Still can't hit

[Redsfan1507]

Well, I will have to disagree on one point- the Reds HAVE improved since Dusty- he managed the first winning Reds team in the prior decade. It wasn't improved because of him, the talent improved, and the Astros, Cubs, and lately the Brewers got worse in the NLCS. Pujols, Carpenter, Fielder and a few others left.

I appreciate Castellini bringing the team back to respectability, and Walt Jocketty is a big part of that. Dusty Baker, however, is a mistake. Unfortunately, for some unspoken or unknown reason, they haven't noticed, or aren't in a position to remedy it. Dusty's record shows when his teams do win, they do it on the backs of players acting alone, but can't typically make up for Dusty's shortcomings when stiffer competition in post season reduces the talent margin. He isn't terrible, he's just not top notch... and that's normally what Championship teams have to have. This team gas outgrown Dusty, and needs a better leader to be better. Until that is realized, I'm skeptical of better.

 

[JohnU]

Choo gets a hit and the only place Cozart can hit the ball is a line drive right on the bag.
Votto makes an out on a ball that is everything but a home run.

What exactly do we do now?

 

[JohnU]

This team is unwatchable lately.

 

[JohnU]

I see we have 1 hit through 5. Anybody else here still thinkin' this team has the horsepower to win anything?

Peralta has a whip of 1.53 and ERA of 5.00.

 

[packerzrule]

Peralta has a whip of 1.53 and ERA of 5.00.

not anymore

 

[JohnU]

not anymore

This is at least the third time they've seen Peralta.
He has potential but as usual, Dusty and his staff decided the scouting report was too much math to understand.

 

[Redsfan1507]

In not sure Fusty can read. Even if he could, he ain't listening to no one else anyway, hes got it all figured out... OBP is overated, walks just clog up the bases, the lineup is a salad, speed kills if you can use it, you strike out less hitting the first pitch into a DP, whoever plays CF has to lead off, and thalt shalt not steal doesn't just apply to Moses and Mike Leake. Dusty is a visionary with a stigmatism and cataracts.... and he's leading this team by the hand, down the garden path to what he hopes is his HOF induction testimony to mediocrity, in the dark. Walt has tried to give the man a roadmap, and a couple of flashlights. Much like giving Fusty a base stealer or a flame thrower, he doesn't how to use either one, and is likely to set himself on fire before he learns.

 

[chico ruiz]

i love it when people bring up the 2011 reds. a disappointing season to be sure. but, with baker or not, that team was never going to seriously contend. why am i writing about 2011? because i see it used as an example of a team that should have won, on this board, again and again. it simply is not true or accurate, in any way, as observed by any objective serious baseball fan. it's like memories have been erased, or maybe it's selective amnesia. that team was 2 games under .500 at the all-star break. gomes and stubbs were starting outfielders (both k machines). the only reason stubbs doesn't lead the tribe in k's is because mark reynolds is on the team. not having a consistent right-handed 30 / 90 power bat continues to be the reds biggest weakness since they built gabp. especially when you play the base to base game, which i despise, but that's another story. back to 2011 - bailey and cueto didn't make it out of spring training, and started 22 and 24 games respectively, with missed starts & various stints on the DL. arroyo had mononucleosis. rolen played a total of 60 games. cairo at 3rd. paul janish was the starting ss, with a out of shape back-up who had difficulty bending over for routine ground balls. in fact, so desperate were the 2011 reds, they had dontrelle willis as a starter for 3 months. that's like the rockies recently signing oswalt. cordero and hernandez were decidedly on the downsides of their careers. volquez was juicing and couldn't find the plate to the tune of regularly throwing 100 pitches by the 4th inning. while i'm on the subject; i'm starting to get suspicious of a particular red's recurring injury. he may not be juicing now, but that's one of the by-products of earlier use. i can't be the only one on this board that this has occurred to. speculation based on timeline and objective facts. regardless, 2011 is always a bad example. that team had a lot of injuries and just wasn't that good. dusty didn't rest anybody after the all-star break that year, because they played the cards. he gave rolen a day, and phillips a day, a week later. nothing unusual about that. you make it sound like baker sat votto, bruce, rolen, and phillips for a week. the weird conspiracy stuff is getting old 1507. there's plenty to question about dusty's on-field decisions w/o this contract, every other year, nonsense. you're insinuating that dusty is purposely trying to lose. as you have pointed out many times, he's not that smart. unable to keep two thoughts in his head at once is how you've described him. if that's true, there is no way he could pull off this elaborate ruse, of not trying to win, you've concocted. 2011? if the rotation had stayed healthy they may have been a first division team. that was a big "if" from opening day. that year's team had .500 written all over it by may 1, and it had nothing to do with baker. again, rolen's shoulder (right handed bat) just didn't hold up. stubbs, cairo, gomes, janish, valaika, renteria, sappelt, fisher, cordero, bray, horst, maloney, etc etc. sound like a championship roster (half of the starters & bullpen) to anyone? when has any serious baseball person ever confused jonny gomes with a good NL every day left-fielder? a dead red hitter that can disappear for a month. take the style of play out of the equation. there was no right-handed power bat, or (other than phillips) any good right-handed bat at all. i read hal mccoy's article yesterday. the excerpt below about the 2013 reds, and specific positions, has similarities to the above.

A COUPLE OF MAJOR LEAGUE scouts from other teams sat in the Great American Ball Park press box last week discussing the state of the National League Central. And what they said about the Cincinnati Reds had to have some ears burning in the home team dugout. “I don’t think the Reds are going to make it this year,” said one. “I don’t think they’ll catch the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates.” Said another, “You’re right. Too many holes. They are getting nothing from left field, third base, shortstop and catcher. That’s four out of eight spots.”

what's really different reds fans? other than cueto being injured again, the real strength of the 2012 and 2013 reds is pitching. it will have to continue to be for the reds to be successful until they add that legitimate RH bat with pop. again, pretty much nonexistent since great american insurance purchased naming rights. seriously. name one.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I've said I don't believe Dusty is trying to lose, Chico, repeatedly.

My point is that I agree,Dusty is not only not very smart, but hes also not very motivational, he's lazy too. Teams tend to take on the persona of the manager...and sense of urgency simply isn't there for Dusty in non contract years. He doesn't help his team much anytime, but does even less without the urgency of an expiring contract. The 11 roster, not much different than 10, and the 13 roster not much different than the 12, but different results, at least so far.

It isn't a conspiracy, it's complacency I see.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Cueto a juicer? I have a suspicion damned near everyone that is out of the country the offseason is or was. I also believe 80-90% of pro players including minor leaguers, have juiced, and that as much as 50 % still are. MLB has another opportunity with the Biogenisis fiasco. They need to issue 100 game suspensions for Braun and A-Rod, and Melky, as repeat offenders, and test them from now on, with a lifetime ban if found guilty again. A "random" policy where all players aren't tested, isn't a policy at all, IMO, and a "penalty" that effectively costs a player less than 10% of a long term 9 figure contract he couldn't have earned without juicing, isn't a deterrent. If there is any conspiracy in MLB, it's about PEDs...and the attempt by MLB to play down, deny and cover up as much truth about the global use, and knowledge of the use of PEDs.

 

[JohnU]

I guess I buy part or most of this analysis, and concur on the unnamed player and his sessions on the DL ... kinda makes you wonder what he's "flushing" out of his system. In any event, that's another topic.

But the part about the Reds not getting anything out of selected spots in the order -- all very true. The problem is how to define the fix. Replacing those players, if only just a couple, is going to be terribly costly. You will not find a SS with more defensive upside who's under team control than Cozart.

We could fix the catching problem but would end up with 2 Navarros, 1 Olivo, 1 Kendall and 1 Shoppach. Or one Corky and a kid who has less experience than Mesoraco.

We could trade half the bullpen and three rookies for a left fielder who is better than Yonder Alonso, who we could probably get back in exchange for Hannahan and cash.

If you upgrade at 3B, you have to spend a LOT of money. Frazier is a bonafide 3B ... just has Dustyitis with his hitting, as does Heisey, Cozart and nearly everyone else not named Votto.

Or we could teach these guys how to hit better.

The problem with replacement players is that the overall philosophy of the team is committed to doing all the things that make truly productive baseball nothing but guesswork. Small ball is a bit of a joke, because I see true small ball in Gary. The team has 9 home runs in 50 games and is playing .600 ball. To put it in perspective, Gary's right fielder has 10 triples.

Small ball in the big leagues is something truly different and no matter who we get, the same staid, vapid strategy is going to be part of the process.

Pitching is the bulwark of this operation but, to be fair and truly real honest, good pitching needs to get a lead. You win 83 percent of the time when you score first. In GABP, it's a much bigger bonus because the Reds get last bat. If the game is close, they get last bat. Last bat is a big deal.

But you have to make a pitcher throw the ball 60 times in 3 innings, gotta get base runners, move folks along, hit behind the runner, drive a ball into the gap, score runs. I'd rather have 5 doubles than 3 home runs -- any damned day. Yeah, this ain't Gary but it's not supposed to be this inconsistent.

I don't think it's a stretch to believe that you can win 4 games on a homestand and split on a road trip. Gotta do that ALL YEAR LONG. That hasn't happened and I don't see that it will.

The win today over the Brewers was a well-played Reds game. You can win pennants that way.

And the Reds have needed a legit RH bat with pop since 2010. Instead, we signed Cesar Izturis and Jack Hannahan.

 

[Redsfan1507]

There are a few factors that play into who is signed vs. traded for, or developed from the farm.

First, you only can sign available players, and they are by definition, not in the highest quality or demand, if par using journeymen,or they would be already signed and UN available. Second, when shopping at the discount or nearing expiration date meat department, you look at price. When you've chosen the cheapest among the least likely to make you ill, you may consider the menu you intend to serve it in. Lots of spices and other more attractive items on the dish is recommended to distract you from the less edible bites.

Hanahan, Izturis, Cairo, etc...and quite frankly, Ludwick when originally signed, were never meant to be featured items on the lineup menu. Periodically, you get a tasty bite, and make the mistake of serving a whole dish of it, usually resulting in diarrhea.

This team has to feed fans on sinewhat of a budget, and can only afford so many filet mignons. Frazier was a farm raised burger, and Cozart is fries. There ok for lunch, but anyone that counted on them for a high dollar dinner is woefully naive, or misrepresenting their product. There is some short shelf life quality sushi, a couple of prime cuts and fresh vegetables, and one or two well aged bottles of wine. Toss those ingredients to a chef that doesn't wash his hands, coughs into the pot, doesnt understand the difference in an appetiser and a dessert, and serves randomly with dirty silverware, and you have a problem pending, beyond the ingredients themselves.

I've lost my appetite for the Reds current menu, as it's served. I want better food, a better chef, or both.

 

[JohnU]

I also noticed that the Birds are lucky enough to get Fish and AAAstros for lunch. I keep thinking, gee ... not handing it to them, are they?

Then I realize the Reds went 2-4 against two teams with records that are almost as bad, half of those games at HOME.

 

[WvuDieHard]

OK Chico. I am buying into the lack of production from the LF, 3B, SS and catcher spot. I will agree with that assessment. It has been a year long gapping hole but I think we all agree the talent is clearly there at those positions. Unfortunately, all are hitting about 30-40 points under where they should be and all show signs of poor fundamental hitting techniques. That being the case, whose job is it to improve that? Can it be improved? The Reds need to start thinking about what needs to be done to fix this problem. Don't look at the fucking WL record and say but "we are 11 games over .500, what do you what". That is a copout attitude blindly avoiding the issues. I believe you have to ride the horse that got you to the Rodeo but you need better preparation or a new rider to win the Rodeo. So which is it? It surely is one or the other or a combo of both: Coaching and/or leadership?

 

[BigBlueNation111]

This team is unwatchable lately.

 

[chico ruiz]

who do you attribute the "we are 11 games over .500, what do you what" quote to, in your above post, wvu? the great debater governor rick perry? did baker or a reds player say that? or is that you projecting what you think the prevailing reds attitude is?

 

[Redsfan1507]

I don't know the best obtainable solution, but they have to acknowledge a problem before they will address one. LF has been a position the Reds have decided to punt on for years, and I have to believe its the least difficult to fill from within, so I don't blame them there. SS is addressed with Cozart, unless you buy into the ridiculous Dusty criteria that the SS also has to be a top if the order hitter. Catching has been a strong point for a few years, the trade of Grandal supports the Reds same assessment. Both are injured currently, and playing them hurt is a bad choice. 3B is a position lots of teams are struggling to get offense from, and at least Frazier isn't owed $100mil looking at a PED suspension. Cueto isn't right, but Latos, Bailey, Leake have all performed at or above expectations, and Arroyo has held his job. The bullpen is disappointing, except for Chapman, but isn't anything less than several front running teams are working with. Overall, It's not a situation that is improbable to win, but one that relies on better use of the players we have, especially in manufacturing some runs.

 

[JohnU]

who do you attribute the "we are 11 games over .500, what do you what" quote to, in your above post, wvu? the great debater governor rick perry? did baker or a reds player say that? or is that you projecting what you think the prevailing reds attitude is?

I can't answer for the OP, but I can say that I've heard and read that thought expressed by many people. It's still the prevailing attitude that the Reds are ... what ... third or so in W-L in the league ... so why are we bitching?

If IF IF the Reds were 51-40 against totally superior teams and were doing it with a totally inferior roster, that would be important.

There is a fair chance this team could hobble into the playoffs and could, with some margin of fortune, advance to the NLCS. There's more than a fair chance that won't happen. Honestly, I think Reds fans are about to join that list of fan groups that include the Cubs. A few years of that and that 2.4 million that will show up at GABP will become 1.7 million and we will have an aging Votto and a 68-94 record.

Being "11 over" at this point in the season and pretending it's a measure of success is completely outside the box of decent logic. It's not the record, it's the direction the team is going. These guys were supposed to be KICKING ASS this year, not fucking around in 3rd place, losing 4 out of 6 to teams that really ARE terrible.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals added to their lead because THEY are capable of beating crap teams.

 

[Redsfan1507]

It is possible to make the playoffs with a sub .500 record against plus .500 teams, with help from other minimum win teams in the hunt. It is very unlikely they win anything after getting to the playoffs though. At least with the aforementioned limitations, they wouldn't have demonstrated ability to do so anyway.

Wildcard teams winning the World Series isn't the same thing- especially if there were real reasons for earlier losses ( injuries, etc.), because most that have done that didn't limp or back into playoff spots, they had some recent momentum taking them into post season. There are lots of cliches bandied about about "just getting there, where anything can happen" but there is a lot more going for those teams than dumb luck. I do believe margins for error are also much smaller in post season, as they are generally against better teams. Our Reds often need some margin for error to win in those kinds of scenarios, unfortunately.

I think it's sad this team "needed Scott Rolen's leadership" in the first place, and also sorry it doesn't look like the job was finished by when he was, because I see this team as one that dies too often by their own stupidity, lack of preparation, and/ or the absence of square one fundamental execution that teams that win understand well. Arroyo and Choo have been around the block, but are free agents. Votto is an introvert. Dusty might as well be a wooden Indian standing in the dugout. Who's going to lead here ? In afraid this team is adrift.