Pirates' Starting Rotation

[magnumo]

Pitching, especially starting pitching, is the name of the game.

With the signing of Karstens and apparent resolution of the Liriano situation, I feel as optimistic about the Pirates' starting rotation as I have in any off-season during the losing streak. Over the last couple of decades, the Pirates HAVE had rotations which gave some hope. However, the 2013 rotation has enough depth to inspire some confidence..... and confidence is better than hope.

Burnett, Rodriguez, McDonald, Liriano, and Karstens PROBABLY are penciled in as the starting five, assuming all are healthy as the season opens. That leaves Locke and McPherson as the 6th and 7th guys in line..... and Morton and Cole hopefully ready to help by mid-season. There are a few other possibilities as well, but I'll stop at nine..... nine guys who all could be decent starting pitchers in the major leagues. I'm positively impressed.

On the other hand, there could be a bunch of time-bombs in there, due to potential age-related decline, injuries, inconsistency, and just plain under-performance. But shouldn't nine guys be enough to protect against that? Seems that there is a wide range of possible outcomes from the starting rotation, whoever they turn out to be..... anything between stellar performance and total implosion. Nothing between 65 and 95 wins would surprise me.

 

[Darkstone42]

I agree with everything you've said, Mags, and I agree that the depth we have going into this season is more encouraging than anything we've had in a long time. We don't need our five starters to all perform at or above expectations, because we have two, and then four (perhaps a few more, even) more guys who can step in and help out in case of injuries, under performance, or fatigue. This is why I supported the idea of going after Liriano and/or Marcum and bringing back Karstens. When you have no sure things, and there are no sure things available, you need that depth to protect yourself.

I also think this is NH's best offseason so far (for as little as that means), and that this is the most talented, on paper, team he's fielded. The past two years we have seen overachievement, and we might not see that this year, but I think the team we have now has the highest likelihood of success of the past three years, even though I don't actually expect that to come to fruition.

 

[redlegs@hokies]

I'm glad to see the Pirates playing competitive baseball again. Too nice of a park, city, and history to flounder so long. The buccos certainly have been pretty pesky to the Reds the past few years.

 

[Burgh Sports Rule]

I agree guys. As I have said before, with the Liriano deal getting done & the Pirates keeping Karstens ( At the Pirates Price ) plus, with the other moves that they have made.

I think the Pirates have had a very nice offseason, given the teams financial constraints & what was thought to be, by many, a weak FA market.

I liked the Hammer trade. Coupled with what else we have done to this point.
I like the pitching depth. I am looking forward to watching Melencon pitch. I feel he could have better numbers than Hammer in Boston this yr. I like Sands too.

Most of all, I am looking forward to a full yr of Cutch, Marte & Snider in our OF.
Another yr of an improving & maturing Pedro & a fully healthy Walker, points to good things as well.

Let us not forget that we have 2, 1st Rd. Pks in a very important 2013 draft to help try and continue to stock an improving farm system as well.

I think the Pirates have done very well for themselves this offseason.

This could be the most competitive team the Pirates have put on the field in a long time & I for one, am very excited for this season.

I think that the Pirates & Neal Huntington have done pretty well.

Let's hope that these moves translate in to a good season on the field?

Burgh

 

[SFNL]

This thread just got me excited for baseball....

Thanks!

 

[magnumo]

An article on the Pirates' page at MLB.com (second link below) went beyond the nine guys listed in my original post. They talk about Kris Johnson (a retread lefty who has been pitching extremely well in the Dominican Winter League).....

Bucs' Starling Marte, Kris Johnson shine in Dominican finals | pirates.com: News

.....as well as Andy Oliver, Jeanmar Gomez, and Vin Mazzaro..... all acquired in off-season trades.

Pirates will open camp with depth in rotation | pirates.com: News

Additional possibilities (all long-shots) include:

- Phil Irwin (who has started effectively at EVERY minor league stop over the past four seasons, including a brief stint at Indy at the end of 2012)

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Phillip-Irwin

- Chris Leroux (a live-armed reliever who has expressed interest in starting, and had some success doing that at Indy last year)

- Justin Wilson (a good-stuff, weak-control lefty who grew up as a starter, was switched to the BP, but rumor has it the Bucs will return him to a starting role in 2013)

Unbelievably, those 7 additional candidates bring the total to 16 possibilities..... almost surely enough to staff good rotations in both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. I STILL haven't listed either Taillon or Pimentel who are scheduled to start the season in the rotation at Altoona. No wonder Rick VandenHurk asked for his release to pitch in Korea. Apparently, he saw the handwriting on the wall.

 

[Darkstone42]

An article on the Pirates' page at MLB.com (second link below) went beyond the nine guys listed in my original post. They talk about Kris Johnson (a retread lefty who has been pitching extremely well in the Dominican Winter League).....

Bucs' Starling Marte, Kris Johnson shine in Dominican finals | pirates.com: News

.....as well as Andy Oliver, Jeanmar Gomez, and Vin Mazzaro..... all acquired in off-season trades.

Pirates will open camp with depth in rotation | pirates.com: News

Additional possibilities (all long-shots) include:

- Phil Irwin (who has started effectively at EVERY minor league stop over the past four seasons, including a brief stint at Indy at the end of 2012)

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Phillip-Irwin

- Chris Leroux (a live-armed reliever who has expressed interest in starting, and had some success doing that at Indy last year)

- Justin Wilson (a good-stuff, weak-control lefty who grew up as a starter, was switched to the BP, but rumor has it the Bucs will return him to a starting role in 2013)

Unbelievably, those 7 additional candidates bring the total to 16 possibilities..... almost surely enough to staff good rotations in both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. I STILL haven't listed either Taillon or Pimentel who are scheduled to start the season in the rotation at Altoona. No wonder Rick VandenHurk asked for his release to pitch in Korea. Apparently, he saw the handwriting on the wall.

This Irwin fellow looks to have some pretty solid control. Hopefully his stuff is good enough.

 

[Illinest]

The pirates are finally starting to have some arms to look forward to.
Beyond the obvious Cole and Taillon you have phil irwin, who doesn't have a lot of velocity but also doesnt walk people and has a surprisingly good k/9. You also have tyler glasnow and luis heredia who are each further away but have the potential to develop into very good starters.

I am excited to see which pitchers take a step forward this year.

 

[thedddd]

With Irwin I was glad they added him to the 40 man roster.

From what I read his stuff is average but has good control which probably gets him more K's. Not sure that rate would occur in the majors but if he is another option as a starter if needed.

Well too bad Zach Stewart got claimed. Glad that happened!

 

[element1286]

I'm guessing Cole makes his debut this year at some point, and will probably be the second or third best pitcher in the rotation when he does.

I still don't see anyone in the group being more than a solid #3, but there is potential they have 5 #3 starters, so I guess that makes up for the lack of high end talent.

 

[stillmatic32]

I'm guessing Cole makes his debut this year at some point, and will probably be the second or third best pitcher in the rotation when he does.

I still don't see anyone in the group being more than a solid #3, but there is potential they have 5 #3 starters, so I guess that makes up for the lack of high end talent.

You think his upside is as a #3 long term or just this season? I think he has a chance to come to the bigs and dominate immediately. Sure that's contingent upon some things, but I do think there is a decent chance of that happening.

 

[sychmd]

before there is a book on him, he has the chance to dominate, then it will be up to him to adjust. he seems like he has the stuff and the smarts to adjust. not sure if he has that killer instinct or street dog battler in him to be the #1. hopefully he will show it.

on irwin, as you all describe him, as i have never seen him, sounds like a greg maddux type with no power but must have good location. to get people to miss and strikeout without power he either has good movement or is a step ahead by changing speeds and location very successfully.
hopefully that moxie continues in the bigs as he would be great to pitch right after cole bringing it at 102 and then having to face the crafty guy the next night.

i am excited for some games.

i am not familiar with the "clock" rules, but
if cole is going to be a super 2 anyways, why not have him go north in april.

 

[element1286]

You think his upside is as a #3 long term or just this season? I think he has a chance to come to the bigs and dominate immediately. Sure that's contingent upon some things, but I do think there is a decent chance of that happening.

Just this season. Long term he has the upside of a true #1.

 

[Illinest]

Projecting forward:
Burnett is signed through end of this season.
Liriano and rodriguez through this and next. Rodriguez has a player option for '14.
Mcdonald and karstens dont have multi-year contracts.

Guys that "might be a #3 type" include mcpherson, locke, maybe irwin etc... These types often end up being 4s and 5s in the real world. I am not worried about the back end of our rotation. We need top half guys.
Cole is due this year.
Taillon is due next year if all goes well.
Glasnow and heredia should both start in A ball, which makes them candidates for '14.

All of those four have the ceiling of a 1 or 2. If you look at the big picture the pirates have a lot of potential. More likely that at least 2 of those guys crap the bed. I'm going to pick cole and glasnow just to make a point. That means that by 14 we may have one ace in taillon, be hoping for heredia to arrive mid-season and give us a strong 2. Cole maybe still struggling in the rotation and glasnow - i dont know. Stuck in AA.
I see that as more likely than all four working out. In such a case it would be much better to have another awesome pitcher from outside the organization. Then our "likelier case" would actually look pretty good.

 

[stillmatic32]

Just this season. Long term he has the upside of a true #1.

Gotcha. That's what I figured you meant, just making sure.

 

[thecrow124]

before there is a book on him, he has the chance to dominate, then it will be up to him to adjust. he seems like he has the stuff and the smarts to adjust. not sure if he has that killer instinct or street dog battler in him to be the #1. hopefully he will show it.

on irwin, as you all describe him, as i have never seen him, sounds like a greg maddux type with no power but must have good location. to get people to miss and strikeout without power he either has good movement or is a step ahead by changing speeds and location very successfully.
hopefully that moxie continues in the bigs as he would be great to pitch right after cole bringing it at 102 and then having to face the crafty guy the next night.

i am excited for some games.

i am not familiar with the "clock" rules, but
if cole is going to be a super 2 anyways, why not have him go north in april.

Irwin isn't a true "crafty" pitcher in the Karstens and Maddux sense. He can pitch as hard as 94-95, but usually sits 90-92 from what I have read. He does however have great control and good movement and he can throw all of his pitches over the plate. What it really comes down to is that he benefits from playing in pitchers parks. He projects more as a #5 starter or a great bullpen guy suited for a Karstens role, long relief and spot starter.

Cole is not projected to be a Super 2, the reasoning for not bringing him up when the Pirates break camp is not because he would become a Super 2, it is because he would become eligible for free agency after the 2018 season but if he stays in the minors until after June 21 I think it is, he would not be eligible for free agency until after 2019.

 

[sychmd]

Irwin isn't a true "crafty" pitcher in the Karstens and Maddux sense. He can pitch as hard as 94-95, but usually sits 90-92 from what I have read. He does however have great control and good movement and he can throw all of his pitches over the plate. What it really comes down to is that he benefits from playing in pitchers parks. He projects more as a #5 starter or a great bullpen guy suited for a Karstens role, long relief and spot starter.

Cole is not projected to be a Super 2, the reasoning for not bringing him up when the Pirates break camp is not because he would become a Super 2, it is because he would become eligible for free agency after the 2018 season but if he stays in the minors until after June 21 I think it is, he would not be eligible for free agency until after 2019.

thanks for the money side comment.
i am trying to understand the rationale for keeping them down.
i know they brought jones, cutch and walker sooner in the year than people thought, but can someone clarify for me what determines:
1. how many years at the minimum before arbitration starts
2. when they become a free agent.

 

[thecrow124]

Arbitration starts after they have accumulated a set amount of service time at the major league level. That number used to be set by the dates that the previous seasons rookies first came up. Now it is a date determined by MLB. It should be around June 20. So basically any player with rookie eligibility that is up before the as yet to be determined date will get one year of service time. If they are brought up after that date they do not accumulate the year of service time. Teams retain a players rights for 6 years of service time. Meaning if a player is brought up after that date they can help the team for about 6 1/2 years.

Arbitration can start after 2 years if a player qualifies for Super 2 status. But typically it starts after 3 years of service time.

 

[sychmd]

Arbitration starts after they have accumulated a set amount of service time at the major league level. That number used to be set by the dates that the previous seasons rookies first came up. Now it is a date determined by MLB. It should be around June 20. So basically any player with rookie eligibility that is up before the as yet to be determined date will get one year of service time. If they are brought up after that date they do not accumulate the year of service time. Teams retain a players rights for 6 years of service time. Meaning if a player is brought up after that date they can help the team for about 6 1/2 years.

Arbitration can start after 2 years if a player qualifies for Super 2 status. But typically it starts after 3 years of service time.

thanks again,
so application:
if cole is brought up on june 19(or earlier), 2013 (assume he plays with pirates continuously through the next 10 years for this scenario):
arbitration starts after the 2015 playing year (super 2)
free agency is after 2018 playing year.

if cole is brought up june 20 (or later)
arbitration starts after 2016
free agency is after 2019

would this be correct.

last year, harper and trout were brought up so early and strausburg was as brought up june 8. if it is as you say, what would be the reasons to get 3 starts and lose a year of financial cheapness and one more guaranteed year he is yours.

 

[thecrow124]

Super two and the extra year of control really only matter to small market teams. Players like Trout, Harper and Strassburg will almost assuredly be extended by their own teams as long as they perform as expected and don't get hurt. Much like McCutchen was before last season, even though he would not have been Super 2 eligible.

Neil Walker is the only significant player we currently have that it is meaningful to. He got a September call-up and then started the next season at AAA. At the time he was going to become the super utility guy for the Pirates, then a need arose at 2B and he has hit enough to keep his spot and has built himself into a good defender at the position. Walker isn't really a good fit for an extension because he is under team control through his age 31 season and was hurt at the end of last season. Past that season it is entirely possible that the Pirates let him walk depending on the development of our minor leaguers.

Your Cole scenarios would be correct. However, if the Pirates feel they can compete, it would actually be in their best interrest to have Cole in the rotation from day 1. Personally I think they are a long way off from being competitive so would have no problem keeping Cole in AAA all year and starting 2014 with Cole and Taillon in AAA then bringing them up together in June 2015. However, this could be a make or break year for NH and we could see both by the end of this year.