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nogicat
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To begin, how are you guys? I have not been on here in a while because I really just miss the live feed chat we used to have and I have gotten way busier.
Second, isn't it great to be Pac 12 South Champions?!?! What a great game yesterday and I am really proud of the direction our program is going.
Well I am sure the thought has now crept into your minds but we have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff.
I firmly believe that the champion of the clear second best conference in the nation should have a spot in the CFP. However, thats not up to me to decide. It is up to a panel that watches games being laced with the SEC agenda money hungry ESPN is trying to push.
Alright on to some hypotheticals because we all know that is fun.
#8 UCLA and #9 Georgia have lost today meaning at worst we should be #9 next week. Time for some hypotheticals that can hopefully move us up the ladder. (Each hypothetical assumes we beat Oregon this Friday, which in itself will be incredibly tough, but I like to have fun)
Now, if we beat the Ducks, they will be eliminated from playoff Contention. I am also going to assume FSU and Bama win out to take #1 and #2 spots.
Lets start by comparing #10 Michigan St to the Cats.
Assuming MSU wins over Penn St and finishes with two losses they still will not be playing for a conference championship.
I think that you can argue that Arizona can jump them this week even, considering Arizona now has 3 wins over current top 25 teams and playing for a Conf. Title while MSU has 0 and isn't. Even if that jump doesn't happen today, it will happen if the Cats beat the Ducks this Friday. (Giving them 4 Top 25 wins)
I will follow with a comparison to #6 Ohio St. OSU will play for a conference title next week against Wisconsin or Minnesota. If OSU were to win their resume would include 3 wins over current Top 25 teams a horrible loss at home to unranked Virginia Tech. They would be Big 10 champs. Arizona's resume would include 4 wins over current Top 25 teams and 2 losses (1 to unranked USC). They would be Pac-12 Champs. If they lose they would be jumped by Arizona. The Wisconsin/Minnesota winner would be too far back to catch the Cats. Considering OSU just lost Barrett this there is a solid chance they could fall next week, especially if the team they face is Wisconsin.
Next up is #4 Mississippi St. Their game with Ole Miss is ongoing but I really think they are going to lose. If they win SEC bias will prevail and they will take one of those final four spots. Now if they lose, Mississippi State will finish with a single win over a current top 25 team, two losses, and didn't play for their conference title. Arizona's resume would include 4 wins over current Top 25 teams and 2 losses (1 to unranked USC). They would be Pac-12 Champs. Nothing other than a blatant SEC bias can stop Arizona from jumping Mississippi State.
Next up is #7 Baylor. Lets say Baylor wins out and is a one loss team. They would be Big 12 Champions. (I also think a win over #12 KSU will be enough for them to jump TCU who they beat head to head). I will throw #5 TCU in this mix too, because they will finish with 1 loss.
Baylor's resume would include 3 wins over current Top 25 teams and 1 loss to unranked WVU. They would be Big 12 conference Champs.
TCU's resume would include 2 wins over current Top 25 teams and 1 loss to Baylor head to head.
Arizona's resume would include 4 wins over current Top 25 teams and 2 losses (1 to unranked USC). They would be Pac-12 Champs.
This logjam is interesting. If Arizona wins I don't see how the committee can take both TCU and Baylor over them even if both win out. They have to drop one team especially since they are in the same conference (probably TCU).
So if everyone takes care of business I am thinking the Final Four would be Bama, FSU, Mississippi St, and Ohio St/Baylor with the Cats barely missing it. But I think they would still strongly be considered.
This really isn't as unrealistic as it seems. If Arizona wins and MSU and OSU lose, I think its a done deal and the Cats are in. With the Big 12 winner taking the other spot. Thats the easiest scenario.
In my honest opinion if you win this conference you should be in the playoff but the bias is too strong and the Cats don't necessarily have the national reputation to help them out.
However, the committee seems to like the Pac-12 and has been ranking us favorably. Also I am assuming the committee will really value the final value of opponents on teams schedules rather than how they were ranked at the time they played that team. So far, the committee hasn't been crystal clear on what they look for either so hell knows.
So kick back Go Ole Miss, Go Wisconsin/Minnesota next week, and lets beat Oregon next week.
Either way happy we have gotten here and at worst I think we are Fiesta Bowl Bound. Hope this didn't mindfuck anyone hahaha
Second, isn't it great to be Pac 12 South Champions?!?! What a great game yesterday and I am really proud of the direction our program is going.
Well I am sure the thought has now crept into your minds but we have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff.
I firmly believe that the champion of the clear second best conference in the nation should have a spot in the CFP. However, thats not up to me to decide. It is up to a panel that watches games being laced with the SEC agenda money hungry ESPN is trying to push.
Alright on to some hypotheticals because we all know that is fun.
#8 UCLA and #9 Georgia have lost today meaning at worst we should be #9 next week. Time for some hypotheticals that can hopefully move us up the ladder. (Each hypothetical assumes we beat Oregon this Friday, which in itself will be incredibly tough, but I like to have fun)
Now, if we beat the Ducks, they will be eliminated from playoff Contention. I am also going to assume FSU and Bama win out to take #1 and #2 spots.
Lets start by comparing #10 Michigan St to the Cats.
Assuming MSU wins over Penn St and finishes with two losses they still will not be playing for a conference championship.
I think that you can argue that Arizona can jump them this week even, considering Arizona now has 3 wins over current top 25 teams and playing for a Conf. Title while MSU has 0 and isn't. Even if that jump doesn't happen today, it will happen if the Cats beat the Ducks this Friday. (Giving them 4 Top 25 wins)
I will follow with a comparison to #6 Ohio St. OSU will play for a conference title next week against Wisconsin or Minnesota. If OSU were to win their resume would include 3 wins over current Top 25 teams a horrible loss at home to unranked Virginia Tech. They would be Big 10 champs. Arizona's resume would include 4 wins over current Top 25 teams and 2 losses (1 to unranked USC). They would be Pac-12 Champs. If they lose they would be jumped by Arizona. The Wisconsin/Minnesota winner would be too far back to catch the Cats. Considering OSU just lost Barrett this there is a solid chance they could fall next week, especially if the team they face is Wisconsin.
Next up is #4 Mississippi St. Their game with Ole Miss is ongoing but I really think they are going to lose. If they win SEC bias will prevail and they will take one of those final four spots. Now if they lose, Mississippi State will finish with a single win over a current top 25 team, two losses, and didn't play for their conference title. Arizona's resume would include 4 wins over current Top 25 teams and 2 losses (1 to unranked USC). They would be Pac-12 Champs. Nothing other than a blatant SEC bias can stop Arizona from jumping Mississippi State.
Next up is #7 Baylor. Lets say Baylor wins out and is a one loss team. They would be Big 12 Champions. (I also think a win over #12 KSU will be enough for them to jump TCU who they beat head to head). I will throw #5 TCU in this mix too, because they will finish with 1 loss.
Baylor's resume would include 3 wins over current Top 25 teams and 1 loss to unranked WVU. They would be Big 12 conference Champs.
TCU's resume would include 2 wins over current Top 25 teams and 1 loss to Baylor head to head.
Arizona's resume would include 4 wins over current Top 25 teams and 2 losses (1 to unranked USC). They would be Pac-12 Champs.
This logjam is interesting. If Arizona wins I don't see how the committee can take both TCU and Baylor over them even if both win out. They have to drop one team especially since they are in the same conference (probably TCU).
So if everyone takes care of business I am thinking the Final Four would be Bama, FSU, Mississippi St, and Ohio St/Baylor with the Cats barely missing it. But I think they would still strongly be considered.
This really isn't as unrealistic as it seems. If Arizona wins and MSU and OSU lose, I think its a done deal and the Cats are in. With the Big 12 winner taking the other spot. Thats the easiest scenario.
In my honest opinion if you win this conference you should be in the playoff but the bias is too strong and the Cats don't necessarily have the national reputation to help them out.
However, the committee seems to like the Pac-12 and has been ranking us favorably. Also I am assuming the committee will really value the final value of opponents on teams schedules rather than how they were ranked at the time they played that team. So far, the committee hasn't been crystal clear on what they look for either so hell knows.
So kick back Go Ole Miss, Go Wisconsin/Minnesota next week, and lets beat Oregon next week.
Either way happy we have gotten here and at worst I think we are Fiesta Bowl Bound. Hope this didn't mindfuck anyone hahaha
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