CFP Probability Analysis by 538

[Tharvot]

Pretty interesting read if you're a scenario junkie. All the wild possibilities in the final week of college football and the probability of who gets in.

This Week In College Football: All The Wild Scenarios That Could End The Season

 

[Ballboy534]

Great find; interesting stuff too.

 

[Blitzville]

Oklahoma is sitting in the best position right now by having finished their season winning against ranked teams at the end. They're in. In fact they may be the best team in the country right now. They won't be #1 due to no conference champ game.

Clemson, who I believe is not the best team right now must beat UNC. I feel the winner here should get in but UNC hasn't made believers of the committee. More on UNC later.

Alabama must beat Florida and they will be in. If not the committee will have a real challenge in finding a 4th team. They will put the Tide in on the SEC Championship but if they falter where does the committee go? Maybe Ohio State.

The outside looking in'ers, all with one or more losses:

The only way Ohio State gets in is if Iowa beats MSU and Bama or Clemson loses.

UNC, maybe if they slobber knock the Tigers the committee will take a different view of them. They will also have a better chance if Iowa beats MSU and a real good chance if Bama loses. A lot has to happen but it can and might,

Stanford, They need a lot of help and have a rejuvenated So Cal in their way. The ND win helps but it was at the last minute against a suspect team at home.

ND - 2 losses and close wins over weak teams does not do well for committee support, They will have a nice bowl game to attend.

Oklahoma State? OU took care of that. No champ game in conference so no dice.

Houston. Only because the committee will not take a team outside the power five conferences. So the only one loss team from there will not get in even with a win Saturday.