JohnU
Aristocratic Hoosier
I think the art of knowing when to buy, what to buy and when to sell would be the subject of a great book on baseball.I can't remember the last time the Reds signed a MLB experienced pitcher to a minor league contract and he pitched above expectations. By the time these guys enter the realm of minor league free agency their most valuable asset is they're expendable. He's the guy you call up and DFA the next day.
Sometimes you see a guy coming off injury that can be a cheap quality signing, but those seem on the rare side as well.
The Reds have had more success with the guys they've claimed off waivers. Alfredo Simon and Dan Straily are two good examples of pitchers that the Reds were able to squeeze some value out of. Not only did they initially pitch well, but they were able to flip them for Eugenio Suarez and Luis Castillo. Can't beat getting a guy for the waiver fee and league minimum and flipping him for a younger more talented player.
The issue these days is that everyone is in the database and the numbers consistently prove that the baseball card reveals enough to fool only the densest front office.
All the same, the intangibles of playing a professional sport are hard to nail down. If Quacky or Badhop pitches like the metrics show they pitch, it would be foolish to ignore the metrics.
Dabbling in middle relievers is always a matter of seeing if the guy can give you a month of fair performance, a couple of games that you pull out of your ass ... or fill in some extra innings so you don't expose the bullpen for the Sunday getaway game. If a team has committed to letting their starters go only 5 innings and hope the 7-8-9 guys will save them, they will still get beat in the 6th inning, so which is worse ... a flat tire or a dead battery?
Depending on the injury, knees, shoulders and lower back ... all red flags. Elbows, well yeah if you can wait 18 months, you get the guy back. In the case of Amir Garrett, the hip is fixable so long as he didn't torque his shoulder adapting to it.
Then there are guys like Nick Masset who had enough tools to stay in the league despite not having the skills to get people out. Hoover is another in that group.