I guess we will see about Geno. If the offense around him is better than last year in every aspect, it would be an odd match with lesser performance from hm.
Tough to be better than 3-3 in division? I have heard some talking heads conclude that this year's AZ roster may be the worst ever assembled. It is going to be bad in AZ, and that should be two guaranteed wins. I assume you would agree with that? Then you would be saying that it would be tough to do better than 1-3 against SF and LA.
Sweep AZ? Sure. They will probably suck. So yeah, simple math then says I doubt we do better than 1 win in the 4 other div games. Do you really think we sweep the Rams 2 years in a row? I don't. It is of course possible but not realistic to expect. SF dominated us 3x last year. We haven't closed that gap. 3-3 is our most likely div record in '23, as I see it.
I think we're just as likely to beat SF once as LA is likely to beat us once. I think if you played the season out 1,000 times, the most typical result would be 4-2 in the division. Both AZ games and LA at home should be near locks, although week 1 games are always a little scary. That means we have three chances to add another win, and @SF is maybe a 30% chance at a win, SF at home is 40%, and @LA is 50%. I like those odds to finish at least 4-2, and hopefully 5-1. It would be nuts to go 6-0, but the team is talented enough to win any given week.
If our offense is converting more 3rd downs and scoring more points and Geno isn't hurt, I really doubt his overall numbers will take much of a hit. Less volume? Maybe... especially if the defense improves to the point where the O doesn't need 40+ points to beat the likes of the Lions, Raiders, and Saints. And ok, maybe he won't hit 69% completions again but if everything else around him is better like you say, how can he have some precipitous drop there? If Geno falls on his ass, this team won't be converting more 3rd downs or scoring more points than last year.
I just can't see where that is coming from. SF beat us easily 3x, and they only had CMC, Debo, and Kittle all on the field for 1 of them. They may have been a QB injury in the NFCC away from winning the SB. Both of our wins over LA were close, and the final one was an OT nailbiter at home w/o Stafford. I do think we are better than the Rams, but it's not to the point where the expectation should be that sweeping them is more likely than a split. No way. The talent difference between most teams in the league isn't very large, and the Hawks aren't top 5 or anything.
I did pretty much agree with you that I can see him hitting less than 69%. However, 63% seems a bit low. Probably somewhere in the middle of that. But if you're telling me this offense is going to score more points and convert 3rd downs at a higher rate (aren't those usually passes?) with Geno at QB, I just think his numbers would have to still be pretty darn good by a matter of course. I don't care too much about 4k yards because throwing it more isn't always throwing it better.
Yeah, I just think that by how football usually works, if the QB's numbers drop across the board from the previous season then it's pretty unlikely the offense is going to be better at the same time. I wouldn't bet with you that Geno is going to hit 69% comp or lead the league in that category, but the closer he is to 63% with a lesser passer rating then the more I doubt the offense is going to be scoring more points and converting more 3rd downs than last year. They just don't really go together.
You may have had a typo there but we did draft high on another RB... Zach Charbonnet... My guess is he would be our starter if something had happened to K9...
Yeah, interesting point about # of TDs. Here is the team record for # of TDs Geno threw in a game:
It does if the running game is a beast. Lots of 3rd and shorts and such, better conversion rate on 3rd down because of the short yardage, More rushes for first downs. We have seen teams get better on offense with a stellar running game and a middle of the pack passing game. ( Titans )
