ZiPS Projections 2014

[Heathbar012]

Both The Susser and I saw what you did there.

And we are NOT pleased.

Thinnest at the ML-level.

I agree that Pagan's health is crucial to the offense, but I think that storm could be weathered better this year than last (especially if that is the only injury and for his usual 40-70 games). The defense up the middle scares me without Craw, and as with Super Bowl Champion Defenses, you build through the middle.

I endorse the breakout year for the Brandons. I'm optimistic, too. I just see the only major holes being back-up SS and C (and of course an upgrade on the #4 OF and another proven BP arm never hurts). Again, just at the current ML-ready level. Hopefully, Adrianza and all of the catching prospects look good in ST.

 

[Heathbar012]

I agree. Posey needs to be moved sooner rather than later. 3B and 1B are really his only possible destinations (I guess with a possibility of 2B, but I just don't see him doing that at the MLB level).

I'm pretty well convinced that this is Panda's last year in San Francisco, regardless. He seems to at least have a few smart people around him, and smart people see that his best future is in the American League. I expect Buster to break camp as the starting 3B in 2015. Granted, an MVP year (which I believe Pablo is capable of) could convince the brass to deem the marketing and performance worth the major investment, but then the Giants would likely have another World Championship, so who would really give a flying expletive? Sadly, the best way to make sure he stays is for him to have a decidedly average year where he balloons and shrinks throughout the season. That isn't good for his health or 2014, so I'm not going to root for that.

I think Buster could conceivably handle 2B, but I love the idea of his arm at the hot corner, and his slower lateral movement is masked by a SS that goes to his right exceedingly well. Plus, I think Susac and Panik will be ready by 2015, and I wanna see what those guys can do at that level.

 

[SF11704]

I'm thinking we will surprise quite a few non-believers this year. i think we are very solid across all dimensions. Offense, defense snd pitching. Not spectacular but very solid and hopefully very consistent. I expect a monster year from Panda and Buster. I also think the Herk proves it wasn't a fluke. I also think the both Brandons come into their own this year. The only 'worry' spot for me is the SP. Can't have a repeat of last year. Need Timmy 3.0 to arrive on day 1. Need Cainer to regain his form. No questions about MadBum. I liked the Hudson signing and I think we will reap some really nice benifits from it. I'm hoping that both him and Timmy have years like a solid #3. Vogs has promise but not sure what we will see in 2014 from him. I think the critical piece of the puzzle is Timmy.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm pretty well convinced that this is Panda's last year in San Francisco, regardless. He seems to at least have a few smart people around him, and smart people see that his best future is in the American League. I expect Buster to break camp as the starting 3B in 2015. Granted, an MVP year (which I believe Pablo is capable of) could convince the brass to deem the marketing and performance worth the major investment, but then the Giants would likely have another World Championship, so who would really give a flying expletive? Sadly, the best way to make sure he stays is for him to have a decidedly average year where he balloons and shrinks throughout the season. That isn't good for his health or 2014, so I'm not going to root for that.

I think Buster could conceivably handle 2B, but I love the idea of his arm at the hot corner, and his slower lateral movement is masked by a SS that goes to his right exceedingly well. Plus, I think Susac and Panik will be ready by 2015, and I wanna see what those guys can do at that level.

I also think that the Vegas odds are on Panda moving on by 2015. He will either be dealt in July/August (not likely, because if he has trade value, than we will likely be buyers rather than sellers) or walk via FA (hopefully with a QO attached). If he has a QO-worthy season, than he will be priced out of the Giants desires, and if he does not, he will have played himself out of a job.

I disagree that 4th OF is a weakness, Blanco is a ++ defender and a decent bat. I actually prefer him starting in left over Morse, but that ship has sailed. The addition of Morse does make us more able to withstand a potential Pagan down-year/injury, though. So that is good.

I believe Panik will be on the SF/Fresno shuttle this year, and may be pushing Scoots by the end of the year. I am not saying Panik is a huge prospect, but I think saying 2015 is his ETA is selling him a bit short.

I actually REALLY like our SS depth. Adrianza provides ++++ defense with a projectable bat (per scouts, not minor league numbers), then we have Arias with slightly below average D and a strong bat and Abreu who is good if he does not trip over the foul line on his way to field the position.

Susac I am still in a wait-and-see position on him. I think we are all forgetting that our established backup is still SUPER young, was a bonus-baby/high prospect in his lower-minors days and had an amazing rookie year in '12. Sanchez may be the guy we should be looking at as the guy to push Posey rather than Susac. I actually think Susac will be in a different org come ST '15.

 

[tzill]

Thinnest at the ML-level.

I agree that Pagan's health is crucial to the offense, but I think that storm could be weathered better this year than last (especially if that is the only injury and for his usual 40-70 games). The defense up the middle scares me without Craw, and as with Super Bowl Champion Defenses, you build through the middle.

I endorse the breakout year for the Brandons. I'm optimistic, too. I just see the only major holes being back-up SS and C (and of course an upgrade on the #4 OF and another proven BP arm never hurts). Again, just at the current ML-ready level. Hopefully, Adrianza and all of the catching prospects look good in ST.

I think we're OK in CF for 20 games or so with Shark. More than that, I dunno. I'm OK with Arias and Abreu up the middle if either Craw or Scoots were to miss 20 games. Again, more than that it gets dicey.

I'm not as down on Hanchez as you are; I think he improved quite a bit last year with his receiving skills and should get better. He's a 280 switch hitting catcher -- that's pretty good depth.

I think Shark as the #4 OF with JCP as the #5 is again pretty good. I'd like another BP arm; there we can definitely agree. Maybe Law forces the issue? Right now I see:

Romo/JA/KCya/Lopez/Hembree/Petit

with Machi/Dunning/Huff/etc. vying for the last slot.

 

[tzill]

I'm pretty well convinced that this is Panda's last year in San Francisco, regardless. He seems to at least have a few smart people around him, and smart people see that his best future is in the American League. I expect Buster to break camp as the starting 3B in 2015. Granted, an MVP year (which I believe Pablo is capable of) could convince the brass to deem the marketing and performance worth the major investment, but then the Giants would likely have another World Championship, so who would really give a flying expletive? Sadly, the best way to make sure he stays is for him to have a decidedly average year where he balloons and shrinks throughout the season. That isn't good for his health or 2014, so I'm not going to root for that.

I think Buster could conceivably handle 2B, but I love the idea of his arm at the hot corner, and his slower lateral movement is masked by a SS that goes to his right exceedingly well. Plus, I think Susac and Panik will be ready by 2015, and I wanna see what those guys can do at that level.

Funny, I expect him to sign an extension this Spring. I guess we'll see...

 

[tzill]

I'm thinking we will surprise quite a few non-believers this year. i think we are very solid across all dimensions. Offense, defense snd pitching. Not spectacular but very solid and hopefully very consistent. I expect a monster year from Panda and Buster. I also think the Herk proves it wasn't a fluke. I also think the both Brandons come into their own this year. The only 'worry' spot for me is the SP. Can't have a repeat of last year. Need Timmy 3.0 to arrive on day 1. Need Cainer to regain his form. No questions about MadBum. I liked the Hudson signing and I think we will reap some really nice benifits from it. I'm hoping that both him and Timmy have years like a solid #3. Vogs has promise but not sure what we will see in 2014 from him. I think the critical piece of the puzzle is Timmy.

 

[tzill]

I also think that the Vegas odds are on Panda moving on by 2015. He will either be dealt in July/August (not likely, because if he has trade value, than we will likely be buyers rather than sellers) or walk via FA (hopefully with a QO attached). If he has a QO-worthy season, than he will be priced out of the Giants desires, and if he does not, he will have played himself out of a job.

I disagree that 4th OF is a weakness, Blanco is a ++ defender and a decent bat. I actually prefer him starting in left over Morse, but that ship has sailed. The addition of Morse does make us more able to withstand a potential Pagan down-year/injury, though. So that is good.

I believe Panik will be on the SF/Fresno shuttle this year, and may be pushing Scoots by the end of the year. I am not saying Panik is a huge prospect, but I think saying 2015 is his ETA is selling him a bit short.

I actually REALLY like our SS depth. Adrianza provides ++++ defense with a projectable bat (per scouts, not minor league numbers), then we have Arias with slightly below average D and a strong bat and Abreu who is good if he does not trip over the foul line on his way to field the position.

Susac I am still in a wait-and-see position on him. I think we are all forgetting that our established backup is still SUPER young, was a bonus-baby/high prospect in his lower-minors days and had an amazing rookie year in '12. Sanchez may be the guy we should be looking at as the guy to push Posey rather than Susac. I actually think Susac will be in a different org come ST '15.

We will get you for that. Don't know when; or where. But you will pay.

 

[Heathbar012]

The bottom line is there are very few holes in this roster. When you're discussing whether the biggest need is a slight upgrade at back-up SS, C, #4 OF or 5th/6th bullpen arm, the team is in a pretty good position. I happen to rank back-up SS higher on my list because I believe there is the biggest potential drop-off in productivity. This isn't solely because I don't trust Adrianza's bat or Arias' glove more than BC's respective attributes, but because of the days that Scoots and Panda won't be able to take off when their best back-ups are forced to start. I also would feel safer if Blanco were the 5th OF and someone with Gary Brown's abilities (though w/ more experience) were the 3rd/4th. Admittedly, that is higher on my list than improving upon Hector Sanchez, but it's close. The extra bullpen arm seems even more like a luxury, but it could end up being the most important upgrade. It is also the position that I have the most faith in a rookie to step up. Hence, I see BC's health as an unexpected, important crux to a good season.

 

[Heathbar012]

Funny, I expect him to sign an extension this Spring. I guess we'll see...

I'd be all for it because I don't think this front office will handcuff themselves, financially. Of course, players can always flame out, and athletes with weight issues usually do so quickly. It's a gamble either way, but one that I think is worth it this spring, but likely not this fall.

 

[calsnowskier]

The bottom line is there are very few holes in this roster. When you're discussing whether the biggest need is a slight upgrade at back-up SS, C, #4 OF or 5th/6th bullpen arm, the team is in a pretty good position. I happen to rank back-up SS higher on my list because I believe there is the biggest potential drop-off in productivity. This isn't solely because I don't trust Adrianza's bat or Arias' glove more than BC's respective attributes, but because of the days that Scoots and Panda won't be able to take off when their best back-ups are forced to start. I also would feel safer if Blanco were the 5th OF and someone with Gary Brown's abilities (though w/ more experience) were the 3rd/4th. Admittedly, that is higher on my list than improving upon Hector Sanchez, but it's close. The extra bullpen arm seems even more like a luxury, but it could end up being the most important upgrade. It is also the position that I have the most faith in a rookie to step up. Hence, I see BC's health as an unexpected, important crux to a good season.

It is good sign that we are debating the merits of the 23rd spot on the roster.

As for Craw's hypothetical injury causing issues elsewhere, I have 2 arguments...

1) Any injury to a solid starter will cause issues throughout the lineup. There is no avoiding that without spending even more than the doggies.

2) Assuming Arias takes over at SS while BC is recovering, he would still act as the primary option for Panda-Rest. Adrianza would play SS and Arias would move to 3B (his better position, anyway). If they decide to start Adrianza instead, than Arias would still act as the primary BU to all 3 skill infield positions.

 

[tzill]

The bottom line is there are very few holes in this roster. When you're discussing whether the biggest need is a slight upgrade at back-up SS, C, #4 OF or 5th/6th bullpen arm, the team is in a pretty good position. I happen to rank back-up SS higher on my list because I believe there is the biggest potential drop-off in productivity. This isn't solely because I don't trust Adrianza's bat or Arias' glove more than BC's respective attributes, but because of the days that Scoots and Panda won't be able to take off when their best back-ups are forced to start. I also would feel safer if Blanco were the 5th OF and someone with Gary Brown's abilities (though w/ more experience) were the 3rd/4th. Admittedly, that is higher on my list than improving upon Hector Sanchez, but it's close. The extra bullpen arm seems even more like a luxury, but it could end up being the most important upgrade. It is also the position that I have the most faith in a rookie to step up. Hence, I see BC's health as an unexpected, important crux to a good season.

Well, critics would call the SP a relatively big hole. They'd say that Cain was terrible early last year, Timmy's been bad for two years, Tron was hurt/ineffective, and Huddy is coming off injury. I think those folks would argue that the SP overshadows back-up SS by quite a lot.

Then there are those who feel the RP is very mediocre, with Romo an injury liability, JA hurt/ineffective, Casilla declining, and Hembree unproven. They'd rank RP well above backup SS as a concern as well.

Myself, I think the SP and RP will be solid, and Arias/Abreu/Adrianza as good depth with Panik lurking. As for that #5 OF with Brown's abilities, I give you JCP. Also, don't rule out Kiesh.

In short...I'm with you -- no glaring holes but I'd like to see another RP.

 

[SFGRTB]

I'm not sure I believe the Giants are ready to let Pablo walk and waste the millions of extra Panda hats they have stored under AT&T park....

From a marketing stand point, it's very hard to see the Giants giving up on the fun-loving Panda. He's always been marketing gold for the Giants, whether it was putting fans in the seats late in 2008, getting fans to vote him into the All-Star game in 2009 (and ever since), or the gnomes/bobble-heads/panda hats. He markets to the kids so well. Granted, they are shoving the Brandon/Brandon thing down our throats so maybe they preparing for a possible transition.

On the field his production is sporadic, but we all know how awesome he is when he's hot (watch those links, they'll make you happy). I think the Giants would love to sign him in the spring because I believe that Pablo would get a huge contract in the offseason due to the big season ahead of him. Will he sign in the spring though? He'd be smart not too, but the Giants are going to make a big effort to lock him up.

Would you guys sign him to the same contract the Giants gave Hunter Pence?

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm not sure I believe the Giants are ready to let Pablo walk and waste the millions of extra Panda hats they have stored under AT&T park....

From a marketing stand point, it's very hard to see the Giants giving up on the fun-loving Panda. He's always been marketing gold for the Giants, whether it was putting fans in the seats late in 2008, getting fans to vote him into the All-Star game in 2009 (and ever since), or the gnomes/bobble-heads/panda hats. He markets to the kids so well. Granted, they are shoving the Brandon/Brandon thing down our throats so maybe they preparing for a possible transition.

On the field his production is sporadic, but we all know how awesome he is when he's hot (watch those links, they'll make you happy). I think the Giants would love to sign him in the spring because I believe that Pablo would get a huge contract in the offseason due to the big season ahead of him. Will he sign in the spring though? He'd be smart not too, but the Giants are going to make a big effort to lock him up.

Would you guys sign him to the same contract the Giants gave Hunter Pence?

5 Years????

No way in hell. I would not go longer than 3 years. He has yet to show that he will take the game seriously. He has the potential to be a perennial MVP candidate, but he spends too much time at the plate to meet that potential.

 

[SFGRTB]

5 Years????

No way in hell. I would not go longer than 3 years. He has yet to show that he will take the game seriously. He has the potential to be a perennial MVP candidate, but he spends too much time at the plate to meet that potential.

I got a good laugh.

For the Giants to sign him this spring, it's likely going to take more years than average value of his contract. Pence is 3 years older than Pablo. Yes, Pablo hasn't shown he can stay on the field the last 3 years, though by most accounts he has shown a serious commitment to his body this offseason to get into shape (money talks). It is unreasonable to think his injury history is behind him if he keeps him body in decent condition, and that he'll enjoy playing in this body that he's worked for? Both his hamate bones are gone. Time will tell, and I guess Pablo is really the only one who can answer this. I don't think 5 years is all that outrageous, he'd be 33 at the end of that contract and could cash in again in the AL as a DH at that point. Hell, maybe there be a league-wide DH soon gaah and he could be a bargain for us.

5 years $90MM wouldn't be all that bad for a potential MVP candidate. For a team always seeking hitters willing to play in this ballpark, it seems silly to me that we'd let an established one like Pablo walk.

 

[calsnowskier]

That's the prob with Panda, though. He has not SHOWN the ability to maintain his weight over any extended period. He has one good off-season, entering his walk year, and you see that as a sign he has turned the corner and he should be fine or the next 5 years? I think signing him to anything longer than 3 years this spring will not only ruin his 214 season, but potentially ruin his career (not for him, obviously, as he will have hit the lottery).

I am nt really thrilled with the idea of a 3-year deal with him right now, but like Pence, maybe you have o over-pay in order to stay ahead of the market and because replacing him is more difficult than keeping him.

 

[tzill]

5 Years????

No way in hell. I would not go longer than 3 years. He has yet to show that he will take the game seriously. He has the potential to be a perennial MVP candidate, but he spends too much time at the plate to meet that potential.

Then you wouldn't get Panda. Not unless you were willing to go 3/75. What you fail to grasp is that the market is going to give him at least six years/120 million next fall. We might be able to get him at Hunter money if we sign him in ST.

There is very little downside for an AL team as they can DH him if he balloons up.

 

[tzill]

I got a good laugh.

For the Giants to sign him this spring, it's likely going to take more years than average value of his contract. Pence is 3 years older than Pablo. Yes, Pablo hasn't shown he can stay on the field the last 3 years, though by most accounts he has shown a serious commitment to his body this offseason to get into shape (money talks). It is unreasonable to think his injury history is behind him if he keeps him body in decent condition, and that he'll enjoy playing in this body that he's worked for? Both his hamate bones are gone. Time will tell, and I guess Pablo is really the only one who can answer this. I don't think 5 years is all that outrageous, he'd be 33 at the end of that contract and could cash in again in the AL as a DH at that point. Hell, maybe there be a league-wide DH soon gaah and he could be a bargain for us.

5 years $90MM wouldn't be all that bad for a potential MVP candidate. For a team always seeking hitters willing to play in this ballpark, it seems silly to me that we'd let an established one like Pablo walk.

I can't see SabeySabes letting a homegrown slugger walk.

 

[tzill]

That's the prob with Panda, though. He has not SHOWN the ability to maintain his weight over any extended period. He has one good off-season, entering his walk year, and you see that as a sign he has turned the corner and he should be fine or the next 5 years? I think signing him to anything longer than 3 years this spring will not only ruin his 214 season, but potentially ruin his career (not for him, obviously, as he will have hit the lottery).

I am nt really thrilled with the idea of a 3-year deal with him right now, but like Pence, maybe you have o over-pay in order to stay ahead of the market and because replacing him is more difficult than keeping him.

You've hit it with your last sentence. A 3 year deal would have to be for ridiculous money. That is, they'd have to pay him more per year than anybody on the team...and by a lot. No way his agent lets him sign for 3/60...no way.

Replacing him would be more difficult AND more expensive than keeping him. They won't give him a no-trade clause so the option of dealing him to the AL if he goes full Fielder on us will be there. We might not get a ton back in talent, but we'd be able to get out from under the contract pretty easily.

Last, I don't think anyone is convinced he's "turned the corner" with his weight issue. We're all cautiously optimistic. But at this point it's a calculated risk to sign him to moderately big money to keep him under control for the next five years. Because if he has figured it out, Pence money will end up being a bargain and we've got a solid middle of the order (Belt/Posey/Panda/Pence) for the rest of the decade. For a team that plays half its games at AT&T that would be pretty amazing, and a tribute to the FO being able to draft sluggers.

I really can't see them NOT signing Panda this month.

 

[msgkings322]

You've hit it with your last sentence. A 3 year deal would have to be for ridiculous money. That is, they'd have to pay him more per year than anybody on the team...and by a lot. No way his agent lets him sign for 3/60...no way.

Replacing him would be more difficult AND more expensive than keeping him. They won't give him a no-trade clause so the option of dealing him to the AL if he goes full Fielder on us will be there. We might not get a ton back in talent, but we'd be able to get out from under the contract pretty easily.

Last, I don't think anyone is convinced he's "turned the corner" with his weight issue. We're all cautiously optimistic. But at this point it's a calculated risk to sign him to moderately big money to keep him under control for the next five years. Because if he has figured it out, Pence money will end up being a bargain and we've got a solid middle of the order (Belt/Posey/Panda/Pence) for the rest of the decade. For a team that plays half its games at AT&T that would be pretty amazing, and a tribute to the FO being able to draft sluggers.

I really can't see them NOT signing Panda this month.

You're always so confident...
You really can't see that?
You make a decent case but this one is as up in the air as it gets. I can see them signing him soon, signing him later, or not signing him at all and doing a QO. And his people have their agenda too, why would they sign so early?

Furthermore, I don't think you are being realistic about how much catching Posey can do, Panda might have to go for that reason too.