2017 Reds Talk

[Hit-n-Run]

With Fowler hitting the Bricks, I guess the Cubbies felt they needed an insurance policy in CF until they feel confident Albert Almora can play full-time.

If the Cubbies could have a do over, would they still sign Heyward to that huge deal?

The Reds finishing in 2nd place would be nice, but it'd probably mean that the overall division has continued to erode into mediocrity.

 

[JohnU]

The Reds finishing in 2nd place would be nice, but it'd probably mean that the overall division has continued to erode into mediocrity.

We may be alleging that the records the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates compiled 2 years ago was the norm rather than the exception. Winning 95 games is good for a divisional winner. They don't win 103 if there aren't 3 or 4 really shitty teams in their league, including 2 in their own division. So improvement in Cincy and Brew-town and the Cubs might find 100 a bit harder to reach.

If the Reds can win 85 games this year, they might finish 2nd, or maybe 8 or 10 games back of the Cubs. If the Reds go 85-77, that brings a couple of teams closer to the pack, meaning St. Louis could be fairly on its normal pace of 85/88 wins upward to 90. The Parrots are an 85 win team. The Cubs could be another 100-win team but if everyone improves, they can easily lose 1 more game a month.

The complexities of a 162-game schedule ... and I can see this Reds team winning 2 more games a month than in 2016 ... and that could be a .500 season. A break or two and they get to 85. I don't think that gives them a wild card but it's better than finishing last. Price needs a couple of pitchers who can get past the 5th inning if any of that is to happen.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

When I look at the current roster, I still see many questions unanswered. It's too early in the process for me to predict wins and losses.

At this point we don't know if Cozart and Phillips will both be in Cincy?

If neither is traded, where does Peraza fit in?

Will Homer and Mesoraco be healthy and productive?

Can Billy Hamilton play a full season?

Will they move an outfielder to make room for Winker?

Were Dan Straily and Adam Duvall one year wonders?

If the Brett Cecil signing is any indication of the cost associated with upgrading the pen..... is there really going to be any free agent upgrades?

The rotation appears to be Disco, Straily, Finnegan, and Homer and one TBA. Is there a veteran lurking on the free agent market? If not, who in the group of youngsters is most likely to enter ST as the favorite?

 

[JohnU]

they have to be thinking they can make Cody Ross a reliable pitcher.
Adleman appears to be in line for that otherwise.
Not sure if they are serious about Stephenson or Garrett.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Did you mean Cody Reed?

I don't think most fans pay attention to players assignment options and such, but most would be surprised to know that Garrett will be burning his 3rd and final option if he doesn't make the team.

I know you like Adleman and the Indy ball connection John, but I'd be surprised if he starts one of the first five ST games. Injuries could provide him with an opportunity, but at his age and stuff, I think there's too many younger top prospects knocking on the door for him to be their first choice.

I tend to think it's going to be Stephenson's spot to lose.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Maybe Garrett if he impresses early.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think the rotation answer may be found by following the money trail. Stephenson is a #1 pick and Garrett was over slotted to get him signed. The Reds have put a lot of eggs into those two baskets.

 

[JohnU]

I like Adleman for what he did, not where he was. He gets the ball over the plate and goes 6 innings.
I think the word on him has been, he's plugged in because they need to start somewhere. He's probably going to the bullpen. But he is a known commodity, unlike Bailey -- who hasn't earned squat IMO.

Hell, any one of 6 guys could step up and make that team. For all we know, Cingrani figured it out.

I think Stephenson can only lose the job, and he's running out of chances.

As well, are they committed to Lorenzen in the pen? If so, I don't like it from a policy standpoint.


Yes, Cody REED ... sorry on that one.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The consensus seems to be that Disco, Straily, Homer, and Finnegan are the rotation front runners heading into 2017 and the Reds need to fill the #5 slot.

I don't agree with that narrative. The Reds already have the backend of the rotation filled. They need a bona-fide #1 & #2 to emerge.

Homer was thought to be the man, but I think that ship has sailed. I think Straily is already at his ceiling. Disco looks like a solid #3. Of the four, I think Finnegan has the most upside.

Of all the known candidates trying to break into the rotation, Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed, and Amir Garrett all have the raw physical tools to headline this rotation. But do they have the intangibles that can't be taught through coaching?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think Lorenzen falls into the same category as a lot of college pitchers the Reds drafted. At the time they were drafting late in the 1st round and were looking for the best athletes available. A lot of the pitchers they took early were college reliever types. Lorenzen, Tony Cingrani, and Nick Howard (major flop) are the most notable names. Lorenzen is the best of that group.

I think the UCL scare gave the Reds an excuse to move Lorenzen to the pen. But I think he may have ended up there regardless.

IMO,
Rasiel Iglesias is the one that hurts the most. He showed flashes of being a top tier SP, but can't stay healthy long enough to consistently take the ball every fifth day.

 

[JohnU]

Not sure the trend is there for Iglesias injuries. He's been hurt but that could be poor training habits learned in Cuba. In the US now a couple of years, he may be past that. I like the guy in the rotation but it seems Price is still stuck in the closer mentality that I do sincerely hope was dashed against the rocks in the W.S. -- even if the outcome wasn't always as expected.

It all proves that finding a Cueto or Baumgarner in the middle of a country of 150,999,352 men is not all that easy.

What will go pretty far this year is if the Reds can actually HIT better, which will make those 4.58 ERAs look a little more respectable in a HR-friendly ballpark.

Lorenzen in the bullpen is not a dealbreaker for me unless they are trying to save games that they can't win because of guys like Badenhop and Hoover.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Unfortunately regression in hitters is as common as improving these days. The scouting reports are adjusted so much quicker in today's game.

I don't think what we saw during WS will impact the closer role mentality as much as there seems to be a trend toward multiple inning setup men.

In the end, both Chapman and Andrew Miller failed.

I agree with Jack Billingham's explanation on whether a guy can be effective on consecutive days or multiple innings. He states it's based on the individuals ability to physically recover. Some pithers simply can't do it.

 

[JohnU]

I think Chapman's mindset is that the hitters need to adapt to him rather than the other way around. In a one-inning flame-fest, AC is usually going to win that battle. Over more than 1 inning, all pitchers are more vulnerable. Except Pedro Villarreal. He just stays the same every inning.

Yeah ... hitters ... we could be realistic to think the league won't let Duvall hit 25 HR in the first 3 months ... alleging he wasn't just lucky 18 percent of the time anyhow.


But I think I will take 1 HR a week from a .240 hitter instead of 1 HR a year from a .220 hitter.

Thoughts on Travis Wood?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Did you know Adam Duvall is type 1 diabetic and wears an insulin pump during games? He looked fatigued the 2nd half. I'm sure the diabetes has to factor into it.

 

[JohnU]

Interesting. I don't know much about diabetes.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I like Travis woods better than Sean Marshall.

I like Travis Woods better than Brett Cecil as well.

It'll be interesting to see how teams approach Woods. He's always been tough on lefties and can serve in multiple roles. SP, long relief, loogy.

I'm sure his agent likes the Brett Cecil signing.

 

[JohnU]

Curious stuff, baseball.

Angels' John Lamb signed a minor league deal with the Angels on Friday, Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports.

Lamb was traded to the Rays earlier in the offseason but was released just two weeks later, and will now land in the Angels' organization. The 26-year-old underwent back surgery in October and is expected to miss the beginning of the season.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Well, Lamb lasted longer with the Rays than the Reds recent waiver wire pick up Gabriel Guerrero. He's been non-tendered already.

Claimed and waived all within 4 days. Sounds like a case mistaken identity.

 

[JohnU]

I think some of that is to make an agent happy. He gets a few bucks for the transaction and ... hey, ya never know ... he might pay off someday.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

It's pretty much the same scenario that had Dan Straily bouncing around during ST before landing in Cincinnati.

Similar to what my wife does when shopping. She'll buy something...... get it home......decide she doesn't like it..... returns it..... Repeat.