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With Marte up and Wandy traded for I was anxious to put the challenges in perspective.
The Pirates are currently 56-42. In order to break the losing streak they need to go 26-38 or better. That's a win percentage of .406. The only two teams in the league who have a worse percentage than that are the Astros and the Padres. Coincidentally we'll be playing those two teams a bit in the near future.
The Pirates real win percentage is .571 and their pythagorean expectation is only two losses worse than that at 54-44. Any way you slice it I think it would take a pretty epic collapse to prevent this team from breaking the streak.
The longest consecutive losing season streak in major professional sports is in jeopardy. Rejoice.
We're doing so well that we need to talk about playoffs instead. According to ESPN's 'playoff chance' we're at 77%. We have control of the top wildcard and we're two games out of first. The Reds have been playing very well but Joey Votto is still injured and it's not out of question that they might go through a little losing streak before he comes back.
The schedule is favorable for us getting the wild card, as only the Reds have an easier schedule in the second half of the season. One thing I noticed that you may not want to hear - the Pirates final series is against Atlanta. If it comes down to it we fans might be facing some demons. It could be like the final boss in a video game.
The weapons in our arsenal:
1. Marte
2. Walker
3. McCutchen
4. Jones
5. McGehee
6. Alvarez
7. Barajas
8. Barmes
The bar is set low for Marte. He doesn't need to play particularly well and he'd still be an improvement over Presley and Tabata in left but I'm more optimistic than that.
There's still a problem in the middle of the order. Alvarez has played well but he hasn't earned clean-up. McGehee is slumping and Jones still should be protected from facing left-handers. I hate to say it but we still need Tabata to come around and earn his promotion back.
I like McKenry and Mercer for the bench. I think I like them better than the starters to be honest. Harrison and Sutton have their uses but I don't feel that this group of backups is a strength.
The starting rotation is legitimately deep but the top end isn't as intimidating as one would like. There's a huge difference between a rotation that's lead by Burnett and one that's lead by both McDonald and Burnett. If McDonald gets straightened out then our starting rotation is strong.
Correia is a great option for long relief. Lincoln, Hughes, Hanrahan and Grilli have been good for us. Even our bad relievers haven't been half bad. I'm looking forward to seeing Lincoln more in late innings.
I think that a serious playoff push still demands a middle of the order bat but I have to admit that I'll be happy enough if we just play out a winning season and look to improve again in 2013.
And as an aside - what we got from Derek Lee last year is EXACTLY what we need this year. I can't take it personally but it still annoys me that a guy who could've been exactly what we needed chose to stay at home when we offered him all of that arbitration money.
The Pirates are currently 56-42. In order to break the losing streak they need to go 26-38 or better. That's a win percentage of .406. The only two teams in the league who have a worse percentage than that are the Astros and the Padres. Coincidentally we'll be playing those two teams a bit in the near future.
The Pirates real win percentage is .571 and their pythagorean expectation is only two losses worse than that at 54-44. Any way you slice it I think it would take a pretty epic collapse to prevent this team from breaking the streak.
The longest consecutive losing season streak in major professional sports is in jeopardy. Rejoice.
We're doing so well that we need to talk about playoffs instead. According to ESPN's 'playoff chance' we're at 77%. We have control of the top wildcard and we're two games out of first. The Reds have been playing very well but Joey Votto is still injured and it's not out of question that they might go through a little losing streak before he comes back.
The schedule is favorable for us getting the wild card, as only the Reds have an easier schedule in the second half of the season. One thing I noticed that you may not want to hear - the Pirates final series is against Atlanta. If it comes down to it we fans might be facing some demons. It could be like the final boss in a video game.
The weapons in our arsenal:
1. Marte
2. Walker
3. McCutchen
4. Jones
5. McGehee
6. Alvarez
7. Barajas
8. Barmes
The bar is set low for Marte. He doesn't need to play particularly well and he'd still be an improvement over Presley and Tabata in left but I'm more optimistic than that.
There's still a problem in the middle of the order. Alvarez has played well but he hasn't earned clean-up. McGehee is slumping and Jones still should be protected from facing left-handers. I hate to say it but we still need Tabata to come around and earn his promotion back.
I like McKenry and Mercer for the bench. I think I like them better than the starters to be honest. Harrison and Sutton have their uses but I don't feel that this group of backups is a strength.
The starting rotation is legitimately deep but the top end isn't as intimidating as one would like. There's a huge difference between a rotation that's lead by Burnett and one that's lead by both McDonald and Burnett. If McDonald gets straightened out then our starting rotation is strong.
Correia is a great option for long relief. Lincoln, Hughes, Hanrahan and Grilli have been good for us. Even our bad relievers haven't been half bad. I'm looking forward to seeing Lincoln more in late innings.
I think that a serious playoff push still demands a middle of the order bat but I have to admit that I'll be happy enough if we just play out a winning season and look to improve again in 2013.
And as an aside - what we got from Derek Lee last year is EXACTLY what we need this year. I can't take it personally but it still annoys me that a guy who could've been exactly what we needed chose to stay at home when we offered him all of that arbitration money.
