The magic number is...

[Illinest]

19

The Pirates have 53 games left. Need to go 19 - 34 (.358) or better to break the losing streak.

Schedule shows 19 games upcoming against the Cubs, Padres, and Astros.

I've gone through and done a pessimistic prediction of the remaining 53 games. I came up with 24 - 29. I assumed that we'd take 2 of every 3 from the teams listed above but I assumed that we'd get beat in just about every other series including those against the Mets and the Brewers. My total was 86-76.

 

[magnumo]

Nice thread starter, Illinest..... very appropriate. (I know this comment is probably getting tiresome by now, but I tried to approve it and got that "spread it around" message again.)

Your prediction seems reasonable to me. I'm HOPING for better..... but even your reasonable but pessimistic prediction breaks the CLS. (Unfortunately, no one predicted 86-76 in the W-L Predictions thread.)

 

[thecrow124]

This is going to sound bad, but if we finish the season 86-76, I will be disappointed. Not because of the record, but because it would signify the second year in a row that we finished with a losing record (post ASB) after going into the All Star break above .500.

 

[Burgh Sports Rule]

I have to admit, that at the begining of this yr, all I wanted was for the Pirates to continue to improve & possibly break the 19 yr losing season streak.

Now though however, we have been playing so well, leading the WC & fighting for the division, that I have to say, that I want the playoff spot.

Be it the 1 gm WC play in gm or the NL Central Division Championship.

I feel that we are good enough to make the playoffs & I think this team certainly deserves it.

So, like Crow, while an 86 - 76 record would show GREAT progress for the Pirates. I would be disappointed with that record myself, as well.

I want the playoffs! LOL!

Burgh

 

[thedddd]

If they go 28-25 the rest of the way that is a 90 win season.
Now the question, is this team truly a 90 win team? I don't think so...

Like the others yeah I am going to be happy about 82 wins but if they don't make the WC I will disappointed since they been in it all year.

But the worst feeling will be if they go 18 - 35.

 

[magnumo]

Hey..... I agree with thecrow, Burgh Sports Rule, and thedddd, too.

86-76 would be disappointing and so would missing the playoffs. :sad:

But given where the Pirates have been over the last two decades, I can live with breaking the CLS, a 14-game improvement over last year, and increasing hope for 2013.

 

[steelparrot]

Before the season, I though our window was going to open in 2014, but I to am getting greedy and wanting the playoffs.

I can live with just breaking the streak as long as we dont collapse late.

 

[Illinest]

18

 

[pixburgher66]

I can taste it! I can taste the sweetness of a winning season. COME ON BOYS!

 

[Darkstone42]

I've gotten to the point that I'm looking more at the magic number of wins which will get us a playoff berth. I think that number is 31 right now.

 

[magnumo]

I'm not liking what I'm seeing here.

- Last year, at the 100-game mark, the Pirates were 53-47. In the final 62 games, they went 19-43.

- This year, at the 100-game mark, the Pirates were 58-42. Since then, they have gone 5-7. The pitching has deteriorated significantly. Except for Burnett, the starting rotation is showing major cracks..... and the bullpen has been FAR from sharp.

This team needs to get it's pitching act back together, pronto. Otherwise, playoff hopes are gonna be history.

 

[Illinest]

I'm not liking what I'm seeing here.

- Last year, at the 100-game mark, the Pirates were 53-47. In the final 62 games, they went 19-43.

- This year, at the 100-game mark, the Pirates were 58-42. Since then, they have gone 5-7. The pitching has deteriorated significantly. Except for Burnett, the starting rotation is showing major cracks..... and the bullpen has been FAR from sharp.

This team needs to get it's pitching act back together, pronto. Otherwise, playoff hopes are gonna be history.

I think Locke is ready and should help.

I also think your 100 game pick is kind of arbitrary. You included the final game of a series against Houston in which we won 3 and lost 1, and then we actually won the series against the Cubs and tied the Diamondbacks who are not (imho) such a bad team. Of course we shouldn't have lost this game to San Diego and we'd like to believe that we can compete with the Reds but in all honesty I don't think that our level of play has slipped off as much as you imply.

 

[magnumo]

I think Locke is ready and should help.

I also think your 100 game pick is kind of arbitrary. You included the final game of a series against Houston in which we won 3 and lost 1, and then we actually won the series against the Cubs and tied the Diamondbacks who are not (imho) such a bad team. Of course we shouldn't have lost this game to San Diego and we'd like to believe that we can compete with the Reds but in all honesty I don't think that our level of play has slipped off as much as you imply.

I tend to agree about Locke. Too bad they didn't give him a shot sooner.

The 100-game mark is indeed arbitrary. It just happens to be a nice round number..... as well as the high-point of the 2011 season.

Since the 100-game mark THIS season, Pirate pitching has given up the following run totals in the subsequent 12 games:

9
14
0 (Burnett)
4
3
5
2 (Burnett)
0 (Bedard)
10
6
6
9

That's a total of 68 runs in 12 games, for an average of 5-2/3 runs per game. I see that as significantly worse than earlier in the season. Excluding the two games started by Burnett, the staff has given up 66 runs in 10 games, for an average of 6.6 runs per game. The team's not going to win many games while giving up runs at that rate.

Obviously, the 6 games in the middle of that stretch (including the two shutouts) look pretty good. But the other 6 are awful.

Hey, they've come back before. I hope they come back again..... but Atlanta is now 2 games ahead of the Pirates for the top wild card spot (as well as 43 runs ahead in RD), and St. Louis, the Dodgers, and the Giants all are close behind, and St. Louis is a whopping 68 runs ahead of us in RD.

 

[Illinest]

but then again the team isn't likely to continue giving up 5.67 runs per game either. The pitching is better than that.

 

[SFNL]

This is very appropriate right now..

 

[dare2be]

Thar she blows. The Pirate ship is sinking fast.

 

[SFNL]

Sure as hell feels like it.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Pirates are hitting a similar rough patch to the one the Reds hit just last week or so. The question is not why (the answer to that question being that in baseball, sometimes things just don't go your way), but how will this young team respond to it.

Like Illinest said, it's unlikely that the pitching will continue to be as bad as it has been, and honestly, tonight notwithstanding, the offense has been fine, so we can expect a return to quality baseball in the near future.

Beyond that, I would rather this slump happen now than at the end of the season when we don't have time to make it up.

So how will this team respond? Will they fold, or will they fight? That's what's important.

 

[evolver115]

I have a hard time believing these last two games mean anything more than what both amounted to.. two losses. Three if you include the last game against Zona. Just relax. There isn't a dominating team in our division. St. Louis and Cincinnati haven't been playing all that great of late, either.

If they win today, or tomorrow against LA, you can forget about the last three nights. J-Mac worries me, other than that, I still feel good about their chances.

 

[evolver115]

17