The Lineup

[Darkstone42]

Now that Polanco is up, the position players are more or less set for the season, barring a move to bring in another first baseman, which seems unlikely. So what do you think the lineup should be?

Lineup optimization suggests that McCutchen should bat second, and in general, I agree with that, but batting him third and leaving Marte in the two spot might prove to be a significant boost to the latter, since he mashes the fastball and doesn't do so well on breaking pitches, at least by the eyeball test. Batting Marte between Polanco and McCutchen should get Marte a lot of fastballs to hit, which would allow his contact skill to really shine.

If Marte figures out how to hit everything consistently, he and McCutchen could be flipped, but for now, I think the benefit to Marte batting between Polanco and McCutchen outweighs the lineup optimization effect.

For cleanup, I would probably go with either Davis/Sanchez or Walker, then bat the other fifth. Especially in Davis's case, since he's so selective, and doesn't have a great contact skill on pitches on the edges, I think the only way he gets a chance to drive the ball and use his power is to have someone behind him who pitchers fear a little bit, and with the season Walker is having, he could be that guy. Gaby against lefties, though, is pretty close to a typical cleanup hitter, since he absolutely mashes them, especially the past couple years. And with Davis batting ahead of Walker, Walker should get plenty of RBI chances, since he'll have three guys with great on-base skills and another solid hitter in front of him.

Sixth should be Martin, since Alvarez is simply too inconsistent, and his splits are too drastic. I don't really like shuffling people around in the lineup too much based on the handedness of the pitcher, and I don't like the idea of allowing the other team to change things on us with their bullpen. Alvarez can bat seventh, and Mercer eighth.

Since Harrison's been so fantastic this year, though, I'd also look to get him a few starts per week, and he'd be my first pinch-hitter. Since Harrison can play anywhere, and since he seems to understand situational hitting and is a solid baserunner, I don't think it matters where in the lineup he hits. Just slot him wherever the guy he's spelling hits. When Tabata gets a start (I assume he'll be retained over Snider, both for the contract situation and because he's simply a better all-around player), he should bat down a bit, probably seventh, and the lineup adjusted accordingly. Stewart bats eighth when he starts, and Alvarez and Mercer move up accordingly.

So I guess my proposal is this:

Polanco
Marte
McCutchen
Davis/Sanchez
Walker
Martin
Alvarez
Mercer

 

[steelparrot]

Hard to argue with that lineup, we have a good offense with Polanco up and Mercer hitting.

 

[sychmd]

i think mercer will move up from 8. i think june is a lot closer than may was to his baseline.
i think he will pass up martin.

mercer could be a 2, but he doesn't get worse as a 7 or 8.
marte is as you said, and 2 is his optimal and he worsens as he drops down in the order.
polanco eventually will be a 3 and cutch will be leadoff.
unless davis really shows himself to be a real change keeper, or alvarez gets more consistent at defense, i would consider moving alvarez to 1B to platoon with gabby, and use harrison and mercer at SS and 3B. we need to find another 3B.
i know i am really reaching, but walker was playing 3B until alvarez came along, and he caught. it seems like his range at 2B is terrible and might play better at 3B assuming he has a catchers arm.

next time snider gets injured i would like to see dicksrson get a chance, then lamb and cut snider.

polanco
marte
cutch
walker
gabby/davis
mercer
martin LHP / alvarez RHP
alvarez LHP / martin RHP

 

[element1286]

Polanco
McCutchen
Walker
Davis/Gaby
Martin
Pedro
Marte
Mercer

 

[Illinest]

Polanco
Marte
McCutchen
Jose Abreu
Walker
Martin
Alvarez
Mercer

 

[sychmd]

abreu was the one guy they should have put their money into, i agree.

 

[Darkstone42]

Is Harrison in any way capable of playing shortstop? I thought he would have stopped hitting by now, but he hasn't, and it's going to be really tough to take him out of the lineup.

 

[sychmd]

i think mercer will be better providing consistent offense than alvarez.
also better defense.

let harrison play 3rd against LHP and occasionally spell an OF giving each one a rest every 14 games (like 12 games off per year). then spell walker and mercer once every 10 games and that gives harrison at least 7-9 out of 14 games. give him more of alvarez's if pedro doesn't become more consistent.

 

[element1286]

Is Harrison in any way capable of playing shortstop? I thought he would have stopped hitting by now, but he hasn't, and it's going to be really tough to take him out of the lineup.

Guess it depends on how much you believe in the bat. But defensively I'd say he is pretty weak at short.

 

[Darkstone42]

Well, the Bucs have statistically a very good offense. Elite (best) OBP, average power, and the second most stolen bases in the NL (perhaps the best overall baserunning team). If we can start getting some more extra base hits from guys like Alvarez and Davis, we could compete for best NL offense. As it stands right now, I'm pretty confident we're somewhere in the top 5 to top 3 range.

Perhaps the most encouraging thing is that we have among the highest BB% and among the lowest K% in the league, especially when taken in the context of previous seasons, and also considering the positive impact Polanco figures to have on those numbers.

If our pitching keeps doing what it has been, just being average, really, we should still be able to contend for the playoffs this year, even if it's an outside shot.

By the metrics, actually, we're the best offensive and worst defensive team in the NL. The eyeball test seems to agree with this assessment.

 

[thecrow124]

I wrote a long post in this thread that does not seem to have ever made it to the board.

To sum it up, Harrison should be playing 3B. Trade Alvarez for a starter, maybe get Cliff Lee with Philly picking up a significant portion of Lee's contract.

 

[Darkstone42]

I wrote a long post in this thread that does not seem to have ever made it to the board.

To sum it up, Harrison should be playing 3B. Trade Alvarez for a starter, maybe get Cliff Lee with Philly picking up a significant portion of Lee's contract.

Lee still isn't healthy yet. I don't know if we'd even be allowed to trade for him at this point. Although, if we want to keep the value of assets going the other way down, trading for him in between his rehab and reinstatement might be the way to go.

But a healthy Lee would be my first target, and I would probably take on the bulk of the salary, since we have significant room in our budget.

And I'm not sure yet how much I trust Harrison to keep up what he's been doing. He looks awfully good right now, though, and I would rather have him in the lineup than Alvarez at present, as well. But if we trade away Pedro, I want to be certain his replacement will produce, especially while we can still contend.

 

[thedddd]

With the current roster I think yesterdays lineup was their best.

I know McCutchen probably would be best at #2 then I guess slot Marte at #8? My thought is he would be able to run at free will if he gets on.

Polanco
Marte
McCutchen
Walker
Martin
Davis/Sanchez
Alvarez/Harrison
Mercer