Biggest weaknesses for NFC West teams - ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

Part 1 of 2

Biggest roster weaknesses for 49ers, Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks - NFL
By Vince Verhei

Arizona Cardinals
Biggest post-draft weakness: Offensive line

This is going to create some controversy. Some observers tabbed Arizona's line as one of the most improved units in the NFL. The Cardinals signed three-time Pro Bowler Mike Iupati away from San Francisco in free agency and then spent their first-round draft choice on Florida's D.J. Humphries.

The numbers see things very, very differently. Our game charters credited Jared Veldheer with one blown block every 46 snaps played in 2014, ranking 15th-best among left tackles and 30th among all tackles. That's not bad, just eminently mediocre. The real issue, though, is Iupati, whose recent performance has not lived up to his reputation. His rate of one blown block per 37 snaps played ranked 32nd out of 37 qualifying left guards (minimum 400 snaps) and 97th out of 108 interior linemen. This wasn't a one-year fluke, either; in 2013, he had virtually the same rate (one every 36.8 snaps). In total, we tabbed Iupati with 20 blown blocks on pass plays last season. Only one interior lineman had more: Ted Larsen, Arizona's left guard last season who will now move over to center.

At the other end of the line, all indications are that Humphries will spend a year on the bench, backing up Bobby Massie, who wasn't terrible last year (42.4 snaps per blown block, 17th among right tackles). Projected right guard Jonathan Cooper was very effective in limited action in 2014 (73.6 snaps per blown block), but he has struggled to stay healthy, with only two starts in his first two seasons.

There is upside here if Iupati can regain his dominant 2012 form, if Cooper can stay healthy, and if Humphries can develop sooner than expected. But that's a lot of "ifs."


San Francisco 49ers
Biggest post-draft weakness: Linebacker

This figured to be one of San Francisco's strengths in 2015, but they were undone by a pair of surprise retirements. Five-time All-Pro Patrick Willis, 30, called it a career in mid-March. Though his 2014 season was limited to six games due to a toe injury, he was still effective when healthy, with some of the best pass coverage numbers of any linebacker in the league. In the end, Willis cited his bad feet as the biggest factor in his decision to retire.

If Willis' retirement was unexpected, Chris Borland's departure a week later was downright stunning. The rookie had 21 defeats (plays that stop an offense on third down, result in a loss of yardage, or force a turnover), ranking in the top 50 in the league, despite playing just 46 percent of the team's defensive snaps. With a full season, he might have challenged J.J. Watt's league-leading total of 43 defeats. It was a tantalizing glimpse of what Borland might have delivered in the future, but he walked away from the game, expressing concerns over possible head trauma. He goes down as one of the best one-year players ever.

So what's left? NaVorro Bowman is a three-time All-Pro and still only 27 years old, but he missed all of last season after tearing his ACL and MCL in the 2013 NFC Championship Game and only recently returned to practice. Michael Wilhoite wasn't much of a factor in his 16 starts; he had fewer run tackles than Borland despite playing more than twice as many snaps. And Nick Moody has barely played since the 49ers took him in the sixth round in 2013.

There are question marks on the outside, too. Ahmad Brooks has been a rock in San Francisco for four years now, but he missed three games last season and just turned 31. Aldon Smith was a non-factor after his suspension last season, with only two sacks (both against Washington, one of the worst pass-blocking teams in the league) in seven games.

 

[iowajerms]

Part 2 of 2

Seattle Seahawks
Biggest post-draft weakness: Offensive line

According to Football Outsiders' numbers, Seattle's rushing offense last season was the best in the league by a wide margin and one of the five best in our database going back to 1989. But that says more about the singular brilliance of Marshawn Lynch than it does about Seattle's line.

By our count, Lynch broke 29 more tackles than any other player in the league last year, and the effect of those broken tackles was significant. ESPN Stats & Information's data shows that out of the 43 backs with at least 100 runs last season, Lynch was second with 2.5 yards after contact per carry, but his 2.2 yards before contact was just 22nd. That latter ranking is much more indicative of the offensive line's run-blocking prowess, and the unit was even worse at pass blocking. Russell Wilson saw pressure on 39 percent of his dropbacks last season, the highest rate of any starting quarterback. Rookie right tackle Justin Britt somehow managed to lead the NFL in blown blocks on passing plays even though Seattle had the fewest dropbacks in the NFL.

So Seattle's line was on shaky footing anyway, and then it lost center Max Unger in the Jimmy Graham trade, while left guard James Carpenter signed with the Jets in free agency. The Seahawks have no proven options to replace them. Of the candidates on hand, Lemuel Jeanpierre has seen the most action with 11 career NFL starts (including three last year at center), while Alvin Bailey (three starts at guard last season, two at tackle) and Patrick Lewis (four starts at center) never started a game before 2014.

The Seahawks did add a couple of blockers in the fourth round of this year's draft, San Diego State's Terry Poole and West Virginia's Mark Glowinski. They also grabbed Buffalo's Kristjan Sokoli in the sixth round, but the collegiate defensive lineman looks like more of a long-term project than a first-year savior. That's a lot of question marks for a team looking to play in a third straight Super Bowl.


St. Louis Rams
Biggest post-draft weakness: Wide receiver

The biggest move in the Rams' rebirth as a power-rushing team was the selection of Georgia running back Todd Gurley in the first round of this year's draft, but that was neither the first nor the last part of the process. The offseason trade for Nick Foles gives St. Louis a quarterback who has had success in the NFL as a play-action passer on a run-heavy team. The Rams also let three starters on last season's ineffective offensive line move on in free agency, replacing them with blockers taken in the second, third, fourth, and sixth rounds of the draft. Along the way, though, St. Louis failed to address one of the league's weakest sets of wide receivers.

No wideout currently on the Rams roster has ever caught 50 passes or gained 800 yards in a season. In fact, the only Rams wideout to see 50 targets last season was Kenny Britt. It feels like Britt has been in the league forever, but he turns only 27 in December. Britt has averaged 15.6 yards per catch in his career, sixth-best among active players, and has finished in the top 10 in that category three times, including last season when he was catching passes from Shaun Hill and Austin Davis. It's not that hard to imagine him flourishing as a long-ball specialist, exploiting defenses that are stuffing the box to stop Gurley.

After that? Well, Brian Quick led the Rams with 53.6 receiving yards per game last season, but played in only seven games. He might not be ready for training camp after separating his shoulder and tearing his rotator cuff in a Week 8 loss to Kansas City. He has only 13 starts in three years on a Rams team that hasn't exactly been spoiled with talent at the position. Tavon Austin is always dangerous on reverses and gadget plays, but he hasn't had much luck actually catching passes. In fact, he had more runs (36) than receptions (31) in 2014. Stedman Bailey was surprisingly effective on a per-target basis last season, but, like Quick, it's telling that he has been such a small part of the Rams' game plan in his first two seasons.

 

[Southieinnc]

You make it sound as if the "might NFC West" is deteriorating.....

 

[gowazzu02]

thanks for posting. Oline has been our weakness for the past 2 years. Hopefully some new blood helps...

 

[DHoey]

You make it sound as if the "might NFC West" is deteriorating.....

Umm, that was the point of the article

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Interesting, given that the AFCN plays the W in both conferences this year, I've been looking more at these teams lately. Like every team in the NFL almost...there are holes to be filled and questions to be answered.

This will be a great season with so many good teams on the schedule...hopefully we get our share of Ws.

 

[cdumler7]

You make it sound as if the "might NFC West" is deteriorating.....

Every team has weaknesses. For the Pats I have no clue what they are doing with their secondary. For the Broncos the OL could possibly be starting 2 rookies to protect a quarterback already struggling to stay healthy for an entire year. Anytime you just focus on the weaknesses of course it is going to be hard to see success.

 

[Southieinnc]

Umm, that was the point of the article

I thought the article focused on each teams weaknesses. Together as a whole, it sounds as if the NFCW is deteriorating. Seattle and NE both had weaknesses last year and they were still the best in conference.
It is possible for one division to rise and fall as a whole?????

 

[Davis_Mike]

The Cardinals' analysis is funny. The Cardinals improved the O-line across the board in it's biggest area of need, run blocking. Pass blocking wasn't much of an issue last season.

Pass rushing & the lack there of, should have been the focus of the analysis. The Cardinals didn't really add much to the pass rushing corps other than take a flyer on a vet coming off a injured & down year.

 

[Southieinnc]

Every team has weaknesses. For the Pats I have no clue what they are doing with their secondary. For the Broncos the OL could possibly be starting 2 rookies to protect a quarterback already struggling to stay healthy for an entire year. Anytime you just focus on the weaknesses of course it is going to be hard to see success.

Revis and Browner were not the plan for the future. In 2013 we had too many rookies trying to hold their own - and not ready. We have cleaned house, told the young guys you have had enough time to learn and you are the secondary. We will shore them up with a really great pass rush. Develop a good game plan and expect everyone to do their job. That's it that's what we got.

 

[gowazzu02]

The Cardinals' analysis is funny. The Cardinals improved the O-line across the board in it's biggest area of need, run blocking. Pass blocking wasn't much of an issue last season.

Pass rushing & the lack there of, should have been the focus of the analysis. The Cardinals didn't really add much to the pass rushing corps other than take a flyer on a vet coming off a injured & down year.

They've improved "in theory" we'll see how it comes to fruition. I think the Cardinals biggest weakness is Palmers Fragile nature. Surprised they didn't make a run at a middling vet to back him up, Mccown, Jackson, cassell.

 

[gowazzu02]

The Cardinals' analysis is funny. The Cardinals improved the O-line across the board in it's biggest area of need, run blocking. Pass blocking wasn't much of an issue last season.

Pass rushing & the lack there of, should have been the focus of the analysis. The Cardinals didn't really add much to the pass rushing corps other than take a flyer on a vet coming off a injured & down year.

Did Cromartie end up leaving? Who do they have opposite "the overrated" Peterson?

 

[cdumler7]

Revis and Browner were not the plan for the future. In 2013 we had too many rookies trying to hold their own - and not ready. We have cleaned house, told the young guys you have had enough time to learn and you are the secondary. We will shore them up with a really great pass rush. Develop a good game plan and expect everyone to do their job. That's it that's what we got.

I'm not saying the secondary will for sure be a weakness. I'm saying every team has those question marks. Sometimes they end up being a good thing. Such as before this last season for the Broncos everybody was saying the Bronco run game would be terrible after losing Moreno. If anything it ended up being a bit better as we had a couple of young guys emerge. It happens every year. At the same time our OL was supposed to be a strength with Clady coming back and the whole group just collapsed.

 

[flyerhawk]

I'm not saying the secondary will for sure be a weakness. I'm saying every team has those question marks. Sometimes they end up being a good thing. Such as before this last season for the Broncos everybody was saying the Bronco run game would be terrible after losing Moreno. If anything it ended up being a bit better as we had a couple of young guys emerge. It happens every year. At the same time our OL was supposed to be a strength with Clady coming back and the whole group just collapsed.

Exactly right. The Seahawks certainly have big question marks on OL. They lost 2 of their starting 5. However the line was pretty terrible last year. Hard to be a whole lot worse really. But they may every well still be terrible again this year. Or they may improve.

Every season is a new season.

 

[Davis_Mike]

They've improved "in theory" we'll see how it comes to fruition. I think the Cardinals biggest weakness is Palmers Fragile nature. Surprised they didn't make a run at a middling vet to back him up, Mccown, Jackson, cassell.

Isn't that the point of this analysis this far out from the season? Where they have or haven't improved "in theory"? Most people analyzing the Cardinals would agree that "in theory" there O-line improved considerably.

When healthy, Palmer can produce at a close to top-10 level. You really can't predict injuries. Not counting 2014, since 2009, Palmer has missed exactly 1 game due to injury. So, I don't get this "Palmer is fragile" nonsense. A fluke injury doesn't mean he is fragile. And the injury really won't affect him much if at all, since he was basically already as non-mobile as you can get.

Stanton is as good as the QBs you listed. Look at last year's numbers & compare.

I really don't see how they could improve the QB situation. There was no top 10 QB available & the backups available aren't any better than Stanton. Let me know how any other team would do without there top 2 QBs on their roster.

 

[Davis_Mike]

Did Cromartie end up leaving? Who do they have opposite "the overrated" Peterson?

Powers or Bethel will start opposite Peterson. It's Bethel's time to shine. Big things are expected from him. The secondary is healthy & will be better than last season.

There is a reason why Peterson struggled the first third of the season.

 

[Southieinnc]

[QUOTE="cdumler7, post: 6671985, member: 5773"]I'm not saying the secondary will for sure be a weakness. I'm saying every team has those question marks. Sometimes they end up being a good thing. Such as before this last season for the Broncos everybody was saying the Bronco run game would be terrible after losing Moreno. If anything it ended up being a bit better as we had a couple of young guys emerge. It happens every year. At the same time our OL was supposed to be a strength with Clady coming back and the whole group just collapsed.[/QUOTE]

Didn't take it that way. Just took the opportunity to say what I thought was the Pats plan. We drafted these guys for reason. Kept them while Revis and Browner were here. Not so strange to expect them to step up.

 

[cdumler7]

[QUOTE="cdumler7, post: 6671985, member: 5773"]I'm not saying the secondary will for sure be a weakness. I'm saying every team has those question marks. Sometimes they end up being a good thing. Such as before this last season for the Broncos everybody was saying the Bronco run game would be terrible after losing Moreno. If anything it ended up being a bit better as we had a couple of young guys emerge. It happens every year. At the same time our OL was supposed to be a strength with Clady coming back and the whole group just collapsed.

Didn't take it that way. Just took the opportunity to say what I thought was the Pats plan. We drafted these guys for reason. Kept them while Revis and Browner were here. Not so strange to expect them to step up.[/QUOTE]

Understandable...At some point every year a team needs those rookies in those 2nd and 3rd years to step up and be the players they drafted them to be. Can't have a roster completely filled with veterans that you know exactly what you are going to get.

 

[CCF151]

The Cardinals' analysis is funny. The Cardinals improved the O-line across the board in it's biggest area of need, run blocking. Pass blocking wasn't much of an issue last season.

Pass rushing & the lack there of, should have been the focus of the analysis. The Cardinals didn't really add much to the pass rushing corps other than take a flyer on a vet coming off a injured & down year.

I agree, with Dockett gone and Campbell getting older they really should have found another piece or two for the d-line.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Every team has weaknesses. For the Pats I have no clue what they are doing with their secondary. For the Broncos the OL could possibly be starting 2 rookies to protect a quarterback already struggling to stay healthy for an entire year. Anytime you just focus on the weaknesses of course it is going to be hard to see success.

No disrespect cdumler but was this a AFCE thread? Just throwing it out there before all the Pat haters try to accuse the Pat fans of hijacking another thread.
I for one enjoyed what you and Southie had to say.