15 million in Cap

[-AC-]

Yeah, that's fair. But the cap isn't going to increase this way annually. And QB is just one position; it's not like all the money from that increase would go straight to his pockets. I still struggle to see us paying him $20 million if he doesn't win the SB next year.

Didn't someone just post something about it potentially increasing toward 150 million by 2016? And of course it wouldn't all go directly toward Kap or any other QB for that matter. But we all know, the QB gets the 'lions share' of the cap. It's entirely possible that after next season ends, 20 million could be on the low end for what teams deem a 'franchise caliber' QB's worth...

 

[-AC-]

We could give him 14 million a year with incentives. He threw for what 3200 yards last year? If he throws for 4000+ yards he gets 500K. If he has a 60%+ completion percentage another 500K. Wins the SB 2 million. Combine for 32+ TD passing and rushing another 500K. Just throwing somethings out there.

Most of the incentives you mention would be in favor of the team considering they are a run heavy offense... I can't imagine Kap's agent would agree to such terms, at least not in such a simple format... However, I think Kap is competitive enough to gamble on himself hitting incentives if they are remotely attainable...

 

[Gold Rush 86]

Most of the incentives you mention would be in favor of the team considering they are a run heavy offense... I can't imagine Kap's agent would agree to such terms, at least not in such a simple format... However, I think Kap is competitive enough to gamble on himself hitting incentives if they are remotely attainable...

I agree it would be harder for him to hit them cuz we are a run 1st team. But I think if we had a healthy Crabtree all year Kap could have thrown for 800 more yards. I mean 4000 yards is only 250 yards a game. Kap had 10 games throwing under 200 yards last year.

 

[-AC-]

I agree it would be harder for him to hit them cuz we are a run 1st team. But I think if we had a healthy Crabtree all year Kap could have thrown for 800 more yards. I mean 4000 yards is only 250 yards a game. Kap had 10 games throwing under 200 yards last year.

I don't think there is any doubt he can hit 4000 yards, but it all comes down to if he gets enough attempts to hit the mark. He was ranked 8th in the league in yards per attempt, so its possible he could have hit the mark this last season had he thrown it more...

 

[deep9er]

I don't think there is any doubt he can hit 4000 yards, but it all comes down to if he gets enough attempts to hit the mark. He was ranked 8th in the league in yards per attempt, so its possible he could have hit the mark this last season had he thrown it more...

Kaep is ok between the 20's.....it is the red zone that kills us. so yes, if he threw more, then the yards per attempt remain high. that said, if he does hit 4,000 yards I'd think we're not doing well? I'd think a good portion of that is coming from behind?

Kaep is on a good team which affords him more opportunities to do well. he is supposed to have good stats.

 

[MHSL82]

I agree it would be harder for him to hit them cuz we are a run 1st team. But I think if we had a healthy Crabtree all year Kap could have thrown for 800 more yards. I mean 4000 yards is only 250 yards a game. Kap had 10 games throwing under 200 yards last year.

If those sub-200 games were all 200 even, he'd have 490 more yards (3687 total). 200 is a good minimum in any given game, but his 412 against Green Bay game and 310 against Arizona are not normal either. He has to throw 32.5 times per game at his average to get 250 yards. He averaged 26 passes per game. Note that completion percentage doesn't affect YPA outside of number of yards. So if he completes more passes but maintains the 7.69 per throw, it just means they are either passing shorter or getting less YAC. That said, if he threw 40 1-yd TDs, I wouldn't be complaining about the YPA.

Not making an argument either way with those numbers above, just adding them for discussion.

 

[MHSL82]

I don't think there is any doubt he can hit 4000 yards, but it all comes down to if he gets enough attempts to hit the mark. He was ranked 8th in the league in yards per attempt, so its possible he could have hit the mark this last season had he thrown it more...

I think that there's a huge doubt in whether he'll get enough attempts... but this system has bugged me. I get that sometimes you pass less because of the QB, but sometimes you pass less because of the RB, the defense, the coach, the system. So when people bitched about our low yards per game numbers with our two QBs, it was like WTF? You need more than 7.69 (8th in 2013, 1st in 2012) or 7.97 YPA (Smith 3rd or 4th in 2012)?

I guess it should make me feel better that they complained about Kaepernick's yards per game, not just Smith's, but it doesn't because both had top ten YPAs. Yes, some of that is due to the running team making the defense gamble.

 

[deep9er]

If those sub-200 games were all 200 even, he'd have 490 more yards (3687 total). 200 is a good minimum in any given game, but his 412 against Green Bay game and 310 against Arizona are not normal either. He has to throw 32.5 times per game at his average to get 250 yards. He averaged 26 passes per game. Note that completion percentage doesn't affect YPA outside of number of yards. So if he completes more passes but maintains the 7.69 per throw, it just means they are either passing shorter or getting less YAC. That said, if he threw 40 1-yd TDs, I wouldn't be complaining about the YPA.
Not making an argument either way with those numbers above, just adding them for discussion.

don't think Kaep needs to throw more, he needs to complete more.

yes, if he completes more in the red zone - although short - that's huge.

 

[-AC-]

Kaep is ok between the 20's.....it is the red zone that kills us. so yes, if he threw more, then the yards per attempt remain high. that said, if he does hit 4,000 yards I'd think we're not doing well? I'd think a good portion of that is coming from behind?

Kaep is on a good team which affords him more opportunities to do well. he is supposed to have good stats.

Interestingly enough, it appears Kaepernick's QB rating actually goes up slightly in the redzone (from 91.6 to 92.9)

Quarterback Rating in Red Zone - 2013 - NFL Season Statistics

I mentioned in another thread that SF went from 28th in RZ TD scoring% to 15th since Kap has been inserted...

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) on TeamRankings.com

Of course the first link doesn't account for Kap's rushing TD's, so you will have to factor that in as well. I found another article that showed how unbalanced SF had been in the RZ, and how the run dominated (I didn't post the link because it was only through November, so it did not account for the whole season or how Crabtree's return might have altered any stats). I guess one could make a case that perhaps defenses keyed on the run and allowed Kap to look better than he actually was. But at the same time you could probably make a case that the offensive coordinator showed very little originality and played it safe more often than not, and could have been much more balanced...

I'm not trying to come to Kap's aid in the argument, but your statement made me wonder how bad things really were. Overall it looks like the whole team can certainly be more efficient in the RZ, but I'm not sure you can definitively say Kap is much more better between the 20's than he is in the RZ (at least not from what the stats say)...

 

[purguy12]

I like the idea(forgot who mention it, I read it somewhere.) Over a 3 year 48 million dollar contract. This would buy out this year and his 2 franchise years. So he still gets more money then he would get the next 3 years and gives him insurance and it helps the 49ers out with the cap for now.

Will he go for it I would say no but u never know.

 

[MHSL82]

Interestingly enough, it appears Kaepernick's QB rating actually goes up slightly in the redzone (from 91.6 to 92.9)

Quarterback Rating in Red Zone - 2013 - NFL Season Statistics

I mentioned in another thread that SF went from 28th in RZ TD scoring% to 15th since Kap has been inserted...

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) on TeamRankings.com

Of course the first link doesn't account for Kap's rushing TD's, so you will have to factor that in as well. I found another article that showed how unbalanced SF had been in the RZ, and how the run dominated (I didn't post the link because it was only through November, so it did not account for the whole season or how Crabtree's return might have altered any stats). I guess one could make a case that perhaps defenses keyed on the run and allowed Kap to look better than he actually was. But at the same time you could probably make a case that the offensive coordinator showed very little originality and played it safe more often than not, and could have been much more balanced...

I'm not trying to come to Kap's aid in the argument, but your statement made me wonder how bad things really were. Overall it looks like the whole team can certainly be more efficient in the RZ, but I'm not sure you can definitively say Kap is much more better between the 20's than he is in the RZ (at least not from what the stats say)...

Touchdowns and interceptions have a huge effect on QB rating. Maybe the potentially few TDs in the Red Zone make up for the better completion percentage or YPA between the 20's. I haven't had time to look at your link yet so I don't know.