view Gordon's potential contribution to be minimal and I further suspect they believe Hairston can do at least two things that Gordon does not do well. Gordon runs like a deer, but the kid can't hit or field.

Now, I realize Hairston has reached the point where he doesn't hit a lot and isn't a GG fielder, but at least he has something to offer in those areas that Gordon lacks. Plus he plays the infield and outfield which offers a lot more flexibility than Gordon.

Gordon is a sweet kid, but he just isn't prime time material.

 

[Villain]

Hairston doesn't really hit, though.

As to fielding, he won't be doing that if everyone is healthy.

 

[shopson67]

Not that there's any good options, but do they need another lefty out of the bullpen?

 

[LASports96]

I heard somebody else say this the other day and it's pretty true..

Jerry Hairston is a guy that is useful in the regular season sorta, because he can play everywhere, but in the playoffs he's useless because he'll be a straight pinch hitter and he can't hit

 

[LASports96]

Not that there's any good options, but do they need another lefty out of the bullpen?

2 lefties is enough (Rodriguez, Howell)

 

[Villain]

Not that there's any good options, but do they need another lefty out of the bullpen?

Not really. Garcia and Capuano are your only real options. I'd pass on both. Having both Paco and JP is a luxury already. 3 is overkill.

 

[sublime4eva]

My picks:

Starting Pitchers:
1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Zack Greinke
3. Hyun-Jin Ryu
4. Ricky Nolasco

Infield Starters:
5. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
6. Mark Ellis, 2B
7. Hanley Ramirez, SS
8. Juan Uribe, 3B

Catchers:
9. A.J. Ellis
10. Tim Federowicz (back-up)

Outfielders:
11. Yasiel Puig
12. Matt Kemp
13. Andre Ethier
14. Carl Crawford

Bench Reserves:
15. Michael Young, INF
16. Nick Punto, INF
17. Skip Schumaker, 2B, OF
18. Scott Van Slyke, 1B, OF
19. Dee Gordon, SS

Bullpen:
20. Chris Withrow
21. Kenley Jansen
22. Paco Rodriguez
23. JP Howell
24. Ronald Belisario
25. Brian Wilson


Apologies to Jerry Hairston, Jr.

That sounds about right....

 

[ksudodger]

Only thing I see that I might change is having someone like Capuano or even Volquez in the bullpen as a long reliever unless the plan is essentially to have Withrow fill that role.

And count me in on the "Gordon over Hairston" bandwagon...at least in a playoff series (or 3!!... see what I did there?)

From what I am reading, the plan (assuming Kemp continues to knock off the rust) is to platoon Crawford and Ethier since Ethier hits RHP MUCH better than Crawford.

 

[OutlawImmortal]

I agree Villain, I think I'd take Hairston over Van Slyke though since Hairston can play the outfield as well as the infield and I'm not sure how much Van Slyke will make a difference as a pinch hitter. Gordon is blinding fast.

 

[CatsTopPac]

This Hairston v. Gordon bit is interesting. I think that with the age of the Dodgers, fielding might be more important than we think, especially if they play another month of intense playoff baseball. I would rather have Hairston. Gordon is definitely fast, but as stated above, he is really only good for that. I think that if we really need a pinch runner, Punto could steal a base and score from second. I just really think that the Dodgers have some older players who need rest, and some younger players who have been injured this year, an extra utility IF/OF might end up pretty useful. Neither of the two on the bubble have BA to speak of, and I can already see Gordon making errors in a playoff situation. Really, his only value would be as a pinch runner, in a late-game situation, where it's tied, or we're down by one. I just don't think that it is a prevalent situation enough to use a spot on someone who can only really contribute in that situation. If so, I can see Punto stepping up. I can much more see a situation where Either's ankle is tender again, or something with Kemp's hammy, or Crawford needs a rest. If we run into a string of injuries in the IF/OF and Uribe needs rest for a game, and all of a sudden we need Hairston to get in the game provide some defense, we will be glad he's there.

I don't know, it's certainly close. I just think the situation is more likely for us to need to go deep to the bench for a fielder and not have one, rather than us need a pinch runner and not have one.