Maximum Tanaka bid?

[Johnny Sleeper]

I was thinking about how some of the rumors are that the Tanaka bidding could get up to $80M+ so I started thinking about the maximum the Cubs could go. This requires going a lot of guess work on their finances. The first thing I'm taking into consideration is that the Cubs have to operate in the black. This is based off of several reports, but Bruce Levine explained it the best saying the sell agreement requires them to operate in the black through 2016 to give Zell certain tax breaks. Given that payroll has been sitting around $110M the last two seasons, although it would have gone to about $120M if they had landed Sanchez I'm going to assume that we are looking at a maximum payroll obligation of $120M. Then we factor in what I will call found money; meaning money that was not available last year and the Cubs gain $25M from the new MLB TV deal, every team gets this increase. That gives the Cubs about $145M.

Next we look at where spending could decrease this year from last year and the international spending jumps out. They went well over their limit last year which resulted in financial penalties and a cap of $250k on any international signings this year. My guess is an estimate based on reported signing amounts and estimating the tax means they have another $15Mish to play with. Their draft cap will remain about the same as they have the 4th pick this year so for this exercise I'm going to assume it's a wash.

I see that as giving the Cubs about $170M for total payroll and a bid on Tanaka. The big league payroll, right now, looks like it will end up around $75M, without any other significant financial moves. If you add the estimated salary of Tanaka, $10M, to that they are at $85M. So right now I'm going to guess they have a maximum bid of $85M for Tanaka if they are willing to go with every dollar they can.

They can increase that amount by trading Shark ($5M), Castro ($5M), spending less on Wrigley upkeep this off-season then last off-season. Last off-season was estimated at $40M and I hear they are planning on spending that same amount this year. I'm sure there are other ways they can shave off a little money here and there. I'm going to assume they trade Shark due to the rumors of very strong offers from both Arizona and Washington.

I'm going to guess that the maximum bid the Cubs can make on Tanaka is right around $90M. With the Dodgers and Yankees expected to be in the bidding I think the Cubs will end up throwing out a bid of $91.1M. I also think that will be enough to land Tanaka and we will all hope he is more Darvish then Dice-K. That is my understandings of what they have to spend and I fully expect them to go all-in on Tanaka. The good news is that if they can spend $90M on Tanaka that means that next off-season they will have a lot of money to spend on other players to fill needs as Baez, Bryant, Alcantara, Soler, Almora, etc. come up.

How much do you think they will bid? My math could be completely off and I could be way over or under on money available.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Jesus, I hope we don't go spending $150 million on an unproven player.

I'm seeing flashbacks of Hee Sop Choi and Kosuke Fukudome all over again.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Hee Sop Choi was Korean and cost very little. Fukudome met all reasonable expectations. He was a good defensive RF and a high OBP guy. He never should have been considered a power hitter, but that was unfairly expected of him by the media which then translated to the fans. That $100M Texas spent on Darvish looks like a great buy. That will drive up the price on Tanaka. The history of pitchers coming from Japan and doing well is much better then hitters living up to expectation. Power numbers are much easier to achieve in Japan then in MLB, hence Tuffy Rhodes is one of the best power hitters in NBL history.

 

[anotheridiot]

I just wish it wasnt blind bidding. Put him up on ebay so the winning team isnt 20 million over the second place team.

I dont see the cubs putting much into payroll for a few years when they start paying our guys, so for the people that think a 150 million dollar payroll is needed to win playoff games, I'd rather it go to a pitcher that getting cano and ellsbury.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

I just have to disagree. I think spending all that money on an unproven player is too much of a gamble.

Just because Darvish worked out doesn't mean Tanaka will. Dice K didn't seem to work out. It's just completely too much of a gamble.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Dice-K got hurt after winning RoY and finishing 4th in Cy Young voting his first two seasons and was never the same. Kuroda has had a very good MLB career after coming over from Japan and he came over later then most at age 33. I agree it is a big risk. However, this is a risk that seems to be worth it. They are not going to sign Ellsbury, Choo, Granderson, Cano, etc because they have said repeatedly they will not give up draft picks. Boras was even crying today about how the Cubs won't talk to him about his clients due to asking price.

Why not take a shot on a pitcher that will be 25 next season and by all accounts has a floor of Kuroda with the upside of Cy Young contender? If they miss he is only on the books for $10-12M/yr going forward. So your worst case is that EJax and Tanaka end up being $11M/yr 4th and 5th starters or Tanaka ends up as a high priced bullpen arm. They either win the bid on Tanaka or sign a one-year player to fill that rotation spot who they hope to trade mid-season and what would have been the posting fee is used on other projects, i.e. Wrigley renovations, instead of player acquisition.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I dont see the cubs putting much into payroll for a few years when they start paying our guys, so for the people that think a 150 million dollar payroll is needed to win playoff games, I'd rather it go to a pitcher that getting cano and ellsbury.

They need pitching and this is one of the few ways of getting a young, 25, and talented arm without having to give up prospects. Unless the entire world is wrong about the pitching in the Cubs' farm and they have a few top of the rotation arms that no one has identified sitting there this is their best chance at taking a shot for one without it hampering their financial ability going forward. Assuming they have the ability to win the posting fee. They are not going to sign players over 30 who are in decline. Tanaka is still at the age he is improving and since he has experience and has won a championship, granted in Japan, he at least has some big game experience and understands what it takes to win at a professional level unlike most of the guys on the team and coming up.

 

[anotheridiot]

They need pitching and this is one of the few ways of getting a young, 25, and talented arm without having to give up prospects. Unless the entire world is wrong about the pitching in the Cubs' farm and they have a few top of the rotation arms that no one has identified sitting there this is their best chance at taking a shot for one without it hampering their financial ability going forward. Assuming they have the ability to win the posting fee. They are not going to sign players over 30 who are in decline. Tanaka is still at the age he is improving and since he has experience and has won a championship, granted in Japan, he at least has some big game experience and understands what it takes to win at a professional level unlike most of the guys on the team and coming up.

I get that, but do you pay 100 million for one guy that might or might not be a major league ace.

Remember, the biggest difference between MLB and the orient is travel. I think the longest distance they go is a three hour plane ride. MLB is brutal for those pitchers who go a whole series without doing anything but throwing on the side. You also need to get the right interpreter. All honesty, I dont like the cubs having to hire the interpreter, let the guy bring his. Its not our fault he needs help to go shopping. You really dont know the pitching mileage on Tanaka. He averages over 7.6 innings per start. Threw over 200 innings in a 25 game season. That puts him on pace for 240 in the majors. You either get Ryu or Dice K and as big a deal as dice k was when he got here, its been as bad since. I really dont know. He can be done by 2016 when its time to make a run. I dont know if a team being that far away is gonna get him, I dont know if Tanaka will come to the murder capital of the US with the insufficient training facilities that other teams offer. IF he gets to choose top 3 I dont think he picks here. He will go to a stacked team.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I don't see the mileage on the arm as an issue. He has pitched less innings and faced less batters then Darvish had at the same age when he came over. Everyone throws out Dice-k, but how many other major pitching busts have there been from Japan? Darvish and Iwakuma have both been very good since coming over. They haven't come to an agreement on changing the posting rules so it is still the highest bid that wins.

Dice-K killed himself by hiding an injury. Injuries are what killed his career. That can happen to anyone, including the prospects you want the Cubs to wait on and not sign anyone that even has a remote chance of blocking them for a few months. Dice-K wins RoY, finishes 2nd in Cy Young voting then he gets hurt during the WBC and hides it and keeps pitching. That leads to further injuring his hip and extended DL trips and he was never the same after that.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Looks like Tanaka won't be posted. MLB and NBL were not able to reach an agreement on a posting system and since the old one expired it doesn't look like Tanaka will be able to post this off-season. If that holds up the trade value of Samardzija gets a huge boost as he will be either the best or second best pitcher available depending on if Price gets traded or the Rays keep him to try to win in the next two years. Keep in mind the Rays kept B.J. Upton and let him leave as an FA instead of trading him early so it wouldn't be unheard of, but the salary difference between Price and Upton will be significant. Upton made $7M his last year of arbitration and Upton made over $10M next year so $15-18M this year is likely with $20M next year about the bottom line expectation unless he has a bad year.

 

[anotheridiot]

thats fine for me, I cant stand this system. As far as the Rays keeping BJ upton, I dont think they ever thought enough of him to offer him more, and nobody trusted he would become a real star so they didnt offer enough for him. I mean upton was on the level of Crawford and he didnt do well outside of tampa right away.

I dont get the rays. They extended Longoria again, another 100 million and yes, the average dollars per year is only 10 million from day 1, but they wont commit to anyone else.

Anyway, its gonna be a Shields for Meyers + to get Price. If the cubs are set with Castro as shortstop a Baez + would get Price. It will cost that much and personally I would keep the guy with a chance to impact 162 games over the guy that will impact 20 some and eat innings in 14 more.

 

[PackMaster]

The cubs won't get him, of course the front office will blow a bunch of smoke up your bum hole but its all crap. This organization is cheap cheap cheap which is odd because the cubs are one of the biggest markets in the MLB. I mean the most popular team in chicago is saying something. At this point I'd love to do anything, tanaka would be a dream come true but I don't see us getting him. The FO will tell ya they tried and those dumb enough will believe em.

 

[Sportsmen]

$25 million a year for 7 years (including posting fee) for a guy who has never pitched in the majors...... thank god we did not get him. That is just insane.