ZiPS Projections 2014

[tzill]

Interesting numbers: 2014 ZiPS Projections ? San Francisco Giants | FanGraphs Baseball

A couple of notes:

1. 7 of the 8 starters are projected to 2+ WAR. And only one player (Trout) in all of MLB projects better than Buster at 6.5 WAR. 2.0 WAR is rough code for "solid starter" and only Morse (0.2 WAR) is below that.
2. Blanco (1.3), Sanchez (1.1) and Arias (0.7) project as solid bench players. Abreu (0.5) is acceptable and ZiPS doesn't like JCP (0.1) that much.
3. 3 of the 5 SP project to 2+ WAR. Timmy (1.3) and Tron (0.6) get no love.
4. Romo (0.8), Petit (0.4), and JLo (0.2) are projected to be solid bullpen arms. Casilla, Hembree and Affeldt (0.1) are meh. Dunning (0.0) gets no love.

Overall, I think this is a pretty positive projection of the offense. The SP projection is skewed by Timmy's 1.5 seasons starting in 2012. I expect him to be much closer to the second half of 2013. Tron, who knows?

For whatever reason, none of the projections are good for the bullpen, which to me feels wrong. Casilla especially is projected to be poor, but I just don't see it. Morse will give back some oWAR because of negative dWAR, but even then I think 0.2 is too low. He'll be lifted early and often for defense in the 7th.

More and more I see this season hingeing on Timmy. If I'm right and he's evolved into Timmy 3.0 then we'll be just fine.

 

[msgkings322]

Depends on how you define 'just fine'. If it's winning the division, pretty unlikely. If it's making the playoffs, I'd say yeah pretty good shot.

 

[the_broom]

I understand that ESPN has the Giants one of the poorer teams this year, ending about ten games under .500..

Prove 'em wrong, guys!

 

[tzill]

Depends on how you define 'just fine'. If it's winning the division, pretty unlikely. If it's making the playoffs, I'd say yeah pretty good shot.

To me, 90+ wins is "just fine." We can't spend $200MM to insure 97 wins.

 

[msgkings322]

I understand that ESPN has the Giants one of the poorer teams this year, ending about ten games under .500..

Prove 'em wrong, guys!

That can't be right. Do you have a link?

 

[tzill]

I understand that ESPN has the Giants one of the poorer teams this year, ending about ten games under .500..

Prove 'em wrong, guys!

Yeah, ESPN follows the "Timmy will be awful because of his 2012 and first half of 2013 and we will ignore the pitcher he was in the second half of 2013" mantra.

Again, if we get that Timmy then I agree.

I think we'll get Timmy 3.0 -- 200 IP 3.75 ERA 115 ERA+ 2.5 WAR.

 

[tzill]

That can't be right. Do you have a link?

Ranking the teams: 24 through 19 - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Schoenfeld has us #20.

 

[msgkings322]

it would take more than another year of Bad Timmy to put us 10 games under. it would take another year of Bad Matty too. which is maybe what ESPN is thinking.

 

[tzill]

it would take more than another year of Bad Timmy to put us 10 games under. it would take another year of Bad Matty too. which is maybe what ESPN is thinking.

His reasoning:

1. Hunter will drop off from 2013
2. Buster peaked in 2012
3. Giants won't be healthy
4. Timmy will be awful
5. Too many iffy starters in general

He does say that Cain will rebound.

He discounts:
1. Pagan's importance
2. Scoots is healthy
3. Buster put on muscle to get stronger
4. Panda dropped 35 lbs
5. Belt seems to have figured it out
6. Morse is an upgrade at the 7 spot
7. Crawford is healthy
8. Hudson instead of Zito
9. Timmy 3.0
10. Tron isn't pitching in the WBC.

Just sayin....

 

[Giantsmojo]

Ranking the teams: 24 through 19 - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Schoenfeld has us #20.

at least 84% of their followers have the Giants over .500, yet ESPN has them 10 games under .500.

 

[Giantsmojo]

it would take more than another year of Bad Timmy to put us 10 games under. it would take another year of Bad Matty too. which is maybe what ESPN is thinking.

Plus a bad year from Vogy.

His reasoning:

1. Hunter will drop off from 2013
2. Buster peaked in 2012
3. Giants won't be healthy
4. Timmy will be awful
5. Too many iffy starters in general

He does say that Cain will rebound.

He discounts:
1. Pagan's importance
2. Scoots is healthy
3. Buster put on muscle to get stronger
4. Panda dropped 35 lbs
5. Belt seems to have figured it out
6. Morse is an upgrade at the 7 spot
7. Crawford is healthy
8. Hudson instead of Zito
9. Timmy 3.0
10. Tron isn't pitching in the WBC.

Just sayin....

Yeah I like how he had Scutaro as having a good year but totally leaves out that he only played in 127 games.

 

[Heathbar012]

Plus a bad year from Vogy.



Yeah I like how he had Scutaro as having a good year but totally leaves out that he only played in 127 games.

He might only play in 130 games this year, too, but I think Arias is ready to start 50-75 games per year. As per usual, everything will come down to health, and the person that might be most important health-wise, surprisingly, could be Crawford (didn't think that would be the case).

 

[calsnowskier]

He might only play in 130 games this year, too, but I think Arias is ready to start 50-75 games per year. As per usual, everything will come down to health, and the person that might be most important health-wise, surprisingly, could be Crawford (didn't think that would be the case).

Why do you put the emphasis on Craw? Even if he falls into a black-hole, hitting-wise, his defense warrants his inclusion in the lineup. And if his defense happens to falter (or his bat disappears completely), we have Adrianza ready to step in with even better D.

Again, I agree that the key is health, but I am more concerned with Pagan, Sandoval, Posey and Belt. I think we can live through one SP going down/having a bad year since we have about 4 guys ready to compete for a 5-slot (Escobar, Petit, Willis, Huff, Kick...)

 

[Heathbar012]

Why do you put the emphasis on Craw? Even if he falls into a black-hole, hitting-wise, his defense warrants his inclusion in the lineup. And if his defense happens to falter (or his bat disappears completely), we have Adrianza ready to step in with even better D.

Again, I agree that the key is health, but I am more concerned with Pagan, Sandoval, Posey and Belt. I think we can live through one SP going down/having a bad year since we have about 4 guys ready to compete for a 5-slot (Escobar, Petit, Willis, Huff, Kick...)

I agree with your assessment, and of course, Buster or Panda going down would be an obvious blow to the offense (which we've seen at various times), and to be clear, I am not fearful of a possible BC regression. An OBP near .300 would be fine (and a slight drop-off from his .311 in 550 PAs last year). He was able to do that with limited experience while swinging at a lot more pitches than I think he would if he were in a different spot in the line-up.

My reasoning for his health being most important is the hit taken if Adrianza is thrust into a situation where he has to start 75-100 games. I have no faith in him maintaining an OBP anywhere near .300 at the MLB level (maybe next season?). Granted, Arias can play ML-average SS, and there wouldn't be much offensive drop-off, but that cuts into the days that Panda and Scutaro can take off. I wasn't so much making a point of BC's overwhelming worth with what he provides, but more the potentially awful situation, if he goes down.

His defensive capabilities combined with his proven "mini-ability" with the bat at an important position in the field make him a linchpin to the playoff plans. Sure, anyone can bat 8th, and I assume Adrianza can handle the slack with the leather, but I'd rather him not have to prove it on a regular basis this season. It is nice to have some depth, but I think we're thinnest at SS and C. Both of the starters at that position have been lucky so far (minus a freak Cousins train, of course), and while losing a former MVP is always bad, I wanted to highlight BC's importance to the season.

 

[tzill]

Why do you put the emphasis on Craw? Even if he falls into a black-hole, hitting-wise, his defense warrants his inclusion in the lineup. And if his defense happens to falter (or his bat disappears completely), we have Adrianza ready to step in with even better D.

Again, I agree that the key is health, but I am more concerned with Pagan, Sandoval, Posey and Belt. I think we can live through one SP going down/having a bad year since we have about 4 guys ready to compete for a 5-slot (Escobar, Petit, Willis, Huff, Kick...)

I expect both Brandons to have breakout years in 2014. I can see them both manning their positions for the Giants for the next decade, along with Buster and Panda. I'm much more concerned about Pagans health...he's only played more than 125 games twice in his 8 year career.

As for the SP, I've said the key will be Timmah...if he's a solid #3 (which is my expectation) AND Oxy stays healthy then we're going to win 90+.

 

[tzill]

I agree with your assessment, and of course, Buster or Panda going down would be an obvious blow to the offense (which we've seen at various times), and to be clear, I am not fearful of a possible BC regression. An OBP near .300 would be fine (and a slight drop-off from his .311 in 550 PAs last year). He was able to do that with limited experience while swinging at a lot more pitches than I think he would if he were in a different spot in the line-up.

My reasoning for his health being most important is the hit taken if Adrianza is thrust into a situation where he has to start 75-100 games. I have no faith in him maintaining an OBP anywhere near .300 at the MLB level (maybe next season?). Granted, Arias can play ML-average SS, and there wouldn't be much offensive drop-off, but that cuts into the days that Panda and Scutaro can take off. I wasn't so much making a point of BC's overwhelming worth with what he provides, but more the potentially awful situation, if he goes down.

His defensive capabilities combined with his proven "mini-ability" with the bat at an important position in the field make him a linchpin to the playoff plans. Sure, anyone can bat 8th, and I assume Adrianza can handle the slack with the leather, but I'd rather him not have to prove it on a regular basis this season. It is nice to have some depth, but I think we're thinnest at SS and C. Both of the starters at that position have been lucky so far (minus a freak Cousins train, of course), and while losing a former MVP is always bad, I wanted to highlight BC's importance to the season.

Both The Susser and I saw what you did there.

And we are NOT pleased.

 

[msgkings322]

I expect both Brandons to have breakout years in 2014. I can see them both manning their positions for the Giants for the next decade, along with Buster and Panda. I'm much more concerned about Pagans health...he's only played more than 125 games twice in his 8 year career.

As for the SP, I've said the key will be Timmah...if he's a solid #3 (which is my expectation) AND Oxy stays healthy then we're going to win 90+.

If all 4 of those guys are at their positions for a decade, don't we run into problems with how to keep Posey in the lineup? He can't catch 150 games for the next 5 years, and I can't see sitting Belt every time Posey needs to play first...

 

[calsnowskier]

If all 4 of those guys are at their positions for a decade, don't we run into problems with how to keep Posey in the lineup? He can't catch 150 games for the next 5 years, and I can't see sitting Belt every time Posey needs to play first...

I agree. Posey needs to be moved sooner rather than later. 3B and 1B are really his only possible destinations (I guess with a possibility of 2B, but I just don't see him doing that at the MLB level).

 

[tzill]

If all 4 of those guys are at their positions for a decade, don't we run into problems with how to keep Posey in the lineup? He can't catch 150 games for the next 5 years, and I can't see sitting Belt every time Posey needs to play first...

I wouldn't expect Buster to catch 150 games a year. More like 130. A few DH appearances and a couple of PH ABs.

 

[msgkings322]

I wouldn't expect Buster to catch 150 games a year. More like 130. A few DH appearances and a couple of PH ABs.

We'll see if his added bulk helps but I can't see him playing catcher year after year without hurting his performance in the 2nd half of those years.